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November 1st, 2017:

McRaven not running for Governor

Nov 1st, 2017
by Charles Kuffner.
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In case you were wondering.

William McRaven

Count out University of Texas Chancellor William McRaven as a potential challenger to Gov. Greg Abbott in 2018.

The retired Navy admiral said Monday in a statement that he has “no interest in running for governor or any other public office” after some speculation in Texas and nationally over his potential political future.

Most recently, Brent Budowsky, a former Democratic aide in the House of Representatives, penned a long column in The Hill urging Texas Democrats to “draft” McRaven, who oversaw the Navy Seal raid that killed Osama bin Laden, for governor.

“Texas Democrats should rise to the occasion and draft the best man for the mission, the best candidate for the post, the best leader who can lift the state and nation by serving in government as he served in uniform — with character, integrity and valor,” he wrote.

I missed Budowsky’s piece, as well as a behind the paywall column by Peggy Fikac about this, so it’s all news to me. Seems mostly like a case of wishcasting to me. Nothing wrong with that, but it’s highly unlikely to be anything more than a bit of publicity for whoever is being longed for. We’ve got Jeffrey Payne, and we may get one or more of Andrew White and Michael Sorrell. Barring any late surprises, that will have to do.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling to retire

Nov 1st, 2017
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

We’re up to three.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling

The powerful chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, U.S. Rep. Jeb Hensarling, a Dallas Republican, announced his retirement from Congress on Tuesday afternoon. He is currently serving his eighth term in the House.

“Today I am announcing that I will not seek reelection to the US Congress in 2018,” Hensarling wrote in an email to supporters. “Although service in Congress remains the greatest privilege of my life, I never intended to make it a lifetime commitment, and I have already stayed far longer than I had originally planned.”

While in a powerful perch with full GOP control of the legislative and executive branches, Hensarling faces a term limit preventing him from continuing his chairmanship at the end of his current term. Hensarling cited that as a reason for retiring, along with spending more time with is family.

Many in Texas saw the retirement coming, thanks to the term-limit issue. In September, Hensarling telegraphed to the Tribune that stepping down could be a possibility.

[…]

The seat to replace Hensarling will likely be fought in the GOP primary. It is a heavily Republican district that stretches from Dallas deep into the Piney Woods of East Texas.

In the speculation leading up to Hensarling’s retirement, a prominent name floated up as a potential successor: former U.S. Rep. Allen West, a Florida Republican who relocated to Texas after leaving Congress. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick appointed West to the Texas Sunset Commission in 2015.

He follows Sam Johnson and Beto O’Rourke in not running for re-election. Hensarling is terrible, but as you can see above, it can always be worse. The race will be settled in the primary, as CD05 went 63-34 for Trump in 2016 and 66-32 for Abbott i 2014. I fully expect some current legislators to at least look at this race, as there have not been that many opportunities to move up in recent years, and that may open up something at a lower level. In the meantime, be glad that this disciple of Phil Gramm is finally leaving, and hope for a marginal improvement going forward. The DMN, who first reported the story, has more.

2017 EV daily report: Day 8, and one more look at a way to guess turnout

Nov 1st, 2017
by Charles Kuffner.
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Here are the numbers through Monday. Now that we are in the second week of early voting, when the hours each day are 7 to 7, these reports arrive in my inbox later in the evening. Here are the daily totals from previous years:

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

And here’s a select comparison:


Year    Early    Mail    Total   Mailed
=======================================
2017   24,442   8,201   32,643   21,320
2015   73,905  23,650   97,555   43,279
2011   23,621   4,958   28,579   14,609
2007   19,250   4,353   23,603   13,589

The first Monday of Week 2 was busier than all preceding days, by a lot in 2015 and by a little in 2011 and 2007. Each day after that was busier still. This year, the second Monday was less busy than Thursday and Friday last week. I suspect an Astros hangover from Sunday night may have had something to do with that – Lord knows, traffic on I-45 in the morning and in the downtown tunnels at lunchtime were both eerily mild – in which case we ought to see more of an uptick going forward.

As for the other way of guessing turnout, which would be my third model for thinking about it, we have the May 2004 special city charter election, called by Mayor White to make adjustments to the pension funds, in the immediate aftermath of reports that recent changes had greatly increased the city’s financial obligations. A total of 86,748 people showed up for that election. I seriously doubt we’ll approach that, but my initial guesses on turnout for this year before I started looking at any data were 50,000 to 75,000, so it’s not ridiculously out of the question. Let’s file this one away for next May, when we may have to vote on the firefighter’s pay parity proposal.