Off the Kuff Rotating Header Image

November 21st, 2019:

Precinct analysis: 2019 Mayor’s race

I know you’ve been waiting for this. I have the draft canvass, I’ve been doing the Excel things, so let’s get down to it.


Dist  Lovell    King  Turner  Buzbee Boykins  Others
====================================================
A        217   3,002   6,481   7,061     646     727
B        114     523  13,274   1,211   1,778     846
C        888   7,259  22,661  12,619   1,536   1,015
D        181   1,127  16,608   2,650   4,095   1,007
E        224   6,134   7,452  14,920     890     727
F        122   1,216   4,773   3,610     517     691
G        366   9,436  11,316  14,493     602     619
H        310   1,573   7,721   3,824   1,167   1,181
I        203   1,086   5,829   3,176     955   1,061
J        117     876   3,402   2,367     392     449
K        204   1,647  12,383   3,739   1,669     698
						
A      1.20%  16.55%  35.74%  38.94%   3.56%   4.01%
B      0.64%   2.95%  74.80%   6.82%  10.02%   4.77%
C      1.93%  15.79%  49.29%  27.45%   3.34%   2.21%
D      0.71%   4.39%  64.70%  10.32%  15.95%   3.92%
E      0.74%  20.21%  24.56%  49.16%   2.93%   2.40%
F      1.12%  11.13%  43.67%  33.03%   4.73%   6.32%
G      0.99%  25.62%  30.72%  39.35%   1.63%   1.68%
H      1.97%   9.97%  48.94%  24.24%   7.40%   7.49%
I      1.65%   8.82%  47.35%  25.80%   7.76%   8.62%
J      1.54%  11.52%  44.75%  31.13%   5.16%   5.91%
K      1.00%   8.10%  60.88%  18.38%   8.21%   3.43%

I combined all the remaining candidates into the Others column. I should note that Sue Lovell actually received one vote fewer than Victoria Romero, so I suppose there’s an argument for changing whose totals get displayed and whose get aggregated, but we all know who Lovell is and we have no idea who Romero is, so here we are. Looking at this, you have to wonder how it is that Sue Lovell thought it was a good idea to enter the race. Whatever it was she was hoping to accomplish, she didn’t.

Next, there’s Dwight Boykins, the guy that ran as the champion of the firefighters. Remember how much noise there was over the Battle Royale between Mayor Turner and the firefighters, whose proxy in this race was Dwight Boykins? Turner outscored Boykins four to one in Boykins’ own district, and nearly eight to one overall. Not much of a fight, was it? The firefighters have now settled on Tony Buzbee for the runoff, while the rest of labor has lined up behind Mayor Turner. As above, whatever the firefighters hoped to accomplish this election, you have to say they didn’t.

Is this finally the end of Bill King? After getting 66K votes in November of 2015, he fell short of 34K in 2019. Of course, in 2015 he was the default Republican choice, having benefited from Oliver Pennington’s premature exit from that race. Here, he was completely overshadowed by Buzbee’s flash, cash, and trash. He couldn’t even beat Turner in the three Republican Council districts. I feel like there’s more I should be saying here, but honestly these numbers speak for themselves.

As for Buzbee, he did lead the pack in Districts A, E, and G, though he didn’t beat Turner by much in A or G. As noted before, there are no runoffs in E or G, so Buzbee is on his own to get those voters out again in December. Buzbee trails Turner by about 45K votes, while King trailed him by about 19K in 2015. I have no idea how Buzbee makes up that deficit, and if he’s really going to spend whatever it takes, I haven’t seen evidence of it yet. He ran a lot of ads during live sporting events in Round One, so we’ll see if he’s on the air during this weekend’s football games.

That leaves Turner, who did what the polls suggested he would do. He did what he needed to do where he needed to do it, with a much stronger showing in District C than he had four years ago. He’s got Democrats united behind him, and he should have sufficient funds to get his voters out again. If he wants to think big, he should be pondering how he can help some of those Dems in At Large runoffs get across the finish line as well. I’ll be looking at those races in the coming days. The one setback is the delay of the District B runoff, but there is still a runoff in HISD II, which covers a lot of the same turf, so that may mitigate the effect. Let me know what you think.

District B runoff still up in the air

Hoo boy.

Cynthia Bailey

The runoff in the contested District B race for Houston city council almost certainly will be decided with a special election, due to an election contest filed by the third-place finisher, officials said Wednesday.

Renee Jefferson-Smith, who missed the runoff by 168 votes, filed the contest in district court last Friday, essentially forcing election officials to hold off on the runoff, according to Assistant County Attorney Douglas Ray.

The Texas Election Code says a contested runoff cannot be held until there’s a final judgment in the matter.

“It’s as clear as any law I’ve seen,” Ray said.

The county, which has to send out mail ballots for the runoffs Thursday, is printing them Wednesday without the District B race. There are 12 other city council runoffs, set to be decided Dec. 14.

See here and here for the background. As the story says, Jefferson Smith has appealed the dismissal of her lawsuit from last week, which is why this is still ongoing. The law in question reads as follows:

Sec. 232.007. RUNOFF NOT HELD UNTIL FINAL JUDGMENT. (a) A runoff election for a contested office may not be held until the judgment in the contest becomes final.

(b) This section does not affect the conduct of a regularly scheduled runoff for another office that was voted on at the same election as the contested office or at an election held jointly with the election in which the contested office was voted on.

That is indeed quite clear, and I have since received a notification from the County Clerk’s office that:

“Due to a legal challenge, the City of Houston Council Member District B race will not appear on the December 14, 2019 Runoff ballot. This will not affect any of the other races or the election procedures the Harris County Clerk’s Office carries out.”

So to sum up, we have the city of Houston/HISD/HCC runoffs minus District B on December 14, we have the HD148 special election runoff on January 28, we have the 2020 primaries on March 3, and somewhere in there we will also have a stand-alone runoff in District B. As Tommy Lee Jones said in The Fugitive, What. A. Mess.

A later version of the story has a few more details.

Jay Aiyer, a public policy consultant and former political science professor at Texas Southern University, called the delay unprecedented.

“You’ve never had anything where a runoff election itself is just left off,” he said.

City taxpayers will have to foot the bill for the additional election, according to the mayor’s office. Both Ray and Nicole Bates, an attorney for Jefferson-Smith, said it is possible the special election could be held Jan. 28, when a runoff for the open House District 148 seat is scheduled to take place, if the lawsuit is resolved by then.

Alan Bernstein, Mayor Sylvester Turner’s director of communications, said the city would hold the special election on Jan. 28, but would support an earlier date if the suit contesting the election is resolved before then.

[…]

Oliver Brown, Bailey’s attorney, said Jefferson-Smith is arguing the same case in a different forum because she did not like the earlier judge’s ruling.

“The problem is, they’re not doing an actual contest. They’re still just trying to challenge (Bailey’s) eligibility,” he said.

Tarsha Jackson, the first-place finisher who also is in the runoff, has said voters knew about Bailey’s criminal past and said she should be able to continue in the race. Jackson said Wednesday she was disappointed in the delay.

“What’s happening right now is just a prime example of what’s been happening to District B forever. We’re a marginalized and disenfranchised community,” Jackson said. “We have been left behind in this election. The people should be able to go out and vote on the 14th.”

While Jackson and Bailey seemed entrenched in the runoff after the initial court ruling, Aiyer said it is possible that could change in the continuing lawsuit.

“The one thing that seems to be unclear is when you have a special election, who will be the participants in the election,” Aiyer said. “I don’t know if, for example, Bailey is declared ineligible, that doesn’t really presuppose that (Jefferson-Smith) should be in the runoff.”

The delay also calls into question who — if anyone — will represent District B between when Jerry Davis’ term ends on Dec. 31 and the election is held.

While I agree with the interpretation of the law here, I’m still bothered by the way this has all played out. I will say again, the right time to have filed this lawsuit was in September, after the filing deadline passed and before mail ballots were printed. Courts are often reluctant to get involved in electoral disputes before the election, but this was a straightforward question on the law, and no one can claim that waiting till after the election was less messy or controversial. To add onto what Jay Aiyer says at the end here, I’m also bothered by the idea that Renee Jefferson Smith could benefit now from Cynthia Bailey being kicked out of the runoff. We have no way of knowing what might have happened in the November election if Bailey had not been on the ballot. Who’s to say that Alvin Byrd (1,630 votes to Jefferson Snith’s 2,137) or Karen Kossie-Chernyshev (1,408 votes) would not have benefited more from Bailey’s absence? We should have resolved this before any votes were cast. That’s not an option any more, and it’s not fair to any of the candidates involved, never mind the voters themselves. If nothing else, I hope we clarify the law in question in 2021. KUHF has more.

MLB has had its eye on the Astros

The story develops.

Early in the 2019 season, Major League Baseball instructed video monitors working in Minute Maid Park to listen for banging sounds emanating from the Astros’ dugout, a person with knowledge of the directive said Monday.

The Astros are alleged to have stolen signs during their World Series-winning season of 2017 using a system that included players banging on trash cans to signal certain pitches. That MLB directed those working at Minute Maid Park to listen for such sounds is an indication the league already had an eye on Houston.

Conversely, a video monitor who worked in another American League ballpark told the Chronicle they were not “implicitly told” to listen for any sounds from either dugout.

MLB began investigating the Astros last week after former Houston pitcher Mike Fiers outlined how the team stole signs in 2017, using a camera in center field and a video screen in the tunnel next to the dugout, then banging on trash cans.

[…]

The Athletic’s report detailed alleged wrongdoing in 2017 only. Whether the Astros continued their practices into 2018 or 2019 remains unconfirmed. Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said he was “confident that in general, we did things right and we try and follow the rules.”

The team has said it is cooperating with MLB’s investigation.

“Beginning in the 2017 season, numerous clubs expressed general concerns that other clubs were stealing their signs,” MLB said last week. “As a result of those concerns, and after receiving extensive input from the general managers, we issued a revised policy on sign stealing prior to the 2019 season. We also put in place detailed protocols and procedures to provide comfort to clubs that other clubs were not using video during the game to decode and steal signs.”

Part of that revised policy included a group of video monitors at each ballpark responsible for ensuring clubs adhered to the new regulations. Each game last regular season had at least one person around both the home and visiting dugouts monitoring the replay room, clubhouse, tunnel and any other area.

“What they told us was we were essentially looking for people who were using technology to steal signs,” said one video monitor.

One person familiar with the Astros’ video monitoring said those who worked at Minute Maid Park were instructed “early on” to “make sure there was no one in the dugout banging.”

See here for the background. We don’t know the extent of what may or may not have happened yet, and MLB hasn’t said when their investigation will end. What we do know is that if MLB does conclude the Astros were breaking the rules, the penalties could be harsh.

Commissioner Rob Manfred has “no reason to believe” Major League Baseball’s ongoing investigation into electronic sign-stealing will involve any club aside from the Astros — a franchise that could feel the full authority of Manfred’s power under the major league constitution.

Manfred has levied only one public punishment for electronic sign-stealing — an undisclosed fine to the Boston Red Sox during the 2017 season. That same year, the Astros are alleged to have electronically stolen signs with a center-field camera at Minute Maid Park, actions that are now the center of MLB’s investigation.

“Any allegation that relates to a rule violation that could affect the outcome of a game or games is the most serious matter,” Manfred said Tuesday. “It relates to the integrity of the sport. In terms of where we are, we have a very active, what is going to be a really, really thorough investigation ongoing. Beyond that, I can’t tell you how close we are to done.”

When he issued the fine to the Red Sox in 2017, Manfred warned any future violations were subject to “more serious sanctions, including the possible loss of draft picks.”

MLB’s most recent revised policy on sign-stealing promised “progressive discipline” for rule-breakers, “including fines, suspensions, and penalties or loss of benefits.” The benefits, according to the policy, included draft picks and international signing penalties.

“I’m not going to speculate on what the appropriate discipline is,” Manfred said. “That depends on how the facts are established at the end of the investigation. The general warning that I issued to the clubs I stand by. It certainly could be all those things, but my authority under the major league constitution could be broader than those things as well.”

Nothing to do but wait and see. Who says the offseason is dull?

Texas blog roundup for the week of November 18

The Texas Progressive Alliance had no idea it was pronounced “keev” as it brings you this week’s roundup.

(more…)