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More on that KHOU poll

If you say so.

Once considered a front-runner, support for Houston City Council member Peter Brown appears to be slipping in independent polling data released to 11 News.

Rice University professor Bob Stein, who conducted earlier polls for KHOU-TV and KUHF Radio, used an “interactive voice response” system this week to re-interview many of the likely voters who took part in the first rounds of polling, which KHOU and KUHF released this week. Stein also used the IVR system to question new groups of registered Houston voters who described themselves as likely to vote in the mayoral election.

“There is a closing of the gap between all of the candidates,” Stein said. “It’s still very wide open.”

11 News is not releasing specific numbers or candidate rankings based on the IVR poll, because it is not considered part of our official polling package. Stein said the data indicate that support for controller Annise Parker and former city attorney Gene Locke has surged over the last two weeks, often at the expense of Brown, who has spent millions of dollars on a sustained television advertising campaign.

I don’t even know what there is to say about this. The original poll was based on a sample that I find questionable, especially given the low turnout projections. I’m not sure what there is to learn by asking followup questions of people who were – to my mind, anyway – unlikely to vote in the first place. Without being able to see the data itself, I’m even more dubious. I can certainly believe that Brown’s support is soft, I just don’t think this is telling me something I didn’t already know.

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3 Comments

  1. Michael says:

    With the predicted low turnout, how can anyone develop a strong poll to predict this election? These polling numbers are about as accurate as a morning weather forecast on one of our local TV stations.

  2. John says:

    While the whole campaign has gone negative, Brown seems to have done so more intensely, which makes me think whatever #s he and his staff are looking at are showing him not far ahead (if at all) and with not terribly committed support. It’s an issue for him, as both Locke and Parker have their extremely dedicated core constituencies who are simply not going to vote for anybody else, whereas Brown does not.

  3. Baby Snooks says:

    The Republicans like him. Must be the Schlumberger fortune. They see the words oil fortune and assume someone must be a Republican.

    That is really the wild card. How many Republicans vote and how many Republicans vote for Peter Brown. They don’t trust Hispanics even if they are anti-illegal immigrant and they only like African-Americans if they have a (r) beside their name. And even then only for certain positions. They have to be watched you know. Along with everyone else.

    Rumor has always been someone convinced him to run to pull votes and money away from Annise Parker. Which he did. The problem is no one realized so many people would like him and support him. Particularly the Republicans. Oh, well, like they say, the best laid plans of mice and money men.