Off the Kuff Rotating Header Image

February 7th, 2023:

A very early thought about turnout in the 2023 Houston election

Before I begin, please note that all of this involves a lot of back-of-the-envelope math and more than a few assumptions made along the way. The number of registered voters in Harris County, and thus in Houston, will certainly change between now and November. And of course, every election is different, with candidates and exogenous conditions having an effect on who does and doesn’t vote. So keep all that in mind as we proceed.

We have an open seat Mayoral race this year, and history says those are our biggest ones. For context, here are the Harris County turnout numbers from the last three open Mayoral races:


Year     Votes  Registered  Turnout
===================================
2015   268,872     979,401   27.45%
2009   178,777     935,073   19.12%
2003   298,110     955,205   31.21%

I should note that in 2003 there was the Metro referendum, and in 2015 there was the (unfortunate and infuriating) HERO repeal referendum, in addition to four Harris County ballot propositions. Having a high profile referendum on the ballot helps drive extra turnout. We will have a couple of Houston referenda on the ballot this November so the higher end is more likely to me, but there is a range and a lower end is possible as well. Unlikely, to my mind, but I want to be transparent here.

Now let’s look at Houston voter registration numbers. I’m limiting myself to Harris County, which accounts for about 97% of Houston election totals. I don’t have this data for every year, but we can do with a sample:


Year     Houston     Harris   Share
===================================
2003     955,205  1,786,767  53.46%
2009     935,073  1,881,112  49.71%
2015     979,401  2,054,717  47.67%
2018   1,082,506  2,307,654  46.91%
2019   1,085,813  2,329,277  46.62%
2022   1,133,155  2,543,162  44.56%

As noted, there will be a different voter registration figure this fall, likely a bit higher for each but with more growth in the non-Houston part of Harris County. This is close enough for our purposes.

So what does this suggest for 2023 turnout? The main thing I want to point out is just that we have more voters in Houston now than we did in 2015. There hasn’t been nearly as much growth in Houston as there has been in the non-Houston parts of Harris County, but it’s still up over 150K from 2015. As such, if we have the same rate of turnout as we did in 2015, we would see over 311K Houston voters from Harris County, or more than a 40K increase from 2015. The Fort Bend and Montgomery share will likely be in the 5-6K range total, but even without that we’d easily have a new high total for a Houston election. If we have the same turnout rate as we did in 2003, we’re looking at over 353K voters from Harris County. That’s an enormous increase over 2015. We only need 26.3% turnout in 2023, based on the 2022 registration numbers, to equal the number of voters from 2003.

What then is the argument for getting the higher end of turnout this year? There will be a couple of referenda on the ballot, and maybe possibly an HISD bond referendum. There’s already a lot of money in the campaigns, which if nothing else should mean plenty of advertising. The argument that compels me is just simply that the last four even-number elections we’ve had have featured historically high turnout. We broke the record for total numbers of voters in any election in 2016, then shattered it in 2020. We destroyed the record for turnout in a non-Presidential year in 2018, and then even though turnout was down relative to it in 2022, it was still easily the second-highest off-year total, both in absolute numbers and percent of registered voters. We’re used to higher levels of turnout now. Why shouldn’t that continue in the first open-seat Mayoral race since then?

Like I said, I’m making some assumptions here, any or all of which could be wrong. My point is simply that it would not take anything like a historic turnout percentage to produce a record number of total voters, just simply because there are more voters now. Another way of looking at this is that there will be a lot of people who haven’t voted in a prior Mayoral election but will be participating this year, both because of the increase in registrations and the usual comings-and-goings over the years. Campaigns maybe ought to take that into account.

Now we have a gambling bill filed by a Republican Senator

Maybe this is the gambling expansion bill that those who want gambling expansion have been waiting for.

Sen. Lois Kolkhorst

Advocates for legalizing online sports betting in Texas debuted new bills Monday that take a narrower approach than they did in 2021 — and feature a new author in the state Senate who is a Republican.

The involvement of Sen. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, who is carrying the legislation, is notable because she is an ally of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who is seen as the biggest hurdle to expanding gambling in Texas. The previous sports-betting bill filed in the last legislative session was carried by Democrat and got virtually no traction in the GOP-led Senate.

Like it was in 2021, this year’s legislation is backed by the Texas Sports Betting Alliance, a coalition of pro sports teams in the state, racetracks and betting platforms. Members include heavy hitters such as the Dallas Cowboys, the Dallas Mavericks, the Houston Astros, the San Antonio Spurs, the PGA Tour and DraftKings. Former Gov. Rick Perry is also working with the alliance on the issue this year.

The legislation would ask voters to decide in a November election whether they want to legalize what the alliance calls “mobile sports betting,” or wagering on games online. That is most commonly done through phone applications like DraftKings.

The major difference from the 2021 bills is that the latest legislation does not legalize in-person sports betting, which would allow bets to be taken at the facility where a team plays. This change was largely expected as the alliance prepared for this session with branding that emphasized “mobile sports betting” and protecting Texans’ data.

“I introduced SB 715 and SJR 39 because Texas needs to bring security and safety into the world of mobile sports betting,” Kolkhorst said in a statement. “It makes sense to reign in all of the illegal offshore betting and keep sports wagering funds here in Texas.”

Like the 2021 legislation, the latest sports-betting bills would put a 10% tax on its revenue.

While Kolkhorst is carrying the legislation in the Senate, state Rep. Jeff Leach, R-Plano, is authoring it in the House. The 2021 House author, Rep. Dan Huberty, R-Houston, did not seek reelection. Leach joint-authored Huberty’s proposal.

State Sen. Juan “Chuy” Hinojosa, D-McAllen, carried the legislation in the Senate last time. He has signed on as a joint author to the most recent bill from Kolkhorst.

The Sports Betting Alliance is one of two major camps pushing to expanding gambling in Texas this session. The other is a group led by the gaming empire Las Vegas Sands, which wants to legalize casinos in addition to sports betting.

See here for the background. As I said then, if Sen. Kolkhorst is filing a bill like this she is almost certainly doing it with the consent of Dan Patrick. Doesn’t mean Patrick will support it himself, but it seems likely to me that he’ll let it proceed on its own, which is surely more than any previous attempt has gotten. Whether it makes it through or not, he can say it’s what his caucus wanted.

That other story came out over the weekend, and it’s about an alliance between casino interests and horserace tracks, which honestly feels like a throwback to the Joe Straus days to me. I didn’t write about it because I didn’t think it moved the needle at all, and I still don’t. If anything, it could be the death knell for the Kolkhorst bill, even though its bill (filed by Republican Rep. Charlie Geren in the House) makes mention of sports betting. My guess is that the casinos would like sports betting to take place at their house, preferably only at their house, and that will be the source of some (maybe lots of) friction. Until there’s a Republican Senate version of that bill, I don’t see Patrick backing off on his traditional opposition to that form of expanded gambling.

Of course on the other hand you have Greg Abbott and Dade Phelan expressing their interest in “destination-style” resort casinos. Which could coexist with sports betting as in the Kolkhorst bill, or it could become a huge obstacle if as mentioned the casinos insist that all sports betting should take place at casinos. Maybe everyone gets on the same page and it’s enough to even overcome Dan Patrick. Or maybe the casinos get into a cage match with DraftKings et al and in the end it’s the same bloody and expensive failure these efforts have always been. I will continue to lean towards failure until proven otherwise, but I will admit that’s a shakier proposition now than it has usually been.

Looking like no early entry into the SEC for UT and OU

It’s always about the money. Which, to be fair, is pretty substantial in this case.

The negotiations for Oklahoma and Texas to leave the Big 12 a year early and join the SEC in 2024 have stalled and a deal is not expected to come to fruition, sources told ESPN on Friday morning.

After weeks of negotiations, Texas and Oklahoma are still slated to join the SEC in 2025. Sources said the parties couldn’t come to terms amid a complex negotiation involving two schools, two networks (ESPN and Fox) and the Big 12.

Sources said the sides couldn’t agree on how to create equitable value for what Fox would lose in 2024 — the equivalent of seven football games featuring Oklahoma and Texas that command premium advertising.

The negotiations heated up over the past few days, with the Big 12 meetings late this week doubling as an unofficial deadline to get a deal done.

The timeline in play — the 2024 season — leaves some ambiguity and small potential for a Hail Mary revival, but the strong expectation remains that Oklahoma and Texas will play in the 14-team Big 12 in 2023 and 2024.

“There’s no formal timeline or brink from which you can’t come back,” an industry source said. “But this is where things are right now — a deal is unlikely.”

To be fair, UT and OU were insisting they would remain in the Big XII through 2025, despite the obvious reasons why they’d want to get out earlier than that. I certainly thought that they would find a way to make that happen. The fall of 2024 is still a ways off so anything could happen, but it’s not looking too likely. For the Coog fans out there, that means you’ll get two shots at them on the football field before they buzz off. Better make the most of it while you can.