So the track for Ike has shifted eastward once again, and it’s now headed towards Galveston. SciGuy presents two possible scenarios.
1. Hurricane Alicia-redux, with a stronger surge. This scenario is most likely if the official forecast of a 120-mph hurricane hitting Galveston Island holds up.
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2. Near-miss to the east. This is the realistic best-case scenario for Houston. Here’s why it’s possible.
The latter is a lot like the path Hurricane Rita took in 2005. The result would be about the same, both for Houston and for Beaumont/Port Arthur. I’ll say it again: It really sucks to realize that rooting for the storm to stay away from you means you’re rooting for it to cream someone else. I’m hoping as hard as I can that Ike continues to not intensify any more. Please, Cat 2 or less. It’s not so much to ask, is it?
I don’t know how accurate this is, but the site HoustonHideFromTheWInd.org has projections of maximum wind speed for different parts of the city. As things stand now, my ZIP code would max out at winds of 79 MPH. The farther east you are, the higher the winds you’ll get.
Really, even with a direct Cat 3 hit, given how fast this storm is moving, the worst effect Houston will likely see is power outages and localized flooding. It’s the storm surge that will be the real devastator, and that will hit the coastal areas the hardest. Paul Burka has a discussion of this from the standpoint of the insurance industry. Check it out.
Has Sugarland been evacuated?
Ike covers a larger area than Alicia did, though, and it looks like he will have higher sustained winds:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/090240.shtml?table#contents
The predicted landfall is still West Galveston, but we’ll have another update in a few minutes.
Conne – No, it hasn’t. Only places in the surge zone have been evacuated, and that does not include any part of Fort Bend County. I know some people who evacuated to Fort Bend, in fact. They’ll get wind and rain, but nothing too bad.