Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders holds substantial leads in the two largest states to vote in next week’s Super Tuesday lineup of primaries, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in California and Texas.
In Texas, Sanders holds 29% support among likely primary voters, former Vice President Joe Biden has 20%, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg stands at 18% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is at 15%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. Sanders (+14) and Bloomberg (+13) have posted the largest gains since a December CNN poll, while Biden has slipped 15 points. Warren has held roughly even.
The California results suggest the same four contenders hold the most support, though Sanders stands well ahead of the three contending for second place. Sanders holds 35% support, Warren is at 14%, Biden is at 13% and Bloomberg is at 12%. Sanders’ support in the state has climbed 15 points since December, while Biden’s has slid eight points. Bloomberg has gained seven.
Decisive wins for a single candidate in California and Texas — states which will award more than 600 of the 1,991 delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination — could change the tenor of a race that has at times seemed headed for a protracted fight.
The December polls in the two delegate-rich states had shown Biden ahead in Texas with Biden, Sanders and Warren all vying for a win in California. Since then, most national polling has also shown Sanders taking hold of the frontrunner slot in the Democratic nomination battle, while his win in the Nevada caucuses boosted him to a lead over his rivals in the delegate count so far.
The California poll is here, and the Texas poll, which is obviously of greater interest to me, is here. I blogged about that December poll, which showed Biden leading Bernie 35-15, here. I’m not sure that I buy the huge swing, but Bernie has polled fairly well lately, and Mike Bloomberg has taken some support away from Biden, so it’s certainly possible.
Of greater interest:
A1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
App Dis No op Total Respondents February 22-26, 2020 43% 49% 7% December 4-8, 2019 42% 50% 8% October 9-13, 2018 41% 50% 10% Registered Voters February 22-26, 2020 47% 50% 3% December 4-8, 2019 48% 47% 5% October 9-13, 2018 47% 48% 6%(Respondents who are registered to vote, N=1,003)
Q11. If (NAME) were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party’s candidate, for whom would you be more likely to vote?Biden Trump Other Neither No op Feb. 22-26, 2020 48% 47% 1% 2% 2% Dec. 4-8, 2019 47% 48% * 2% 3% Bloom Trump Other Neither No op Feb. 22-26, 2020 46% 47% * 3% 4% PeteB Trump Other Neither No op Feb. 22-26, 2020 47% 48% 0% 2% 4% Dec. 4-8, 2019 43% 50% * 2% 6% Amy K Trump Other Neither No op Feb. 22-26, 2020 45% 48% 0% 2% 5% Bernie Trump Other Neither No op Feb. 22-26, 2020 46% 48% * 3% 3% Dec. 4-8, 2019 43% 50% 1% 3% 3% Warren Trump Other Neither No op Feb. 22-26, 2020 47% 47% * 2% 4% Dec. 4-8, 2019 44% 51% 1% 2% 2%
That part’s pretty exciting, and an improvement in fortune for all of the candidates as Trump’s approval ratings remain lousy. I’m sure Joe Biden in particular would like everyone who hasn’t voted yet to see these numbers. I’m still not sure I buy this big a Bernie surge, but we’ll know soon enough.
I’m not against Sanders (I voted for him in 2016, but not this time around), but 2016 and 2020 presidential primaries seem to be perfect examples of how ranked choice voting would do a better job in electing candidates. In GOP 2016 and DEM 2020 the front runners have a lot of opposition from even their own party, and a lot of the 2nd choice/3rd choice get drowned out. I sometimes get the sense that primaries are just a big reality show intended to vote people off the island rather than result in someone who everybody wants for president. The NYT editorial a few weeks ago was well-timed.
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