UH-Hobby: Trump 50, Biden 45

Here’s a poll result that stands in contrast to the others we have seen lately.

President Donald Trump is leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by more than five points among likely voters in Texas, according to a poll released Monday by the Hobby School for Public Affairs at the University of Houston.

The poll, conducted between Oct. 13 and Oct. 20, found 50% of voters said they already had or will vote for Trump, while 44.7% said they had or will vote for Biden.

Trump and running mate Mike Pence carried Texas by nine points in 2016.

The Republican edge held for statewide contests down the ballot, including for U.S. Senate, Texas Railroad Commission and three statewide judicial races covered by the poll.

“Record turnout in early voting clearly shows the state’s Democrats are energized, but at least at the top of the ticket, that enthusiasm appears unlikely to overcome the Republican advantage among men, Anglos and older voters,” said Renée Cross, senior director of the Hobby School. “In fact, we found the Republican candidate leading by wider margins in statewide races farther down the ballot.”

Among the findings:

  • More than 40% had already voted at the time of the poll. Biden held a substantial edge among those voters, leading Trump 59% to 39%. Almost two-thirds of those who plan to vote on Election Day said they will vote for Trump.
  • Incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn leads Democratic challenger MJ Hegar 48.9% to 41.6%.
  • Republican Jim Wright is leading in the race for an open seat on the Texas Railroad Commission, with 46.8% of the vote; Democrat Chrysta Castañeda has 38.4%.
  • Biden holds a slight edge among women, 49.5% to 46%. Trump is preferred among men by a notably larger margin, 54.3% to 39.5%.
  • While 63% of Anglos support Trump, and 87% of African-American voters back Biden, the gap is narrower among Latino voters: 56% support Biden, and 38% back Trump.
  • Republican Nathan Hecht leads Democrat Amy Clark Meachum 47.5% to 40% for Texas Supreme Court chief justice. For Supreme Court Justice Place 6, Republican Jane Bland leads Democrat Kathy Cheng 49.2% to 40.1%.
  • Republican Bert Richardson leads Democrat Elizabeth Davis Frizell 48.2% to 38.3% for Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Judge Place 3.

The full report is available on the Hobby School website.

The Hobby School did a primary poll in February and one Trump-Clinton poll around this time in 2016; they also did a couple of polls of Harris County in 2016. As noted in their introduction, this was a YouGov poll, so similar in nature to the UT/Texas Tribune polls. As I alluded to in the headline, this is the first poll we’ve had in awhile that was this positive for Trump, and it especially stands in contrast with that UT-Tyler poll that came out over the weekend. What does one make of this?

You can peruse the poll data as you wish. I’m going to note one thing that really stood out to me. The following is a list of how Independent voters went in each of the last nine polls over the past month for which that data was available (in other words, skipping the Morning Consult polls). See if you can see what I saw:

Poll      Biden   Trump
UH-Hobby     34      51
UTT/DMN      51      29
Q'piac Oct   50      39
DFP          40      36
PPP          60      35
UT-Trib      45      37
UML          43      39
NYT/Siena    41      37
Q'piac Sep   51      43

Yeah, that’s a very different result for independent voters than for basically every other poll we’ve seen. Note that the UT-Trib poll had Trump up by five, as did the Quinnipiac poll from September (both were 50-45 for Trump, in fact), and that UMass-Lowell poll had Trump up 49-46. As the song goes, one of these things is not like the others.

There are other things that can be said about this poll – I appreciate the “who has voted” versus “who has yet to vote” distinction, and I appreciate the inclusion of downballot races though I tend to discount those results because of the increase in “don’t know” responses – but this is the main thing I wanted to cover.

Links to the cited polls, and their data or crosstabs page where the numbers I included can be found:

Data for Progressdata
UT-Trib (data about indies in quoted excerpt)

I will also note that Jim Henson and Joshua Blank have observed a shift in independents’ preferences in Texas towards indies this cycle. And now I will stop beating this horse.

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29 Responses to UH-Hobby: Trump 50, Biden 45

  1. David Fagan says:

    For independents there are four candidates, not two. Where are the numbers where the independents vote for one of the other parties? Each of the figures above add up between 75-95%, which would indicate none of the polls are accurate when it comes to independents.

    If independents could solidify themselves as a voting block, they would be the most influential in the end. 5% isn’t enough to care about when the election is over and that 5% ask for representation, but it is the most valuable 5% to pander to in times like these.

    Pander away politicos, pander away.

  2. SocraticGadfly says:

    Per David, that doesn’t count smart, independent minded independents who don’t vote. And, the duopoly is actually quite fine with them not voting. The top two third parties aren’t so much.

  3. SocraticGadfly says:

    OTOH, while I don’t know what it says about Biden among independents, the NYT calls it 47-43 Trump.

    Biggest takeaway from the story?

    Texas will remain “a non-voting state” in one big way: Hispanics still aren’t turning out.


  4. Bill Daniels says:

    Hey Manny,

    Here’s another ‘Lincoln Project’ video you might like, that I got a good laugh out of:


  5. David Fagan says:

    This data is interesting, because if you read the PPP poll for Joe Biden, he needs the 60% of independents to get the 49% to 48% win over trump, a 1% win. Also, 12% of Democrats in the same poll would vote for trump where 9% of Republicans would vote for Biden.

    The UMass and NYT Sienna I would consider more accurate because they are the only two who included the third parties in the actual questioning, as opposed to proposing the question “who would you vote for Trump or Biden?”. Who would you vote for? “Trump, Biden, Jorgensen, or Hawkins?” Much different set of questions for polling.

  6. Manny says:

    It is one poll among many that is why the average the polls to try to determine what people may actually do. The polls (average) had Cruz with a 6.8 lead over Beto. The final results were 2.6 difference. Assuming that the same thing is happening I would expect that a thight race in the polls suggests that Biden will win. That is why sees so many Republican commericals, including Trump commercials. That is why Bloomberg is putting 15 million more in Texas.

    Anything to suggest that Hispanics are doing this or that has to be taken with a grain of salt. The first problem is that many people with Spanish surnames do not consider themselves Hispanics. There are white Hispanics, black Hispanics, and brown Hispanics, there are even Asian Hispanics. Then there people with a surname of Smith that consider themselves Hispanic (Small percentage).

    Bill you are becoming delsuional and your hopes will be dashed on November the 3rd. I expect Biden to win Ohio, florida, and Texas do the math to what that means, and that may have been a part of a Lincoln Project commerical but it certainly was not the entire ad.

    Bill below is a Lincoln Project ad that is appropriate for you as you hate women as much as Trump.


  7. brad says:

    I wonder if Cruz considers himself Hispanic?

  8. Manny says:

    Brad it all depends on where Cruz is and the situation as to whether he consider himself Hispanic. In 2018 when the race was close, he went to the valley and said he was Hispanic and Beto wasn’t. I believe that is the first time politically that he has referred to himself as Hispanic. But he may have used being Hispanic to get into Princeton and Harvard under affirmative action.

  9. Bill Daniels says:

    Hey Manny,

    Here’s an audio tape of Hunter Biden admitting he’s in business with the fucking spy CHIEF of China! You can hear him admit it….brag about it. You can listen to it!


    And then he admits his business partner named him in a criminal case. Listen, then tell me about the battle for the soul, er, um, SALE of America.

    And if you’re so sure Biden wins, I don’t see why you won’t take my money in a charity bet. It’s a sure thing, right?

  10. Bill Daniels says:

    Hey Manny,

    In the spirit of bipartisanship, here’s a Republican campaign worker illegally changing votes on ballots, and admitting to it, ON CAMERA:


    But mail in ballot harvesting and fraud is just a hoax, right?

    “I don’t look good in stripes.”

  11. Manny says:

    Bill I really don’t care if Biden’s son is working with Satan. If the election was between the devil and trump, the devil would get my vote, at least he treats everyone the same way.

    Bill, or what every your real name is why would I bet with someone online that hides who they are? Besides as I have stated numerous times, I don’t gamble. But next week we will know who wins. Come and gloat if the Russian asset wins.

    How would I know what Hunter Binden’s voice sound like. Why would I believe anything that comes out of Trump’s mouth or your fingers. You all lie all the time. Why not provide tapes as to what Ivanka had to do to get those trademarks in China? I don’t care what she did either for the most part, but she is part of the reason so many Americans have died. The entire Trump family is a criminal enterprise, and Baron may not even be his son, according to some people, including Trump.


  12. Bill Daniels says:

    “How would I know what Hunter Biden’s voice sound like?”

    A: Listen to his TV interview with ABC’s Nightline

    Here he is being interviewed by Amy Rohbach


    It’s the same voice, Manny. All the shit you accused Trump and his family of……the Bidens actually did it, and I’m SHOWING you the receipts.

  13. brad says:

    Alaska Bill,

    You realize that with every accusation that Trump throws at Biden, Trump is completely projecting. You get that…right?

    I guess Trump is ecstatic to be anywhere from +2 to -2 points ahead/behind Biden at this point. Historically horrible #s for a Republican candidate in Texas. This is Texas, not Florida.

    Although lets be honest Trump isn’t a Republican. He was just able to identify the Republican Party as the crybaby conservatism and white grievance party which was an ideal ballot access vehicle for his Trump branding reboot campaign…err…I mean presidential campaign.

  14. Bill Daniels says:


    These aren’t “accusations,” these are the receipts. You can read the actual e-mails. You can LISTEN to Hunter incriminate himself and his family, and Bobulinski, the Biden’s business partner turned whistleblower, is supposed to release audio tapes of the Bidens incriminating themselves tonight. I mean, more than you already have in front of you.

    You can SEE the emails and HEAR the audio. Compare the audio to Hunter’s ABC interview….it’s the same! You tried to take down Trump with Hillary purchased bullshit that was proven fake. I’m giving you the receipts. No “unnamed sources,” no shadowy bullshit…..just the damning evidence that you can see and hear for yourself.

  15. manny says:

    Bill you are mentally missing some screws, the latest conspiracy you are pushing has bee debunked.

    I basically call Trump and his cultists, racists, bigots and such.

    I don’t care about Hunter but you seem to be obsessed with him. You racists, bigots and such are desperate. Five more days and we return America back to freedom loving Americans and get rid of the fascists.

  16. Bill Daniels says:

    Debunked, Manny? Who debunked it? Who debunked this email:


    Who debunked 10% held by H for the Big Guy?

    Who debunked the audio tape of Hunter admitting and bragging about being in business with the fucking spy chief of China?

    Nobody debunked it. They CAN’T. Even Creepy Joe didn’t deny it, he cleverly said it was ‘Russian disinformation.’ Invoking Russia is the go to for leftists when they have nothing.

  17. Manny says:

    Poor Bill has started believing his bullshit, just like his master, the orange buffoon. Pobrecito, I guess when you throw out so much manure the smell starts effecting the brain and there was not enough gray matter up there to begin with. Bill calm down and take your pills.

  18. Bill Daniels says:

    Watch the Bobulinksi interview tonight.


    This guy is no flake. He’s got the receipts! Again, there is no one saying the audio is fake. No one is saying the emails are fake. They can’t! This isn’t bullshit, Manny. This isn’t unnamed sources with no evidence.

    And apparently there’s more coming out tomorrow!

  19. Bill Daniels says:

    Newsweek reporting:


    They didn’t debunk, Manny. Surely this stuff would be easy to debunk, amirite?

  20. Manny says:

    Bill why do you think that everyone is a Republican/Idiot? So someone says something and you want to believe them, therfore it is true. So tell me why don’t you believe all those women, over twenty, that claim that Trump sexually assulted them? Why don’t you believe the woman that claims that Trump raped a 13 year old girl.

    To quote you (More or less), if that man had something to say, why didn’t he say it years ago? Why did he wait so long?

    Bill it has all been debunked. But let me repeat, if the devil was running against Trump, I would vote for the devil as he would treat everyone the same.

    You want China connections then look no further than Bannon.

    Debunked Bill, you are getting very upset about something that is not true, no matter how many times you and the orange buffoon repeat a lie no one believe you’ll anymore.


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  22. brad says:

    I will give Bill this. He is a good, albeit evil, GOP foot soldier following a tried and true pattern by the Republican party when campaigning/trolling.

    Keep repeating the lies, keep repeating the lies, keep repeating the lies, keep repeating the lies.

    And when you are finished….keep repeating the lies.

  23. C.L. says:

    I wish I had that kind of time in my day.

  24. Bill Daniels says:

    More Hunter emails:


    He is the Managing Director of a Chinese military linked company, and don’t you forget it!

  25. Brad says:

    Bless his heart.

  26. Manny says:

    Bill you Lie, lie, and then lie some more, just like the orange buffoon that you kneel to every day.

    Bill just because you link to something does not make it true, most of it originates in the minds of other American hating Republicans like you.

    From one source

    Sen. Ron Johnson, the chairman of both the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, said that he intends to call Bobulinski to the Senate to testify, but the hearing would not take place before the Tuesday election. All of the documents provided by Bobulinski have to be reviewed and verified before they can be used in a Senate hearing. A spokesman for Johnson told the Daily Caller that all the materials reviewed so far have turned out to be legitimate. The committee has not said what materials it has reviewed so far, nor did it say whether the documents that have been validated proved any of the allegations made by Bobulinski.

    Did you see that Texas is now a toss up state, Bill?

    Did you know that both in 2016 the polls have had the Democrats underperforming in Texas, Bill?

    Pack your stuff and move to another country Bill, your troll services won’t be needed after November.

  27. Manny says:

    Some times I get my laughs from other sites, this is about you Bill in case you are like the god you kneel down to every day, that would be Trump for you Bill.

    Poor baby he is now whining in Trump cultists blogs.

    Bill Daniels
    13 hours ago

    I think Trump will win, but not because of that interview or the Hunter laptop, or the other bombshells that are coming out. For one, there’s a media blackout on all of it. ALL of it. Can’t post the NY Post articles on Twitter or Facebook, etc. The MSM are actively ignoring it, and even when you present evidence to liberals, they ignore it or say it’s fake. So for people who don’t follow politics, none of this ever happened, because they don’t know about it, and for those who do who are hard leftists, they don’t care or don’t believe it.

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