Part 1 – Counties around Harris
Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant
Travis County has been at the forefront of the Democratic renaissance in Texas, punching well above its weight with both performance and turnout. Its blue essence has been spilling over its borders into its neighbor counties, and overall the picture here is as bright as you’ll see anywhere. Let’s have a look:
County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift
=========================================================================
Bastrop 14,033 9,864 16,328 10,569 20,486 15,452 -865
Blanco 3,638 1,220 4,212 1,244 5,429 1,905 -1,106
Burnet 12,843 3,674 14,638 3,797 18,721 5,615 -3,937
Caldwell 6,021 4,791 6,691 4,795 7,975 6,536 -209
Hays 31,661 25,537 33,826 33,224 47,427 59,213 17,910
Williamson 97,006 61,875 104,175 84,468 138,649 142,457 38,939
Williamson and Hays get all the ink, and they certainly present opportunities for further growth. I believe the same dynamic is here as it is in Dallas and Collin/Denton, which is that Travis County and all of its characteristics have simply expanded into the adjacent counties, making the distinction between the two, at least in the areas near the border, basically meaningless. I’ve long felt this about the southwest part of Harris County and Fort Bend. The numbers certainly bear it out.
Of great interest to me is that Bastrop and Caldwell counties took a step in the right direction in 2020, after going the wrong way in 2016. I was especially worried about Bastrop, home of Jade Helm hysteria, starting to slip away, but perhaps they too will begin to go the way of Hays as development from Travis creeps farther out along State Highway 71. Caldwell County was a pleasant surprise, as it is more of a rural county, and one I honestly hadn’t realized bordered Travis – you pass through Caldwell on I-10 between Houston and San Antonio – until I was reviewing the map I consulted for this post. Whatever happened in Caldwell in 2020 to get it moving in this direction, I approve.
That leaves Burnet and Blanco, both to the west and northwest of Travis. I haven’t been to Burnet since the 90s and may well be talking out of my ass here, but just looking at the geography, I could imagine some of the Travis overflow that had been going into Williamson going a little farther west into Burnet, and maybe that will blue it up a little. Just a guess, and even if there’s merit to it that’s likely not a short-term prospect. Until then, if Dem activist folks in Travis are looking for new worlds to conquer, I humbly suggest Burnet – and Bastrop, and Caldwell – as opportunities to consider.
Austin and San Marcos could ne responsible for Caldwell county.
It’s funny how the Republican business friendly laws of this state attract companies from California. The next step is to make the standard of living and taxes so high that no one can afford it anymore.
My State House 2020 reapportionment forecasts both Travis and Williamson gaining roughly half a district, while Hays will gain about a quarter of one. Specifically:
Hays goes from a large partial district to 1 + a small partial district.
Travis goes from 6 whole districts to 6 + a partial district.
Williamson goes from 2 + a partial district to 3 whole districts.
The other 4 counties will have the same size partial districts.
Pingback: Texas blog roundup for the week of November 30 – Off the Kuff