Tag Archives: polls

Quinnipiac: Cruz 51, O’Rourke 46

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

One last poll for the road. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 percentage points, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. The poll, released Monday with just a over a week left … Continue reading →

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Omnibus polling update

Posted on October 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

One last Trib poll: Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 51 percent to 45 percent in the Texas race for the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Libertarian Neal Dikeman was the choice of … Continue reading →

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The Beto-Abbott voters

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading →

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What are your turnout scenarios?

Posted on October 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I keep thinking about this: County Clerk Stan Stanart predicts up to a million Harris County residents could be casting ballots in a string of hotly-contested races. As you’ve heard me say many times, the Democrats’ main issue in off … Continue reading →

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CD31 “live poll” Carter 53, Hegar 38

Posted on October 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Not a great result in CD31, where Democratic challenger MJ Hegar and her fundraising and amazing vidoes have moved this race against Rep. John Carter into lean-Republican territory on multiple forecasters’ lists, with two minor caveats and one addendum. Nate … Continue reading →

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Change Research (Land Commissioner): Bush 41, Suazo 36

Posted on October 13, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Miguel Suazo, the Democratic nominee for Texas Land Commissioner, is within 5 points of incumbent George P. Bush. The poll was conducted shortly after Suazo was endorsed by former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, a Republican. The poll … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac (LV): Cruz 54, O’Rourke 45

Posted on October 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Everyone take a deep breath about the latest Quinnipiac result. Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O’Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. As for each candidate’s images, 52 percent of Texans surveyed had a favorable … Continue reading →

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CBS-YouGov: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 44 (LV)

Posted on October 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I expect we’ll see a bunch more polls in the next few days. The battle for Senate control finds Democrats trying to mount upset challenges in a string of typically Republican states, and this round of Battleground Tracker polls shows … Continue reading →

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Why FiveThirtyEight really believes Beto has a chance

Posted on October 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Nate Silver explains the reasoning behind the numbers. When building a statistical model, you ideally want to find yourself surprised by the data some of the time — just not too often. If you never come up with a result that … Continue reading →

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SD16 poll: Johnson 45, Huffines 42

Posted on September 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: A new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows challenger Nathan Johnson leading Don Huffines in the race for Texas Senate District 16, which covers most of northern Dallas County. Johnson has 45 percent of the vote, … Continue reading →

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What about Neal?

Posted on September 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey reminds us there is a third person in the Texas Senate race. Libertarians and other third-party candidates have never won state elections in Texas and rarely make a meaningful difference in election results, with one big exception: As … Continue reading →

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CD32 “live poll”: Sessions 48, Allred 47

Posted on September 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Another on of these polls, another close result. Incumbent Republican Pete Sessions and Democratic challenger Colin Allred are in a dead heat in the much-anticipated race for Dallas County’s 32nd Congressional District. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll … Continue reading →

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Two from PPP (RV): Cruz 48, O’Rourke 45, and Cruz 49, O’Rourke 46

Posted on September 22, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Fourth in a series from PPP. A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey commissioned by Protect Our Care finds that 62 percent of voters in Texas say health care will be one of the most important issues they consider when … Continue reading →

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CD07 “live poll”: Culberson 48, Fletcher 45

Posted on September 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s another of those NYT-Siena “live polls” of interesting Congressional races. Houston Rep. John Culberson holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher, a poll conducted by The New York Times Upshot found Tuesday. Culberson’s 3-point lead is within … Continue reading →

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Differing views of likely voters

Posted on September 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

First we had this. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 9 percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Released Tuesday, the survey found Cruz with 54 percent support … Continue reading →

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CD23 “live poll”: Hurd 51, Ortiz Jones 43

Posted on September 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Give this one a bit of side-eye. Incumbent Republican Will Hurd is leading his Democratic challenger, Gina Ortiz Jones, in one of the country’s most competitive races in this year’s midterm elections, according to a new poll by The New … Continue reading →

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Crosswinds: Cruz 47, O’Rourke 44

Posted on September 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s poll time again. In a sign of just how crucial the millennial vote might be in the upcoming mid-term elections, a statewide poll released Tuesday shows Ted Cruz leading 47 percent to Beto O’Rourke’s 44 percent among likely Texas … Continue reading →

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Yes, Republicans really are worried about Ted Cruz

Posted on September 13, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Their actions speak volumes. With a string of polls showing GOP Sen. Ted Cruz’s lead slipping, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick showed up in Washington on July 25 to deliver an urgent plea to White House officials: Send President Donald … Continue reading →

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On negative ads and name recognition

Posted on September 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I confess, I’m amused by this. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is going after Democrat Beto O’Rourke for cursing during some of his campaign speeches. The Cruz campaign released a digital ad on social media that shows O’Rourke cursing at various … Continue reading →

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The Atlantic on CD07

Posted on September 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this: On a Saturday morning in Houston, the high was 94 degrees with a chance of rain. It was hardly friendly weather for canvassing—the door-knocking, yard sign–delivering, get-out-the-vote efforts that define a politician’s … Continue reading →

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NBC News: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 45

Posted on August 24, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s been three weeks since our last poll result. In a head-to-head match up, Cruz held a 4-point lead over O’Rourke. Forty-nine percent of respondents backed Cruz, compared to 45 percent who supported O’Rourke. Six percent of respondents remain undecided. … Continue reading →

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Final EV turnout for the flood bond referendum

Posted on August 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Lower than initial estimates, though I think the initial estimates were on the optimistic side. But really, we were all guessing. Tuesday is the final day of early voting for Harris County’s proposed $2.5 billion flood bond, and as residents … Continue reading →

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Crosstab versus 538

Posted on August 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are familiar with the Congressional race projections from G. Elliott Morris at The Crosstab, which I’ve noted here and here. He uses a probabilistic model for each district. Which as it happens is also the approach taken by FiveThirtyEight … Continue reading →

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CD32 poll: Sessions 47, Allred 45

Posted on August 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Another internal poll, another close race. Texas Rep. Pete Sessions’ re-election race is looking increasingly competitive, with Democrat Colin Allred polling close to the longtime Republican lawmaker, according to a new internal Democratic survey. The Dallas-area 32nd District is traditionally … Continue reading →

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Day Seven flood bond EV totals

Posted on August 15, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The word of the week is “slow”. Fewer than 46,000 ballots have been cast in the first week of early voting on Harris County’s $2.5 billion flood bond referendum, but county officials on Monday said they expect many more voters … Continue reading →

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CD06 poll: Wright 48, Sanchez 39

Posted on August 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Via Patrick Svitek on Twitter, I learned of a recent PPP poll in CD06. Here’s the polling memo, and here’s the information you’re most interested in: Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance? 48% Approve … Continue reading →

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The range of Republican anxiety

Posted on August 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Some folks are a little scared about all this “blue wave” talk and poll numbers and what have you. As Ted Cruz took questions at a Republican women’s event [in Smithville] Saturday evening, Bastrop retiree Ronnie Ann Burt wanted to … Continue reading →

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Poll shows flood bond referendum in good shape

Posted on August 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Standard caveats apply. A majority of Harris County voters say they will support a $2.5 billion flood infrastructure bond at the polls later this month, according to University of Houston research released Monday. Sixty-two percent of residents who said they … Continue reading →

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PPP: Cruz 46, O’Rourke 42

Posted on August 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Once, twice, three times a poll result. A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that the Texas Senate race between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke is competitive as O’Rourke continues to close the gap. In the … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 43

Posted on August 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Two polls in one week. A new poll released Wednesday morning suggests a tightening race between U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. The newly released poll from Quinnipiac University gives Cruz a 6-point lead: 49 percent of … Continue reading →

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Lyceum: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 39

Posted on August 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good result, though the others with it could be better. A new poll released Wednesday suggests that U.S. Sen Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, are in a dead heat. The poll from Texas Lyceum shows Cruz … Continue reading →

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The Trib looks at the AG race

Posted on July 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

There’s case that this is the second-most interesting statewide race on the ballot. Three years ago almost to the day, a Collin County grand jury indicted Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for securities fraud. As the state’s top lawyer turned … Continue reading →

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Republicans and Independents

Posted on July 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Something to ponder. The good news for President Trump in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll — half of which was conducted before and the day of the Helsinki presser with Putin, half of which was conducted afterward — … Continue reading →

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What’s the deal with that Civiqs poll?

Posted on July 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Last week, Markos at Daily Kos posted this: I didn’t want to believe Politico’s, “Beto-mania sweeps Texas.” But a look at our Civiqs Texas data (which we poll for our own use, not for any client), and holy shit, it’s … Continue reading →

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