PREVIOUSLY
Beto versus Abbott
Beto versus the spread
We’ve looked at the Governor’s race, in which Beto was the top Democratic performer. Now we’ll look at the next highest profile race, in which the result was a surprise to some people who didn’t connect Democratic performance at the top of the ticket with the other local races. Here’s the data for the County Judge race, in which Judge Lina Hidalgo won re-election by a close margin, though on a percentage basis it was slightly wider than her initial win in 2018. As with the first Beto post, I’m just going to dump all the data and will add my comments at the end.
Dist Mealer Hidalgo W-I
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CD02 77,665 46,669 21
CD07 53,108 77,625 29
CD08 46,156 45,668 17
CD09 23,451 71,374 29
CD18 46,492 107,792 46
CD22 13,292 8,076 2
CD29 33,392 66,220 27
CD36 70,392 41,817 24
CD38 170,772 87,662 46
CD02 62.45% 37.53% 0.02%
CD07 40.61% 59.36% 0.02%
CD08 50.26% 49.73% 0.02%
CD09 24.72% 75.25% 0.03%
CD18 30.13% 69.85% 0.03%
CD22 62.20% 37.79% 0.01%
CD29 33.51% 66.46% 0.03%
CD36 62.72% 37.26% 0.02%
CD38 66.07% 33.91% 0.02%
Dist Mealer Hidalgo W-I
=============================
SD04 58,925 34,135 14
SD06 45,259 81,877 39
SD07 163,993 97,075 50
SD11 60,351 32,991 17
SD13 25,998 96,440 45
SD15 97,303 146,861 50
SD17 64,692 46,518 22
SD18 18,199 17,006 4
SD04 63.31% 36.68% 0.02%
SD06 35.59% 64.38% 0.03%
SD07 62.80% 37.18% 0.02%
SD11 64.64% 35.34% 0.02%
SD13 21.23% 78.74% 0.04%
SD15 39.84% 60.14% 0.02%
SD17 58.16% 41.82% 0.02%
SD18 51.69% 48.30% 0.01%
Dist Mealer Hidalgo W-I
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HD126 38,281 21,401 17
HD127 41,603 24,533 5
HD128 33,175 12,968 12
HD129 39,519 24,982 11
HD130 47,660 18,606 13
HD131 6,519 24,611 13
HD132 37,180 23,721 7
HD133 36,909 23,379 11
HD134 35,653 45,142 16
HD135 17,620 22,982 7
HD137 8,600 12,670 9
HD138 33,875 22,977 9
HD139 13,492 30,143 11
HD140 6,238 12,885 5
HD141 5,209 20,104 17
HD142 9,939 24,454 7
HD143 9,087 15,412 6
HD144 12,242 14,069 9
HD145 15,445 30,141 11
HD146 9,975 31,981 11
HD147 10,964 35,240 12
HD148 16,934 20,004 8
HD149 12,496 19,196 4
HD150 36,105 21,302 10
HD126 64.12% 35.85% 0.03%
HD127 62.90% 37.09% 0.01%
HD128 71.88% 28.10% 0.03%
HD129 61.26% 38.72% 0.02%
HD130 71.91% 28.07% 0.02%
HD131 20.93% 79.03% 0.04%
HD132 61.04% 38.95% 0.01%
HD133 61.21% 38.77% 0.02%
HD134 44.12% 55.86% 0.02%
HD135 43.39% 56.59% 0.02%
HD137 40.42% 59.54% 0.04%
HD138 59.58% 40.41% 0.02%
HD139 30.91% 69.06% 0.03%
HD140 32.61% 67.36% 0.03%
HD141 20.56% 79.37% 0.07%
HD142 28.89% 71.09% 0.02%
HD143 37.08% 62.89% 0.02%
HD144 46.51% 53.45% 0.03%
HD145 33.87% 66.10% 0.02%
HD146 23.77% 76.21% 0.03%
HD147 23.72% 76.25% 0.03%
HD148 45.83% 54.14% 0.02%
HD149 39.42% 60.56% 0.01%
HD150 62.88% 37.10% 0.02%
Dist Mealer Hidalgo W-I
=============================
CC1 80,014 194,272 79
CC2 101,745 103,117 48
CC3 233,567 133,554 63
CC4 119,394 121,960 51
CC1 29.16% 70.81% 0.03%
CC2 49.65% 50.32% 0.02%
CC3 63.61% 36.37% 0.02%
CC4 49.46% 50.52% 0.02%
Dist Mealer Hidalgo W-I
=============================
JP1 71,793 116,463 40
JP2 23,249 29,149 10
JP3 37,340 40,840 31
JP4 180,017 119,979 60
JP5 152,130 137,293 52
JP6 5,840 17,018 5
JP7 13,972 64,220 27
JP8 50,379 27,941 16
JP1 38.13% 61.85% 0.02%
JP2 44.36% 55.62% 0.02%
JP3 47.74% 52.22% 0.04%
JP4 59.99% 39.99% 0.02%
JP5 52.55% 47.43% 0.02%
JP6 25.54% 74.43% 0.02%
JP7 17.86% 82.10% 0.03%
JP8 64.31% 35.67% 0.02%
Hidalgo got 50.78% of the vote, which is 3.25 points less than Beto. She got 553K votes, which is 42K less than Beto. Mealer got 534K votes, 44K more than Abbott. Third party candidates accounted for over 16K votes in the Governor’s race, while the write-in candidate for County Judge got 241 total votes. I do not and never will understand anyone who thinks that writing in a candidate for County Judge could possibly be productive, but that’s not important right now.
For the most part, Hidalgo’s performance in each district is about what you’d expect in comparison to Beto. Generally speaking, she did a couple of points worse. The two glaring exceptions to this are HDs 133 and 134, both wealthy, well-educated, predominantly white districts that, in keeping with recent trends, are a lot more Democratic than they used to be. Hidalgo trailed Beto by six points in HD133 and seven in HD134. If I were the New York Times, I’d spend the next six months visiting brunch counters in those districts to talk to more-in-sadness-than-in-anger Mealer voters, who will turn out to have been almost uniformly Ed Emmett voters in 2018 but who will insist that they really wanted to support Hidalgo, they largely agreed with her on how she handled the pandemic and all, but for reasons they can’t quite articulate they just couldn’t. I’m sure it would be compelling reading, but I don’t have the staff or the budget for that. Plus, the idea of it makes me gag, so it’s just as well.
Anyway. The other notable thing is that with the lone exception of JP/Constable Precinct 5, Hidalgo still carried every district Beto carried. (I’m not concerning myself with fractional districts like CD08.) I was worried that if Hidalgo lost, there was a real chance Dems could lose not one but both of the Commissioners Court races as well. Looking at the numbers, it’s not an irrational fear. I’ll have more to say about those Commissioners Court precincts later, so let’s put a pin in that for now.
We have to talk about the many millions of dollars spent by various wealthy wingnuts against Judge Hidalgo and Democratic criminal court judges. We can’t say for certain how much all that spending affected the final outcomes, but it’s impossible to think it had no effect. What I wonder about is whether there will be much appetite for that kind of spending in future races. For sure, it’s hard to imagine much money spent on Republicans locally in 2024. Democrats haven’t lost a judicial race in a Presidential year since 2012, and haven’t lost a majority of judicial races in a Presidential year since 2004. In 2020, eleven Democratic judicial candidates were unopposed. I won’t be surprised if that number is matched or exceeded in 2024. I won’t speculate about 2026 – at the very least, Republicans will have four incumbents to try to defend, so they’ll want to do something – but I don’t see them having a $25 million budget. Maybe Judge Hidalgo will have an easier time of it as well.
I’ll have more to say about judicial races later. In the meantime, let me know what you think.