All right, I have the full landscape data for Harris County and the November 2022 election, and I’ll be doing my usual thing with it. There’s a lot of data and a lot of ways to explore it, some of which I don’t realize until I’m in the process of looking at something else. I’m going to start here with the top of the ticket. Let’s roll out the numbers, and at the other side I’ll have all the words.
Dist Abbott Beto Lib Grn
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CD02 73,159 50,757 1,333 445
CD07 45,780 84,973 1,545 452
CD08 43,294 48,380 860 371
CD09 20,661 74,545 788 504
CD18 39,628 115,106 1,562 703
CD22 12,585 8,669 264 83
CD29 30,228 69,265 920 778
CD36 66,728 44,969 1,410 439
CD38 158,198 98,989 3,130 751
CD02 58.20% 40.38% 1.06% 0.35%
CD07 34.49% 64.01% 1.16% 0.34%
CD08 46.60% 52.07% 0.93% 0.40%
CD09 21.41% 77.25% 0.82% 0.52%
CD18 25.24% 73.32% 0.99% 0.45%
CD22 58.26% 40.13% 1.22% 0.38%
CD29 29.87% 68.45% 0.91% 0.77%
CD36 58.77% 39.60% 1.24% 0.39%
CD38 60.60% 37.92% 1.20% 0.29%
Dist Abbott Beto Lib Grn
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SD04 55,846 36,950 1,005 312
SD06 41,043 85,936 1,225 927
SD07 153,513 106,557 2,933 853
SD11 57,156 35,725 1,214 339
SD13 22,813 100,559 958 680
SD15 83,653 160,077 2,850 932
SD17 59,143 51,734 1,307 363
SD18 17,094 18,115 320 120
SD04 59.34% 39.26% 1.07% 0.33%
SD06 31.78% 66.55% 0.95% 0.72%
SD07 58.18% 40.38% 1.11% 0.32%
SD11 60.52% 37.83% 1.29% 0.36%
SD13 18.25% 80.44% 0.77% 0.54%
SD15 33.80% 64.67% 1.15% 0.38%
SD17 52.55% 45.97% 1.16% 0.32%
SD18 47.95% 50.81% 0.90% 0.34%
Dist Abbott Beto Lib Grn
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HD126 35,835 23,627 711 185
HD127 39,102 26,791 722 221
HD128 31,983 13,915 513 171
HD129 37,118 27,144 864 227
HD130 44,983 20,891 775 198
HD131 5,963 25,387 231 169
HD132 35,079 25,603 627 173
HD133 33,195 26,971 684 156
HD134 29,592 51,010 1,044 181
HD135 16,443 24,121 369 208
HD137 7,860 13,421 245 116
HD138 31,077 25,464 708 209
HD139 11,643 32,115 394 199
HD140 5,717 13,400 166 187
HD141 4,549 20,922 210 156
HD142 8,666 25,793 289 204
HD143 8,420 16,047 208 192
HD144 11,566 14,683 260 178
HD145 12,631 32,765 623 228
HD146 8,511 33,610 333 200
HD147 8,952 37,366 476 216
HD148 15,451 21,460 435 175
HD149 12,068 19,844 256 173
HD150 33,857 23,303 669 204
HD126 59.37% 39.14% 1.18% 0.31%
HD127 58.50% 40.08% 1.08% 0.33%
HD128 68.66% 29.87% 1.10% 0.37%
HD129 56.80% 41.53% 1.32% 0.35%
HD130 67.29% 31.25% 1.16% 0.30%
HD131 18.78% 79.96% 0.73% 0.53%
HD132 57.06% 41.64% 1.02% 0.28%
HD133 54.41% 44.21% 1.12% 0.26%
HD134 36.16% 62.34% 1.28% 0.22%
HD135 39.97% 58.63% 0.90% 0.51%
HD137 36.32% 62.01% 1.13% 0.54%
HD138 54.09% 44.32% 1.23% 0.36%
HD139 26.25% 72.41% 0.89% 0.45%
HD140 29.36% 68.82% 0.85% 0.96%
HD141 17.61% 80.98% 0.81% 0.60%
HD142 24.79% 73.80% 0.83% 0.58%
HD143 33.86% 64.53% 0.84% 0.77%
HD144 43.34% 55.02% 0.97% 0.67%
HD145 27.31% 70.85% 1.35% 0.49%
HD146 19.95% 78.80% 0.78% 0.47%
HD147 19.04% 79.49% 1.01% 0.46%
HD148 41.18% 57.19% 1.16% 0.47%
HD149 37.31% 61.36% 0.79% 0.53%
HD150 58.34% 40.15% 1.15% 0.35%
Dist Abbott Beto Lib Grn
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CC1 67,070 207,830 2,747 1,167
CC2 95,270 108,943 2,266 1,188
CC3 218,228 147,384 4,148 1,218
CC4 109,693 131,496 2,651 953
CC1 24.06% 74.54% 0.99% 0.42%
CC2 45.88% 52.46% 1.09% 0.57%
CC3 58.83% 39.73% 1.12% 0.33%
CC4 44.81% 53.72% 1.08% 0.39%
Dist Abbott Beto Lib Grn
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JP1 60,159 127,746 2,343 728
JP2 21,749 30,575 520 300
JP3 35,283 42,924 715 405
JP4 168,373 130,575 3,308 1,100
JP5 140,459 148,609 3,076 1,101
JP6 4,970 17,898 228 168
JP7 11,615 67,072 582 414
JP8 47,653 30,254 1,040 310
JP1 31.50% 66.89% 1.23% 0.38%
JP2 40.92% 57.53% 0.98% 0.56%
JP3 44.48% 54.11% 0.90% 0.51%
JP4 55.50% 43.04% 1.09% 0.36%
JP5 47.90% 50.68% 1.05% 0.38%
JP6 21.36% 76.93% 0.98% 0.72%
JP7 14.58% 84.17% 0.73% 0.52%
JP8 60.12% 38.17% 1.31% 0.39%
My notes:
– Going forward, for the most part, I’m going to skip the Congressional and State Senate districts. Most of them are not wholly contained within Harris County – only CDs 18, 29, and 38, and SDs 06 and 15 are fully represented here – so I don’t find there’s sufficient value for the added work. When we get the Texas Legislative Council dataset for the 2022 election, then I’ll return to these districts plus the SBOE districts (none of which are entirely within Harris County now that SBOE6 extends into Montgomery). Also note that CD10 no longer includes any of Harris County.
– I will have a separate post on this, but if you’re wondering how Beto did compared to expectations on the new maps, see here and here for a first look. There will be more, I promise.
– Beto was the top performer for Dems in Harris County, getting 54.03% of the vote. That makes his performance in the precincts the best case scenario (usually), at least for this election. He would be a top performer but not the top performer in 2020 or 2018, so this is hardly an upper bound. For districts that Dems would ideally like to target, like HDs 133 and 138, this shows where we’re starting out in an okay but not great year.
– Honestly, I don’t have a whole lot to say here. I think the more interesting stuff will come when I look at the comparisons to past years and when I look at some of the other races. Even without looking at past data, there wasn’t much of a surprise in anything here. All of the districts performed more or less as you’d expect. The one item of interest may be Beto carrying (barely) JP/Constable precinct 5, given our previous discussion of those precincts. I’m sure we could draw six, maybe even seven Democratic precincts, though whether we could do that while equalizing population and not violating the Voting Rights Act is another question. For sure, we could make five solid Dem precincts.
– So I’ll end here, with a note that I will also look at how the vote went in the city of Houston, the split in the statewide races, the easy passage of the Harris County bonds, and a very deep dive into judicial races. All this and more, coming up soon. Let me know if you have any questions.
