I’ve said before that I wanted to see a poll in which one of the local Congressional challengers broke the 40% mark while also holding the incumbent below 50. Well, ask and ye shall receive.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Culberson (R) 48
Skelly (D) 40
Nice. Looking at the internals and crosstabs, I think the sample is a tad bit less Republican than I’d have expected (39R/33D/28I), but that may just be a reflection of how things have changed. The poll also has McCain leading Obama in CD07 by a 51-39 margin, which reasonably suggests Skelly will lead the ticket for the Democrats in that district. He has room to grow, as Culberson does better among Republicans than Skelly does among Democrats (82-6 for Culberson, 79-10 for Skelly) and also leads among indies by a 46-41 mark. Still a lot of ground to make up, but well within striking range. And again, if the GOP is doing this poorly in CD07, especially compared to their own expectations, their prospects in Harris County and even statewide aren’t so hot. If they’re not running up the score in a high-turnout GOP-friendly district like this, where will they do it?
People know that he voted against the bailout the first time. That may hurt him.