Tag Archives: Election 2012

Initial thoughts on the 2024 primary

Some opening considerations as we peruse the final unofficial voting data. Before you read my words, go check out Stace, Campos, Reform Austin, and the Texas Signal. Here we go: – Final turnout in Harris County was 176,396 for Dems … Continue reading

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One more look at primary turnout

Here’s the Derek Ryan report on early voting in the primaries, which sent me off into a rabbit hole yesterday. Early voting is over. (Thank goodness! Early voting is always the busiest point of the entire two-year election cycle for … Continue reading

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Final 2024 Primary Early Voting totals

Off we go to Primary Day. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 7,735 30,142 37,877 2016 13,034 72,782 85,816 2020 22,785 116,748 139,533 2024 14,661 87,591 102,252 2012 17,734 60,347 78,081 2016 20,780 110,365 131,145 2020 22,801 82,108 104,909 2024 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Ten: Down to the wire

Here we go, the penultimate day and the day where we really see the uptick in early voting: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 7,458 23,080 30,538 2016 12,202 53,302 65,504 2020 21,658 82,365 104,023 2024 14,002 65,756 79,758 2012 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Nine: Two more to go

A slight uptick yesterday in early voting, with the two big days to come. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,719 19,324 22,752 2016 11,367 45,552 56,919 2020 19,400 66,322 85,722 2024 12,448 55,456 67,904 2012 15,239 39,482 54,721 2016 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Eight: That was Tuesday

We are at the point of the early voting calendar where I begin to run out of clever intros. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,381 16,371 22,752 2016 10,970 34,419 45,389 2020 18,503 54,325 72,728 2024 10,440 47,185 57,625 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Seven: Week 2 begins

Week Two is where the action really begins, though usually you don’t see the first hint of it until Wednesday. Let’s check the board: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,295 13,763 18,058 2016 10,180 28,367 38,547 2020 16,651 44,349 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Six: On to week 2

Five more days of early voting to go. Here’s where we are after the weekend: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,055 11,580 17,635 2016 8,850 23,384 32,234 2020 15,101 36,719 51,820 2024 7,643 33,276 40,919 2012 12,915 24,000 36,915 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Four: Heading into the weekend

One sort-of full week of early voting down, seven more days to go. Let’s check the board: Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 6,055 8,242 14,297 2016 8,850 14,554 23,404 2020 15,101 25,260 40,361 2024 6,663 24,646 31,309 2012 12,915 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day Three: Settling in

Sorry I didn’t get to this yesterday. Too damn much news. Here we go. Year Mail Early Total ============================== 2012 5,875 6,317 12,192 2016 8,167 10,231 18,398 2020 13,793 17,735 31,528 2024 4,447 17,897 22,344 2012 12,450 13,464 25,914 2016 … Continue reading

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2024 Primary Early Voting, Day One: And we’re off

It’s Early Voting time, everyone’s favorite time of the year. I’m just going to get right into it, I’m sure there will be stories to note later but for right here and right now, it’s just the numbers. Here are … Continue reading

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Any early thoughts about what primary turnout might look like?

Why yes I do, thanks for asking. The early indicators are that we are in for lower than usual turnout. With President Joe Biden facing only token opposition in the Democratic primary and Trump pulling away on the GOP side, … Continue reading

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Time for another chat about voter registration and turnout

Let’s do it. Texas Democrats came away from Beto O’Rourke’s surprisingly narrow 2018 defeat to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with a simple plan: register to vote the millions of nonvoting Texans that demographics suggest lean Democrat and electoral victories will … Continue reading

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Rep. Kay Granger to retire

From Monday evening. U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth, won’t run for reelection, five well-placed sources who know the longtime congresswoman’s plans told the Fort Worth Report and KERA News. “I think she’s tired,” said one source. “She’s accomplished so … Continue reading

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Past interviews with Mayoral candidates

As I said last week, I have decided to wait until the runoff to do Mayoral candidate interviews. The size of the field and the limited amount of time I had available to try to schedule probably seven interviews with … Continue reading

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Paxton not feeling the love in Collin County

Poor baby. When the Texas House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton in the waning days of a regular legislative session, some Texans were shocked that the 121 “yes” votes included every representative from Collin County, … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Congress 2022

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 A comparison with 2012 This will be short and bland, as there ain’t many competitive Congressional districts by any metric. Dist Abbott Abb% Beto Beto% =================================== 28 79,478 46.4% 88,550 51.7% 34 57,793 42.7% 75,741 55.9% … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Looking back at the 2012 landscape

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 We’ve had our first look at the way the new State House districts performed, and while we can expect the 2024 election to be a little different, it’s clear at this time that there aren’t many … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State House 2022

We have data. Texas Democrats and Republicans are beginning to gear up for a presidential election cycle in which opportunities to flip seats for Congress and the Legislature appear limited. It’s a natural outcome after Republicans redrew legislative and congressional … Continue reading

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What will it take to keep those ten appellate court benches we won in 2018?

As you may recall, Democrats won a ton of Appellate Court races in 2018. Ten of them, in fact, five each on the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals, the first such victories since winning a lone bench in 2008. … Continue reading

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What I want from the next HCDP Chair

As you know, the Harris County Democratic Party will soon have a new Chair. And as you know, I am a Democratic precinct chair, which means I’m one of the several hundred people that will vote on who that is. … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Inside and out of the city

Most years we don’t get the data to differentiate between votes cast by residents of Houston and votes cast by Harris County non-Houston residents. There needs to be a citywide referendum of the ballot in order to get at this … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Hidalgo versus Mealer

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread We’ve looked at the Governor’s race, in which Beto was the top Democratic performer. Now we’ll look at the next highest profile race, in which the result was a surprise to some … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships: Tarrant County

In years past, Tarrant County was a pretty close bellwether for election results in the state of Texas. From 2004 through 2016, the closeness of their Presidential numbers with the statewide numbers was eerie. But since 2018 the talk has … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 4: What happened in 2022

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Now that the final totals are in, let’s go back and do the same exercise in comparing overall results for statewide candidates to the results they got in Harris County, and then from there … Continue reading

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Fewer mail ballots rejected in November

Good, but still could be better. Local election officials in Texas are reporting a drop in the percentage of mail ballots that have so far been flagged for rejection during the ongoing midterm elections, as compared with a spike earlier … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 3: Other county races

Part One Part Two Last time we looked at judicial races, which for all of the complaints about not knowing the candidates and just going by partisan labels have produced a consistent range of outcomes over the years. Some people … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 2: Judicial races

In Part One of this series, we looked at the relationship between statewide results and Harris County results for statewide candidates. In the last three elections, statewide Democratic candidates have done on average more than nine points better in Harris … Continue reading

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State and county election result relationships, part 1: How Harris compares

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the relationship between how statewide Democratic candidates do in Harris County versus how they do overall, and what that might tell us about the state of play in Harris County. Since I started … Continue reading

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The independents

Recently I got an email from a gentleman named Ted Wood, who wrote to inform me that he had successfully completed the requirements to be an independent candidate for Chief Justice of the First Court of Appeals on the November … Continue reading

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HISD approves its budget

First one for the new Superintendent. Houston ISD trustees on Thursday unanimously approved a $2.2 billion budget that will give teacher raises some have called long overdue and fund the upcoming school year when the district is expected to begin … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: The new Senate map

Previously: New State House map, New Congressional map, new SBOE map. The good news is that all 31 Senate seats will be on the ballot this year, as it is a post-redistricting year. The bad news is that the only … Continue reading

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The only constant is change

This DMN story is about the wave of changes to the various legislative caucuses in North Dallas, but if you pull the lens back just a little, you can see how universal it is. Proponents of term limits complain that … Continue reading

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Final 2022 primary early voting totals

It’s been a strange two weeks for early voting, so let’s get to the wrapup. Here are your final early voting totals. The table for comparison: Election Mail Early Total ================================ 2018 D 22,695 70,152 92,847 2018 R 24,500 61,425 … Continue reading

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