One last look at partisan voting trends this decade, with a peek at how straight ticket voting has changed over time. This one is a bit trickier to determine, since it’s not tracked by the Secretary of State. You have to go to each individual County Clerk website to figure it out. Some counties I looked at – Cameron, Comal, Galveston, and Hays – either didn’t have election result archives, or they had incomplete information. Here’s what I found for the counties that did have this data:
Election 2008
Joe Agris
I read with great interest this feature story on Houston plastic surgeon Joe Agris, who was a longtime collaborator with the late Marvin Zindler in getting medical help to indigent children. I did so partly because Agris is a fascinating person with a distinguished career, and partly because he was the Republican candidate for HD134 against Rep. Ellen Cohen in 2008, and his accomplishments and high profile seemed to make him a formidable challenger to the incumbent. Yet his candidacy went nowhere, due in part to the fact that he raised absolutely no money, and had nothing resembling a visible campaign as far as I could tell. I spend a lot of time in HD134 – I drive through it every day on my way to and from work, and my in-laws live there – and I never saw as much as a single yard sign for him; there had been several for Carlos Obando, the opponent he defeated in the GOP primary for the nomination, but they were never replaced by Agris signs. I wish I had some insight as to why he put forth no apparent effort into that race – does anyone doubt that Obando would have run a more vigorous campaign? – but alas, the story does not mention his candidacy at all. So, if you know something about this that I don’t, please leave a comment, because this one is still a mystery to me. Thanks.
Both sides may claim victory, but that doesn’t mean they both achieved it
As you know, last week there was a settlement reached in the lawsuit against the Harris County Tax Assessor’s office over allegations that they improperly rejected thousands of voter registration applications last year. Shortly after that agreement was signed, the Lone Star Project touted it as a major victory for the plaintiffs, who got vindication on many of their claims and agreement from the Tax Assessor’s office to do things differently in several key areas. Earlier this week, the Tax Assessor’s office sent out a press release saying that it was they who had been proven right. Some lawsuits allow for win-win resolutions, but this one struck me as more of a zero-sum endeavor. So who really did win? According to this Chron editorial that praised the settlement, it wasn’t Leo Vasquez.
Vasquez issued a statement calling the settlement a vindication from baseless allegations. But the specified changes in the tax-office procedures for handling registration applications make it clear that the original complaints were anything but frivolous.
The settlement requires that the office’s voter registrar must either process a registration application or notify the applicant why the paperwork is being rejected within the state-mandated seven days.
The registrar must also provide within three business days, upon request by chairs of political parties, reports of all voters registered, applications received, the number rejected, and the names and addresses of those affected.
The settlement also prohibits employees and contractors working for the tax office’s voter section from “having other employment or financial interests in any outside company providing voter information to any candidate, political party, or other person or entity.”
Well, the settlement does include no admission of wrongdoing, as is often the case in situations like this. If Vasquez wants to hang his hat on that, it’s fine by me. I’ll take the substantive changes that were made, and will look forward to ensuring that what happened in 2008 never happens again. You can read the agreement here and judge for yourself.
Settlement reached in Harris County voter registration lawsuit
You may recall the lawsuit that was filed back in December against Paul Bettencourt and the Harris County Tax Assessor’s office over allegations that thousands of voter registration applications were rejected for frivolous reasons. That lawsuit has now been settled.
Gerry Birnberg, chairman of the Harris County Democratic Party, said the agreement will ensure the registrar’s office does not exceed the seven days state election law allows it to process a voter registration application or send the applicant a letter explaining why he or she was not registered.
“The bottom line is this resolution should make the voter registration process more efficient, fairer and easier for qualified citizens wanting to register to vote,“ Birnberg said. “It should ensure more of them will be accepted and be processed in time to be able to vote.”
Birnberg said the settlement — reached after mediation between party officials, the registrar’s office and the county attorney’s office — will eliminate the technical challenges the local office made to applications for voter credentials.
The Quorum Report has more details:
The plaintiffs had been seeking to review the 70,000 rejected voter registration applications in the belief that hyper-technicalities had been used to systematically disenfranchise certain classes of eligible voters. Harris County had rejected more than 30 times the number of voter registrations as had Dallas County in the same period.
The settlement is being formalized tonight but Special Assistant County Attorney John Odom told QR that the plaintiffs dropped their efforts to review historical documents for improprieties in exchange for enumerated procedures that prevented future voter registration rejections based on the issues about which Democrats had complained.
In addition, the settlement prohibits county election officials from moonlighting in political businesses. The former #2 voter registration official Ed Johnson was suspected by Democrats of both improperly rejecting applications and using information obtained in his official position for his political consulting partnership with state Rep. Dwayne Bohac.
Works for me. I would have liked to pursue that historic review, but what was gotten in trade for it seems like a good deal. If it helps prevent what happened before from happening again, it’s well worth it.
TPJ files complaint with Ethics Commission against Craddick
Texans for Public Justice has filed a complaint with the Texas Ethics Commission against former Speaker Tom Craddick, alleging that he obfuscated campaign donations made to several Democratic supporters of his prior to the 2008 primaries. From their press release (PDF):
Jobs PAC reported that it received $250,000 from Tom Craddick’s campaign committee on January 10, 2008. According to news reports, around that time Craddick campaign employee Christi Craddick also provided Texas Jobs with written instructions to distribute the funds to Democratic Reps. Kevin Bailey, Dawnna Dukes, Kino Flores and Aaron Pena.1 All four incumbents previously supported Republican Speaker Craddick and faced challengers in the 2008 Democratic primary.2 According to its own reports, Jobs PAC wrote three checks of $50,000 apiece to the campaigns of Reps. Bailey, Flores and Pena on January 11, 2008. By its own accounting, at the time Texas Jobs wrote these checks its sole source of funding was the $250,000 that it received the day before from the Craddick campaign. Rep. Dukes, the fourth lawmaker, told the Austin American-Statesman that she rejected an offer to receive $50,000 from Texas Jobs because her opponent already was making her Craddick ties a campaign issue.3
“Tom Craddick wanted to move tens of thousands of dollars to his favorite Democrats without letting voters know,” said Texans for Public Justice Director Craig McDonald. “Hiding the true source of campaign funds is illegal. Craddick could have contributed the money directly and openly. Instead, he used Texas Jobs to launder his money and keep Texans in dark.”
The TPJ filed a criminal complaint with the Travis County Attorney’s office last year when this information first came out. I am not aware of any updates to this case, but I suspect that it went nowhere, else there’d be little reason to take things up with the TEC. We’ll see what happens. More on this can be found here and here.
Presidential results by Congressional district
Swing State Project has compiled a list of Presidential results by Congressional district, for all 435 DCs around the country. I’ve pulled out the Texas numbers and put them in a Google spreadsheet for ease of viewing. Here are a few notable ones:
CD Incumbent Obama Kerry Gore =================================== 03 Johnson 42 33 30 07 Culberson 41 36 31 10 McCaul 44 38 34 21 Smith 41 34 31 22 Olson 41 36 33 24 Marchant 44 35 32 26 Burgess 42 35 38 31 Carter 42 33 32 32 Sessions 46 40 36
The numbers represent the percentage of the vote the Democratic Presidential nominee got in that district in that year. I believe this is a two-party comparison, so Nader votes were excluded; in other years, the third-party Presidential vote is small enough to not matter much. “Incumbent” refers to the 2008 officeholder.
(By the way, my assumption is that the 2000 results are derived from taking the data from the existing precincts for that year, regardless of which actual CD they were in at that time. That must be the case, because CDs 31 and 32 didn’t exist in 2000.)
You can also now see similar figures from the Cook Political Report, which just released its updated PVIs to reflect the 2008 Presidential cycle. What does this mean?
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (PVI) Explained
In August of 1997, The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as a means of providing a more accurate picture of the competitiveness of each of the 435 congressional districts. Using the 1992 and 1996 major-party Presidential voting results, the PVI measured how each congressional district performed compared to the nation as a whole.
Using the results of the 2004 and 2008 elections, we have updated these PVI ratings and have even more information to draw upon to understand the congressional level trends and tilts that will help to define upcoming elections.
Developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata, the index is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years.
While other data such as the results of senatorial, gubernatorial, congressional and other local races can help fine tune the exact partisan tilt of a particular district, those kinds of results don’t allow a comparison of districts across state lines. Only Presidential results allow for total comparability.
A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN.
To determine the national average for these latest ratings, we have taken the average Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote for 2004 and 2008, which is roughly 51.3 percent, and that of Republicans, which is roughly 48.7 percent. So, if John Kerry captured 55 percent of the vote in a district and Barack Obama carried 57 percent in the district four years later, the district would have a PVI score of roughly D+5.
And here are the PVIs for the Texas districts:
Precinct analysis: The City Council districts revised
Last week, I presented data on the 2008 election results by City Council district and by city of Houston/not City of Houston. I said at the time that the measurement was a bit rough because precinct boundaries do not conform to City of Houston boundaries. After the post was published, I heard from Eric Ingenthron, who has been crunching some numbers for the Karen Derr campaign, and he was able to provide me some more granular data about individual precincts and the number of registrants in each that have the “city of Houston” designation on them. I then used his data to refine my results, and this is what I came up with.
District Obama Noriega Garcia Judicials ============================================ Houston 61.0 61.8 65.9 60.9 Harris 39.5 40.5 45.7 39.8 A 45.4 46.6 52.9 45.2 B 91.0 91.6 92.9 91.7 C 60.6 59.9 64.5 58.5 D 88.9 87.1 88.7 86.9 E 40.8 42.4 47.4 40.9 F 63.7 65.2 68.8 65.0 G 42.2 40.6 45.6 39.2 H 68.8 72.5 77.7 70.9 I 72.6 79.0 81.6 76.5
The first thing to note is that by getting better information about the Houston/not Houston distinction, I was able to shift about 100,000 votes that I had been counting as Houston out of that bucket and into the not-Houston bucket. Now instead of counting for about 57% of the total vote, the city of Houston now accounts for about 52% of the total, which is a much more accurate representation of the city to county population ratio. That’s also the reason why the Democrats’ share of the vote in each region went up, as the votes in question were less Democratic overall than the city of Houston share, but more so than the non-Houston share.
The biggest differences in the individual Council districts were in A, which shifted about six points in the Dems’ favor, and B, which moved about four points in that direction. District D also became a bit bluer, by about a point. That made District A much closer to parity, with Adrian Garcia carrying the district, and confirmed my initial suspicion, which I’d thought had been rebutted, that it is winnable this year by a Democrat. District E became about a point less Democratic, District G a tenth of a point less so; they were the only districts to move away from the Dems in this recalculation. All other districts remained about the same.
Anyway, that’s the revised data. Greg, who was correct to suspect that such a refinement would move the needle about two points overall inside Houston towards the Dems, has more.
Jim Sharp investiture
Jim Sharp, who was elected to the First Court of Appeals in November, has asked me to pass along an invitation to his investiture, which will be held this Thursday, February 12, at 4 PM in the Gerald Treece Courthouse at the South Texas College of Law downtown. Details can be found here (PDF). Enjoy!
Jim Sharp investiture
Jim Sharp, who was elected to the First Court of Appeals in November, has asked me to pass along an invitation to his investiture, which will be held this Thursday, February 12, at 4 PM in the Gerald Treece Courthouse at the South Texas College of Law downtown. Details can be found here (PDF). Enjoy!
Representative Walle
Really nice story in (somewhat oddly) the lifestyle section of the paper about freshman Rep. Armado Walle, who won the Democratic primary against long-term incumbent and former Craddick D Kevin Bailey last year. Walle has a great from-the-bootstraps story to tell and a track record of hard work and dedication that will make him a fine representative for HD140. I supported his candidacy, and I’m happy as heck to see him in Austin. Check it out.
Supreme Court declines to hear TDP’s appeal in voting machine suit
The U.S. Supreme Court refused Monday to revive the Texas Democratic Party’s lawsuit complaining that eSlate voting machines widely used in the state don’t properly record straight-party votes.
The court declined without comment to hear the case. Democrats had sued Texas and lost in lower-level federal courts.
[…]
Attorneys for the party argued that the voting machines, which are used in about 100 of the state’s 254 counties, are prone to undercounting votes in general elections if someone casts a straight-ticket ballot but then marks an individual candidate’s name, as if for emphasis. They said because the equipment doesn’t record votes the same as other machines, use of them is a violation of the U.S. Constitution.
The Texas Secretary of State’s Office has said that if a voter chooses a straight-ticket option first, but then goes through and pushes buttons for individual candidates on eSlate, those candidates are deselected and a vote for them won’t be cast. If a voter chooses individual candidates first, then decides to pick the straight-ticket box, all of that party’s candidates are selected.
All I can say is that my experience with the eSlate machine matches the SOS description of its behavior, and that I thought it was sufficiently obvious what was happening as to meet a reasonable standard for such things. There’s certainly room for the interface to be improved, and we won’t get into the issue of printed receipts, which I still think would be a fine idea, but I never bought the TDP’s argument in this one. A statement from TDP Chair Boyd Ritchie is beneath the fold.
Pierre claims uncounted votes in his lawsuit
Here’s an update on Democratic judicial candidate J. Goodwille Pierre, who filed a lawsuit in December claiming that votes were improperly rejected in his race, which he lost by 230 tallies to incumbent Judge Joseph “Tad” Halbach.
The Harris County Clerk’s Office sent [Shilonda R.] Williams a letter after the November election saying her ballot had been disqualified because there was no record of her voter registration.
But the bipartisan Early Ballot Board, formed to make final decisions on whether thousands of questioned ballots should have been counted, never got to deliver a verdict on whether Williams was missing from the registration list. The clerk’s office withheld Williams’ ballot from the referees because election workers apparently lost track of the electronic record of the choices she had marked on a voting machine.
Because there was no way to retrieve a record of her votes, it was uncertain Thursday whether her votes were rejected prematurely — or counted when they should not have been.
The ballot board, chaired by Republican retired business executive Jim Harding, rejected more than 5,000 ballots cast by people who were allowed to vote on the condition that questions about their registration status would have to be resolved weeks later. Each of those voters had to fill out a “provisional ballot affidavit,” swearing he or she was qualified to vote, before getting to touch a voting machine.
But more than 200 affidavits never made it through the system because there was no record of cast votes to go with them.
In some cases, people completed the affidavit without subsequently voting, according to ballot records. In others, election judges mistakenly gave provisional voters a code that allowed their votes to be recorded permanently, with no way for county workers or the ballot board to decide whether the votes should have been counted.
“My mistake — went through as a regular vote,” an election judge in northwest Houston wrote on a woman’s ballot.
But in Williams’ case and others, there was no ready explanation for why the clerk’s office said it never received a ballot along with the affidavit.
It’s clear from reading the story that there was some confusion over provisional ballots, and that some procedures might not have been followed completely. What’s not clear to me is whether you can say this necessarily had an effect on the outcome. I would think the only possible remedy if you accept Pierre’s arguments is a do-over. I don’t see that happening, but I guess that’s the judge’s headache. The case is apparently now being litigated in Montgomery County, and there’s no hearing date set yet. Makes me wonder if we’ll have a resolution before the 2010 filing deadline. Cory has more.
Walker withdraws election contest
That didn’t last long. Losing HD11 candidate Brian Walker has withdrawn his election challenge to State Rep. Chuck Hopson.
State Rep. Chuck Hopson says he’s home free. Hopson, D-Jacksonville, says he was notified by Speaker Tom Craddick’s office [Monday] afternoon that his November opponent, Republican Brian Walker, has withdrawn his election contest.
“We are pleased that this election has come to a conclusion,” said Hopson, first elected to the Texas House in 2000.
One less source of drama for the upcoming session, which didn’t need any more of that. Thanks to BOR for the heads up.
Election challenge in HD11
Brian Walker, the losing Republican challenger to State Rep. Chuck Hopson in the second closest election of the year in HD11, has filed paperwork for an election contest in the House. From the Quorum Report:
After the recount, Hopson beat Walker by more than 200 votes.
In his statement, Walker said, “The petition contains allegations of improper election procedures in Cherokee County that may have compromised the integrity of the election process. According to the Walker Campaign, an election contest is the only opportunity left for East Texas voters to get honest answers to some very troubling questions that were not answered before or during the recount process as well as a few that have arisen since. The allegations in the Petition for Election Contest are based on information provided by third parties to the Walker Campaign, first-hand observations by Walker campaign volunteers on Election Day, and first-hand observations by individuals overseeing the recount process in Cherokee County. The campaign is in the process of investigating each of the allegations individually to determine their level of merit.”
At first blush, this would appear to be Speaker politics games. However, law and precedent would have Hopson sworn in on the first day along with his colleagues. The only vote he would not be able to participate in would be on the Walker election contest challenge if it actually made it to the House floor many weeks down the road..
[…]
Attorney Buck Wood said, “With Walker down more than 200 votes they have absolutely no chance on this. I think it was purely defensive because they thought we might seek to contest the Linda Harper-Brown election and I would have if we had pulled ahead after re-considering the de-selected votes. But we didn’t.”
“I doubt they will even pursue this,” Wood said. “It would require proving systematic fraud.”
You’d think if that were the case they’d have gotten AG Greg Abbott and his crack staff of vote-fraud-sniffer-outers on the job. Be that as it may, the main point to note is that this will not have an effect on the math for the Speaker’s race. At least, assuming the Speaker’s race doesn’t drag out past the first couple of days or so, it won’t.
Vince notes that this is the first election challenge in the House since Talmadge Heflin tried to overturn Rep. Hubert Vo’s victory in 2005. I’d add that there were at one point a total of three election challenges in that cycle; the others were by Eric Opiela against Rep. Yvonne Gonzales Toreilles in HD35 and by former Rep. Jack Stick against Rep. Mark Strama in HD50. Stick dropped his challenge shortly thereafter, and Opiela followed suit before it got underway. My suspicion is that Walker’s challenge will dissolve before it begins, but you never know. Trail Blazers has more.
Huffman defeats Bell
Alas. The Democrats had the votes in November, but thanks to the Republican ringer, that wasn’t good enough. My sincere thanks to Chris Bell for all he did. He deserved better. Congratulations for Sen.-elect Joan Huffman on her victory. May she be unlike so many of her fellow Republicans and respect the people who voted for her by serving her full term in office.
UPDATE: Here’s Bell’s statement:
“I entered this race because I truly believe it is vital for us to change the overall direction of our state. Though we came up short tonight, I am very proud of the campaign we have run – a campaign that focused on the issues that matter to the people of Texas and Senate District 17.
I traveled across this district and visited with so many of its residents about the concerns they face. It only reinforced my belief that in order to create a brighter future for our kids, we must act now to implement real education and health care reform.
I want to thank all of my supporters and campaign volunteers who worked tirelessly to bring real reform to the Texas Senate. We could not have made it without your time, energy and commitment to this campaign and to the future of Texas.”
Today is Runoff Day
Well, this is it. Today is officially the last day of the Election 2008 cycle in Texas as Chris Bell goes up against Joan Huffman for SD17. I caught one of Huffman’s ads on the tube last night. It’s more than a little precious of someone who’s essentially a wholly-owned subsidiary of Texans for Lawsuit Reform to talk about “standing up to the lobby”, but there you have it. If you live in SD17 and haven’t voted for Bell yet, what are you waiting for? You can find your polling place here. Get out there and bring some friends. This is going to be a low-turnout affair – surely fewer than 40,000 votes, maybe fewer than 35,000, for something the size of a Congressional district. Your vote will never mean as much in SD17 as it will tomorrow. So please go vote for Chris Bell, and let’s make it a lucky number 13 in the Senate. Thanks very much.
Oh, and if you’re in a partying mood, Team Bell will be gathering tonight starting at 8 PM at Jimmy Wilson’s Restaurant, 5161 San Felipe in Houston. Have fun!
Some dirty tricks in the SD17 runoff
PDiddie reports:
Some Democrats — I am one — are getting late-night robo-calls (11:00pm-2:00am) about ethics complaints against an unnamed candidate in the SD-17 runoff. Since this slime is NOT coming from the Chris Bell campaign, it’s obviously the latest effort by the usual shadowy group of Republicans who used the same tactic of smear calls and websites on Huffman herself in the general election. The purpose is not to encourage support for Huffman but to simply discourage Democratic voters from going to the polls. The website mentioned in the call, www.texasethicsreport.com, is a poor ripoff of Drudge and is quite visibly shoddy and hastily thrown together. It contains a sham ethics complaint against Bell.
Several people who were at our house last night for Lights in the Heights reported receiving one of those calls as well. It’s a crappy and cowardly thing to do – probably illegal, too, though no one will ever suffer any consequences for it, even if the callers are ultimately identified. Just know that if this happens to you or to someone you know that it’s being done to Chris Bell, not by him.
Tuesday is Runoff Day for this race. Here’s how the early vote went:
County Total EV % of EV Harris 6,623 49.61% Fort Bend 3,101 23.23% Brazoria 2,006 15.03% Galveston 676 5.06% Jefferson 945 7.08% Total 13,351 100.00%
Here’s how those numbers compare to the November results:
County Total votes Vote % ================================ Harris 119,759 53.63% Fort Bend 62,095 27.83% Brazoria 21,218 9.50% Galveston 9,209 4.12% Jefferson 11,014 4.93% Total 13351 100.00%
Bell dominated in Jefferson, where he won a clear majority, and Galveston, where he won a near-majority, so the early vote totals in those counties are good news for him. Huffman was the leading vote-getter in Brazoria, so that’s good for her. Bell led in Harris and Fort Bend, so he would prefer to have those numbers get up a bit. Whatever the case, you still need to vote for Bell if you live in SD17, and exhort everyone you know who lives there to do so as well. You can also still make a donation or a phone call to help out. If not now, then when?
Gallegos and Van de Putte criticize DSCC
This will surely ruffle a few feathers.
Two prominent Hispanic Democratic officials from Texas harshly criticized an arm of their national party today for skipping over the state when it provided funding muscle for U.S. Senate candidates across the country.
State Sens. Mario Gallegos of Houston and Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio objected to the fact that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee collected contributions from Texans — $1.1 million at an event in San Antonio, for instance — without sending any to the campaign of outgoing state legislator Rick Noriega of Houston.
Noriega lost the Senate race in November to Republican incumbent John Cornyn, who raised $10 million during the campaign to $4 million for Noriega, according to federal records.
The Democratic committee’s decision to spend the money outside Texas “is shameful and disgraceful, and we will do everything we can to prevent this disrespect from happening again,” the two state senators wrote.
“For the face of the U.S. Senate to represent the true face of America, we must all work together to invest in quality candidates such as Rick Noriega, not take a walk when our candidate is not a member of the millionaires’ club,” they added.
Noriega, too, is Hispanic, and Gallegos and Van de Putte implied in their letter that ethnicity figured into the national Democratic strategy.
“Rick Noriega has an impeccable pedigree to run in Texas. He is an old-fashioned Democrat — a family man, a man of faith, a combat-decorated veteran, a legislator, with an Ivy-league education and time spent defending the border,” they wrote. “He has a heart for the people, impeccable Democratic credentials and is an awesome retail campaigner. To some who chose to sit on the sidelines in this election, those characteristics were apparently not enough — he is not wealthy or white. We have always believed Democrats are better than that.”
The pair also wrote, “The heat of election night had not cooled before the speculation began about DSCC support for several Anglo candidates in future races. This is not only disrespectful; it’s shameful.”
The full letter is here (PDF); it’s also being discussed at BOR. That $1.1 million fundraiser was organized by Mikal Watts at Sen. Schumer’s request on behalf of the DSCC.
There’s a lot to be said here, and I think you all know how frustrated I felt this year at the lack of support outside the netroots for Noriega. There’s plenty of blame to go around, not just to the DSCC. I think once the Obama campaign decided to focus its resources elsewhere and use the energy and dollars of its Texas supporters in other states, there was little chance that Noriega would get much attention from the state and national establishment. The DNC and its Fifty State Strategy have invested in Texas in recent years, but I think it’s safe to say that other states have received a larger dividend. As described in John Spong’s Texas Monthly article from awhile back, there were plenty of bigtime Democratic fundraisers in the state who did precious little to help Noriega, especially early on when better initial fundraising numbers would have given him some momentum. And yes, as also described in that article, Noriega himself could have done a lot better on this front. As with all unsuccessful campaigns, there’s never just one reason for it.
And not to put too fine a point on it, but every Democrat in Texas who has given to a campaign or campaign committee outside of Texas bears some of the blame, too. What do you think might happen if the next time the DSCC asks for support here they’re told “Not until we start getting a fair shake”? It’s clear from reading Glen Maxey’s account of that $1.1 million fundraiser that there was a belief this was a down payment on an investment in Texas by the national folks. Either that was a lie, or it was wishful thinking based on noncommittal statements. I understand that it’s the DSCC’s job to win Senate races, not to build state party infrastructure. They’ve done quite well at that job in recent years, too. It’s our job to win races in Texas, and where that comes in conflict with what the DSCC and its brethren want to do, it’s up to us to decide what we want to do about that. I hope that message is received as well as the one being delivered to Sens. Menendez, Salazar, et al. Stace has more.
Dems drop legal challenge to Harper-Brown
The recount in HD105 is over, and now so is the legal wrangling, at least as far as the outcome of that race is concerned.
State Democrats will not seek a restraining order against Dallas County elections officials over votes they believe should have been counted in the tight state House District 105 race, a Democratic Party attorney said Tuesday. They also will not seek to have the election voided or a new one ordered.
The decisions remove courtroom challenges to three-term Republican incumbent Linda Harper-Brown taking her seat when the Legislature convenes next month. Her district covers most of Irving.
[…]
State Democrats, meanwhile, still plan to pursue the lawsuit against Dallas County elections officials over electronic voting machines.
“What we seek is to fix it so everyone’s votes count in the future, so the machine can’t do what it did this time,” said Clay Jenkins, an attorney for Mr. Romano.
He’s talking about “emphasis votes” here. You know how I feel about that, so let me just say that whatever the merits of this suit are, it’s not a bad idea to clarify the rules and make sure everyone knows what gets counted and what doesn’t. I think that’s the Legislature’s job, but I don’t mind them being spurred on by a lawsuit. I also think there’s room for improvement and standardization in voting machine interfaces, which ought to help reduce any voter confusion about “emphasis” voting, and if that comes out of this suit, then that will be a good thing.
One last point:
Mr. Jenkins said poll watchers found several instances of “emphasis” or “deselected” votes during a recount in the race last week, but not enough to change the outcome of the race.
As it happens, I just received a spreadsheet from reader Blank, who did a thorough analysis of precinct data in Dallas and Tarrant counties. According to Blank, Barack Obama won HD105 with 52.1% of the vote. Rick Noriega trailed John Cornyn in HD105 by 24 votes, which is to say a margin almost identical to Harper-Brown’s lead over Romano. Whatever you think about the whole “emphasis votes” thing, this was definitely a winnable seat. Maybe next time.
One hundred feet
Joan Huffman’s campaign for state Senate appears to have broken the law against campaigning on property where voting is taking place, Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman said today.
Republican Huffman, opposing Democrat Chris Bell in next Tuesday’s state Senate District 17 runoff, hosted a barbecue luncheon for voters today inside the Tracey Gee Community Center in far west Houston. Early voting in the state Senate election is taking place through Friday in another room in the same building.
Commissioner Steve Radack, a Republican, said he attended the luncheon along with Huffman and urged people to vote for her. She is a former felony court judge.
Under state law, it is a Class C misdemeanor, punishable by a fine of up to $500, to campaign for or against a candidate “within 100 feet of an outside door through which a voter may enter the building in which a polling place is located.”
You’d think someone who used to be a judge would know the law better than that. Especially since there are big signs posted everywhere telling you that beyond this line no campaigning may take place. On the other hand, she did have Steve Radack there telling her everything was kosher, and what could possibly go wrong with that? Anyway, there will be a complaint filed. I can hear Pat Lykos grinding her teeth already.
Tomorrow is the last day of early voting. If you have any time at all to spare, please consider doing a little virtual phonebanking to help Chris Bell. If Bell can do it, so can you. Thanks very much.
Lawsuit filed over rejected voter registrations
J. Goodwille Pierre, who lost his Harris County judicial race by 230 votes, has filed a lawsuit claiming that improperly rejected voter registrations and provisional ballots cost him that election.
[H]is lawsuit focuses instead on Harris County voting controversies being aired in a separate federal lawsuit brought against the county by the Texas Democratic Party.
Both suits now allege that outgoing Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt, a Republican who also serves as voter registrar, rejected legitimate voter registration applications.
Pierre’s lawsuit also cites a non-partisan ballots board’s rejection of about 5,800 ballots cast by voters who, according to records from Bettencourt’s office and other agencies, had not been properly registered. The ballot board chairman said some of the ballots, after being processed by Bettencourt’s staff, had information obscured by correction fluid.
“Had all persons who cast a vote in this race been allowed to have their vote counted; it would have changed the outcome of the election by providing Pierre with more votes than Joseph “Tad” Halbach,” the suit said. “Moreover, various irregularities make it impossible to ascertain the true outcome of the election.”
The case number is 200872747 – you can go here and search on that number to find the details of the suit. There were no associated documents when I looked, so there’s not much to see right now. Somewhat ironically, the judge assigned to this case is Patricia Kerrigan in the 190th Civil Court; next to Halbach and his 230-vote margin, Kerrigan had the closest win among the incumbents, beating Andres Pereira by 2,440 votes. I have no idea how likely this suit is to be successful, but it’s another arrow being aimed at Paul Bettencourt. Maybe he really did get while the getting was good.
On that note, the Lone Star Project takes a look at the Bettencourt business:
Less than six weeks after asking Harris County voters for another four-year term as Tax Assessor Collector, Republican Paul Bettencourt is bailing out on them – perhaps to avoid answering legal questions about pending litigation charging him with illegal partisan activity. Bettencourt’s resignation comes just one day after a federal court was asked to schedule a deposition to require him to testify under oath about his involvement in alleged partisan efforts to avoid counting thousands of provisional ballots cast during the November General Election.
In a press statement made very late Friday, December 5th, Bettencourt made no mention of the pending legal complaint, but instead said he was leaving office to accept a lucrative offer from the private sector. (Houston Chronicle, December 6, 2008) He refused, however, to identify his new employer and failed to comment on the terms of the offer, stating that providing the name of his new employer would violate conflict of interest statutes.
Using some very “creative” logic, Bettencourt rationalized that identifying his new employer now would create a conflict of interest, but that it was okay to meet with and negotiate an employment agreement with the employer while he was a county officeholder in the midst of an election campaign. Bettencourt’s backroom deal deserves even more scrutiny after ABC13’s Miya Shay speculated that Bettencourt will, “be fighting people’s property tax hikes for a fee.” ( ABC13 Political Blog )
Miya didn’t so much speculate as write that “those in the know” say he’ll be doing that. Maybe that’s just speculation once removed, and maybe “those in the know” really do know something. It is kind of weird that Bettencourt won’t say who he’s going to be working for – as the LSP goes on to ask, if that constitutes a potential conflict of interest, then wouldn’t the discussions he was having with this mystery firm, back when he still was the Tax Assessor, also a conflict of interest? And, something I’m unclear on, if he’s resigned why does he have to stick around until a successor is named? Surely the office can run itself for a couple of weeks without him – I’m sure he’s taken a vacation or two in his tenure, and there must be a contingency for situations where the Tax Assessor dies or is otherwise unable to serve. So why not just let him walk so we can finally find out who his new boss is? I don’t get it.
Followup on the Libertarian effect in the House
In addition to the possible HGLBT endorsement backlash effect, another thing I talked about before the election that I said I’d look at again afterward was the Libertarian effect on the State House. You may recall that an emissary for Tom Craddick spoke to a couple of Libertarian Party candidates to encourage them to drop out of their State House races, on the theory that this would give the GOP better odds of winning those races and thus maintaining Craddick’s stranglehold on power. How did that play out in practice?
Well, as noted before, between 2000 and 2004, there were a grand total of 24 LP candidates in State House races that had both major parties. Those 24 candidates averaged 2.68% of the vote. In 2006, there was a huge jump, to 46 Lib candidates in three-way races, and they collected 3.56% per race. This year, there were 44 such candidates, and by my calculation their mean level of support was 2.75%. In other words, back to historic norms, and evidence for my suspicion that Democrats would do a better job of converting anti-R votes into actual Democratic votes.
(Further evidence: In the seven statewide campaigns this year excluding the Presidential race that were three-ways, the Libertarians got 3.01%. In 2006, in eight races with a Lib – not counting the Governor’s race where there were other more viable options for a nonstandard vote – the Libs took 3.62%.)
In 2006, there were six House candidates who won with less than a majority of the vote. This year, despite the near-equal number of Libs running, there were only two such races. They are:
State Representative District 11 Brian K. Walker REP 13,928 48.78% 25,928 49.07% Chuck Hopson DEM 14,191 49.71% 26,030 49.27% Paul Bryan LIB 428 1.49% 872 1.65%
That was the second-closest race overall, with only the weird HD105 contest in Dallas being narrower. It would be easy to say that the Libertarian candidate helped incumbent Rep. Chuck Hopson escape with his razor-thin win here. For what it’s worth, I think Libs tend to hurt incumbent Republicans and Republican candidates in open seat races, but I think that effect is minimized in races with incumbent Democrats. I just think that if you’re casting a “protest” votes, that protest is aimed at the party in power more than the challenging party. I could be wrong about this – it’s just a hunch, I have no data to back this up – but that’s how I see it.
Of course, in any race with a Libertarian, that Libertarian is going to get some votes on his own merits. In Harris County, 4017 people, or about 161 per State House district, cast straight-party Libertarian ballots. 6783 people voted for the Bob Barr/Wayne Root Presidential ticket; if you assume those folks who weren’t straight-party voters nonethless pushed the L button when that was an option, that’s 271 votes per district. Point being, some of the people who voted for Paul Bryan in HD10 would have always voted for him, and if there had been no Libertarian option, some of them would have skipped the race. As close as this one was, Hopson might have won it regardless of Bryan’s presence.
The other House race:
State Representative District 52 Bryan Daniel REP 23,110 46.43% 33,821 47.42% Diana Maldonado DEM 24,993 50.21% 34,668 48.61% Lillian Simmons LIB 1,670 3.35% 2,825 3.96%
That’s a result more like what we saw in some key races in 2006, and it’s much easier to see the L vote here in this formerly-Republican held seat as a non-vote for Bryan Daniel. Maldonado would have needed about 35% of Lillian Simmons’ total to break 50%. I think she’d have been a favorite regardless, but it certainly didn’t hurt her to have Simmons in the race.
As it happens, there was one more race that featured a Libertarian candidate and a non-majority winner:
State Senator, District 10 Kim Brimer REP 102,185 46.58% 140,613 47.54% Wendy R. Davis DEM 112,504 51.29% 147,561 49.89% Richard Cross LIB 4,656 2.12% 7,584 2.56%
As it only would have required Davis to take 319 of Cross’ votes to move over 50%, I think it’s safe to say she had this won under any scenario. I present it here in the interest of completeness.
Finally, what about the three races in which the GOP tried to get the Libertarian candidate to drop out? They succeeded in HD47, where first-term Rep. Valinda Bolton wound up winning by a 2000 vote margin, 51.2% to 48.8%. The two races where they tried and failed were HDs 09, where Republican incumbent Wayne Christian cruised to re-election by a 62.7-35.4 margin, and 64, where Rep. Myra Crownover won 56.0 to 38.7. In the latter case, the Libertarian candidate got over 5% of the vote, which I’d probably chalk up to Republican dissatisfaction. Hopefully some day those votes will be pro-Dem and not just anti-GOP.
Get on the bus for Bell
Are you in Austin wishing you could be in Houston to help Chris Bell?, Well, your wish has come true.
The Travis County Democratic Party and Education Austin are proud to help Congressman Chris Bell by providing a blockwalking bus from Austin to Houston this Saturday December 13.
The free Bus trip leaves at 6:15am at AFL-CIO at 11th and Lavaca this Saturday December 13. Breakfast, coffee and a movie will be provided on the bus. Once in Chris Bell’s district outside of Houston, we will meet with Congressman Bell and then blockwalk his district. We’ll return to Austin by 7pm, enjoying dinner on the way back. Chris Bell’s victory in the Texas Senate will help our fight for issues that matter to us–public schools, choice, clean air and clean water, and even the simple right to vote in Texas.
Call 477-7500 to reserve your spot on the bus today. Or click here to give us your phone and email and we’ll follow up with you.
We promise, the weather here will be much better than what you’re seeing in Austin today. No sleet or snow!
Meanwhile, here’s an update on the money race:
TLR founder Richard Weekley and brother David Weekley each gave Huffman, a former judge, at least $100,000, as did Houston Texans owner Bob McNair. TLR supporter Bob Perry, of Perry Homes, and his wife, Doylene, gave Huffman a total of $125,000.
Bell, a lawyer-lobbyist, has received at least $260,000 from Texans For Insurance Reform, which largely is funded by plaintiffs’ lawyers who oppose tort reform. Bell also recently got $100,000 from lawyer Mikal Watts.
Democratic U.S. Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, Gene Green, Al Green, Nick Lampson and Ciro Rodriguez each moved $4,000 or more to Bell’s campaign treasury from theirs.
Both candidates are on the air, but as Huffman has more money, she can do more of that. Your effort is at least as important as your dollars, but your dollars sure do help, too.
In case you missed it, here’s the transcript from that live chat the Chron did with Bell and Huffman yesterday. Kudos to them for doing this, it’s a great idea. May we see more of it next year for the Houston municipal elections.
Finally, here’s a little holiday-themed message for the runoff:
Early voting has two more days to go, with hours extended from 7 to 7. If you haven’t voted yet, please make sure you do so. Thanks very much.
Precinct analysis: North by northwest
I’ve speculated that there won’t be much Congressional action in Harris County in 2010. Certainly, CD22 is unlikely to be seriously challenged, and I doubt anyone will have the stomach or the wallet to make like Michael Skelly in CD07, even though he did move the ball forward a considerable amount there. Where I hope to be wrong in this prognostication is in CD10, and I hope that in being wrong, the focus of that district is right here in Harris County. I’m going to try to make a case for that in this post.
To see why this is, let’s take a look at where the vote is in CD10. Here’s the relative share of the vote from Travis and Harris for the history of this version of CD10.
Year Total votes Harris Pct Travis Pct ================================================ 2004 286,376 113,873 39.8 116,698 40.7 2006 169,127 63,665 37.6 69,927 41.3 2008 323,212 141,970 43.9 122,418 37.9 2010* 190,881 79,374 41.6 73,355 38.4
I’m projecting 2010 based on the assumption that its ratio to the 2008 vote totals will be the same as 2006’s was to 2004. The point to note here is that Harris is now the biggest component of this district. That would be very bad news if the Harris portion of the district was as red as it was in 2004; it was the thought of that bright crimson patch of real estate that scared every potential Democratic challenger away in that first year of this district’s existence. But things don’t always go as planned. Here’s how Democratic performance has been since then:
High D Harris Pct Diff Travis Pct Diff ================================================== 2004 27,049 24.9 -54,657 68,163 61.4 25,242 2006 18,389 29.3 -22,451 42,845 62.7 17,366 2008* 52,481 36.4 -39,285 77,201 63.1 31,984 2010** 31,750 40.0 -15,874 46,947 64.0 20,539
“High D” represents the top Democratic performer for each part of the district; all numbers are for two-party totals only. For 2004, that was Kathy Stone in Harris and Margaret Cooper in Travis. (Charlie Baird actually had a higher vote total, but Cooper had the bigger differential.) For 2006 it was Bill Moody in each; I daresay Jim Sharp did a point or so better in Harris, but I’ve somehow lost his numbers, so Moody will have to do. And for 2008, it was Adrian Garcia (using the draft canvass) in Harris, and I’ve got Larry Joe Doherty’s numbers for Travis since I don’t have precinct data there, but he’s likely to be near if not at the top. 2010 is again a projection, using the estimated turnout from before, and my own vote targets. I think if a Democratic candidate can meet those targets, he or she can get to 50% plus one.
The key, as I see it, is Harris. Garcia set a pretty high bar, and you can argue that his circumstances were unique, but the point is that even without trying, Democrats improved significantly over 2004. Doherty got a smidge less than 31%, and Kathy Stone garnered 32%. All of this was done without much – if there was anything – in the way of a ground game. Basically, the district covers HDs 126, 130, 132, 150, and two strongly Republican precincts in 149 – in other words, two uncontested State Rep districts, and two that may as well have been. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that performance could have been improved had there been a concerted effort in that area.
Note, by the way, that I don’t intend this as a knock on the coordinated campaign for the HCDP, or on Doherty’s campaign, which focused more on Travis on the perfectly reasonable grounds that Travis had seen the greater share of the vote in previous elections. I hadn’t realized the change in proportions until I started doing this analysis. The Democratic message did get out there in that part of Harris, and it was received by a bunch of those mostly new voters. Look at it this way: There were about 28,000 more votes cast in 2008 than in 2004, and 25,000 of them went to Adrian Garcia. Doherty’s total in Harris of 43,624 still represents a 16,600 vote gain over Stone from 2004, which is plenty more than half the new vote total. None of that happened by accident. As I said before, I see Garcia’s totals as what’s possible, and what can be built on going forward. Perhaps it’s a lofty goal, but I don’t see it as unattainable. For sure, we’ll never know unless we try.
My prescription, then, for someone who might want to take a crack at this, is to focus most of the energy on Harris. Start now by beating the bushes to find candidates for the four State House districts, with 126 and 132 being the top priorities. Prepare to spend some time in the smaller counties, especially Austin, Washington, and Waller; the first two should see a bigger drop in GOP turnout in the off year, and the latter has a chance of going blue for you. Even in the rosy scenario I’ve painted above, you could still lose the race by getting creamed in the smaller counties, so don’t overlook them. Hope to ride some coattails in Travis unless you’ve really got a big budget. Put it all together, and I think you have a fighting chance. And if you fall short, well, you’ll be in position for whatever happens after the 2011 redistricting. Even if CD10 morphs again, there’ll be something out west in Harris County to run for.
Precinct analysis: The appeals courts
Somewhat lost in the shuffle of the near-Democratic sweep of the Harris County judiciary this year was the near miss in the five races for the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals, which cover Harris and nine surrounding counties. Jim Sharp won his race on his third attempt at one of those benches, while four other Democratic candidates fell just short, winning between 48.38 and 49.35% of the vote. I have a Google spreadsheet that summarizes these races on a county-by-county basis, with their companion races going back to 2002. A few things we learn from this:
– Harris County is still the most important county in these races. In fact, it was the only county carried by any of the Democrats, though Fort Bend and Waller were very close. Earlier this year, I wrote the following:
As I see it, 51% in Harris County will require a strong effort elsewhere (Sharp had 48% elsewhere in 2006) to be competitive. A 52% showing in Harris puts you well within range. Win 53% in Harris, and you’ll almost be surely be called Your Honor at this time next year.
Jim Sharp got 52.65% in Harris County, and 50.58% overall. Next in line was Martin Siegel, who got 51.73% in Harris and 49.35% overall. I’d say that was a pretty good projection on my part.
– Having said that, Harris wasn’t the be-all and end-all to these races. Sharp’s margin of victory in Harris was about 59,000 votes. That would have been enough to barely carry Siegel across the finish line, with Joe Beverly and Mary Markantonis falling just short. It still would have left Bert Moser and Leslie Taylor out in the cold by a few thousand votes. Where the Democrats needed a big win in Harris to have a chance, the Republicans rode big wins in Brazoria County to keep them at bay. In Moser and Taylor’s cases, their deficit in Brazoria was bigger than their surplus in Harris, despite the fact that Brazoria’s voter pool was one-tenth the size of Harris’. Brazoria was slightly bluer overall and for the most part at the Appeals Court level in 2008 compared to 2004, but with more voters, so the total gap got a bit wider. Holding down the margin in Brazoria looks to be as important as running up the score in Harris if you want to win as a Democrat.
– The other two big counties are going in opposite directions. Fort Bend was nearly 50-50 this year, after being a 55-45 Republican county in 2004. I believe the appeals court candidates can carry Fort Bend in 2010 and beyond, which will make their jobs easier. Even better, given Fort Bend’s growth (193,000 votes cast in appellate races in 2008, compared to 154,000 in 2004), a blue Fort Bend means there’s that much less room for Republican candidates to make up ground elsewhere. One of those places is Galveston, which has been trending away from the Democrats in recent years. Part of that this year was Hurricane Ike’s effect on the island, but a big driver of it is growth in suburban-Houston areas like Friendswood. I believe Galveston will continue to redden, at least in the short term. Right now, its voting population plus Brazoria’s is about equal to Fort Bend’s. Even if Fort Bend goes blue next cycle, these three counties will be net red barring anything unusual for the foreseeable future. Again, minimizing the amount by which they are red will be greatly helpful to Democratic hopefuls.
– It’s hard to draw a conclusion based on the results from 2006, but I think the turnout model will be favorable to Democrats in 2010. The small rural counties were considerably redder this year than in 06 – I don’t know if this was an anti-Obama effect or just how it is normally, but the off-year status of the next election will lessen the Republican total. Brazoria and Galveston were a lot friendlier to Dems in 2006 as well. I think it’s critical that the Dems ensure all these races have good candidates in 2010, because I believe they will be very winnable. Putting some resources into Brazoria, Fort Bend, and Galveston would go a long way.
Early voting is going on now in SD17
Today is Day Two of early voting in the SD17 runoff, which continues through Friday. As a reminder, you can find early voting locations for Harris County here, and for Fort Bend County here; locations for Galveston County are at the end of this story. If you just want to help get people to the polls, you can do virtual phonebanking. We can win this, but it’s going to take a full-on effort. Please do what you can.
Big Jolly has an interesting analysis of the race so far.
Question is, will this election be decided by the so called ‘critical middle’ or by motivating and turning out the base of each party? Typically, it is the latter that decides runoff elecitons.
Ms. Huffman seems to be focusing on the core conservative base. In a recent radio appearance, she focused on illegal immigration, property tax appraisal caps, cutting spending and abortion. When asked what she would cut, she replied something to the effect of cutting the waste from the bureaucracy.
Mr. Bell seems to be focusing on the ‘critical middle’. His website features special pages on both education and health care, with detailed analysis of each. In an unusual move for a Texas politician, Mr. Bell wears his support for abortion rights on his sleeve, forcefully making his case for stem cell research and funding for Planned Parenthood. Recall when he and his wife Alison hosted a fundraiser for Planned Parenthood of Houston and South East Texas which raised $220,000.
In the HRC poll, abortion and illegal immigration are non-issues for the ‘critical middle’ but education and health care are major ones. They do care about property taxes, even more so than the conservative base (see the report, page 37, slide 36).
I’ve finally had a chance to read through the poll memo, which provides quite a bit of food for thought. That’s for another day, but for now, I’ll say that the Democratic base is fully engaged on Bell’s behalf, at least if the nonstop flow of “We need to help Chris Bell” emails and Facebook messages I’ve been receiving is any indicator. If being right on the issues is a help in this kind of race, then that’s in Bell’s favor as well. I certainly hope so.
Speaking of issues, the Chron’s Houston Politics blog will be hosting a live chat with Bell and Huffman tomorrow at noon – see here for details. I presume the chat link will be at the top of the page. Drop in and ask them some questions. And please, make sure you vote for Chris Bell if you live in the district. Thanks very much.
Bettencourt speaks
The Chron is finally able to reach Paul Bettencourt for a comment on his sudden resignation.
“I’ve had a wonderful 10 years of service with great people at the office who have done good things for the taxpayers of Harris County,” Bettencourt, 50, said Saturday, a day after word of his planned departure was leaked to the media and broken on the late-night news.
“But there comes a time when you decide that further challenges await you and that you know you need to accept those challenges before maybe you get to the age where someone won’t offer you the opportunity,” he said.
It is almost unheard of for an incumbent to resign before being sworn in to his new term, Rice University political scientist Bob Stein said. The timing of Bettencourt’s decision was suspect, he said, because a lesser-known Republican might have struggled to win in a year Democrats so heavily dominated countywide elections.
Bettencourt said he first entertained the idea of leaving the county during the summer, well after the GOP primary, when it looked like he and every other Republican in Harris County were headed for defeat. But he insisted no serious discussions about the offer he chose to accept occurred before the Nov. 4 election.
“This business venture is something that took shape after the election and not before,” he said.
“You can always think pie in the sky, what do I do if the election doesn’t turn out your way. It’s another thing to have a thought like that and be approached to have a discussion about a new business venture.”
You know what? I’ve decided I don’t actually care whether this job came along before or after the election. I just want to know, does the fact of his election and his presumed commitment to the people who voted for him not mean anything? I realize it’s a quaint concept these days, but do the words “public service” not ring any bells for him, or for his predecessor in skipping out, Robert Eckels? Maybe the campaign theme for Harris County Democrats in 2010 ought to be “If Elected, I Promise To Actually Stay On The Job”. I’ll say again, I’m thrilled to see the back of Paul Bettencourt, but I remain stunned and appalled at the cavalierness and selfishness he displays here. Though I doubt he has the capacity for it, he ought to be ashamed of himself.
Bettencourt declined to discuss the job he was taking, saying the state Board of Tax Professional Examiners bars him from endorsing a business while he remains in office. He said he hopes to boost his salary of $141,000 a year but may not be able to if the venture is unsuccessful.
[…]
Last month, the Harris County Democratic Party sued Bettencourt, complaining of his handling of about 7,000 provisional ballots cast in the Nov. 4 election and accusing him of illegally rejecting voter registration applications. He has denied any wrongdoing.
The controversy, he said Saturday, played no role in his decision to leave the county post.
I highlight this part of the story because of Paul Burka‘s comment in my previous post, in which he points out that Bettencourt might be thinking of the potential legal bills he could be faced with defending himself from that lawsuit. Given what we saw with the Nathan Hecht experience, I can certainly appreciate that concern. However, it sounds like Bettencourt is leaving for a potentially risky venture, which doesn’t strike me as being consistent with that kind of concern. Further, I say there’s no way that the state Republican establishment would have let Bettencourt hang out to dry on this, especially if the case turned into a project of the Obama Justice Department as Burka speculates it could. The GOP money people saved Bill Ceverha’s bacon in a similar situation. They totally would have had Bettencourt’s back, and I know he knew that. So while that’s an interesting idea, I still don’t agree with it.
Endorsement watch: Bell again
The Chron re-endorses Chris Bell in the runoff for SD17.
With his commitment to bolstering public education, reining in college tuition increases, and controlling skyrocketing insurance premiums, the Chronicle believes that Chris Bell is the best candidate to represent the diverse district in the Texas Senate.
Bell served two full terms on Houston City Council and one term as a congressman before losing to Al Green in a redrawn district. He was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006, coming in second in a four-candidate field behind Republican Rick Perry.
While on City Council Bell chaired the ethics panel that drew up new guidelines regulating campaign contributions and the activities of lobbyists. While in Congress, he filed ethics complaints against then-Majority Leader Tom DeLay, presaging DeLay’s eventual resignation.
[…]
Bell, a former news reporter and practicing lawyer, says his previous political experience has educated him about the concerns of Texans. According to Bell, “even before Hurricane Ike hit and even before the meltdown on Wall Street, people here in Texas were starting to feel a sense of insecurity, seeing school districts forced into crisis funding modes.” He promises to make education issues a top early priority if elected, while working to create coalitions with members of both parties.
District 17 will benefit from being represented by a veteran elected official with statewide name recognition and a proven commitment to high ethical standards. The Chronicle urges constituents to make a special effort to go to the polls and cast their ballots for Bell.
Bell is clearly best on the issues, and the Senate will be a much better place with him in it. But this is a runoff, and stuff like that isn’t what drives elections like this. It’s all about turnout
Lawmakers designed District 17 to lean Republican. And low-turnout elections often provide Republicans with an edge. Democrats, pointing to the fact that Bell and Democrat Stephanie Simmons combined won a majority of the Nov. 4 vote, say change is afoot.
“This has been an unusual year, politically. I don’t think there are any prior elections that we can use necessarily as a model to predict who will come out in higher numbers in this election,” said Huffman, who lives in Southside Place. “I am working very hard and asking voters to come back out to vote for me.”
Houstonian Bell, referring to his efforts cajoling Democratic voters to return to the polls, said, “It really comes down to who has a better ‘ground game,’ and I am willing to bet that we do.”
Once again, you can help with that ground game. First things first, though – make sure that you yourself get out and vote if you’re a resident of SD17. If you’re not sure, or if someone who isn’t sure about himself asks you, go to http://www.fyi.legis.state.tx.us/ and plug in your address to find out. And if you’ve got a little spare change that’s burning a hole in your pocket, you can make a donation to Team Bell. Whatever you can do to help, please do it. Thanks very much.