Tag Archives: Election 2008

Time for another chat about voter registration and turnout

Posted on November 20, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s do it. Texas Democrats came away from Beto O’Rourke’s surprisingly narrow 2018 defeat to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with a simple plan: register to vote the millions of nonvoting Texans that demographics suggest lean Democrat and electoral victories will … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Inside and out of the city

Posted on January 17, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Most years we don’t get the data to differentiate between votes cast by residents of Houston and votes cast by Harris County non-Houston residents. There needs to be a citywide referendum of the ballot in order to get at this … Continue reading →

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State and county election result relationships: Tarrant County

Posted on December 12, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In years past, Tarrant County was a pretty close bellwether for election results in the state of Texas. From 2004 through 2016, the closeness of their Presidential numbers with the statewide numbers was eerie. But since 2018 the talk has … Continue reading →

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Christopher Busby: The Case for Texas Democratic Optimism

Posted on November 17, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

(Note: The following is a guest post that was submitted to me. I occasionally solicit guest posts, and also occasionally accept them from people I trust.) The election came and went with a similar story. Texas Democrats just started to … Continue reading →

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State and county election result relationships, part 4: What happened in 2022

Posted on November 15, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Now that the final totals are in, let’s go back and do the same exercise in comparing overall results for statewide candidates to the results they got in Harris County, and then from there … Continue reading →

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In which Harris County Republicans look for moral victories

Posted on November 13, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Believe me, as a Texas Democrat and a longtime fan of the Rice Owls, I know what it looks like to search for moral victories in the face of defeat. It looks like this. Harris County Republicans on Tuesday posted … Continue reading →

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State and county election result relationships, part 3: Other county races

Posted on October 21, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Part One Part Two Last time we looked at judicial races, which for all of the complaints about not knowing the candidates and just going by partisan labels have produced a consistent range of outcomes over the years. Some people … Continue reading →

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State and county election result relationships, part 2: Judicial races

Posted on October 20, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In Part One of this series, we looked at the relationship between statewide results and Harris County results for statewide candidates. In the last three elections, statewide Democratic candidates have done on average more than nine points better in Harris … Continue reading →

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State and county election result relationships, part 1: How Harris compares

Posted on October 18, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the relationship between how statewide Democratic candidates do in Harris County versus how they do overall, and what that might tell us about the state of play in Harris County. Since I started … Continue reading →

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Texas Two-Step (TM)

Posted on August 8, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

What a tale. After two years experimenting with an old Persian family technique using grains and raisins, Ali Ansari finally nailed his new vodka recipe. He poured $4 million into building a distillery outside of Houston and branded his drink … Continue reading →

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I’m not sure I want us to be an early Presidential primary state

Posted on April 22, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

We’re pretty early already. I’m fine with that. The Texas Democratic Party is planning to apply to be one of the first states to vote on the 2024 presidential nomination. The Democratic National Committee recently decided to allow new states … Continue reading →

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Final 2022 primary early voting totals

Posted on February 27, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

It’s been a strange two weeks for early voting, so let’s get to the wrapup. Here are your final early voting totals. The table for comparison: Election Mail Early Total ================================ 2018 D 22,695 70,152 92,847 2018 R 24,500 61,425 … Continue reading →

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Beto and South Texas

Posted on December 3, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Brace yourself for a lot of stories like this in the coming months. In the first days of his campaign for governor, Beto O’Rourke made a beeline to this southernmost corner of the state, saying it was no mistake he … Continue reading →

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November 2021 final early voting totals

Posted on October 31, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

A busy final day, and a significant uptick in early votes over 2017. Friday was the last day to vote early in the 2021 school board and state constitutional amendment elections with early numbers showing an uptick in turnout in … Continue reading →

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2021 Day Seven EV report: After the weekend

Posted on October 26, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s get right to it: These are the early voting totals for the 2021 election after Sunday: Mail ballots: 36,517 In person: 19,901 You can see the full Day Seven report here. The “voters by type” breakdown on the last … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State House district changes by county

Posted on July 6, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading →

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Let’s get rid of Democratic appellate court justices

Posted on April 3, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

If that’s the Legislature’s goal, then this would be an effective way of accomplishing it. A Texas Senate committee [heard] public comment Thursday on a controversial proposal to consolidate the state’s 14 intermediate appellate courts into just seven, a move … Continue reading →

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What is the direction of voting by mail?

Posted on January 13, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

It was different in 2020, but that doesn’t mean it’s permanently different. Democratic voters in Texas were more likely to cast their ballots by mail than Republican voters in the last election. Today, that may sound like a forgone conclusion, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Appellate courts, part 1

Posted on December 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions My next two posts in this series will focus on the 1st and 14th Courts of Appeals. These courts are a little strange … Continue reading →

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So now we start to prep for redistricting

Posted on November 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s gonna make for a long session, or more likely sessions. Wielding the map-drawing power will not be entirely painless for Republicans, who have seen their grip on dozens of state and federal districts erode since the last round of … Continue reading →

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A closer look at county races, Part 2

Posted on November 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part One is here. As before, this is about taking a closer look at the counties where Democrats made gains from 2016. Collin County: Our reach may have exceeded our grasp, but it’s important to note that progress was made. … Continue reading →

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The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eighteen: Records were broken

Posted on October 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I skipped Day Seventeen, but since the daily EV totals came in at a more manageable hour last night (since early voting once again ceased at 7 PM), I was able to get the latest totals in. So … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Sixteen: All through the night

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This post is scheduled to publish before 5 AM today. When that happens, voting will still be happening in Harris County. In Harris County this year, residents can vote where the Rockets or Texans play, from the comfort or their … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fifteen: Now with evening hours

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In case you haven’t heard, Texas is in play. It’s six days from a presidential election, and the anchor of the Republican Electoral College coalition—Texas—is a toss-up. That is not just us being goofballs and throwing around dramatic words. “Toss-up” … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fourteen: Where will we end up?

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Because we like starting with tweets: . Welp. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) 5:58 PM – 25 October 2020 That was from Sunday, after the UT-Tyler poll was factored in. As you may know, there have been two polls released … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Thirteen: In the home stretch

Posted on October 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Twitter time: . According to the Texas Secretary of State, 7,193,582 Texans had voted as of Saturday, a turnout of 42.43% of registered voters. Texas turnout for *all* of 2016 (including Election Day) was 8,969,226, so the state is already … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Twelve: Second Saturday

Posted on October 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Where we are. Harris County surpassed 1 million ballots cast Friday, setting an early voting record with seven days remaining, in spite of the lingering COVID-19 pandemic and a flurry of lawsuits over the management of the election. The county … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eleven: We reach one million

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s take a brief detour to Fort bend County. Fort Bend County voters continue to smash early-voting records — with a greater share of voters turning out so far than in populous Harris and Dallas counties, according to a news … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Ten: Closing in on 2016

Posted on October 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A couple of tweets to get us started: . 1.3 million (25%) ofTX early voters so far did not vote in 2016. #txlege — Keir Murray (@houtopia) 2:40 PM – 21 October 2020 I talked about the likely percentage of … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Nine: Starting to run out of clever subtitles

Posted on October 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now, for something slightly different, Part One: This was hard for Jacob Monty. As a lifelong Republican, the 52-year old Houston attorney has been in the trenches with former President George W. Bush, never voted for a Democrat for … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eight: Any idea what pattern we’ll follow?

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron provides five takeaways from early voting so far. Democrats appear to be doing well in Harris County, but don’t call it a wave yet. Turnout to date has been strong in precincts carried by Trump and Clinton in … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Seven: It’s Day One all over again, sort of

Posted on October 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a mid-day headline that needed some revision by the evening. Harris County is on pace to reach half of of 2016’s total voter turnout by Monday evening, the county clerk reported. By 11 a.m. Monday, the seventh day of … Continue reading →

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