My next two posts in this series will focus on the 1st and 14th Courts of Appeals. These courts are a little strange electorally, as the elections cover ten counties in all, and over the past few elections they have proven to be pretty darned balanced. As we know, turnout in Harris County has gone up a lot in recent years, and the county has gone from evenly split to strongly blue, yet the balance in these ten counties persists. In this post, I’m going to do a bit of a historical review, to look at the trends and see if we can spot the underlying metrics.
2008 - 1st CoA Pl 3 (50.58%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,111,642 70.74% 585,249 52.65% Others 459,704 29.26% 209,510 45.57% 2012 - 14th CoA Pl 3 (47.74%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,137,580 69.82% 580,356 51.01% Others 491,673 30.18% 197,511 40.17% 2016 - 1st CoA Pl 4 (48.95%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,273,638 69.00% 671,908 52.76% Others 572,258 31.00% 231,702 40.49% 2018 - 1st CoA Pl 2 (50.93%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,187,403 68.63% 647,398 54.52% Others 542,765 31.37% 233,693 43.06% 2020 - 1st CoA Pl 3 (50.76%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,575,122 68.23% 856,056 54.35% Others 733,364 31.77% 314,644 42.90% 2020 - 1st CoA Pl 5 (50.10%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,573,903 68.24% 845,951 53.75% Others 732,455 31.76% 309,497 42.25% 2020 - 14th CoA Chief Justice (49.97%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,575,801 68.23% 841,923 53.43% Others 733,698 31.77% 312,231 42.56% 2020 - 14th CoA Pl 7 (49.57%) County Tot Votes Share DemVotes Dem% ============================================ Harris 1,573,716 68.25% 833,925 52.99% Others 732,057 31.75% 309,115 42.23%
A couple of points of explanation here. For 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2018, I picked the top Democratic performer among the appellate court candidates. For 2008, that meant the one Democratic winner. In 2018, as every Dem won their race, I went with the candidate with the narrowest victory, since what I’m most interested in is the threshold needed to win. For 2020, I included all four candidates.
In each table, I separated out the total votes cast in that race from Harris County, and from all the other counties. “Share” is the share of the vote that came from Harris County, so in the 2008 race 70.74% of the total vote came from Harris County. “DemVotes” is the total number of votes the Democratic candidate got, in Harris and in the other counties, and “Dem%” is the percentage of the vote that Democratic candidate got.
We see that the share of the vote from Harris County has dropped every year, from over 70% in 2008 to a bit more than 68% this year. That doesn’t appear to be predictive of anything, as Dems swept these races in 2018 and won two out of four this year, with the lowest-performing Dem having (by a tiny amount) the largest Harris County vote share. The rise of Fort Bend County as a Democratic bastion has no doubt mitigated the shrinking contribution from Harris, but that points out again the importance of counties around Harris, as the reddening of Galveston and the smaller counties has kept these races competitive. One thing I hadn’t realized till I went through this exercise was that Waller County was quite close to even in 2008, but gave Republicans a 7K vote edge in 2020. Indeed, Dem candidates in Waller in 2020 were getting about the same number of votes as Dem candidates in Waller in 2008, after two cycles of failing to meet the 2008 number, as the Republican vote steadily climbed. As we have discussed before, Jane Robinson lost her race by 0.06 percentage points, or a bit more than a thousand votes out of over 1.5 million votes cast. In a race that close, you can point to many, many ways in which a small difference would have changed the outcome.
That’s one reason why these races interest me so much. For one, the appellate courts were a place where Dems made numerous pickups in 2020, yet still fell a bit short of expectations – I at least thought we’d win all four of these, given how well we’d done in 2018. But as you can see, it wasn’t quite to be. I don’t want to downplay the races we did win – Veronica Rivas Molloy and Amparo Guerra are both terrific candidates, and they are now the only Latinas on that court – I’m just greedy enough to have wanted more.
What’s frustrating to me is that I can’t tell what I think is the magic formula here. The difference between Guerra, who won by four thousand votes and 0.20 percentage points, and Robinson is tiny enough to be rounding error. The main difference is that Guerra won Harris County by ten thousand votes more than Robinson did, while Robinson did five thousand votes better in the other counties than Guerra did (she lost them by 421K while Guerra lost them by 426K). We know that Latinx candidates generally did better in Harris County this year than their peers, but that wasn’t the case outside Harris County. And even if it was, that’s not much of a lesson to learn. It was a game of inches, and we won one and lost one.
Ultimately, I think the path here is the same as the path I’ve described in the various “key counties” posts. We’re starting to move in the right direction in Brazoria County, and if we can keep that going that could be enough to tip the scales to the blue side on a longer-term basis. Basically, if we keep doing what we’re doing we’ll likely be at least competitive in these races, and if we can step it up a bit, especially but not exclusively in Brazoria, we can do better than that. Maybe not the deepest insight you’ll ever read, but it’s what I’ve got.
(Assuming that the judicial districts don’t get redrawn, which I suppose they could. In 2004, the First and Fourteenth districts included Burleson, Trinity, and Walker Counties plus the current ten. We’d have zero chance of winning these races if those three were added back in. I have no idea what the process or criteria for defining the judicial districts is. I’m just saying that if Republicans decided to do something about this, they probably could.)
Next up, I’ll do the district breakdown for these four races in Harris County. After that, more judicial races and then on to the other county races. As always, let me know what you think.