Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Nikki Haley’s best counties

Posted on March 13, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Both Stace and I have noted the handful of counties in which President Biden underperformed in the primary election. That led me to wonder what the analogous situation was like on the Republican side. Where did Nikki Haley overperform her … Continue reading →

There’s only one way forward after this primary

Posted on March 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

The worst people you know had a very good week last week. It’s likely to get better for them after the runoffs. These headlines capture the essence of it: ‘Disastrous’: A shaken Texas House prepares for rightward shift after record … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged Angela Paxton, Angie Chen Button, Averie Bishop, Ben Bumgarner, Brad Buckley, Caroline Harris Davila, Collin County, Craig Goldman, Dallas County, Daniel Lee, David Carstens, Dawn Richardson, Democratic primary, Denise Wilkerson, Denton County, Detrick DeBurr, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Elizabeth Wilkerson, Fort Bend County, Fred Medina, Frederick Frazier, HD108, HD112, HD118, HD121, HD14, HD26, HD37, HD52, HD54, HD55, HD61, HD63, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD94, HD97, Hugh Shine, impeachment, Jacey Jetton, Janie Lopez, Jeff Leach, Jennie Birkholz, Jennifer Lee, Joe Biden, John Lujan, John Raney, Ken Paxton, Kristian Carranza, Kronda Thimesch, Laurel Jordan Swift, Makala Washington, Matt Shaheen, Michelle Beckley, Morgan Meyer, precinct analysis, primaries, Rachel Mello, redistricting, runoff, SD08, Senate, Steve Allison, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, Tony Adams, Tony Tinderholt, vouchers | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2023 Controller’s runoff

Posted on January 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayoral runoff The City Controller runoff also wasn’t particularly close, as Chris Hollins bested many (many, many, many) time candidate Orlando Sanchez by 17 points. There are some interesting things to point out here though, so let’s get to … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged Bill Frazer, Chris Brown, Chris Hollins, Election 2013, Election 2015, Election 2019, Election 2023, Harris County, Houston, Houston City Controller, John Whitmire, Orlando Sanchez, precinct analysis, Ronald Green, runoff, Sheila Jackson Lee | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2023 Mayoral runoff

Posted on January 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

You might want to hide your children’s eyes, these numbers are quite ugly if you were a Sheila Jackson Lee supporter: Dist Whitmire J Lee ======================= A 12,578 3,807 B 2,625 11,199 C 29,030 8,769 D 5,012 14,150 E 20,469 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged Annise Parker, Bill King, Election 2015, Election 2019, Election 2023, Gene Locke, Houston, John Whitmire, Mayor, precinct analysis, runoff, Sheila Jackson Lee, Sylvester Turner | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: City Props A and B

Posted on December 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 At Large #4 At Large #5 Finishing up with the two citywide ballot propositions. The first one, Prop A, established that three … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged Ed Emmett, Election 2023, Fair For Houston, Houston, Houston City Council, precinct analysis | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: At Large #5

Posted on December 19, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 At Large #4 Returning to this as promised for the November elections. I will be doing the same for the runoffs shortly, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged At Large #5, Brad Batteau, Election 2023, Houston, precinct analysis, Rigo Hernandez, Sallie Alcorn, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: At Large #4

Posted on December 6, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 After that nine-candidate pileup in AL3, At Large #4 and its four contenders is a much more sedate affair, and a lot … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged At Large #4, Election 2006, Election 2009, Election 2023, HCDE, Houston, Houston City Council, Letitia Plummer, Mayor, precinct analysis, Roy Morales, runoff | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: At Large #3

Posted on December 5, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 At Large #2 At Large #3 had the largest non-Mayoral field on the ballot, with nine candidates. Five candidates finished with at least ten percent of the vote, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged At Large #3, Casey Curry, Donnell Cooper, Election 2023, Ericka McCrutcheon, Houston, Houston City Council, James Joseph, precinct analysis, Richard Cantu, Richard Nguyen, runoff, Twila Carter | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: At Large #2

Posted on December 4, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum At Large #1 Dist Davis Hellyar Coryat Bess Holly Obes ========================================================== A 5,494 3,854 1,580 2,112 1,830 1,184 B 5,834 800 1,286 5,148 658 1,211 C 7,921 13,067 2,477 4,679 4,923 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged At Large #2, Danielle Bess, David Robinson, Election 2015, Election 2019, Election 2023, Houston, Houston City Council, Nick Hellyar, Obes Nwabara, precinct analysis, runoff, Willie Davis | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #1

Posted on December 3, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race Harris Health bond referendum We have four runoffs in the At Large races, and they’re all basically D versus R affairs. The HCDP and the Harris County GOP have taken their sides. Let’s look at … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged At Large #1, Election 2019, Election 2023, Election 2027, Eriq Glenn, Houston, Houston City Council, Julian Ramirez, Kendall Baker, Leah Wolfthal, Melanie Miles, Nick Hellyar, precinct analysis, runoff | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: 2023 Harris Health proposition

Posted on December 2, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race Controller’s race The nice thing about analyzing Harris County Proposition A is that I can use the precinct/district guide I got and used for the 2022 election, which is nice and clean and gives me totals that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged bond referendum, Election 2023, Harris County, Harris Health System, hospitals, Houston, precinct analysis | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2023 Controller’s race

Posted on November 30, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: Mayor’s race I got in a groove and took what I learned from mucking around with the Mayor’s race data and was able to clean up the same for the Controller’s race in relatively short order. As you’ll see, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged Chris Hollins, Dave Martin, Election 2023, Houston, Houston City Controller, Orlando Sanchez, precinct analysis, runoff, Shannan Nobles | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2023 Mayor’s race

Posted on November 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

The November 2023 election has been officially canvassed and certified, and that means that there’s precinct data available for me to analyze. I’ve been working on it over the weekend, and I will tell you it’s a bit more of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged Bill King, Election 2015, Election 2019, Election 2023, Gilbert Garcia, Houston, Jack Christie, John Whitmire, Lee Kaplan, Mayor, MJ Khan, precinct analysis, Robert Gallegos, runoff, Sheila Jackson Lee, Sylvester Turner | 9 Comments

Precinct analysis: State Senate and SBOE 2022

Posted on April 25, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 A comparison with 2012 Congress 2022 As with Congress there won’t be much to see here. The fewer the districts, the more precise the redistricting can be. Here’s the State Senate: Dist Abbott Abb% Beto Beto% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Angela Paxton, Eddie Lucio, Election 2022, Election 2024, Morgan LaMantia, precinct analysis, redistricting, SBOE, SD02, SD07, SD08, SD09, SD11, SD12, SD19, SD20, SD21, SD25, SD27, Senate, Texas | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Congress 2022

Posted on April 4, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 A comparison with 2012 This will be short and bland, as there ain’t many competitive Congressional districts by any metric. Dist Abbott Abb% Beto Beto% =================================== 28 79,478 46.4% 88,550 51.7% 34 57,793 42.7% 75,741 55.9% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged CD03, CD07, CD12, CD15, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD28, CD32, CD34, Congress, Democratic primary, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2018, Election 2022, Election 2024, Henry Cuellar, Jessica Cisneros, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, Tony Gonzales | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Looking back at the 2012 landscape

Posted on March 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 We’ve had our first look at the way the new State House districts performed, and while we can expect the 2024 election to be a little different, it’s clear at this time that there aren’t many … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Barack Obama, Craig Eiland, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Greg Abbott, HD102, HD105, HD107, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD117, HD118, HD125, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD144, HD148, HD149, HD23, HD32, HD34, HD41, HD43, HD45, HD47, HD48, HD50, HD52, HD54, HD65, HD74, HD78, HD96, HD97, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, The Lege | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: State House 2022

Posted on March 20, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We have data. Texas Democrats and Republicans are beginning to gear up for a presidential election cycle in which opportunities to flip seats for Congress and the Legislature appear limited. It’s a natural outcome after Republicans redrew legislative and congressional … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Allan Ritter, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Greg Abbott, HD105, HD106, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD115, HD118, HD121, HD122, HD126, HD127, HD129, HD132, HD133, HD135, HD138, HD14, HD144, HD148, HD150, HD20, HD21, HD22, HD25, HD26, HD28, HD29, HD34, HD35, HD36, HD37, HD39, HD41, HD45, HD52, HD54, HD55, HD57, HD61, HD63, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD70, HD74, HD80, HD89, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, HD99, HF76, HF78, Joe Biden, lawsuit, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, Tracy King | 2 Comments

What will it take to keep those ten appellate court benches we won in 2018?

Posted on February 21, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

As you may recall, Democrats won a ton of Appellate Court races in 2018. Ten of them, in fact, five each on the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals, the first such victories since winning a lone bench in 2008. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged 14th Court of Appeals, Austin County, Beto O'Rourke, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Colorado County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Grimes County, Harris County, Joe Biden, judicial races, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout, Waller County, Washington County | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: The different kinds of courts

Posted on January 30, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races Not as good statewide races County executive offices Houston/not Houston I’ve spent a lot of time and space on this blog talking about judicial races and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Harris County, judicial races, precinct analysis, straight ticket voting, Texas | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Inside and out of the city

Posted on January 17, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Most years we don’t get the data to differentiate between votes cast by residents of Houston and votes cast by Harris County non-Houston residents. There needs to be a citywide referendum of the ballot in order to get at this … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alexandra Mealer, Beto O'Rourke, Carla Wyatt, Chris Daniel, Dan Patrick, Dawn Buckingham, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2022, Glenn Hegar, Greg Abbott, Harris County, Houston, Janet Dudding, Jay Kleberg, Ken Paxton, Kyle Scott, Lina Hidalgo, Luke Warford, Marilyn Burgess, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Rochelle Garza, Sid Miller, Stan Stanart, Susan Hays, Teneshia Hudspeth, Texas, Wayne Christian | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: County executive offices

Posted on January 9, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races Not as good statewide races County races appear towards the bottom of the ballot, after all of the federal and state races. With the exception of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Carla Wyatt, Chris Daniel, District Clerk, Election 2018, Election 2022, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Harris County Treasurer, judicial races, Kyle Scott, Marilyn Burgess, precinct analysis, Railroad Commission, Stan Stanart, straight ticket voting, Teneshia Hudspeth, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: The not-as-good statewide races

Posted on January 2, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races The difference between these statewide races and the ones we have already looked at, including the Governor’s race, is very simple: These Republican candidates did better … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Comptroller, Dan Patrick, Dawn Buckingham, Election 2022, Glenn Hegar, Greg Abbott, Janet Dudding, Jay Kleberg, Ken Paxton, Land Commissioner, Luke Warford, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Railroad Commission, Rochelle Garza, Sid Miller, Susan Hays, Texas, Wayne Christian | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: The better statewide races

Posted on December 30, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer As noted before, Greg Abbott got 490K votes in Harris County, far less than the 559K he received in 2018 running against Lupe Valdez. Of the other six races … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Bill White, Dan Patrick, Election 2010, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Greg Abbott, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD138, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Ken Paxton, Lite Gov, Mike Collier, precinct analysis, Rochelle Garza, Sid Miller, Susan Hays, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: Hidalgo versus Mealer

Posted on December 29, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread We’ve looked at the Governor’s race, in which Beto was the top Democratic performer. Now we’ll look at the next highest profile race, in which the result was a surprise to some … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alexandra Mealer, Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, Constable, Election 2004, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Election 2026, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Lina Hidalgo, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, write-in candidate | 6 Comments

Precinct analysis: Beto versus the spread

Posted on December 19, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott So last time we saw the numbers for the 2022 Governor’s race. But what numbers need in order to be meaningful is context, and that means other numbers to compare them to. We’re going to do … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2014, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD133, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, Joe Biden, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Beto versus Abbott

Posted on December 14, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

All right, I have the full landscape data for Harris County and the November 2022 election, and I’ll be doing my usual thing with it. There’s a lot of data and a lot of ways to explore it, some of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, CD10, CD18, CD29, CD38, Commissioners Court, Constable, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD133, HD138, precinct analysis, redistricting, SD06, SD15, Texas | 2 Comments

State and county election result relationships: Tarrant County

Posted on December 12, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In years past, Tarrant County was a pretty close bellwether for election results in the state of Texas. From 2004 through 2016, the closeness of their Presidential numbers with the statewide numbers was eerie. But since 2018 the talk has … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2002, Election 2004, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Governor, Joe Biden, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Wendy Davis | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Specifically, my precincts

Posted on December 4, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I’m still waiting for the full landscape canvass data from Harris County – things are a bit up in the air right now because of the lawsuit filed by the local GOP, but I expect to get that data soon, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alexandra Mealer, Beto O'Rourke, Ed Emmett, Election 2018, Election 2022, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Lina Hidalgo, precinct analysis, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: How the 2022 Harris County State Rep candidates did versus the 2020 and 2018 results

Posted on November 28, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I still don’t have a full canvass of Harris County, so I’m looking around to see what kind of analyses I can do in the meantime. For this post, I’m comparing how the candidates in the contested State Rep contests … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alma Allen, Beto O'Rourke, Christina Morales, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD128, HD129, HD131, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, HD145, HD148, HD149, HD150, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Lupe Valdez, Mano DeAyala, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Early voting versus Election Day

Posted on November 21, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In his pre-election analyses of the early vote, Republican consultant Derek Ryan (whose numbers I have used in the past) suggested that there was still a significant number of regular Republican voters who had not voted yet, which could make … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Bastrop County, Beto O'Rourke, Bowie County, Dallas County, early voting, Election 2022, Election Day, Fort Bend County, Governor, Greg Abbott, Gregg County, Harris County, Hays County, Lubbock, precinct analysis, Texas, Travis County, Waller County, Williamson County | Comments Off

On comparing counties from 2018 to 2022

Posted on November 19, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I started with this. Voters in counties across Texas chose GOP leaders over Democrats at a higher rate than they did four years ago, a Dallas Morning News analysis shows. The findings, based on data as of noon on Wednesday, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Collin County, Dallas County, Dan Patrick, Denton County, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Governor, Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, Lupe Valdez, precinct analysis, redistricting, Rockwall County, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

State and county election result relationships, part 4: What happened in 2022

Posted on November 15, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Now that the final totals are in, let’s go back and do the same exercise in comparing overall results for statewide candidates to the results they got in Harris County, and then from there … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Alexandra Mealer, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, judicial races, Lina Hidalgo, polls, precinct analysis, Texas, turnout, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

State and county election result relationships, part 3: Other county races

Posted on October 21, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Part One Part Two Last time we looked at judicial races, which for all of the complaints about not knowing the candidates and just going by partisan labels have produced a consistent range of outcomes over the years. Some people … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beverly Kaufman, Devon Anderson, Diane Trautman, District Attorney, District Clerk, Ed Emmett, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Harris County Judge, Harris County Sheriff, Harris County Tax Assessor, Harris County Treasurer, HCDE, Kim Ogg, Lloyd Oliver, Mike Anderson, Paul Bettencourt, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, straight ticket voting, Texas, Tommy Thomas | 6 Comments

State and county election result relationships, part 2: Judicial races

Posted on October 20, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In Part One of this series, we looked at the relationship between statewide results and Harris County results for statewide candidates. In the last three elections, statewide Democratic candidates have done on average more than nine points better in Harris … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bill White, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, judicial races, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Texas | 1 Comment

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