Still working through a backlog of random observations from last night…
– Is it just me, or does anyone else have a hard time believing it’s actually all over?
– One way of looking at how Harris County is changing: In 2004, running unopposed, Harris County Commissioner Steve Radack received 200,147 votes out of 306,949 ballots cast in Precinct 4, for 65.21% of the total. In 2008, running against Democrat Dexter Handy, he received 191,785 votes out of 339,115, or 56.55%; straight up against Handy, he got 60.07%. If current trends in Harris County continue, and especially if Radack steps down after this term, that will be a winnable seat for a strong Democratic candidate.
– Similarly, Justice of the Peace Russ Ridgway in Precinct 5, Place 1 got 174,202 votes against a Libertarian candidate in 2004, with 285,955 ballots cast, for 60.92% of the total. Yesterday, Ridgway got 162,916 votes out of 310,750, or 52.43%; his Democratic opponent, Peter Rene, won 123,452 votes for a 43.17% tally against Ridgway’s 56.83%. This isn’t your daddy’s west Harris County any more.
– Chris Bell heads into the runoff with a 27,000 vote lead over Joan Huffman. He and Stephanie Simmons combined for 52.16% of the vote in SD17. Runoffs always come down to turnout, and finishing first early is no guarantee of finishing first later. But I think he’s in a decent position. Look for a lot of money to keep pouring into this one.
– I’m wondering who will be the first sitting Republican judge to announce a switch to the Democrats, and when it will happen. Anyone want to speculate?
– What do you suppose Orlando Sanchez’s platform will be when he runs for re-election as Harris County Treasurer? I’m thinking “You can’t get caught in a scandal if you don’t actually ever do anything” would work.
– As Grits notes, the Democrats made gains in district and appellate court races in counties besides Harris, such as Bexar, where two sitting Republican judges were ousted, and El Paso. I will once again echo the call to field a strong and full slate of candidates for the Supreme Court (as we did this year) and the Court of Criminal Appeals in 2010. The breakthrough is coming.
– To emphasize a point I made before, here’s how the result in CD24 up in the Metroplex compares to 2004:
2004 County Marchant Page M Pct P Pct ========================================= Dallas 64,973 43,416 59.94 40.06 Denton 25,544 12,610 66.95 33.05 Tarrant 63,918 26,573 70.63 29.37 Total 154,435 82,599 65.15 34.85 2008 County Marchant Love M Pct L Pct ========================================= Dallas 60,774 57,717 51.29 48.71 Denton 25,968 17,995 59.07 40.93 Tarrant 64,998 35,937 64.40 35.60 Total 151,740 111,649 57.61 42.39
So Kenny Marchant lost 3000 votes while one unheralded Democrat gained 30,000 over the previous unheralded Democrat. Democratic gains were across all three counties in the district. Maybe it’s time to mount a more serious challenge here. Yes, I know, redistricting is coming, and the CD24 of today may not bear any resemblance to the CD24 of 2012. I don’t think that’s a good enough reason not to try, however.
– So, um, when would it be okay to start thinking about the 2009 Houston elections? Maybe after the SD17 runoff.
Coming soon – more numbers!
Thoughts about the local election. Why was the percentage of the vote for Obama significantly less in Harris County than in Bexar and Dallas Counties. The Dems could have swept every office easily if the party was in any way organized to get the vote out. This time the harris county dems snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Hopefully the party will start soon to plan and prepare for the 2010 election. Chris Bell should drop the geeky black and white tv ads for the run off and run a positive campaign which does not mention his opponent. With the exception of campaign signs, Bradford’s campaign was almost non existent. Lykos’ radio commercials hammered Bradford. And the first republican who may flip to the dems is judge Kerrigan. Kerrigan squeaked out a victory yesterday against a candidate who did not campaign. Kerrigan’s bench is on the ballot again in two years and she more than any other remaining republican judge knows first hand that the days of republican judges in Harris County may be numbered.
So Kenny Marchant lost 3000 votes while one unheralded Democrat gained 30,000 over the previous unheralded Democrat. Democratic gains were across all three counties in the district. Maybe it’s time to mount a more serious challenge here.
For that matter, check out SD-9. Melvin Willms really was far less visible than Tom Love, and he was only 10 points off. If only Katy Huebner had mounted a real challenge in SD-9 like some folks encouraged her to do, then we might have had something really interesting here.
Yes, I know, redistricting is coming, and the CD24 of today may not bear any resemblance to the CD24 of 2012.
The the consensus, according to a poly sci professor at UTA, is that 2012 will include a Democratic CD based in Grand Prairie for Royce West. I suspect that would include Oak Cliff, which used to anchor Martin Frost, and East Arlington, which just gave Paula Pierson a blow out.
Texas was not a battleground state but it did have a competitive primary where many new Democrats were identified. It’s time the party begins to organize similar to the campaign that Obama ran. Dems are undervoting at least 8%-12% based upon demographics.
Only a concerted and effective registration effort will produce results that reflect a Texas landscape beneficial to the party.