Tag Archives: Election 2014

Early voting for November 2018 starts today

Posted on October 22, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: “Study the long November 6, 2018 Election ballot to ensure you make the right choices when voting,”  said Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart, encouraging voters to visit www.HarrisVotes.com  and select “Find your Poll and Ballot” to review their personal sample … Continue reading →

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What are your turnout scenarios?

Posted on October 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I keep thinking about this: County Clerk Stan Stanart predicts up to a million Harris County residents could be casting ballots in a string of hotly-contested races. As you’ve heard me say many times, the Democrats’ main issue in off … Continue reading →

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Chron profiles both County Judge candidates

Posted on October 16, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good story on Lina Hidalgo. First-time candidate Lina Hidalgo hopes Harris County voters frustrated with what she says is poor leadership on flood control and criminal justice reform will help her defeat longtime County Judge Ed Emmett. Hidalgo, 27, is … Continue reading →

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Final voter registration numbers

Posted on October 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Busy last week. Harris County added more than 11,000 voters to its rolls in the final week before the registration deadline, the last wave in a surge of half a million new Texas voters since the March primaries. Democrats are … Continue reading →

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Change Research (Land Commissioner): Bush 41, Suazo 36

Posted on October 13, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Miguel Suazo, the Democratic nominee for Texas Land Commissioner, is within 5 points of incumbent George P. Bush. The poll was conducted shortly after Suazo was endorsed by former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, a Republican. The poll … Continue reading →

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What about Neal?

Posted on September 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey reminds us there is a third person in the Texas Senate race. Libertarians and other third-party candidates have never won state elections in Texas and rarely make a meaningful difference in election results, with one big exception: As … Continue reading →

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Lots more voters registered statewide

Posted on September 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Always good to hear. The Texas voter rolls have grown to 15.6 million people, a new record, Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos confirmed. That is nearly a 400,000-person increase since March and a jump of 1.6 million since the … Continue reading →

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Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

Posted on September 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their … Continue reading →

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CD07 “live poll”: Culberson 48, Fletcher 45

Posted on September 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s another of those NYT-Siena “live polls” of interesting Congressional races. Houston Rep. John Culberson holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher, a poll conducted by The New York Times Upshot found Tuesday. Culberson’s 3-point lead is within … Continue reading →

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CD23 “live poll”: Hurd 51, Ortiz Jones 43

Posted on September 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Give this one a bit of side-eye. Incumbent Republican Will Hurd is leading his Democratic challenger, Gina Ortiz Jones, in one of the country’s most competitive races in this year’s midterm elections, according to a new poll by The New … Continue reading →

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Harris County 2018 voter registration numbers

Posted on September 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Thank you Harris County Voter Registration Division and Harris County Volunteer Deputy Voter Registrars for your passion, dedication, and commitment in registering eligible voters! Current number registered: 2,291,037 Voters registered in 2017: 67,753 Voters registered in 2018: … Continue reading →

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The 2006 question

Posted on September 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It always comes back to turnout. It was the worst day of the worst month of the worst season in years for Republicans hoping to mitigate political damage in this fall’s midterm elections. And Texas political operatives were left stunned … Continue reading →

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Signs, signs, everywhere there’s Beto signs

Posted on August 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

And they’re breaking the minds of Ted Cruz supporters. The conversation unfolding before a campaign event for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz here last week echoed similar ones popping up among Republican groups around Texas. With a mixture of frustration and … Continue reading →

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CD06 poll: Wright 48, Sanchez 39

Posted on August 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Via Patrick Svitek on Twitter, I learned of a recent PPP poll in CD06. Here’s the polling memo, and here’s the information you’re most interested in: Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance? 48% Approve … Continue reading →

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The range of Republican anxiety

Posted on August 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Some folks are a little scared about all this “blue wave” talk and poll numbers and what have you. As Ted Cruz took questions at a Republican women’s event [in Smithville] Saturday evening, Bastrop retiree Ronnie Ann Burt wanted to … Continue reading →

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Lyceum: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 39

Posted on August 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good result, though the others with it could be better. A new poll released Wednesday suggests that U.S. Sen Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, are in a dead heat. The poll from Texas Lyceum shows Cruz … Continue reading →

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Gallego versus Flores in the SD19 runoff

Posted on August 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Get set for a noisy runoff. Republican Pete Flores and Democrat Pete Gallego are headed to a runoff in the special election to replace convicted former state Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio. With all precincts reporting Tuesday night, Flores led … Continue reading →

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Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

Posted on July 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading →

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Two views of Democratic fundraising

Posted on July 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Positive: For the first time in a generation, there is a Democrat running for Congress in every single district in the state. Most of those candidates vying to unseat Republicans will likely lose. Many are running in districts where President … Continue reading →

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On enthusiasm and fundraising

Posted on July 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

RG Ratcliffe engages the “can Lupe Valdez be competitive” question. Valdez will almost certainly lose to Greg Abbott in November. Yet if she inspires Hispanic voters to turn out, she could help Democratic candidates in tight down-ballot races and make … Continue reading →

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Cloud wins in CD27

Posted on July 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

No runoff needed. Republican Michael Cloud appears likely to win the special election to fill former U.S. Rep. Blake Farenthold’s seat, which would spare the GOP a runoff in the 27th District. With 89 percent of precincts reporting, Cloud was … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 36, part 2

Posted on June 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We pick up where we left off. Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 41 percent to 36 percent in the general election race for a Texas seat in the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune … Continue reading →

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Abbott sets July 31 special election date in SD19

Posted on June 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

One way or another, we’ll have that slot filled in time for the start of the next session. Gov. Greg Abbott has scheduled a July 31 special election to replace state Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio. Uresti announced his resignation … Continue reading →

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SD10 poll: Powell 46, Burton 42

Posted on June 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the Trib’s email newsletter: State Sen. Konni Burton’s Democratic challenger, Beverly Powell, has a 4-point lead over the Colleyville Republican, according to a new poll from Powell’s campaign. The survey of 600 likely voters found Powell, a former Burleson … Continue reading →

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Looking back at 2010 and 2014

Posted on June 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve talked a lot about polls in the past week, so I thought I’d take a minute and look back at the polling data that we had as of this time in the 2010 and 2014 elections, to see if … Continue reading →

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Checking in on the Congressional forecast

Posted on June 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Now that our November lineups are finalized, I thought I’d check in once again on the 2018 Congressional race forecast, from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab. I last wrote about this in December, at a time when the generic … Continue reading →

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DCCC poll: Culberson 47, Fletcher 45

Posted on June 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Game on. The U.S. House race between GOP incumbent John Culberson and Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher is generally expected to be closer than most in this traditionally Republican enclave of west Houston and the Harris County suburbs. Now an … Continue reading →

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No Greens

Posted on June 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Can’t honestly say I’m sorry. When Texans head to the ballot box this November, they’ll be able to vote for Republicans, Democrats or Libertarians. If they want to choose a candidate affiliated with another political group, they might have to … Continue reading →

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Lupe and Beto

Posted on May 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke has a year-old, well-funded campaign for US Senate. Lupe Valdez doesn’t have anything like those advantages in her campaign for Governor. Will her lower profile effort have a negative effect on his higher profile one? The race for … Continue reading →

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Post-runoff thoughts

Posted on May 24, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I suppose one’s view on Democratic primary runoff turnout is a matter of perspective. I wrote that it was way more than the turnout of any primary going back to 2006 – indeed, more than double the turnout of any … Continue reading →

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2018 Runoff EV report: Primary runoff turnout totals don’t much matter

Posted on May 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Hey, have you been wondering how early voting has gone in the primary runoffs so far? Well, wonder no more, for here is the daily report through Wednesday. You have today and tomorrow to vote early, and then you’ll need … Continue reading →

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The crossover question

Posted on May 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From G. Elliott Morris, reviewing the recent AZ-08 special Congressional election: The second thing to learn from AZ-08 helps explain the first: if Democrats aren’t winning because of differential turnout (or, not solely because of differential turnout), why are they? … Continue reading →

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The timing of a Harvey bond referendum

Posted on April 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

How does August grab you? Harris County Commissioners Court on Tuesday will consider calling a special election for August 25 — the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Harvey — to ask voters to OK a massive bond referendum for flood control … Continue reading →

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Some people sound very threatened by that Quinnipiac Texas Senate poll

Posted on April 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is almost funny. In its first-ever Texas poll, Quinnipiac University deemed the Senate race “too close to call” in reporting that 47 percent of Texas voters surveyed back Cruz and 44 percent support O’Rourke, an El Paso congressman. The … Continue reading →

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