Introduction
Congressional districts
State Rep districts
Commissioners Court/JP precincts
Comparing 2012 and 2016
Statewide judicial
Other jurisdictions
Appellate courts, Part 1
Appellate courts, Part 2
Judicial averages
Other cities
District Attorney
County Attorney
Sheriff
Tax Assessor
County Clerk
HCDE
Fort Bend, part 1
Fort Bend, part 2
Fort Bend, part 3
Brazoria County
Harris County State Senate comparisons
State Senate districts 2020
State Senate district comparisons
State House districts 2020, part 1
State House districts 2020, part 2
Median districts
State House district changes by demography
State House district changes by county
SBOE
Congress, part 1
I didn’t want to leave the Congressional district analysis without looking at some downballot races, since I mentioned them in the first part. To keep this simple, I’m just going to compare 2020 to 2012, to give a bookends look at things. I’ve got the Senate race (there was no Senate race in 2016, another reason to skip that year), the Railroad Commissioner race, and the Supreme Court race with Nathan Hecht.
Dist Hegar Cornyn Hegar% Cornyn%
=====================================
01 79,626 217,942 26.30% 71.90%
02 157,925 180,504 45.50% 52.00%
03 188,092 224,921 44.50% 53.20%
04 79,672 256,262 23.20% 74.70%
05 101,483 173,929 36.00% 61.70%
06 155,022 178,305 45.30% 52.10%
07 154,670 152,741 49.20% 48.60%
08 100,868 275,150 26.20% 71.50%
09 168,796 54,801 73.50% 23.90%
10 191,097 215,665 45.90% 51.80%
11 54,619 232,946 18.60% 79.20%
12 129,679 228,676 35.20% 62.00%
13 50,271 217,949 18.30% 79.40%
14 117,954 185,119 38.00% 59.60%
15 110,141 111,211 48.10% 48.60%
16 148,484 73,923 63.10% 31.40%
17 127,560 174,677 41.00% 56.20%
18 178,680 60,111 72.60% 24.40%
19 65,163 194,783 24.40% 73.00%
20 163,219 99,791 60.10% 36.80%
21 203,090 242,567 44.50% 53.10%
22 188,906 214,386 45.80% 52.00%
23 135,518 150,254 46.10% 51.10%
24 165,218 171,828 47.80% 49.70%
25 165,657 222,422 41.70% 56.00%
26 168,527 256,618 38.60% 58.70%
27 98,760 169,539 35.90% 61.70%
28 118,063 107,547 50.60% 46.10%
29 99,415 51,044 64.00% 32.80%
30 203,821 53,551 77.00% 20.20%
31 178,949 206,577 45.20% 52.20%
32 170,654 165,157 49.60% 48.00%
33 111,620 41,936 70.40% 26.50%
34 101,691 93,313 50.60% 46.50%
35 175,861 87,121 64.50% 32.00%
36 78,544 218,377 25.90% 71.90%
Dist Casta Wright Casta% Wright%
=====================================
01 75,893 217,287 25.20% 72.20%
02 153,630 176,484 44.90% 51.60%
03 181,303 220,004 43.70% 53.00%
04 76,281 254,688 22.50% 75.00%
05 100,275 171,307 35.80% 61.20%
06 151,372 176,517 44.60% 52.00%
07 149,853 149,114 48.50% 48.20%
08 97,062 271,212 25.60% 71.40%
09 168,747 51,862 74.10% 22.80%
10 184,189 211,020 44.90% 51.40%
11 53,303 230,719 18.30% 79.10%
12 123,767 227,786 33.90% 62.50%
13 47,748 215,948 17.60% 79.50%
14 114,873 182,101 37.40% 59.40%
15 113,540 103,715 50.50% 46.10%
16 144,436 75,345 62.30% 32.50%
17 121,338 171,677 39.70% 56.20%
18 177,020 57,783 72.60% 23.70%
19 62,123 192,844 23.60% 73.20%
20 165,617 93,296 61.40% 34.60%
21 197,266 234,785 43.90% 52.30%
22 184,521 209,495 45.50% 51.60%
23 136,789 144,156 47.10% 49.60%
24 160,511 167,885 47.10% 49.20%
25 157,323 218,711 40.30% 56.00%
26 160,007 251,763 37.30% 58.70%
27 97,797 165,135 36.00% 60.80%
28 121,898 100,306 52.90% 43.60%
29 102,354 46,954 66.30% 30.40%
30 204,615 50,268 77.60% 19.10%
31 169,256 203,981 43.40% 52.30%
32 168,807 160,201 49.60% 47.10%
33 111,727 40,264 71.10% 25.60%
34 105,427 86,391 53.30% 43.70%
35 173,994 82,414 64.70% 30.60%
36 76,511 216,585 25.40% 72.00%
Dist Meachum HechtMeachum% Hecht%
=====================================
01 79,995 215,240 26.60% 71.50%
02 154,787 179,887 45.20% 52.50%
03 185,076 220,662 44.60% 53.10%
04 79,667 253,119 23.50% 74.50%
05 101,813 172,186 36.40% 61.50%
06 155,372 175,793 45.80% 51.80%
07 149,348 154,058 48.20% 49.70%
08 99,434 272,277 26.20% 71.60%
09 170,611 52,213 75.00% 22.90%
10 188,253 212,284 45.80% 51.60%
11 56,146 228,708 19.30% 78.50%
12 129,478 225,206 35.50% 61.80%
13 51,303 214,434 18.90% 78.90%
14 118,324 181,521 38.50% 59.10%
15 115,046 103,787 51.20% 46.20%
16 149,828 73,267 64.20% 31.40%
17 126,952 170,378 41.50% 55.70%
18 179,178 58,684 73.50% 24.10%
19 66,333 190,784 25.20% 72.30%
20 166,733 93,546 62.00% 34.80%
21 200,216 237,189 44.50% 52.80%
22 188,187 210,138 46.30% 51.70%
23 138,391 143,522 47.70% 49.50%
24 164,386 168,747 48.10% 49.40%
25 162,591 218,370 41.60% 55.80%
26 168,621 251,426 39.10% 58.30%
27 100,675 164,273 37.10% 60.50%
28 122,263 99,666 53.50% 43.60%
29 101,662 48,349 66.00% 31.40%
30 207,327 50,760 78.50% 19.20%
31 172,531 198,717 45.00% 51.80%
32 169,325 163,993 49.60% 48.10%
33 112,876 40,077 71.80% 25.50%
34 104,142 84,361 53.80% 43.50%
35 177,097 82,098 66.00% 30.60%
36 78,170 216,153 26.00% 71.90%
Dist Sadler Cruz Sadler% Cruz%
=====================================
01 76,441 169,490 30.55% 67.74%
02 84,949 155,605 34.35% 62.92%
03 88,929 168,511 33.52% 63.52%
04 69,154 174,833 27.60% 69.79%
05 73,712 130,916 35.14% 62.41%
06 100,573 143,297 40.12% 57.16%
07 89,471 141,393 37.73% 59.63%
08 55,146 190,627 21.88% 75.64%
09 140,231 40,235 76.35% 21.91%
10 103,526 154,293 38.76% 57.76%
11 45,258 175,607 19.93% 77.32%
12 77,255 162,670 31.22% 65.74%
13 43,022 175,896 19.12% 78.17%
14 97,493 142,172 39.77% 58.00%
15 79,486 62,277 54.55% 42.74%
16 91,289 56,636 59.66% 37.02%
17 82,118 130,507 37.31% 59.30%
18 145,099 45,871 74.37% 23.51%
19 52,070 155,195 24.37% 72.65%
20 106,970 73,209 57.47% 39.33%
21 115,768 181,094 37.32% 58.38%
22 90,475 157,006 35.74% 62.02%
23 86,229 98,379 45.28% 51.66%
24 90,672 147,419 36.88% 59.97%
25 101,059 155,304 37.79% 58.07%
26 77,304 173,933 29.66% 66.74%
27 81,169 125,913 38.11% 59.12%
28 90,481 68,096 55.14% 41.50%
29 71,504 38,959 63.27% 34.47%
30 168,805 44,782 77.58% 20.58%
31 89,486 138,886 37.46% 58.13%
32 103,610 141,469 41.03% 56.03%
33 81,568 33,956 68.96% 28.71%
34 79,622 60,126 55.23% 41.71%
35 101,470 56,450 61.37% 34.14%
36 63,070 168,072 26.66% 71.04%
Dist Henry Cradd Henry% Cradd%
=====================================
01 67,992 170,189 27.73% 69.41%
02 78,359 155,155 32.30% 63.95%
03 80,078 167,247 31.02% 64.80%
04 64,908 170,969 26.53% 69.87%
05 69,401 129,245 33.75% 62.86%
06 96,386 141,220 39.03% 57.18%
07 80,266 143,409 34.60% 61.81%
08 51,716 188,005 20.83% 75.74%
09 138,893 39,120 76.19% 21.46%
10 94,282 153,321 36.00% 58.54%
11 44,310 171,250 19.77% 76.42%
12 72,582 160,255 29.85% 65.90%
13 42,402 171,310 19.15% 77.36%
14 96,221 137,169 39.91% 56.89%
15 81,120 56,697 56.51% 39.50%
16 90,256 49,563 60.67% 33.31%
17 77,899 126,329 36.20% 58.70%
18 142,749 44,416 73.97% 23.01%
19 50,735 150,643 24.17% 71.76%
20 102,998 72,019 56.19% 39.29%
21 103,442 181,345 34.03% 59.66%
22 85,869 155,271 34.42% 62.24%
23 85,204 92,976 45.63% 49.79%
24 83,119 146,534 34.52% 60.85%
25 92,074 153,051 35.16% 58.44%
26 71,177 172,026 27.82% 67.24%
27 79,313 120,235 38.16% 57.84%
28 94,545 59,311 58.53% 36.72%
29 72,681 35,059 65.14% 31.42%
30 166,852 43,206 77.43% 20.05%
31 82,045 136,810 35.10% 58.52%
32 92,896 143,313 37.69% 58.15%
33 81,885 30,941 69.96% 26.43%
34 82,924 50,769 58.78% 35.99%
35 97,431 55,398 59.79% 34.00%
36 62,309 161,751 26.88% 69.79%
Dist Petty Hecht Petty% Hecht%
=====================================
01 71,467 163,306 29.37% 67.11%
02 84,472 147,576 35.05% 61.23%
03 85,368 161,072 33.16% 62.56%
04 68,551 163,313 28.26% 67.31%
05 72,559 123,012 35.59% 60.34%
06 101,437 133,905 41.29% 54.51%
07 86,596 135,562 37.63% 58.90%
08 55,495 181,582 22.47% 73.53%
09 141,509 36,555 77.91% 20.13%
10 100,998 146,370 38.76% 56.17%
11 47,657 163,669 21.49% 73.81%
12 76,959 153,820 31.79% 63.53%
13 46,099 162,448 21.01% 74.02%
14 100,566 131,348 41.86% 54.67%
15 83,009 53,962 58.27% 37.88%
16 93,997 46,517 63.26% 31.31%
17 82,692 120,206 38.64% 56.16%
18 145,329 41,564 75.56% 21.61%
19 54,458 143,426 26.12% 68.80%
20 109,712 66,441 59.93% 36.29%
21 112,633 172,657 37.12% 56.90%
22 91,252 149,320 36.71% 60.06%
23 90,554 87,003 48.74% 46.83%
24 89,019 139,910 37.09% 58.29%
25 98,663 145,549 37.88% 55.87%
26 76,953 165,377 30.12% 64.73%
27 83,222 114,299 40.30% 55.36%
28 97,850 55,633 60.91% 34.63%
29 74,382 33,124 66.97% 29.82%
30 169,799 39,877 78.96% 18.54%
31 89,084 128,420 38.24% 55.13%
32 97,997 137,060 39.92% 55.84%
33 84,095 28,859 72.01% 24.71%
34 85,950 47,645 61.27% 33.96%
35 102,646 51,225 63.03% 31.46%
36 66,497 154,956 28.85% 67.24%
There are two things that jump out at me when I look over these numbers. The first actually has to do with the statewide totals. Joe Biden cut the deficit at the Presidential level nearly in half from 2012 – where Barack Obama trailed Mitt Romney by 1.26 million votes, Biden trailed Trump by 631K. The gains were not as dramatic in the Senate and RRC races, but there was progress. Ted Cruz beat Paul Sadler by 1.246 million votes, while John Cornyn beat MJ Hegar by 1.074 million; for RRC, Christi Craddock topped Dale Henry by 1.279 million and Jim Wright bested Chrysta Castaneda by 1.039 million. Not nearly as much progress, but we’re going in the right direction. At the judicial level, however, that progress wasn’t there. Nathan Hecht, then running for Supreme Court Place 6, won in 2012 by 908K votes, and he won in 2020 by 934K. That’s a little misleading, because in the only other contested statewide judicial race in 2012, Sharon Keller beat Keith Hampton for CCA by 1.094 million votes, and five out of the seven Dems running in 2020 did better than that. Still, the point remains, the judicial races were our weakest spot. If we really want to turn Texas blue, we will need more of an investment in these races as well.
One explanation for this is that Dem statewide judicial candidates didn’t do as well in at least some of the trending-blue places. Hegar and Castaneda both carried CD07, but only two of the Dem judicial candidates did, Staci Williams and Tina Clinton. All of them carried CD32, but none of them by more than two points, while Biden took it by ten; to be fair, Hegar won it by less than two, and Castaneda had the best performance with a 2.6 point margin. Maybe these folks were motivated by Trump more than anything else, and they didn’t see the judicial races in those terms. I have noted before that Dem judicial candidates did better in CD07 in 2018 than in 2020, so maybe the higher turnout included more less-likely Republicans than one might have expected. Or maybe these folks are in the process of becoming Democratic, but aren’t all the way there yet. Just something to think about.
On the flip side of that, while Hegar underperformed in the three closer-than-expected Latino Democratic districts CD15, CD28, and CD34 – Cornyn actually carried CD15 by a smidge – everyone else did better, and indeed outperformed Biden in those districts. The judicial candidates all carried CDs 28 and 34 by at least six points, with most in the 8-9 range and a couple topping ten, and all but two carried CD15 by a wider margin that Biden’s 1.9 points, with them in the three-to-five range. Still a disconcerting step back from 2012 and 2016, but at least for CDs 28 and 34 it’s still a reasonably comfortable margin. Maye this is the mirror image of the results in CDs 07 and 32, where the Presidential race was the main motivator and people were more likely to fall back on old patterns elsewhere. As with CDs 07 and 32, we’ll have to see where those trends go from here.
After however many entries in this series, I don’t have a whole lot more to say. We’ll be getting new maps soon, and we’ll have a better idea of what the immediate future looks like. I think the last two decades has shown us that there’s only so far out in the future that redistricting will be predictive in such a dynamic and growing state as Texas, but we have seen the winds shift more than once, so let’s not get too comfortable with any one idea. Whatever we get in this session is not etched in stone, and we still have some hope for federal legislation. For now, this is what we’re up against.
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