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HD68

Early voting for HD68 special election starts today

Assume this will go to a runoff.

Sen. Drew Springer

Four Republicans and one Democrat have filed for the special election to replace state Sen.-elect Drew Springer, R-Muenster, in the Texas House.

The filing deadline for the Jan. 23 election was 5 p.m. [last] Monday.

The four GOP candidates for the seat in rural northwest Texas, which is safely Republican, are:

  • John Berry, a Jacksboro financial planner
  • Jason Brinkley, Cooke County judge
  • Craig Carter, a former candidate for overlapping Texas Senate District 30
  • David Spiller, a Jacksboro attorney and Jacksboro school board trustee

The sole Democratic candidate is Charles D. Gregory, a retired postal worker from Childress, according to the secretary of state’s office.

See here for the background. I don’t know anything about any of these candidates, so at this time I have no clue who is worth rooting for, or against. There will be two Republicans in the runoff – the district is way too Republican for any other possibility – so it’s a question of which if any are normal Republicans, and which are the “smear themselves in paint, put on fur and a Viking helmet, and storm the Capitol in an attempt to overthrow the government” type of Republican. If you have any comments on these candidates, please let us know.

HD68 special election set

Welcome to your first election of 2021.

Sen. Drew Springer

Gov. Greg Abbott has selected Jan. 23 as the date of the special election to fill the seat of state Rep. Drew Springer, R-Muenster, who recently won a promotion to the Texas Senate.

The candidate filing deadline is a week away — Jan. 4 — and early voting begins a week after that.

Springer is headed to the upper chamber after winning the Dec. 19 special election runoff to replace Sen. Pat Fallon, R-Prosper, who is on his way to Congress next month.

Springer’s House District 68 is safely Republican. It covers a rural swath wrapping from north of the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs up into the Panhandle.

At least two Republicans have already announced campaigns for the House seat. They are Jason Brinkley, who is resigning as Cooke County judge to run for the seat, and David Spiller, a Jacksboro attorney and Jacksboro ISD trustee.

The Jan. 23 date means that Springer’s successor could be sworn in early in the 140-day legislative session, which begins Jan. 12. State law gives Abbott the power to order a sped-up special election when a vacancy occurs within 60 days of the session.

See here for the background. “Safe Republican” is almost an understatement – as noted, Ted Cruz got over 83% of the vote in 2018 in HD68. When Springer’s successor could be sworn in is more a function of whether or not there’s a runoff – that’s the difference between a January swearing-in, and one in March. This is the only special legislative election on the docket at this time. That can vary a lot from cycle to cycle – there were multiple special elections and runoffs in 2015 and 2019, none in 2011 and 2017, and one in 2013. The House will move forward with 149 members until this is resolved in HD68.

Springer defeats Luther in SD30

Congratulations.

Rep. Drew Springer

State Rep. Drew Springer of Muenster prevailed over fellow Republican Shelley Luther in a special election runoff for a state Senate seat that was animated by Gov. Greg Abbott and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Luther is the Dallas salon owner who was jailed earlier this year over her refusal to close her business due to coronavirus restrictions. Throughout the race, she was an outspoken critic of Abbott, who endorsed Springer in the runoff and spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own campaign funds to beat back Luther in the race to succeed outgoing state Sen. Pat Fallon, R-Prosper.

[…]

Springer declared victory on social media, posting statements on Twitter and Facebook that said he would “continue advancing the conservative priorities of our district like reducing property taxes, securing the border, and standing up for our law enforcement and first responders who keep our communities safe.”

“I will fight to ensure Texas remains the premier place in the nation to do business, so we can unleash the private sector to create jobs and move us out of this recession,” he wrote.

Luther ran as a political outsider, attacking Springer as a tool of the “Austin swamp” who would go along to get along in the upper chamber. Springer campaigned as a proven conservative, arguing Luther could not be trusted.

When it came to the pandemic, Luther leaned heavily on her experience being sent to jail, labeling Abbott a “tyrant” over the business shutdowns he initiated and calling for a 2022 primary challenge to the governor. While not as bombastic, Springer also expressed disagreement with some of the governor’s coronavirus handling, even after earning Abbott’s endorsement.

See here for the background. Like I said, there were no good choices in this race, but but at least we’ve been spared the hot takes and national attention that a Luther win would have meant. Maybe now Shelley Luther will go back to being an obscure small business owner that none of us had to pay attention to or care about. We can hope for that much.

Springer’s win will also trigger another special election, to fill his seat in HD68. I presume Abbott will call that pretty quickly after Springer gets sworn in, since the session is about to begin. I’d expect it in late January, and any subsequent runoff would be in early March or so. Like SD30, this is a deep red district 83.3% for Ted Cruz in 2018), so the partisan balance is not in doubt. The only question is whether Springer’s replacement will be more like him, or more like Shelley Luther.

Are there West Texas pickup opportunities available?

Depends on how you look at it, I suppose.

Former Potter County Democratic Party chairman Abel Bosquez said he plans to run for the same Texas House seat he did not win in last year’s election.

“I am ready to go again,” said Bosquez, who was soundly defeated by Amarillo Republican Four Price in the District 87 race. “We can’t sit out this or any other election.”

Bosquez said he intends to make a formal announcement on or around Labor Day.

[…]

Although first-time Republican candidates Price and John Frullo of Lubbock, as well as second-time candidate Jim Landtroop of Plainview, cruised in last year’s election, West Texas Democrats said they’ll fare much better next year and could even win a House seat.

“We’re energized,” said Lubbock County Democratic Party Chairwoman Pam Brink.

Brink’s main task is to recruit candidates for House districts 83 and 84, both anchored in Lubbock. District 83 is represented by Charles Perry and District 84 by Frullo. Perry is a freshman and did not have a Democratic opponent in November.

[…]

Heflin had narrowly defeated Landtroop in the 2006 election when both were vying for what was an open seat in District 85.

If the Texas House redistricting map the Legislature approved this session survives numerous court challenges, Landtroop would find himself campaigning in large sections of the Panhandle.

His new district would stretch all the way to Lipscomb County.

Heflin said he has yet to decide if he’ll run again. If he does, he would likely run against Rep. Rick Hardcastle, R-Vernon. Hardcastle’s redrawn district would include 14 counties in the Panhandle and South Plains regions, including Crosby where Heflin lives.

Although no Democrat has expressed interest in running against Amarillo Republican John Smithee in District 86, Bosquez said he would not be surprised.

Note that if you look for HD85 in the viewer (Plan H283), HD85 is the new district anchored in Fort Bend County. Landtroop would be running in HD88, which is being vacated by Warren Chisum. I admire Bosquez and Brink’s attitudes, but the numbers aren’t pretty. Here’s the Google spreadsheet for Plan H283, and here’s a summary of the 2008 election returns in districts that I’d call “West Texas” districts:

Dist Inbumbent Obama Houston =============================== 68 Hardcastle 22.13 31.36 69 Lyne 28.07 34.27 71 King, S 26.98 32.88 72 Darby 26.68 33.35 81 Lewis 24.61 28.88 82 Craddick 21.49 23.47 83 Perry 24.62 28.57 84 Frullo 35.99 36.34 86 Smithee 18.66 21.58 87 Price 24.70 28.48 88 Landtroop* 21.30 27.35

Like I said, not very pretty. If you squint you could maybe see HD84 go our way over time, but that’s about it. You’re not going to win any of these seats via turnout and demographics, that’s for sure. You’re only hope is to convince the voters in these districts that they’ve gotten screwed by their legislators. The good news, if you want to look at it that way, is that that’s precisely what happened this past session, so if there’s ever a time to try a persuasion campaign, this is it. It’s possible your audience will be more receptive in 2014, after we’ve had yet another deficit-dominated session, but there’s no reason not to start laying down that message now. The mantra out here should be simply “Your legislator voted for things that will harm/have harmed this district. I will vote to help this district.” Will it work? Probably some, maybe a little more than some, but those are some steep hills to climb. You can’t win if you don’t play, though, and if there was ever a time that a message of change might resonate, this has to be it. I wish Bosquez and Brink and all of their colleagues the very best of luck in their quest.