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Marco Rubio

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout?


Dist     Cruz   Trump   Rubio    Cruz%  Trump%  Rubio%
======================================================
126     9,206   5,012   3,604   46.45%  25.29%  18.18%
127    13,475   6,585   4,579   49.53%  24.20%  16.83%
128    10,789   5,618   2,166   54.41%  28.33%  10.92%
129    10,906   5,812   4,288   46.71%  24.89%  18.37%
130    16,313   7,227   4,674   53.40%  23.66%  15.30%
131     1,409     813     573   44.62%  25.74%  18.14%
132     8,936   4,403   2,931   50.17%  24.72%  16.46%
133    11,465   7,630   8,696   35.58%  23.68%  26.99%
134     8,702   6,534   9,195   29.84%  22.40%  31.53%
135     8,276   4,020   2,814   50.38%  24.47%  17.13%
137     1,679   1,394     945   37.01%  30.73%  20.83%
138     7,380   3,794   2,862   47.84%  24.59%  18.55%
139     2,981   1,464   1,096   48.28%  23.71%  17.75%
140     1,372     727     415   51.19%  27.13%  15.49%
141     1,061     610     263   50.40%  28.98%  12.49%
142     2,287   1,107     827   49.86%  24.13%  18.03%
143     1,974     966     608   51.76%  25.33%  15.94%
144     2,471   1,334     615   51.84%  27.98%  12.90%
145     2,601   1,333   1,023   47.98%  24.59%  18.87%
146     2,293   1,287   1,338   40.74%  22.87%  23.77%
147     2,039   1,406   1,659   34.39%  23.71%  27.98%
148     3,693   2,219   2,434   39.38%  23.66%  25.96%
149     3,422   2,053   1,524   43.97%  26.38%  19.58%
150    13,090   6,513   4,115   50.51%  25.13%  15.88%

As was the case with yesterday’s analysis, the percentages don’t sum to 100 because of the other candidates, whose numbers are now shown. There’s a lot more of them here, and their collective numbers are larger, but the top three took at least 80% of the vote in all districts, in many cases more than 90%. I briefly thought about including John Kasich’s numbers, but I quickly regained my senses.

The first thing that strikes me is how consistent Donald Trump’s numbers were. With the exception of HD137, he’s in a tight band between 22% and 29%, and even in 137 he’s only just above 30%. He did not win any districts, coming closest in HD134 where Ted Cruz had his weakest showing, but Marco Rubio did. Three cheers for the Establishment, I guess. Cruz won a majority in eight districts. That includes three of the five predominantly Latino districts, though how many Latinos actually voted in the GOP primary is not something I can answer from this data.

I don’t know that I have any deep insights here. 2012 and 2008 were such different years, with 2008 also having different district boundaries, that it’s hard to make meaningful comparisons. The main thing I think we should all take away is that when races are hot enough, more voting may take place on Election Day than one might normally expect. Hopefully, that will inform the decisions about what precinct locations and how many voting machines to have in the future.

2016 Presidential primaries: Clinton and Cruz win in Texas

A good night for Hillary Clinton.

Once again, Texas delivered for a Clinton.

The Texas Tribune projects that Hillary Clinton has easily won a majority of the statewide vote in the Texas Democratic primary, dominating her rival for the party’s nomination, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

As she struggled early on against Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire, her campaign promised the tide would turn once the primary turned to states with substantive minority voting blocs – states like Texas.

Clinton was projected to rack up wins elsewhere Tuesday, in Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, according to national media outlets. Sanders was projected to win Vermont, his home state.

[…]

Hillary Clinton only held one public event in the state – in Houston. Instead, she delegated campaigning duties to her husband who also worked as a Democratic National Committee staffer on the 1972 George McGovern presidential campaign.

“This is a really impressive result and it reflects Hillary’s ties to this city and this county,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, at the campaign’s San Antonio victory party. “She did not need an introduction to Texas because of those deep roots here and Sen. Sanders was a newcomer, so she had almost a home-court advantage but she handled it very effectively.”

Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and mayor of San Antonio Henry Cisneros said Clinton drew from a diverse coalition of support among Texas voters.

“It’s a combination of the loyalty of the Hispanic and African-American communities in Texas who appreciate what she’s done and the groundedness of other Democratic groups like the unions who can distinguish between the abstractions of a candidate like Bernie Sanders and a get-it-done experienced candidate like Hillary Clinton,” Cisneros said.

Here are the statewide results. If you scroll all the way to the bottom, you’ll see that she did very well in individual Senate districts as well, which is how the delegates get doled out. All in all, about as good a night for her as could have been expected.

Not so great for Ted Cruz, despite winning Texas.

Ted Cruz on Tuesday was winning the presidential primary in Texas, carrying his second state in the Republican race for the White House, and apparently notching a third with a narrow edge in Oklahoma.

The Iowa caucus winner was projected to beat billionaire Donald Trump, who had posed a serious threat to Cruz in Texas, even tying him in one recent poll. Cruz’s campaign, not wanting to take any chances, sent the candidate on an 11th-hour tour of the state Monday to shore up support.

In early, unofficial returns Cruz was hovering around 40 percent of the GOP vote, with Trump about 10 percentage points behind.

After news networks called Texas for Cruz, chants of “Ted!” broke out at his election night party at the Redneck County Club.

Shortly after the Texas call, Cruz was also projected to win the Oklahoma primary. Cruz led Trump by about five percentage points, 35 percent to 30 percent. Cruz’s performance outside Texas and its northern neighbor on Tuesday night was otherwise disappointing.

The outcome was a far cry from predictions six months ago, when Cruz called Tuesday’s SEC primary his “firewall,” predicting it would be the day on which he made major progress toward securing the nomination. Up until the final hours before polls closed Tuesday, Cruz was arguing that he was running “neck and neck” with Trump across the Super Tuesday states.

In actuality, Donald Trump kicked Cruz’s butt in most of the other states. But hey’ it could have been worse for Cruz. He could have been Marco Rubio, after all. Statewide GOP results are here.

I did not stay up till the bitter end, but there’s plenty of info out there if you still need it. Basically, it’s looking a lot like Clinton versus Trump. I don’t expect either of them to have a clear field after tonight, but they both sure have a clear path.

Lots more Texas primary poll results

It’s a veritable plethora, ladies and gentlemen. Let’s start with this one, which looks good for Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz.

vote-button

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has a commanding 12-point lead in his home state over businessman Donald Trump as the candidates head into Tuesday’s GOP presidential primary in Texas, according to a Texas Pulse/American-Statesman poll conducted Feb. 19 to 22. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is a distant third.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming 66 to 26 percent lead over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, according to the poll of likely Texas voters, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research for Crosswind Media & Public Relations.

[…]

Among Texas Republicans, the poll found Cruz was first with 38 percent to 26 percent for Trump, 13 percent for Rubio, 7 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich and 6 percent for Dr. Ben Carson. The survey was conducted before and after Saturday’s South Carolina primary, but it concluded before Tuesday’s Nevada caucuses. In both of those contests, Trump won handily with Rubio in second and Cruz a close third.

With the race in flux, polling on the Texas GOP primary has been erratic. An Emerson College survey also released Wednesday found Cruz and Trump virtually tied in the Lone Star State, suggesting that Cruz’s home-field advantage might be eroding after a string of disappointing finishes and bad headlines.

Nonetheless, Cruz’s presidential bid has more home state support than it did in the early stages of the campaign. In a Texas Pulse survey conducted Sept. 11-14, Trump led with 26 percent, Carson was second with 19 percent, Cruz had 15 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race after a poor performance in South Carolina, had 9 percent.

[…]

In the Democratic primary, Clinton’s 40-point lead over Sanders in the Texas Pulse/Statesman survey is far greater than her advantage in other recent polls. A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll conducted Feb. 12-19 showed her with a 10-point lead, and a Public Policy Polling survey from Feb. 14-16 had her up by 23 points.

Thomas Graham, president and CEO of Crosswind, said the Pulse poll might be reflecting increased campaign activity by Clinton in the past few days. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for his wife in Laredo on Monday.

“Team Hillary has really invested in Texas,” Graham said. “There’s been a lot of activity from Hillary’s campaign just in the last couple of days, and I think we’re seeing a result of that.”

My original response to that was “maybe it’s an outlier”, but as you will see from the other results, if it is it’s only by a little. Full poll results are here, and you can see more about the other polls mentioned here and here. For what it’s worth, this poll sampled more Rs than Ds, 620 to 411, but that basically means a 4% margin of error for one and a 5% MOE for the other, so it’s not that big a deal. I do think this poll overstates Clinton’s lead, but it’s clear she has a lead, whereas the GOP side is a bit muddled.

Offering support to both of those statements are two more polls I found via Real Clear Politics. First is this SurveyUSA poll of Texas:

In his home state of Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz cannot shake businessman Donald Trump and his New York values, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for TEGNA Texas. Cruz’s best shot at a Super Tuesday win looks at this hour like he may do no better than a draw. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 2:1. In the Republican Primary, it’s Cruz 32%, Trump 32%, Marco Rubio 17%, others further back. Cruz narrowly leads Trump among Texas’s Hispanic/Latino population, 34% to 27%. Cruz materially leads Trump among Texas’s evangelicals, 42% to 28%. Cruz overwhelmingly leads Trump among those who are members of the Tea Party, 62% to 21%. Cruz leads by 11 points in West Texas, which includes El Paso, Midland and 88 surrounding counties, and by a nominal 3 points in East Texas, which includes Houston and 60 surrounding counties. Cruz leads by 20 points among “very conservative” primary voters. Cruz overpowers Trump among Texas Republican primary voters who in 2012 voted for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich. Trump leads among voters who in 2012 backed Mitt Romney or Ron Paul. Trump leads by 16 points among “moderates” and by 14 points among non-evangelical voters. Trump leads in North Texas, which includes Dallas and 43 surrounding counties, and Trump leads among the least educated Republican primary voters. Trump leads among the most affluent Texans, but Cruz leads among middle-income primary voters. In Central TX, which includes Austin, San Antonio, and 28 surrounding counties, the two candidates run effectively even.

[…]

In the Democratic Primary, it’s Clinton 61%, Sanders 32%. Sanders is backed by 58% of the youngest voters, but Clinton is backed by 70% of middle-aged voters and 82% of seniors. Clinton leads Sanders 4:1 among black voters and Clinton leads Sanders by 40 points among Hispanic voters. Sanders draws near to Clinton, but still trails, among Democratic primary voters who say they are “falling behind” financially. But Clinton overpowers among voters who say they are “doing well” financially or “just getting by.” Of those Democratic primary voters who voted for Clinton in 2008, 86% stick with her in 2016. Among Democratic primary voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders 58% to 33%. Clinton polls at or above 60% in North TX, East TX, Central TX and South TX. Sanders comes close to Clinton in West TX, but still trails her there 48% to 42%.

SUSA does polling of “all adults”, then winnows it down to “likely voters” from there. You can see their data at the link above. Also via RCP is this Dixie Strategies poll:

The latest KTVT-CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll of more than 1,400 likely primary voters in Texas shows Republican Ted Cruz has increased his lead over real estate mogul Donald Trump. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has maintained her lead over Senator Bernie Sanders — though that lead has shrunk a bit.

Looking at the statewide results — according to the poll taken Monday February 22 — Cruz now leads Trump by more than eight percentage points. At the end of January, Cruz was leading by five percentage points. More than 33% of likely GOP primary voters now say they would vote for Ted Cruz while 25% of respondents say they would vote for Trump.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio comes in third at about 15%. That’s almost 3% higher than his poll result back in January.

Dr. Ben Carson and Ohio Governor John Kasich are polling in single digits with Carson remaining largely unchanged at 6% while Kasich pulls ahead of Carson at 8%. That’s compared to 5% and 2% in January’s poll respectively.

[…]

Among likely Democrat primary voters in Texas, Senator Sander’s support has doubled but Clinton maintained her large lead according to the poll numbers. Back in January, almost 16% said they would vote for him. That number now stands at 29%. Clinton still leads Sanders by a wide margin at 61% to 30%. But the gap has closed somewhat between the two candidates. Back in January, 34 points separated the two. That gap has closed to 31 points.

As noted, they did a January poll as well, though that result is no longer counted in the RCP average. Last but not least, coming it later in the day yesterday, is the Monmouth University poll.

Ted Cruz currently has the support of 38% of likely GOP primary voters in his home state of Texas. Donald Trump (23%) and Marco Rubio (21%) are battling it out for second place. They are trailed by Ben Carson (6%) and John Kasich (5%).

Cruz has more support among men (44%) than women (33%), while Rubio has more support among women (24%) than men (18%). Trump draws equally from male (22%) and female (23%) voters in the Lone Star State.

[…]

Texas allows early voting and 18% of those polled report having already cast their vote. Nearly half (44%) of these early voters checked Cruz’s name on their ballots. Another 30% of likely Republican voters say they are completely decided on their candidate choice before they head to the polls and 30% have a strong preference but are still open to considering other candidates. One-in-five either have only a slight preference (8%) or are really undecided (13%) just days before Tuesday’s election.

Cruz would maintain his double digit lead if the race was down to three candidates, earning 43% in a hypothetical match up against just Rubio (26%) and Trump (23%). He could potentially do even better (49%) if the race was against just Trump (28%) and Kasich (15%).

When Texas Republicans are asked if they would be okay with any of the five remaining candidates becoming the party’s nominee, half (50%) say yes and 7% are not sure. Nearly 3-in-10 (28%),
though, say they would be upset if Trump won the nomination. Around 1-in-10 or less say they would be upset if Cruz (12%), Kasich (12%), Rubio (8%), or Carson (6%) got the nod.

This is why I wish there were also some general election polling. I mean, just exactly how upset would those voters be? Enough to say they’re “undecided” in such a poll, or enough to say they’d vote for the Democrat? It’s one thing to have Hillary Clinton run varying amounts behind each of these three candidates but getting about the same level of support in each case, and it’s another to see her support jump six points when matched up against The Donald.

Hillary Clinton currently holds a substantial 64% to 30% lead over Bernie Sanders in the Texas Democratic primary. In 2008, Clinton narrowly beat Barack Obama in this state by a 51% to 47% margin.

Clinton currently enjoys solid leads among black (81% to 8%) and Latino (68% to 32%) voters, and also has an edge among white voters (54% to 40%). She has a sizable lead among women (75% to 19%) and a small lead among men (50% to 45%). She leads among voters age 50 and over (75% to 20%) and also leads among those under the age of 50 (52% to 42%) – a group that Sanders has done well with in past primaries. One factor that boosts Clinton’s support with all these groups is that nearly 6-in-10 likely Democratic voters in Texas describe themselves as politically moderate or conservative rather than liberal. Sanders tends to do better among liberals.

“Texas was good to Hillary Clinton eight years ago and she looks set to do even better this time around,” said Murray.

More than 3-in-4 Lone Star Democrats say that Clinton would do either an excellent (32%) or good (45%) job addressing the most important concerns of families like theirs. This compares to just over half who say the same about Sanders (22% excellent and 33% good).

One-in-five voters (21%) say they have already cast their ballots in the Democratic primary and another 41% say they have completely decided on their candidate choice. A slightly higher number of Clinton voters say they have already voted (24%) or their choice is locked in (44%) when compared to Sanders supporters (18% already voted and 41% completely decided). Another 19% of Democrats have a strong preference but are still open to considering other candidates and 7% have only a slight preference, while 12% say they are still really undecided.

These four results today have been very good for Clinton’s lead over Sanders in the RCP average, which now stands at 59.9 to 33.6. There are now seven polls counted in that – the four from today, the Emerson College and UT/Trib polls, and the multi-state PPP poll from right before early voting started. On the Republican side, the RCP average shows Cruz up on Trump 34.0 to 26.8, with Rubio at 18.2. And as we know by now, finishing third is a win for him. The GOP-only KUHF poll plus all of these others are included in the RCP average for the GOP. Whatever else you can say, you can no longer say there’s a dearth of data.

Two more primary poll results

First we have one from KUHF, though it’s just for the GOP race.

Not Ted Cruz

Not Ted Cruz

One week before Super Tuesday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 14-point lead in the Lone Star State, according to a poll released Wednesday by Houston Public Media and the University of Houston Hobby Center for Public Policy.

It suggests a decisive home state win for Cruz’s wavering campaign, though not the wide margin that experts had long said Cruz should expect. Still, it’s a wider lead than reported in another statewide poll released Tuesday.

The new poll, which contacted 415 likely Republican voters in Texas by phone, shows Cruz with 34.5 percent of the vote, Donald Trump with 20 and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with eight. Undecided voters made up 19 percent in the poll. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

That means that Cruz will likely face off with Trump district-by-district. The Texas primary awards delegates to any candidates with more than 20 percent of votes in each of the state’s 31 Senate districts.

Here’s KUHF’s story, and their results are here. Not sure why you wouldn’t go ahead and do the Dem side as well, but I wasn’t the pollster and no one asked me. I suppose with the debate at UH, there was a branding opportunity. Trail Blazers has more.

Meanwhile, the Emerson College Polling Society also weighs in.

With less than a week until the Texas GOP presidential primary, Senator Ted Cruz is edging out his two chief rivals, with Cruz having 29% of the vote followed by Donald Trump at 28% and Marco Rubio at 25%, according to an Emerson College tracking poll released today. Ohio’s John Kasich is at 9%, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson comes in fifth, with 4%.

In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton holds a solid lead, 56% to 40%, over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. It appears the former Secretary of State is well positioned to notch a decisive win in the delegate-rich Lone Star State, which ranks third−behind California and New York−in the number of delegates up for grabs (252).

Clinton does well with women, who prefer her 62% to 36% over Sanders, and she holds her own with men, who favor her 48% to 46%. Although Sanders has a massive lead, 81% to 18%, among voters ages 18-34, Clinton dominates in the other age categories, holding a 73-point advantage among voters 55-74 and a 76-point edge with those 75 and over.

Of the three GOP leaders, Rubio is seen most positively, with 64% of likely GOP primary voters rating him favorably compared to 29% who view him unfavorably. Cruz’s rating is 56% favorable to 41% unfavorable. Of all the GOP candidates, Trump is the only one under water with a 45% favorable to 50% unfavorable opinion. Clinton (79% favorable to 20% unfavorable) and Sanders (68% to 27%) are both well regarded by likely Democratic primary voters.

Their full dataset is here, in Excel format. One thing I observed about the KUHF result – I did not take the time to browse through the ECPS file – was that a significant number of respondents had already voted. I suppose if you’re going to do a poll this late in the day, that is to be expected. Not sure if that will skew the result or make it more accurate – I could see an argument either way. As it happens, I got called to take a Monmouth poll last night, so we may yet see another result before Tuesday. Thanks to Paradise in Hell for the link.

UT/Trib poll: Clinton and Cruz lead in Texas

I’d been wondering when we were going to get a fresh poll for the Texas primary races.

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders has narrowed considerably in Texas but remains in the double digits among the state’s likely Democratic primary voters, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

The former secretary of state is leading, with 54 percent, a week before the Texas primary, while Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, has the support of 44 percent of the respondents.

Texas voters have six other choices on the Democratic presidential primary ballot: Martin O’Malley, Roque “Rocky” de la Fuente, Willie Wilson, Star Locke, Keith Judd and Calvis Hawes. None attracted significant support from the poll’s respondents.

“This race is narrowing, but not narrowing in a way for the lines to actually cross — especially in Texas,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin and the poll’s co-director. Clinton will win, he said, but the question mark, is the state’s Hispanic voters and their relatively low propensity to vote. “This will be a double-digit race, but I don’t think it’s going to be a 20-point race.”

Clinton has a formidable base of black and Hispanic voters, while Sanders is doing better with Anglos. She leads 70 percent to 27 percent among black voters and 60 percent to 37 percent among Hispanic voters. Sanders, meanwhile, has the support of 55 percent of white voters to Clinton’s 44 percent. Clinton’s advantage, the pollsters said, could swell if her campaign can boost the numbers of Hispanics voting in the state.

“It’s her state to lose,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. “Whether this race is 10 points or 18 points rests almost entirely on your opinion of whether Hispanics are going to turn up to vote.”

Poll results are here. In October. the Trib had Clinton up 61-30, and last June it was 53-15. Trib polls are what they are, and as we know from March of 2014, their primary polling can be a bit iffy, but nothing here strikes me as odd. You can look at Clinton’s support as being lower than it was three months ago, or you can look at it as being stable over the longer term. Sanders, meanwhile, has grown consistently but still can’t quite break out. Turnout is good but not overwhelming, which is consistent with what we have seen in other states and as Steve Benen has noted kind of undercuts Sanders’ claims about activating a huge wave of less-engaged voters. But it’s still early enough here that things can change, and both candidates will be working their ground games, so don’t carve anything into stone.

Meanwhile, in that other primary:

With a week remaining before the Texas Republican primary, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has an 8-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Cruz had 37 percent of the vote in the poll. Trump, the businessman and TV personality who finished first in two of the three states that have already voted, had the support of 29 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 15 percent.

The rest of the candidates were far behind: Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race after the South Carolina primary, had 6 percent; John Kasich, 5 percent; and Ben Carson, 4 percent. The rest of the candidates on the Texas Republican ballot barely registered: Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Elizabeth Gray, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie each got 2 percent or less. Several of those candidates have already suspended their campaigns but were included in the poll because all of their names remain on the Texas ballot.

“These numbers reflect what most of us think was going on in Texas: It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

What looked like a three-candidate race coming out of South Carolina looks more like a two-person race in Texas, with Cruz and Trump almost certainly in position to split the state’s 155 Republican delegates. Among likely Republican primary voters who identify with the Tea Party, Cruz leads Trump 56 percent to 26 percent in the UT/TT Poll. Among voters who identify as Republicans when given the choice to bolt for the Tea Party, the candidates were relatively even: Cruz had 32 percent to Trump’s 30 percent. Rubio had 18 percent of those voters, and 8 percent of those who identify with the Tea Party.

Cruz and Trump were tied with 27 each in October, and Cruz had 20 while Trump was still a non-entity in June, back when the likes of Rick Perry and Scott Walker still roamed the earth. The RCP average for Texas closely mirrors this result, not too surprising given the overall paucity of polling.

I confess, I had hoped there would be general election matchups included in this poll. You’d only need to test six combinations, which is well within most polls’ capabilities. Perhaps they did do that and are rolling out their full set of numbers over the week. I hope that’s the case, but we’ll see. Regardless, some more primary polling would be nice as well. PDiddie and Stace have more.

2015 Lyceum poll, day two

Once again, here’s the press release:

An independent poll conducted by the Texas Lyceum, a non-partisan, nonprofit statewide leadership group, shows billionaire real estate mogul and reality TV star Donald Trump leading U.S. Senator Ted Cruz by five points (21 percent-16 percent) in Texas in the 2016 Republican Presidential nominating contest. The survey also shows former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead in the Democratic primary, but trailing in a November 2016 general election among Texas voters.

“We are proud to publicly share the results of our ninth Texas Lyceum Poll with Texas’ policymakers, scholars and citizens,” said 2015 Lyceum President Jane Cummins. “We included a diverse set of questions ranging from U.S. presidential contenders to a variety of issues facing our state. We will continue to use the poll as a foundation for discussion at our annual public conferences and quarterly meetings, and readily share these valuable data to inform public policy discussions in Texas.”

Trump’s support in the Lyceum Poll remains consistent with national polls across most age groups: including those 65 and older, 45 to 64, and 30 to 44, only trailing retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson by one point (22 percent to 21 percent) among potential Republican Primary voters under the age of 29.

Due to the large field of candidates, the Lyceum poll asked, “who would be your second choice” for president? This question revealed that 37 percent of Trump’s voters would support Ted Cruz, followed by 24 percent for Carson.

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field with 36 percent of the vote followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (24 percent), Vice President Joe Biden (15 percent), and former Virginia Senator Jim Webb (2 percent).

Looking ahead to the November 2016 general election in Texas, Clinton trails Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump by eight, seven, and two points, respectively. However, she is ahead of Florida Senator Marco Rubio by seven points

“Mrs. Clinton actually polls better in Texas right now than one might have expected,” said Prof. Daron Shaw, who oversees the Lyceum Poll along with Lyceum Research Director, Joshua Blank. “But this is primarily due to her greater name recognition and the divisiveness of the GOP contest at this early stage.”

Texas and National Economy

Despite a declining state unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, down from 4.8 percent this time last year, Texans see the economy as stagnant compared to a year ago. Looking to the national economy, Texans’ attitudes are mixed. A plurality believes we are worse off than last year (34 percent), but an almost equal proportion (31 percent) says that the national economy has improved.

Job Approval

In the poll, which was conducted September 8 – 21, 56 percent of likely voters approve of the job Governor Abbott is doing. Meanwhile, the poll shows a slight bump (eight percent) in approval ratings for President Obama compared to last year’s Lyceum poll. A majority of respondents, 52 percent, indicated that President Obama is either doing a “very good” or “somewhat good” job as president, compared with 44 percent who indicated that the president is doing either a “somewhat poor” or “very poor” job.

Here is the Executive Summary, and here are the poll results, which you can compare to the Texas Pulse poll from last week. If you look at the data, you may note that President Obama has a shockingly good approval rating – 52% positive, which stands in stark contrast to the Texas Pule number of 41% approval. In response to my question, pollster Daron Shaw noted that this is a sample of adults, so it is fairly heavily non-Anglo, and thus more favorable for Obama than a likely-voter or even a registered-voter sample would be. Those of you out there that like to say that Texas isn’t a Republican state so much as it is a non-voting state may feel a little smug now. Not that it changes anything in the here and now, of course.

Let’s take a closer look at those November matchup numbers:

Candidates RVs LVs ======================= Jeb! 32 35 Clinton 27 27 HTMUAI 41 39 Cruz 31 39 Clinton 31 32 HTMUAI 37 29 Rubio 22 27 Clinton 32 34 HTMUAI 44 40 Trump 33 39 Clinton 38 37 HTMUAI 29 25

“HTMUAI” = “Haven’t thought much about it”, which is the “don’t know/no opinion” answer for this poll. The large values for that answer is what you’d expect for this early in the cycle, and as such I wouldn’t make too much of any individual contest. Rubio is the least known – if he does turn out to be the nominee, you can expect his higher profile and normal partisan affiliation will make up the gap. Hard to say if Clinton draws actual crossovers from Trump or if that pairing just gets more people off the fence. File it away for later and see what movement we get once the dust starts to settle in the GOP race.

As for the primary results, there’s nothing here to suggest Hillary Clinton has anything to fear in Texas; the Pulse poll says the same thing. We are of course six months out from said primary, and anything can happen – if Sanders takes the lead nationally and/or starts racking up states, you can be sure the numbers here would reflect that. On the GOP side, one presumes Ted Cruz would prosper if Trump drops out. I can’t help but feel that Cruz has a hard ceiling, sort of like Trump does. It’s hard to be that universally loathed and not have some limits on one’s potential. Again, we’ll know more once that field has been winnowed a bit. What do you make of these numbers?

Uber is working hard to make itself unlikeable

It’s almost as if it’s a deliberate part of their business plan.

“We’re in a political campaign, and the candidate is Uber, and the opponent is an asshole named Taxi,” Travis Kalanick, the CEO of ride-sharing company Uber, said while on stage at a conference in late May. “Nobody likes him, he’s not a nice character, but he’s so woven into the political machinery and fabric that a lot of people owe him favors.”

Kalanick wasn’t bluffing. Uber really is the candidate: It has been interviewing potential campaign managers–real ones, from real presidential campaigns–for months. A source close to the hiring process told me, “They want somebody who has been steeped in that political warfare.”

And for good reason.

In the process of trying to force regulators to concede to its enormous popularity, “Uber” has become, in some ways, a loaded political term. And observers and participants alike are questioning, in real time, how much government interference is too much.

Uber, which in June was valued at $17 billion, appears to be launching a full-scale political operation—complete with backroom operators and face-saving strategists.

To combat governmental hostility, Uber has hired political muscle all over the country: in D.C., it has the Franklin Square Group (Apple, Google). In New York, it has Bradley Tusk (Michael Bloomberg’s former campaign manager). In Chicago, it has Michael Kasper (the lawyer who got Rahm Emanuel on the ballot). Additionally, it has lobbyists in Miami, Baltimore, Houston, and Denver.

And Uber’s not the only member of the new sharing economy who’s gone political. Airbnb, a housing and rental service estimated to be worth $10 billion, has hired one of the most-connected operators in New York—and even formed its own “grassroots” political organization.

Kalanick (who did not respond to multiple requests for an interview) looks like a television preacher, appears on Gwyneth Paltrow’s Instagram, and once joked to a journalist about how the success of Uber increased his desirability to women: “Yeah, we call that the Boob-er.”

For a time, Kalanick’s Twitter avatar was the cover of Ayn Rand’s The Fountainhead—which he has repeatedly said was not the sort of bold political statement some have made it out to be. (In other interviews, he has indicated Rand has influenced his thinking.) But it is difficult to not see some parallels between Uber’s business model and libertarianism.

Given that, it’s not surprising that Uber is gaining friends on the right side of the political aisle. For example, Grover Norquist, the anti-tax activist, on Thursday Tweeted “Today, there are two political parties/movements in America. One is UBER, the other is with taxi commission. Choose.”

Overwhelmingly, the political types who openly support Uber—Norquist and Republican Senator Marco Rubio, to name two—are the ones who were demonizing regulators long before the phrase “call an Uber” had ever been uttered. But now, of course, the phrase has been said millions of times in multiple languages across the globe.

Companies like Uber—along with Airbnb and less popular services like Zilok (which lets you rent “anything” from strangers)—make up the sharing economy, a community in which individuals rent out their possessions or their labor, and businesses act as middlemen, helping to arrange plans. Uber and Lyft (another ride-sharing service) will connect passengers with drivers, but won’t provide a car. Similarly, Airbnb will introduce homeowners to those looking for a place to stay, but doesn’t own properties.

The distinction of not owning any hardware, sharing economy companies would like customers and regulators alike to believe, should make all the difference when it comes to the law. Except, it doesn’t—at least not yet. The fact remains that Uber and Airbnb have built multibillion-dollar empires by operating in places where they are illegal, and so they are turning political to protect themselves.

Jesus. As you know, I’ve been basically supportive of the efforts to revamp Houston’s vehicle for hire ordinances. I believe the existing taxi industry does not adequately serve the whole city, I believe there is room for the market to grow with the new services, and I think Houston’s emerging image as a dynamic place to live would benefit from including the newcomers and would suffer from excluding them. But as I’ve also said, Uber in particular has done an amazingly effective job of alienating the people they should be courting, with their decision to go rogue and start operating as if they’d been approved even though they’re still not legal, thus putting their drivers and potentially their customers at risk while utterly disregarding the concerns of the existing players. I’ve marveled more than once at how a company with that much venture funding, and that much at stake because of it, could be so cavalier about the process that will ultimately determine whether or not they get to do business in a given city. I suppose this is one answer to those questions.

(Side note: While I have generally lumped Uber and Lyft together in these discussions, it strikes me that Uber has been by far the worse actor of the two. Lyft has also had drivers charging for rides, but they followed Uber’s lead, and overall my impression is simply that they’ve been less obnoxious, at least as far as I can see. Maybe there’s more going on that I haven’t seen, but this is how it looks to me.)

One has to wonder if Uber and its allies are self-aware enough to realize the potential for political consequences, in particular for undermining their own efforts. Campos made an interesting observation last week:

H-Town City Council takes next week off then comes back after the Fourth of July. I am thinking the next big issue before them is the vehicle-for-hire ordinance. Let me say again that I don’t have a dog in this hunt. That being said I’m thinking don’t put your money on the Uber and Lyft movements. First of all I think they have pi__ed off folks here in H-Town by operating illegally. Second of all I think they have been completely outflanked by the disabilities community. Uber and Lyft don’t have an answer to their concerns. Thirdly, their demographic isn’t a political force in our burg – they don’t vote. Fourthly, Uber and Lyft don’t have any roots in our community and that has to count for something – don’t you think? Stay tuned!

I’ve generally been of the opinion that Council would accommodate the newcomers, at least in some fashion, but I’ve also said that there isn’t much of an early indicator how the vote will go. What I do know is that if this turns into a partisan fight, the Republican side is outnumbered. Counting CM Costello, who isn’t much of an R these days but who is a self-proclaimed supporter of Uber and Lyft, there are seven Rs out of 17 votes on Council (Mayor Parker gets a vote, too), so at least two crossovers would be needed. That could certainly happen, but most other large cities are predominantly Democratic, and I don’t think having Grover Norquist and Marco Rubio as Uber’s champions will do them much good in those environs. But hey, they’re obviously so much smarter than the rest of us, so I’m sure they know what they’re doing.

From the “Simple Answers To Simple Questions” department

Is Rick Perry the next Comeback Kid?

Corndogs make bad news go down easier

Corndogs are always in style

Americans love a comeback story.

Tiger Woods has clawed himself back on top of the pro golf tour after a nasty scandal involving nightclub waitresses, lingerie models and his wife swinging a 9-iron near his head. But the whole golf world is watching to see if he can capture another Grand Slam, thus confirming his sponsor Nike’s new TV ad: “Winning Takes Care of Everything.”

The New York Times Magazine has a cover story about disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s plunge back into public life after a marital and political catastrophe. In South Carolina, former Gov. Mark Sanford is making a political comeback.

Bill Clinton once declared himself the “Comeback Kid.” John McCain jump-started a moribund campaign in 2008. And the 2004 Boston Red Sox surmounted nearly impossible odds to win the World Series.

Comeback stories, all.

And then there is Rick Perry, who famously blew up his front-runner presidential bid with an oops moment in which he couldn’t remember all three federal agencies he promised to abolish. A poll showed that even Texans, embarrassed for the state, didn’t want him to run again.

But the Republican governor is sending signals he might join the GOP sweepstakes for 2016.

There seems to be little going for another Perry bid. The big-money contributors who helped launch his brief, spectacular flameout might be reluctant to dig deep again. A reputation as a less-than-informed politico now precedes him.

Bob Vander Plaats, an influential conservative Christian activist in the key early-voting state of Iowa, didn’t even volunteer Perry’s name when asked about the GOP’s prospects to win back the White House in 2016.

Inside the Perry camp, word is that some around him who would benefit are encouraging Perry to run again — this time by studying up on the issues, getting enough rest and meticulously tending to grass-roots voters in a way he didn’t last year.

Playing the comeback card might be one of the few things Perry has going for him.

No. No, he is not poised for a “comeback”, and no, he has no future as a Presidential candidate in 2016. Even if you can somehow forget what a massive clusterfsck his 2012 campaign was, he’s still yesterday’s news. Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz are the new hotness, and Rick Santorum gets whatever benefit there is to be derived from being runnerup to Mitt Romney. But speaking as someone who loves a good farce, I’m all in for him to make another attempt. I can’t wait to see what he tries to do for an encore. If it means he runs for Governor again and thus continues to frustrate the ambitions of Greg Abbott, so much the better. Oh, and on a side note, maybe Mark Sanford isn’t a good role model for this after all. Via the equally skeptical Burka.