It’ll be there until there’s a final answer.
Even as some Texas Democrats are optimistic about their chances in next year’s midterm elections, the party’s most recognizable names are so far avoiding the chance to take on Gov. Greg Abbott, whose approval rating is at an all-time low as he seeks a record fourth term.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Dallas Democrat who has among the highest name recognition in the state, told Hearst Newspapers this week that the only statewide race she is considering is for U.S. Senate — potentially joining an already crowded Democratic primary featuring two of the party’s other most prominent young prospects: James Talarico and Colin Allred.
But Abbott is fresh off a series of polarizing battles — from his push for school vouchers to redrawing the state’s congressional map — that showed the Republican governor closer than ever before to President Donald Trump. That no major candidate appears ready to challenge him has left some Democrats and political analysts scratching their heads.
“I think failing to run a serious candidate against Greg Abbott is a mistake,” said Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist. “There’s a sense he’s more vulnerable than any other time he’s been governor. He’s become such a polarizing figure.”
The governor had a 40% job approval in August, according to polling by the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project. It was the lowest approval rating he has registered since taking office in 2015. Half of Texas voters disapprove of Abbott, meanwhile — matching an all-time high in 2021. The trend was even worse among independents, 55% of whom disapproved, though that was down from a peak of 60% in June. Just 19% approved.
A majority of Texas voters also said they believe the state is on the wrong track for the first time since August 2023. Only 38% said it is headed in the right direction.
Joshua Blank, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project, said the findings don’t mean Abbott is vulnerable at the moment. The governor has a massive war chest, no serious Republican primary challengers and plenty of time to moderate his messaging.
I should note that in my casual observation, governors are least popular at the end of a legislative session. That seemed to be the case with Rick Perry as well as with Abbott. I can’t go all G. Elliott Morris on you here, I don’t have the data at hand, this is just my anecdotal reckoning, which I put here to say that Abbott’s approval rating could drift back up just because people aren’t hearing so much about the terrible things the Lege is doing. It also may drift down if the same happens with Trump and the economy goes in the dumpster.
“Is he vulnerable? Not currently,” Blank said of Abbott. “However, if people’s concerns about the economy don’t reverse, if 2026 looks like 2018, and if Democrats manage to put together a credible ticket that’s well funded, we could see a pretty competitive election.”
“The thing that’s sort of inexplicably missing at this point is a challenger,” Blank said.
Angle said he is confident a competitive race will develop. He said he thinks many Democrats were waiting to see how the Senate field shook out. That race has drawn most of the attention, with an already bruising Republican primary between U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, who Democrats see as an ideal opponent.
[…]
Abbott is not without any challengers already. Bobby Cole, a rancher and retired firefighter, has filed to run. Bay City Councilman Benjamin Flores is running, as well.
The field appears set to grow. Andrew White, son of the late Gov. Mark White, on Tuesday filed initial papers to run for governor again. The 52-year-old Houstonian lost a Democratic primary runoff in 2018 to Lupe Valdez, the former Dallas County sheriff who later lost to Abbott in the November general election.
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat, recently registered several domain names indicating she could be gearing up for a gubernatorial campaign. A source familiar with her plans said she is “strongly considering all her options for how to serve Texas.”
Beto O’Rourke, the state’s best-known Democrat, hasn’t publicly ruled out a rematch against Abbott after losing his 2022 bid.
O’Rourke declined to comment for this article, but earlier this year, he told CBS11: “I’m taking nothing off the table.”
See here for more on Andrew White and Gina Hinojosa. Andrew White has now made it official; I’ll have more on that tomorrow. As for Rep. Hinojosa, for all we know she was just responding to a special offer from her domain registrar. And Beto, I dunno. He too would have to show something different from his previous candidacies, if only to prove that he’s not the same-old, same-old. There are plenty of people who are excited by Beto as a candidate, and there are plenty of people who would prefer he not run for anything again. He too will need to show how he’s learned and grown since 2018 and 2022. If he’s running, about which we’ll have to wait and see.