It’s been long enough since the election that I feel like I can go back and look at some numbers. Not a whole lot of good out there, but we’ll try to learn what we can. To start off, here are all of the Democratic non-incumbent candidates for the State House and a comparison of their vote total and percentage to those of Bill White and Linda Chavez-Thompson from 2010:
Dist Candidate Votes White LCT Cand% White% LCT%
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014 Metscher 6,353 9,980 7,540 28.5 36.3 27.8
016 Hayles 4,744 8,490 5,995 13.6 22.5 15.9
017 Banks 12,437 17,249 12,852 35.4 43.3 32.8
020 Wyman 10,871 15,512 11,232 22.7 31.4 22.9
021 Bruney 9,736 13,174 10,499 25.6 31.3 25.3
023 Criss 14,716 19,224 15,866 45.4 50.1 41.8
026 Paaso 11,074 16,104 12,290 30.3 37.0 28.4
043 Gonzalez 10,847 14,049 12,635 38.6 45.8 41.7
044 Bohmfalk 9,796 13,369 9,847 24.3 32.1 23.7
052 Osborn 12,433 12,896 10,539 38.5 39.4 32.4
058 Kauffman 6,530 10,672 6,913 19.5 29.0 18.9
061 Britt 7,451 10,103 6,725 17.0 23.4 15.6
063 Moran 9,016 10,797 8,107 22.7 27.4 20.6
064 Lyons 12,578 12,238 9,722 33.8 38.0 30.3
065 Mendoza 10,419 10,926 8,921 35.7 37.3 30.5
083 Tarbox 6,218 9,664 6,250 18.7 25.9 16.8
084 Tishler 6,336 9,444 6,969 27.3 33.7 24.9
085 Drabek 9,628 14,460 10,758 33.4 44.8 33.6
087 Bosquez 3,656 6,945 4,736 15.6 25.4 17.4
089 Karmally 11,105 11,192 8,925 28.4 31.7 25.4
091 Ragan 9,346 10,214 8,039 28.2 32.2 25.4
092 Penney 12,553 12,374 10,020 36.4 35.7 29.0
094 Ballweg 16,461 14,852 12,247 40.5 37.1 30.7
102 Clayton 12,234 15,709 12,110 37.5 44.1 34.3
105 Motley 10,469 11,766 9,793 42.7 43.8 36.7
106 Osterholt 9,586 9,112 7,212 27.5 30.1 23.8
107 Donovan 13,803 14,878 11,936 45.0 46.3 37.5
108 Bailey 16,170 17,401 12,859 39.3 42.0 31.3
113 Whitley 12,044 13,483 11,575 40.6 44.8 38.7
115 Stafford 11,761 12,428 9,955 39.5 39.8 32.0
129 Gay 12,519 17,441 12,896 32.2 37.5 28.0
132 Lopez 10,504 12,016 9,677 33.8 37.9 30.8
133 Nicol 11,728 19,800 12,595 25.4 35.7 22.9
134 Ruff 20,312 31,553 21,380 38.8 51.0 35.1
135 Abbas 10,162 13,971 11,005 34.1 39.6 31.4
136 Bucy 15,800 14,742 12,031 41.1 39.7 32.6
138 Vernon 8,747 12,918 9,878 33.2 40.5 31.2
150 Perez 10,317 13,086 9,829 26.8 31.0 23.4
The most encouraging numbers come from Williamson and Tarrant Counties. I discussed the race in HD94 before the election, where the combination of Wendy Davis’ presence on the ballot plus the outsized wingnuttery of Republican candidate Tony Tinderholt helped boost the performance of Democratic challenger Cole Ballweg. Tina Penney, running in HD92 against freshman Jonathan Stickland, also benefited. We’ll want to see what the full comparisons for this year look like, but Tarrant Dems ought to look to those two districts for a place to try to make further gains in 2016.
Nearby in Denton County, Emy Lyons in HD64 and Lisa Osterholt in HD106 both exceeded Bill White’s vote total, though not his percentage. I don’t know offhand where those districts are relative to the city of Denton, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the fracking ban referendum helped them a bit. These results are a reminder of two things – the importance of local issues in engaging voters in off years, and that it’s not enough in places like Denton County to increase vote totals. You have to keep up with the overall population increase as well. Otherwise, you’re falling farther behind even as you move forward. I’ll give Sameena Karmally in Collin County’s HD89 a nod for a decent showing in that tough district as well, with the same caveat about keeping up with the overall growth.
In Williamson, John Bucy’s strong showing in HD136 against freshman Tony Dale should make it a top target for 2016. Bucy nearly equaled President Obama’s 41.2% in HD136 from 2012, so there’s plenty to build on there. Chris Osborn didn’t do too badly in HD52, either. Note that in each district, the Libertarian candidate scored around five points – 5.03% in HD52, and 4.70% in HD136 – so the win number in each of those districts could wind up being less than 48%.
Finally, in Dallas County, the Battleground-backed candidates all fell short, but generally didn’t do too badly, and they continue to offer the best pickup opportunities for continuously Republican-held seats in HDs 105, 107, and 113. An ambitious goal for the Presidential election year would be to win back HDs 117 and 144, and take over 105, 107, 113, and 136. With no statewide race above the level of Railroad Commissioner but Presidential year turnout – if we work at it – to make things more competitive, I see no reason not to view that as a starting point.
That’s not all we should focus on, of course – I agree with Campos that we should put a lot of effort into local race around the state, which in Harris County means finding and funding a challenger to County Commissioner Steve Radack. Frankly, we should be doing that in 2015 as well, in municipal and school board races. Maybe that will help some people understand that we hold elections in the other three years, too, and their participation in those elections is needed and would be appreciated. This is something we all can and should work on.
Good numbers Charles. One of the hassles in doing district comparisons is the impact redistricting has on the numbers. I’d be curious to see if there were any redistricting changes on those districts. It would be hard to measure since you would have to get down to the precinct level.
It took me a while to grok that this was “comparing the 2010 vote of … to statewide ballot Dems for Governor and Lt. Governor in each of the districts”.
Randy, having stared at the Karmally numbers for the last months, I’m pretty sure Charles is looking at the 2010 results within current boundaries.
John – Yes, that is correct. The Texas Legislative Council has all this data, and it is exactly that – the 2010 results (in this case) within the current boundaries. They have the same thing for all the elections from 2002 through 2012. My apologies if this was insufficiently clear in my post.