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Dean, Dean, the debate-making machine

More on the is-Dean-electable debate, for the three or four of you who aren’t already obsessed with it and/or sick of it, from Teixeira, MyDD, Demosthenes, Yglesias, Democratic Underground, and a Canadian perspective from Ikram Saeed. Check them out.

One erratum from my own entry: The states that Bush won in 2000 are now worth 278 electoral votes thanks to the reapportionment that followed the 2000 Census. As such, any Democratic candidate would need to either peel off more than one red state (just New Hampshire wouldn’t be enough) or would need one of the bigger ones, such as Missouri. That makes the South a bit more important to consider, but still not vital and in my opinion not as potentially lucrative as the West. I should note that The Scrum says it all comes down to three states – Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, in what they call their FlaPaMi hypothesis. That’s good news and bad news for both sides. They have some more detailed Bush approval numbers from those states as well.

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One Comment

  1. Alex says:

    It’s true that there is a need to peel off more than one state. However, Nevada, at 4 votes, is probably a given for any Dem who runs a competent campaign, because Bush barely won it in 2000 and has since become very unpopular due to the Yucca Mtn plan. On the other side, Gore won very close races in Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. None of those can be taken for granted in 2004.