Previously: Congress, and Statewide. As before, I am using the Patrick Svitek spreadsheet as my primary reference.
Buckle up, there’s a lot to talk about here. I’m going to limit my discussion of State House races to the greater Houston area.
SBOE: There are three SBOE seats on the ballot that were carried by Beto in 2018. Winning all three would give Democrats am 8-7 majority on this famously flaky board. One of these seats in within Harris County, and that’s SBOE6, where Michelle Palmer and Debra Kerner have been in for some time.
State Senate: Unlike 2018, there’s really only one competitive district on the ballot, and that’s SD19, the seat Dems fumbled away in the special election. State Rep. Roland Gutierrez and Xochil Peña Rodriguez, daughter of former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, are in. Despite the self-own in 2018, the district is basically 55-45 Dem, with a bit of variance on either end. Beto took it by 15 points, but even Lupe Valdez cleared fifty percent. A return to normal partisan behavior should make Pete Flores a temporary Senator.
Democratic incumbents Carol Alvarado (SD06) and Borris Miles (SD13) do not have primary opponents as yet. I tend to think someone will run against Miles after those harassment allegations against him were reported, but if so it will likely be a newcomer. One other Dem who both needs and has primary opponents is Eddie Lucio; I discussed Ruben Cortez and Sara Stapleton-Barrera, his known opponents, here. SD29 in El Paso is open following the retirement of Jose Rodriguez, with State Rep. Cesar Blanco the only contender to succeed him so far.
The two Republican-held seats in the Houston area have Dem challengers. For SD04, mostly in Montgomery County, there’s Jay Stittleburg, who ran for Montgomery County Judge in 2018. Griffin Winkworth is listed in the spreadsheet as having filed a designation of Treasurer. SD11 has two contenders: Margarita Ruiz Johnson, who was a candidate for CD22 in 2018 but did not advance to the runoff, and Susan Criss, former District Court judge in Galveston County and candidate for HD23 in 2014. Neither district is particularly competitive – Beto got 41.5% in SD11, but most Republicans carried it by 20 or more.
State House: Let’s start with the districts that don’t have Dem challengers yet. As noted, this is limited to the greater Houston area. You can peruse the spreadsheet at your leisure for other districts.
HD03 (Montgomery/Waller)
HD15 (Montgomery)
HD16 (Montgomery)
HD18 (Liberty)
HD23 (Galveston)
HD24 (Galveston)
HD29 (Brazoria)
HD85 (Fort Bend/Wharton/Jackson)
HD127 (Harris)
HD129 (Harris)
HD133 (Harris)
HD150 (Harris)
HDs 29 (which originally had a Dem who later withdrew) and 127 were the only ones in 2018 that went unchallenged. HD29 in particular is a district of interest, as it was a 47% Beto district in 2018.
Now for Republican-held districts that do have Dem challengers, at least according to the spreadsheet.
HD25 (Brazoria, the now-open Dennis Bonnen seat) – Someone named J. Patrick Henry, whom I cannot conclusively identify.
HD26 (Fort Bend) – Sarah DeMerchant, the 2018 candidate; Rish Oberoi; Suleman Lalani.
HD28 (Fort Bend) – We all know about Eliz Markowitz, right?
HD126 (Harris) – Natali Hurtado, the 2018 candidate.
HD128 (Harris) – Josh Markle, who got a nice fundraising boost from Beto after his little tiff with incumbent Briscoe Cain over automatic weapons.
HD130 (Harris) – Bryan Henry.
HD134 (Harris) – Ann Johnson, the 2012 candidate; Ruby Powers; Lanny Bose, the most recent entrant.
HD138 (Harris) – Akilah Bacy; Josh Wallenstein, who was a candidate in the primary for HCDE at large in 2018.
Two Democratic incumbents so far have primary opponents, Alma Allen in HD131 (Carey Lashley) and Garnet Coleman in HD147 (Aurelia Wagner). Both always seem to draw primary opponents, for whatever the reason. Ron Reynolds in HD26 usually draws one as well, for reasons that are more clear. I note that the spreadsheet lists Richard Bonton as a Republican opponent for Harold Dutton in HD142. Bonton ran against Dutton in the Dem primary in 2018.
We can’t end this conversation without bringing up HD148. I fully expect Anna Eastman to win the special election runoff, which is most likely be on December 14, the same day as the city of Houston runoffs. It doesn’t have to be on the 14th – Greg Abbott sets the runoff date, and he has some discretion. The last time we had a special election for a State Rep seat in an odd year was 2005 with the election in HD143, and that runoff was held on the same date as the city runoffs. Not a guarantee, but a data point. In any event, whatever happens in that race, there’s no reason to believe that some other candidates won’t file for the primary in HD148 as well. Any of the runners up may conclude that this was a wonky election, and that maybe they lost some votes to not-that-Adrian-Garcia. For sure, the primary will have a very different electorate, and Anna Eastman will not be very well known to them. I will be a little surprised if Eastman has the primary to herself.
Last but not least in this series: county races. I don’t get to lean on the spreadsheet for that one.
I can tell you that up here in MoCo, Griffin Winkworth is out in SD04 and Jay Stittleburg is in the race. House Districts 03 and 15 have likely candidates, but I’m still looking in 16.
I expect Luis LaRotta to take the HD 148 run-off with surprising level of support from normally Democrat Latino voters on the east side of the district where he lived in the past.
For information regarding the democrat running for state representative in Texas HD 25, please see: henryforhd25.com .
John Patrick Henry III is a former Mayor of Angleton and retired teacher who was inspired to run for state representative due to the state legislature’s handling of public education in Texas and continued threats to local control. Patrick Henry is running to give voters a choice against one-party domination in Brazoria County. This position has not been challenged in the general election since 2008 and no democrat has run for the position since 2004.
I expect Luis LaRotta to take the HD 148 run-off with surprising level of support from normally Democrat Latino voters on the east side of the district where he lived in the past.
@mainstream–Any interest in a friendly wager on it? How about loser donates $100 to the American Red Cross? I’d rather stay anonymous on this board, but I can show a redacted version of my online receipt if LaRotta wins. Are you in?
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blank, I don’t gamble as a rule, but I have donated $100 today to American Red Cross and if my prediction comes true, you can add to it. I trust you to keep your word.
LaRottas path is pretty slim. Democratic candidates got 68 percent. Even if Carmona is included with the GOP, the GOP got 32 percent. Anglo/African American Dems got 36 percent.
LaRotta is listed as a Republican on the ballot, and he is a VERY conservative Republican too.
The fact that he has a Hispanic last name may help him somewhat. But he likely needs over half the votes of the supporters of the Hispanic Democratic candidates. I dont see him coming close to doing that. Leal and Shaw voters in particular will probably show up and break heavily for Eastman.
If LaRottas support in the Eastside of the district was evident, it would have manifested itself last week.
@mainstream–Cool. I just donated $100 to the American Red Cross too. An image of my receipt is at the link below:
https://i1113.photobucket.com/albums/k506/blanktx/Screen%20Shot%202019-11-14%20at%201.21.04%20PM_zpssfmiwhxs.png
We can just call this a gentleman’s bet.