Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Precinct analysis: Hillary in Harris County

Posted on November 14, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s get started with the precinct data, shall we? Here’s a Chron story from the day after the election about how things looked overall in the county. The country’s most populous swing county turned a shade bluer Tuesday, when Hillary … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged CD07, Commissioners Court, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Gary Johnson, Harris County, HD134, HD138, Heights, Hillary Clinton, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, precinct analysis, President, runoff, SBOE, special election, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 5 Comments

Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

Posted on November 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Bexar County, Brazoria County, Cameron County, Collin County, Comal County, Court of Criminal Appeals, Dallas County, Denton County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Hays County, Hidalgo County, Hillary Clinton, Johnson County, Keith Hampton, Mike Keasler, Montgomery County, Parker County, Polk County, precinct analysis, President, Robert Burns, Sharon Keller, Tarrant County, Texas, Texas Organizing Project, Travis County, turnout, Webb County, Williamson County | 5 Comments

Chron overview of HD134

Posted on October 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Ben Rose, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, HD134, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Flipping Fort Bend

Posted on October 16, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

FiveThirtyEight projects a national insight down to the local level. In August, Nate Cohn of The New York Times put it well when he wrote: “The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Blake Farenthold, Brewster County, CD27, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Fort Bend County, Hillary Clinton, Hudspeth County, Kenedy County, Mitt Romney, Nueces County, polls, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Uvalde County | Comments Off

Three State Rep race overviews

Posted on October 15, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

In the order of their publication, beginning with HD149: For more than a decade in Texas House District 149 – where Harris and Fort Bend counties meet – a growing, ethnically diverse voting population has done something rare for the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Bryan Chu, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Gene Wu, Gilbert Pena, HD137, HD144, HD149, Hubert Vo, Kendall Baker, Mary Ann Perez, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: HISD Trustee district VII in a Presidential year

Posted on August 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, we have a special election for HISD Trustee in district VII on the ballot this November. There’s one Democratic candidate in that race and three Republicans. These races are normally held in odd-numbered years, in which turnout … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Anne Sung, Barack Obama, Election 2012, Election 2013, Election 2016, Harris County, Harvin Moore, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, special election, turnout | 1 Comment

Still considering the possibility that Hillary could win Texas

Posted on August 15, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Josh Barro looks at recent national poll numbers and contemplates the possibilities. If things get just a little bit worse for Trump nationally, he could start losing a lot of states we normally think of as very safe for Republicans … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton, polls, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 7 Comments

An early look ahead to the legislative races

Posted on June 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016 | Tagged Barack Obama, Cindy Burkett, Election 2012, Election 2016, Gilbert Pena, HD102, HD105, HD107, HD112, HD113, HD117, HD118, HD136, HD144, HD23, HD43, HD54, HD78, Jeffrey Lane, Jimmie Don Aycock, JM Lozano, Joe Moody, John Lujan, Kenneth Sheets, Laura Irvin, Linda Koop, Lloyd Criss, Marisa Garcia-Utley, Mary Ann Perez, Mitt Romney, Philip Cortez, precinct analysis, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, Rick Galindo, Rodney Anderson, Sandra Blankenship, Scott Cosper, Terry Meza, Texas, The Lege, Tomas Uresti, Victoria Neave, Wayne Faircloth | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: 2016 Republican Presidential primary

Posted on March 9, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

How did things look on the Republican side, with its record-breaking (though not 2008 level) turnout? Dist Cruz Trump Rubio Cruz% Trump% Rubio% ====================================================== 126 9,206 5,012 3,604 46.45% 25.29% 18.18% 127 13,475 6,585 4,579 49.53% 24.20% 16.83% 128 10,789 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Harris County, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, precinct analysis, President, primaries, Ted Cruz, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2016 Democratic Presidential primary

Posted on March 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I love the smell of precinct data in the morning, don’t you? Here’s a breakdown of the Democratic Presidential primary vote for Harris County: Dist Bernie Hillary Bernie% Hill% ====================================== 126 2,315 4,649 33.04% 66.35% 127 2,621 4,905 34.54% 64.64% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2016, The making of the President | Tagged Bernie Sanders, Democratic primary, Election 2008, Election 2016, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, precinct analysis, President | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: Controller runoff

Posted on December 31, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

One last election to review: Dist Brown Frazer ====================== A 5,232 7,918 B 13,161 2,616 C 15,244 15,726 D 16,390 4,197 E 6,118 16,073 F 3,890 3,527 G 8,775 21,762 H 6,558 3,117 I 5,253 2,731 J 2,794 2,763 K … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Bill Frazer, Bill King, Chris Brown, Election 2015, Harris County, Houston, Houston City Controller, precinct analysis, runoff, Sylvester Turner, turnout | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #5 runoff

Posted on December 30, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Our last Council runoff review: Dist Christie Moses ====================== A 8,729 3,657 B 3,273 11,539 C 17,743 8,757 D 5,285 13,847 E 16,652 4,324 F 4,108 2,747 G 23,150 4,954 H 4,230 4,405 I 3,716 3,611 J 3,149 1,985 K … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged At Large #5, Election 2011, Election 2015, Election 2019, Houston, Houston City Council, Jack Christie, precinct analysis, runoff, Sharon Moses | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #4 runoff

Posted on December 21, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Here we have the least competitive runoff of the six that were citywide. Dist Edwards Morales ======================= A 6,322 6,153 B 14,660 1,761 C 17,813 10,238 D 18,341 2,882 E 7,688 13,231 F 4,046 3,080 G 11,996 15,203 H 5,610 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Amanda Edwards, At Large #4, Election 2007, Election 2009, Election 2013, Election 2015, Election 2019, Houston, Houston City Council, Mayor, Melissa Noriega, precinct analysis, Roy Morales, runoff, special election | 2 Comments

Shades of 1997

Posted on December 19, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks to the past to analyze Sylvester Turner’s runoff victory. As the Chronicle reported, voting in the Houston mayor’s runoff fell overwhelmingly along racial lines, with Sylvester Turner edging out a slight victory in part by securing 93 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Election 1997, Election 2001, Election 2015, Houston, Latino voting, Lee Brown, Mayor, Orlando Sanchez, precinct analysis, Rob Mosbacher, runoff, Sylvester Turner, turnout | 1 Comment

Runoff precinct analysis: At Large #2

Posted on December 18, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Now for a race that’s both a little easier and a little harder to understand, in At Large #2: Dist Robinson Davis ====================== A 6,193 5,825 B 7,698 7,508 C 18,432 8,938 D 9,941 9,840 E 8,762 11,677 F 3,557 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged At Large #2, David Robinson, Election 2015, Houston, Houston City Council, precinct analysis, runoff, turnout, Willie Davis | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #1 runoff

Posted on December 17, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s move on to the At Large races. Here’s how the vote went in At Large #1: Dist Knox Provost ===================== A 8,758 4,042 B 2,518 13,058 C 14,925 12,240 D 3,692 16,877 E 16,406 4,735 F 4,040 2,871 G … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged At Large #1, Bill King, Election 2015, Georgia Provost, Houston, Houston City Council, Mayor, Mike Knox, precinct analysis, runoff, Sylvester Turner, turnout | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Mayoral runoff

Posted on December 14, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Believe it or not, the County Clerk’s office put out draft canvass reports last night. As a result, I can do the thing that I do. Here’s a look at the Mayor’s runoff race: Dist King Turner ===================== A 9,491 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Bill King, District C, Election 2001, Election 2011, Election 2015, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Houston, Jack Christie, Jolanda Jones, Lee Brown, Orlando Sanchez, precinct analysis, Sylvester Turner, turnout | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: “Extreme” voters

Posted on December 4, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron’s Mike Morris looks at undervotes in a way that I hadn’t thought of before. On Monday we looked at the phenomenon of the November undervote, when Houstonians made the (relatively rare) commitment to vote, but skipped one or … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Election 2015, Houston, Mayor, precinct analysis, repeal, turnout | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Age ranges

Posted on November 25, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Let us one more time ask the question: Just how old were the voters in our 2015 election? Range All Pct ====================== 18-30 21,998 8.2% 31-40 32,359 12.1% 41-50 39,074 14.6% 51-60 58,610 21.9% 61+ 115,755 43.2% The short answer … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Election 2003, Election 2015, Houston, precinct analysis, term limits, turnout | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Where the voters came from

Posted on November 24, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday we looked at the voting history of the people who participated in the 2015 election. Today we’re going to take a look at how those numbers broke down by Council district. Dist All 3 None Rest Total ==================================== A … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged District C, District D, District E, District F, District G, District H, District I, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Election 2015, Houston, Houston City Council, precinct analysis, turnout | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Old reliables, newcomers, and everyone else

Posted on November 23, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

I have three more views of the 2015 electorate, now that I have a copy of the voter roster. With that, and with the past rosters that I have, I can try to paint a more detailed picture of who … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Election 2003, Election 2005, Election 2007, Election 2009, Election 2010, Election 2011, Election 2012, Election 2013, Election 2015, Harris County, Houston, precinct analysis, turnout | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: The Harris County bonds

Posted on November 22, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Courtesy of Mike Morris at the Chron. It’s an open secret of local politics that, when Harris County needs voter approval for big projects, they turn not to suburban county residents but to those in the city of Houston’s urban … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged bond referendum, bonds, Election 2013, Election 2015, Harris County, Houston, jails, precinct analysis | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: At Large #5

Posted on November 20, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Last but not least, At Large #5: Dist Batteau Christie Nassif Moses ======================================= A 1,034 8,302 1,895 2,876 B 2,784 3,157 2,374 6,849 C 1,782 13,555 10,866 4,592 D 5,108 4,098 3,138 7,231 E 1,247 15,479 2,664 3,355 F 811 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged At Large #5, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Election 2015, endorsements, Georgia Provost, Houston, Houston City Council, Jack Christie, Jolanda Jones, Mayor, Philippe Nassif, precinct analysis, runoff, Sharon Moses | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #4

Posted on November 19, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

At Large #4 features a newcomer and a multi-time candidate in its runoff. Dist Edwards Hansen Blackmon Robinson Thompson Murphy Morales ==================================================================== A 3,707 572 662 2,378 2,565 1,844 2,702 B 10,732 306 1,296 2,109 1,160 327 1,477 C 11,309 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Amanda Edwards, At Large #3, At Large #4, Election 2007, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Election 2015, Evelyn Husband Thompson, Houston, Houston City Council, Jonathan Hansen, Laurie Robinson, Matt Murphy, Mayor, Michael Kubosh, precinct analysis, Roy Morales, runoff | 13 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #3

Posted on November 18, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Only one candidate running for citywide office won outright in November. That candidate was first term CM Michael Kubosh in At Large #3. Here’s how he won: Dist Kubosh LaRue McElligott Peterson ========================================== A 8,782 1,042 835 3,152 B 8,988 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged At Large #3, Clarence Bradford, David Robinson, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2013, Election 2015, Election 2019, Houston, Houston City Council, Jack Christie, Jolanda Jones, Melissa Noriega, Michael Kubosh, precinct analysis, runoff, Sue Lovell, term limits | 8 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #2

Posted on November 17, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

At Large #2 was one of two such races featuring an incumbent that will go to a runoff. Dist Robinson Rivera Dick Davis Burks ============================================== A 3,715 1,679 3,982 3,586 1,281 B 5,283 1,243 1,649 3,405 4,335 C 14,736 2,571 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Andrew Burks, At Large #1, At Large #2, Chris Brown, David Robinson, Election 2013, Election 2015, endorsements, Eric Dick, Georgia Provost, Houston, Houston City Controller, Houston City Council, precinct analysis, runoff, Willie Davis | 6 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #1

Posted on November 16, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

This week I’m going to look at the five At Large Council races, beginning with At Large #1. Before I get into the district breakdown, here’s a number to consider: In Harris County, there were 76,675 undervotes in this race. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged At Large #1, Christopher Oliver, District A, District D, Election 2013, Election 2015, Georgia Provost, Griff Griffin, Houston, Houston City Council, interviews, James Partsch-Galvan, Jenifer Pool, Lane Lewis, Mike Knox, precinct analysis, Tom McCasland | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Districts with runoffs

Posted on November 13, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

District F was a three-way race, with challenger Steve Le leading first-term incumbent Richard Nguyen. Kendall Baker ran as a HERO hater, and finished third overall but did manage to come in first or second in nine precincts. I thought … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Bill King, District F, District H, District J, Dung Le, Election 2015, Houston, Houston City Council, Jason Cisneroz, Jim Bigham, Karla Cisneros, Kendall Baker, Manuel Barrera, Mayor, Mike Laster, precinct analysis, Richard Nguyen, Roland Chavez, runoff, Steve Le, Sylvester Turner | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: Did HERO hurt Juliet Stipeche?

Posted on November 12, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

It’s one theory. In the Houston Independent School District, trustee Juliet Stipeche on Tuesday became the first sitting HISD board member to lose since 1997. At that time, retired educator Larry Marshall defeated Clyde Lemon, a supporter of then-Superintendent Rod … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Diana Davila, Election 2015, gay rights, HISD, HISD Board of Trustees, Houston, Juliet Stipeche, precinct analysis, repeal, transgender rights, turnout | 8 Comments

Precinct analysis: Controller

Posted on November 11, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Moving on to the office that is both second in prominence and last in ballot placement, the City Controller: Dist Khan Brown Frazer Boney Jefferson Robinson ===================================================== A 2,749 3,406 6,588 798 602 1,573 B 1,836 4,042 1,047 4,275 1,057 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Bill Frazer, Bill King, Carroll Robinson, Chris Brown, District C, Dwight Jefferson, Election 2015, Houston, Houston City Controller, Jew Don Boney, MJ Khan, Peter Brown, precinct analysis, Ronald Green, runoff, Sylvester Turner | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: City propositions

Posted on November 10, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Not really much to see here, but here’s what things look like for Prop 1. Dist Yes No Yes% No% ======================================= A 6,271 13,110 32.36% 67.64% B 6,265 14,435 30.27% 69.73% C 26,781 19,544 57.81% 42.19% D 9,871 16,775 37.04% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Election 2015, gay rights, Houston, precinct analysis, repeal, term limits, transgender rights | 7 Comments

Precinct analysis: Mayor’s race

Posted on November 9, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

I now have draft canvasses. You know what that means. All data is for Harris County only. First up, the Mayor’s race: Dist Hall Turner Garcia King Costello Bell =================================================== A 1,906 4,587 3,509 6,265 1,522 1,129 B 2,494 15,947 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Ben Hall, Bill King, Bill White, Chris Bell, Election 2003, Election 2009, Election 2011, Election 2015, Harris County, Hoc Thai Nguyen, Houston, Jack Christie, Jolanda Jones, Latino voting, Marty McVey, Mayor, Orlando Sanchez, precinct analysis, Roy Morales, runoff, Stephen Costello, Sylvester Turner, turnout | 7 Comments

One more analysis of early vote turnout

Posted on November 2, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

From Greg: Sometimes the motivation to drive out one segment of voters to the polls has a disparate impact in an electorate. And sometimes the motivation in one constituency has an echo effect that motivates competing constituencies. A classic example … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2015 | Tagged early voting, Election 2013, Election 2015, Harris County, Houston, precinct analysis, turnout | 17 Comments

Day 8 EV 2015 totals: Breaking it down to districts

Posted on October 27, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Day One of Week Two: Year Early Mail Total Mailed ====================================== 2015 73,903 23,560 97,553 43,279 2013 45,571 16,076 61,647 30,548 The running 2015 totals are here, the full 2013 totals are here, and for completeness the full 2009 totals … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged absentee ballots, District B, District C, District E, early voting, Election 2015, Harris County, Houston, Houston City Council, Mayor, precinct analysis, Sylvester Turner, turnout | Comments Off

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