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January, 2013:

PPP polls Texas

Jan 31st, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
5 comments

I have three things to say about this.

Corndogs make bad news go down easier

Texas voters- even Republicans- have had enough of Rick Perry.

PPP’s newest poll finds that only 31% of voters think Perry should seek reelection next year, compared to 62% who think it’s time for him to step aside. He’s among the most unpopular Governors in the country, with only 41% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapprove.

Perry could face great peril in a primary challenge next year. Only 41% of GOP primary voters want him to be their candidate again, compared to 47% who think it’s time for someone else. And in a head to head match up with Attorney General Greg Abbott, Perry leads by only a 41/38 margin. What makes those numbers particularly worrisome for Perry is that Abbott only has 59% name recognition at this point with primary voters. Among voters who are familiar with Abbott- whether they like him or not- he leads Perry 55/33. That suggests the potential for things to get worse for Perry if Abbott does indeed go forward with a bid.

The Abbott threat to Perry does not represent the typical Tea Party insurgency that has endangered many Republican office holders over the last couple election cycles. GOP voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ want Perry to be their candidate again by a 53/33 margin. But moderates (77/15) and voters identifying as just ‘somewhat conservative’ (49/38) are both ready for a change.

If Abbott ends up being the Republican nominee for Governor next year, the party’s 20 year lock on that office in Texas should be pretty safe. We find him up 7-12 points against all the Democrats we tested- 46/39 over 2010 nominee Bill White, 46/36 over San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, 46/34 over State Senator Wendy Davis, and 47/35 over Houston Mayor Annise Parker. Speaking to the difficulty in breaking through in a state the size of Texas, none of the Democrats are terribly well known- White has 58% name recognition, Castro’s is 53%, Davis’ is 34%, and Parker’s is 33%.

Democrats, however, would have a better than normal chance at winning the Governor’s office if Perry did somehow make it through to be the nominee for another term. We find White actually slightly ahead of him at 47/44. And although Perry leads Castro (47/42), Davis (47/41), and Parker (47/40) the margins are all a good deal narrower than they are for Abbott against the same foes.

The full crosstabs are here, and as always that’s where the real action is. My three points:

1. While a majority of respondents say Perry should not run again, 55% of Republicans polled say he should. That’s the number to look at, and it’s the number Rick Perry will pay attention to. Don’t assume he can’t win another primary.

2. Note that Abbott and Perry both get roughly the same level of support in each featured matchup. In the crosstabs, they each get about the same amount of Republican and Democratic support, with each Democrat getting about the same level of Republican support but slightly softer Democratic support – basically, a few points shift from them to “not sure” against Abbott. I would not make much of that. The difference maker is in Independent/Other support. Every Dem gets at least a plurality of it against Perry, with Bill White getting a majority, but that flips when Abbott is the Republican – he gets a plurality against everyone except White, but White loses five points of Republican support against him. My interpretation of this is that the “Independent/Other” category contains a lot of November Republicans. That suggests to me that the best bet to compete against Abbott, whose numbers are hardly overwhelming, is to tie him as tightly as possible to Perry. There’s no real difference between them on the issues, and he’s been in office forever as well, so this shouldn’t be too hard to do.

3. For all the 2014 candidate speculation so far, I hadn’t given any thought to Bill White. That’s mostly because White hasn’t made any sign of being interested in another shot at the office, as well as the emergence of several alternatives. White did win a lot of Republican votes from Perry in 2010 – I firmly believe that in a 2008 context, White could have won – though how much of that was him and how much of it was Perry is unclear. Still, it’s worth it to ask him about 2014, if only to get his denial on the record so as not to take poll results like this with too much hope.

And from their second day release, another interesting result:

Overall on the issue of guns Texans say they trust the NRA over President Obama by a 47/43 margin.

And despite all of that 49% of Texas voters support an assault weapons ban to just 41% opposed to it. Most Democrats support it, independents favor it by a 53/34 margin, and even among Republicans 23% support it. We’ve found support for the assault weapons ban everywhere we’ve polled it, but it’s particularly striking to see that voters favor it in a pro-gun, anti-Obama state like Texas.

Interesting, no? Ted Cruz recently predicted that the push for an assault weapon ban would hand the Senate to the Republicans next year. Perhaps this is just another issue on which he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

Anyway. That set of results also showed John Cornyn with roughly the same lead over the aforementioned Democrats as Perry and Abbott have, with no indication that he has much to worry about in a primary. Of course, we know how that can go around here. BOR and Texpatriate have more.

Until there’s something to talk about we’ll talk about the talk

Jan 31st, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

I have two things to say about this.

Still not Greg Abbott

Attorney General Greg Abbott doesn’t want to talk about whether he is running for governor, but he is in overdrive on all the issues that make him a leading contender for the Republican nod, even if Gov. Rick Perry runs for re-election.

Abortion? The stalwart abortion opponent appeared with Perry at Saturday’s Rally for Life at the Capitol, proclaiming, “I believe the evidence shows that Texas is the most pro-life state in the United States of America.”

Guns? Abbott got national attention with an Internet ad inviting New Yorkers tired of pesky gun laws to come on down to Texas.

President Barack Obama? Abbott is quick to tout the numerous lawsuits his agency has filed against the federal government over everything from environmental regulation to health care.

Campaign cash? The latest finance reports created a buzz when they showed Abbott sitting on an $18 million war chest, collected over years, to $6 million for Perry, although their fundraising in the past six months was much closer – $4.1 million by Abbott to nearly $3.6 million raised by Perry.

Just curious here, but does Greg Abbott ever talk about a positive vision for Texas, or is it all about the things he stands resolutely against? To borrow from the Slacktivist, I’m sure Abbott has a very firm stance, but what does he want to achieve for Texas? What problems does he see that need solving, and how would he solve them? And is there anything in there that might be remotely appealing to someone who isn’t a very conservative Republican primary voter? Is there any matter of policy at all where he differs from the base? Rick Perry at least had the Texas DREAM Act to point to as his example of independence, though it wasn’t controversial when he signed it in 2001. What, besides “it’s time for a change” and “he wasn’t conservative enough” will Greg Abbott’s main critique of Rick Perry be? Whatever the answers to those questions, it’s not clear to me we’ll hear much about any of that any time soon. Lord knows a contested primary isn’t going to be a battle of ideas.

“Everything is pure speculation until this summer, but I can envision virtually no scenario where Governor Perry and Attorney General Abbott face off against each other,” said lobbyist Ray Sullivan, Perry’s former gubernatorial chief of staff and his former presidential campaign communications director.

Sullivan cited the men’s friendship, similar philosophies and partnership on policy.

Some think Perry will decide not to run; others say that if Perry runs, Abbott will aim instead for lieutenant governor.

“There are a myriad of possibilities,” Sullivan said.

I say there are two possibilities. Either Rick Perry decides it’s time to gracefully retire and hand his throne to someone else – i.e., Greg Abbott – or he decides he isn’t ready to go peacefully into the night and he declares that if anyone wants the keys to the Mansion they will have to take them from him. If it’s the latter, then the question is whether Abbott picks up the gauntlet or not. That’s what it comes down to, and you can interpret remarks like Perry’s statement that Abbott won’t run against him if he runs however you want. Everything else is just details. Scott Braddock has more.

Tell us more about these HCC concerns

Jan 31st, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

The Chron expresses some concerns about recent happenings with the HCC Board of Trustees.

As many longtime Houston residents are well aware, HCC has too frequently been plagued by problems involving the approval of contracts to board members’ supporters and relatives.

Our endorsement of the bond issue was conditioned on the assurance that such problems would not arise as this bond package was being parceled out for needed expansion of facilities. We endorsed the $425 million in large part because we were persuaded that HCC had cleaned up its ethical act.

Under the guidance of then-chairman Richard Schechter, the HCC board two years ago committed to “doing things the right way,” as HCC Board Chairman Bruce Austin wrote in a recent Outlook piece.

We hope so. But based on what we’ve been seeing from the board since the turn of the year, we have some concerns. They include:

1) The decision to return former board member Herlinda Garcia as an interim replacement for outgoing chair Mary Ann Perez, who resigned following her election to the Texas House of Representatives. Out of a presumably large universe of possible replacements, why the choice of Garcia? She returns with baggage from her former service, including well-remembered inflammatory remarks that essentially sabotaged efforts to bring suburban districts into the system. Why her and why now?

2) Why the sudden resignation of Schechter? It was under the Houston attorney’s strong and progressive leadership as board chair that much-needed reforms were initially negotiated and put in place. Why is Schechter leaving so quickly after re-election? Does his leaving signify a shift in power on the board that might lead some members to believe they can move away from commitments to transparency and arm’s length, especially in the area of assigning contracts?

We hope not. But already, we are hearing word of board members with agendas focused on jobs and contracts for favored groups.

These are valid concerns, but I have to say, I’d take them more seriously if the Chron took HCC more seriously to begin with. For instance, the first place that I heard about Herlinda Garcia’s appointment to replace Rep. Mary Ann Perez was this HCC press release, which I came across while researching my first look at the 2013 elections post. I had started to write that I had no idea how the HCC Board of Trustees went about filling an unexpected vacancy, and decided to Google around rather than publicly admit my ignorance, and in doing so I found that story. The Chron had no news of this until nearly a week later when they wrote about Schechter’s resignation, mentioning the Garcia appointment in passing. As for Garcia’s baggage, that’s the first I’ve heard of it. Neither a Google search nor a Chronicle archive search yielded anything relevant; this 2003 story about the election Garcia ultimately lost to Diane Olmos Guzman didn’t mention anything specific. Those “inflammatory remarks” may be well-remembered, but they’re sure not well known or well publicized. How about a profile of the new trustee so you can inform the rest of us about this baggage, Chron editorial board?

As for Schechter’s resignation, once again it would be nice if the Chron did more to investigate their concerns rather than merely editorialize about them. I will also note that the HCC Board is soliciting applications from qualified members of the public to be considered for an appointment to fill Schechter’s position. But don’t get your hopes up about this – the application deadline was Monday, and the Board intends to pick the lucky winner at today’s Board meeting. We’ll see how long it takes the Chron to write about that.

Texas blog roundup for the week of January 28

Jan 31st, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

The Texas Progressive Alliance is ready for a ruling in the school finance lawsuit as it brings you this week’s roundup.

(more…)

How about Ellis 2014?

Jan 30th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
5 comments

Michael Hurta makes an observation.

The only Democratic legislator in Texas who is not up for reelection in 2014 yet also has seven figures in his campaign bank account is Rodney Ellis. Will we hear any Ellis for Governor rumors before session is done?

Sen. Rodney Ellis

You can see a copy of Sen. Ellis’ January report here. He has just over $2 million cash on hand, which isn’t exactly Greg Abbott territory but isn’t a bad place to start off, either. He has been in the Senate since winning a special election in 1990, but at least since I’ve been paying attention I can’t recall hearing any talk about him eyeing a run for something else. One opportunity he declined to take to move up was in 2004, when the DeLay re-redistricting effort transformed Chris Bell’s CD25 into the African-American majority CD09. Ellis was not up for election in 2004 but did not challenge the first-term Congressman Bell, who was ultimately defeated in the primary by now-Rep. Al Green, who had been a Justice of the Peace until then.

That may just mean he isn’t interested in a federal office. If so, 2014 is an opportunity for him since he would have had to give up his Senate seat to run in any of the three previous state election years. Personally, I have no idea if Sen. Ellis has even given this matter a moment’s thought, but hey, I can pass along out of the blue speculation as well as the next blogger, so there you go. As of now, Julian Castro has declared his non-candidacy for 2014, Sen. Wendy Davis is playing it coy, Henry Cisneros is almost certainly a figment of my imagination, and I have no idea if anyone has talked to Cecile Richards lately. May as well keep talking about possibilities till one of them becomes real. What do you think about this?

The 311 app is here

Jan 30th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

I’ve been waiting for this.

The brand-new Houston 311 app will allow residents to file a complaint and then track its progress. The program officially goes live Tuesday, city officials said.

Here’s how the 311 app works, city spokesman Chris Newport said:

“Say you see a pothole on your street. Before you even leave for work you can walk over, launch the app and type in ‘pothole,’ ” he said. “You have the option of taking a picture, punching in the address and answering two other questions before you hit send.”

The “really cool thing” about the new app, Newport said, is that the requests aren’t sent to a generic email inbox at the city. Instead, the SmartPhone application “creates a work order that our public works department adds to their list of things to do.”

Houston city officials last August updated the 311 non-emergency website, allowing residents to report a variety of complaints on everything from garbage pickup problems to traffic signal maintenance to water line breaks. The city’s hotline last year also expanded to 24-hour-a-day, seven-days-a-week service. As of Jan. 13, it received an average of 5,311 calls a day for service, Newport said.

“This is just the beginning,” Newport said of the expanded options. “We’re not just launching this app and we’re done,” he said. The city plans to update on a regular basis.

Here’s a presentation that shows how to use the app to submit a report. The revamped 311 homepage, which also goes by the Houston311.org URL, has all the information you need to get the app, which is available for iPhone and Android. I’ve downloaded it onto my phone and will be on the lookout for a chance to use it. More functions are planned for the future, so keep an eye out. Harris County released a similar app in August, so it’s great to see the city follow suit. For more information, see this media guide and the Mayor’s press release.

Yet another report saying we should expand Medicaid in Texas

Jan 30th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
8 comments

It’s the fiscally responsible thing to do, in addition to being the morally correct thing to do.

It’s constitutional – deal with it

Expanding Medicaid is a “smart, affordable and fair” decision for Texas, according to a report issued by Billy Hamilton, a non-partisan consultant commissioned by Methodist Healthcare Ministries of South Texas and Texas Impact, a statewide interfaith network.

“If politics are set aside, the right decision is obvious,” wrote Hamilton, a former deputy comptroller of public accounts who was once the state’s chief revenue estimator. He argued that for an investment of $15 billion, Texas could draw down $100 billion in federal funds and expand health care coverage to 2 million low-income Texans over 10 years.

One of the most important decisions facing Texas lawmakers in the 83rd legislative session is whether to expand Medicaid to low-income adults, as directed by the federal Affordable Care Act. Despite proclamations from Texas’ Republican leadership — namely Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst — that Texas will not expand Medicaid, local government officials and health care providers across the state are pushing lawmakers to realize the benefits of it.

Hamilton’s report, the most thorough fiscal analysis yet on the impact of the Medicaid expansion on Texas, argues that state spending on the expanded Medicaid program would be offset by dramatic savings and that thousands of jobs would be created to boost the economy. Hamilton also says Texas’ uninsured rate — the highest in the nation — would drop by a quarter. He argues the expansion could save the lives of 5,700 adults and 2,900 children annually.

Hamilton was the chief number-cruncher for former Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn. He joins economist Ray Perryman in pointing out the obvious, for whatever good it will do. Here’s more on his report from Texas Impact, who co-commissioned it.

The report provides funding estimates and Medicaid enrollment scenarios that rely on population and caseload projections by former Texas State Demographer Steve Murdock, and cost estimates from the Texas Health and Human Services Commission. The report provides three scenarios-“limited” (based on minimal enrollment), “moderate,” and “enhanced” (based on extremely high enrollment levels). All major findings are based on the “moderate” scenario.

The report compares these funding estimates with spending data from local jurisdictions and charity cost data from mandated, uniform hospital reports. The report explains the interactions between existing low-income health spending at the local level, and state and local fiscal impacts of extending Medicaid under the ACA. Impacts include anticipated increased enrollment by children who are currently eligible for Medicaid or CHIP but not enrolled, and who likely would enroll along with their newly eligible parents. The report also uses econometric modeling to estimate employment and economic impacts of adding low-income adults to Medicaid.

The report includes regional breakouts of caseload, spending and fiscal impacts for each of the state’s 20 Regional Health Partnerships (RHPs). The RHPs are multi-county regions coordinating health care spending and delivery under Texas’ new federal Medicaid Transformation waiver.

Key Findings:

  • The state match required for the Medicaid expansion could be met many times over with funds the state, local jurisdictions and hospitals already spend on health care for low-income adults.
  • The $1.8 billion in new state revenue generated by the expansion could offset about half of the state match required from 2014 through 2017.
  • The economic activity from the infusion of federal funds would boost Texas economic output by $67.9 billion, and add $2.5 billion to local revenues during fiscal 2014-17.
  • The economic activity would generate an estimated 231,000 jobs by 2016.
  • Every region and every county in the state would benefit from the additional federal funds.
  • The new coverage would reduce Texas’ uninsured rate by about 25 percent, insuring up to 2 million people.
  • The new coverage would increase efficiency in state and local health programs by moving currently uninsured adults to managed care.
  • The new coverage would save the lives of an estimated 5,700 adults and 2,700 children every year.
  • Other states are also finding that current spending and new revenue would cover their state match requirements and provide savings.
  • Failing to extend Medicaid would not improve the state’s likelihood of getting a block grant and would likely decrease the amount of funding the state would receive if a block grant were ever to occur.
  • Due to provisions in the ACA, failing to extend Medicaid would leave low-income Texas adults with no access to subsidized insurance and no alternative but to use expensive emergency room treatment for routine care.
  • (Key Findings also available in PDF format)

Overall State Fiscal Impact

For the 2014-15 biennium, Texas would receive $7.7 billion in federal funds for adults and $1.4 billion for children for a state match of $297 million for adults and $889 million for children–a total of $9.1 billion in federal funds for $1.2 billion in state match. For the 2016-17 biennium, Texas would receive $15.2 billion in federal funds for adults and $3.1 billion for children for a state match of $989 million for adults and $1.6 billion for children–a total of $18.3 billion in federal funds for $2.6 billion in state match.

The full report is here, and the executive summary is here. Expanding Medicaid is fiscally smart and will save thousands of lives. Millions of people lack access to health care in Texas. Medicaid expansion, especially in conjunction with comprehensive immigration reform, could do a lot to solve that problem. There’s no good argument against it – it’s all political. If there really is a deal to make it happen, we need to do it. But as long as Rick Perry, or someone like him, is Governor, I don’t see how it does happen. Nothing will change in this state until the government changes.

How would you pay for extra school security?

Jan 30th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Would you be willing to tax yourself for it?

Texas school districts could create special taxing districts to fund more security under a proposal unveiled Tuesday by three Houston-area lawmakers.

The Texas School District Security Act would allow school boards to hold elections on whether sales or property taxes should be raised to fund more security at public schools.

“I believe this proposal is a Texas solution that will save lives without sacrificing our freedoms,” said state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, who, with Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, and State Rep. Dan Huberty, R-Humble, is developing the measure.

The three say they still are drafting the bill, but they outlined a few details at a news conference.

Sens. Williams and Whitmire submitted this op-ed that ran in Sunday’s Chron that gave details of the proposal:

Modeled after current law, which allows municipalities to vote to adopt crime control districts, the legislation would do the following:

Allow individual school districts to vote on dedicated funding for enhanced school security measures.

Allow for a dedicated sales tax (if available under the state cap), or a dedicated property tax specifically for enhanced security based on local school district voters. The revenue generated from a local option School District Security Fund would be separate from all other district funding.

Provide transparency and accountability by requiring school districts to hold public hearings on what is to be included in the Texas School District Security Act. Costs will be spelled out and voters will know the estimated amount of the dedicated property or sales tax to cover those costs before holding an election on the issue. The proposal would include a tax cap.

Require a review and renewal election of the Texas School District Security Act every five years.

A repeal petition would allow a community to abolish the Texas School District Security Act before the next renewal election.

The elected and accountable local school board also would serve as the board of the Texas School District Security Act.

On the one hand, if this is what a community wants to do, I don’t see why they shouldn’t be allowed to do it. I can’t imagine voting for such a thing, but I don’t particularly care if some other school district wants to tax itself for this purpose. I think it’s a dumb idea, but I don’t care to stand in their way of adopting it. On the other hand, there may be legal issues with the idea.

If voters approve special taxing districts to fund more school security in Texas, smaller, property-poor districts could wind up relying more on cheaper webcams and less on police officers.

According to the Equity Center, a group that represents underfunded school districts in Texas, the disparity in school funding – the subject of a lawsuit in Austin – again could play out when it comes to capturing more funds for school security by raising local sales or property taxes.

While three Houston-area lawmakers hammer out the details for such a funding option, the Equity Center took a look at how much security a one-cent property tax hike, hypothetically, could raise for a district.

The results were not surprising. Based on the Equity Center’s analysis of 2013 property tax values, Houston ISD could raise $9.5 million; Fort Bend ISD, about $2.35 million; and San Antonio ISD, $1.17 million.

Not too many police officers can be had for that.

“The wealthier will be able to afford better security,” said Ray Freeman, executive deputy director of the Equity Center.

Raise your hand if any of this surprises you. Perhaps the wealthier districts or schools could get around the inequity issue by raising the money via bake sales and whatnot. But really, if this is something worth having, then it’s something everyone should be able to have, and the way to provide that is for the state to do so. But is this something worth having?

Even wealthier districts may have a tough time selling a tax hike to voters already weary of hearing about half-cent or penny tax hikes every time a new need arises.

“It may be a separate taxing district, but it’s money that comes out of the same (voters’) pocket,” said Clay Robison, spokesman for the Texas State Teachers Association.

Robison likes that lawmakers are looking at something other than arming teachers. The bottom line for his group, however, is the belief that the state is “not paying its fair share” for education. “The state is still passing much of the cost to the local districts,” he said.

In addition to the TSTA, the usual suspects among the right-wing policy enforcers oppose the plan on the grounds that it allows for the possibility of one of them being taxed for something. That may make passing this bill, whenever it gets filed, more of a challenge. But seriously, surely there are better things to spend our money on, aren’t there?

January finance reports for area legislative offices

Jan 29th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Just to complete the tour of semiannual finance reports, here’s a look at the cash on hand totals for area legislators. First up, the Harris County House delegation.

Patricia Harless, HD126 – $308,221

Dan Huberty, HD127 – $69,058

Wayne Smith, HD128 – $218,425

John Davis, HD129 – $99,962

Allen Fletcher, HD130 – $46,559

Alma Allen, HD131 – $33,479

Bill Callegari, HD132 – $315,904

Jim Murphy, HD133 – $103,538

Sarah Davis, HD134 – $59,871

Gary Elkins, HD135 – $337,111

Gene Wu, HD137 – $32,504

Dwayne Bohac, HD138 – $28,286

Sylvester Turner, HD139 – $404,829

Armando Walle, HD140 – $72,571

Senfronia Thompson, HD141 – $345,547

Harold Dutton, HD142 – $85,127

Ana Hernandez Luna, HD143 – $111,652

Mary Ann Perez, HD144 – $118,832

Borris Miles, HD146 – $54,485

Garnet Coleman, HD147 – $173,683

Jessica Farrar, HD148 – $65,005

Hubert Vo, HD149 – $52,341

Debbie Riddle, HD150 – $67,757

I skipped Carol Alvarado in HD145 since we already know about her. Sarah Davis just finished running an expensive race – she got a much tougher challenge for her first re-election than either of her two most recent predecessors, so she didn’t get to build a cushion. I’m sure she’s start rattling the cup as soon as session is over and the moratorium is lifted. Borris Miles and Huber Vo do a fair amount of self-funding. Gary Elkins and Bill Callegari are in the two Republican held seats that were more Democratic in 2012 than their 2008 numbers suggested. Beyond that, nothing really remarkable. Here’s a look at the representatives from neighboring counties:

Cecil Bell, HD03 – $27,712

Steven Toth, HD15 – $25,832

Brandon Creighton, HD16 – $360,842

John Otto, HD18 – $480,066

Craig Eiland, HD23 – $92,623

Greg Bonnen, HD24 – $47,123

Dennis Bonnen, HD25 – $370,909

Rick Miller, HD26 – $30,561

Ron Reynolds, HD27 – $6,654

John Zerwas, HD28 – $470,622

Phil Stephenson, HD85 – $14,209

Ed Thompson, HD29 – $92,008

Bell, Toth, and Creighton represent Montgomery County – Bell in part, Toth and Creighton in full. Bell’s district also covers Waller County. Eiland is parts of Galveston and all of Chambers, while Greg Bonnen has the rest of Galveston. Eiland has two reports, both of which are linked with the sum of the two as his cash total. Dennis Bonnen and Ed Thompson share Brazoria County. Miller, Reynolds, and Zerwas are in Fort Bend, along with a chunk of Stephenson’s district. John Otto represents Liberty County, among others. Bell, Thompson, and Greg Bonnen are all ParentPAC candidates. Until such time as Democrats are in a position to retake, or at least come close to retaking, a majority in the Lege, sanity on public education is going to depend in no small part on people like them. I truly hope they’re up to that, because the ones that were there in 2011 sure weren’t. Of course, the more reasonable they are the more likely they’ll get teabagged by doofus chuckleheads like Steve Toth, who took out the unquestionably conservative but generally fact-based Rob Eissler last year. Not that Eissler distinguished himself last session, but still. You can perhaps see some higher ambitions in Creighton and Zerwas’ numbers – I have a feeling Zerwas will be very interested in Glenn Hegar’s Senate seat if Hegar makes a statewide run as some people think he will. I wouldn’t be surprised if Creighton has his eyes on CD08 someday.

And finally, the Senate:

Tommy Williams, SD04 – $1,164,109

Dan Patrick, SD07 – $1,485,091

Larry Taylor, SD11 – $183,826

Rodney Ellis, SD13 – $2,016,660

John Whitmire, SD15 – $6,167,111

Joan Huffman, SD17 – $707,914

Glenn Hegar, SD18 – $1,617,306

Hegar drew a four year term and can thus scratch his statewide itch without giving up his Senate seat. Dan Patrick was not so lucky, poor thing. As for Whitmire, all I can say is “wow”. As much cash on hand as Rick Perry, and no reason to believe any of it will be used for a significant purpose any time soon. I don’t even know what to say.

What we need is better choice

Jan 29th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
4 comments

With all the talk about “school choice” floating around, it’s important to remember that in Houston at least we already have a lot of options from which to choose.

Houston’s urban school leaders vowed Wednesday to continue efforts to expand quality school choices, despite financial and regulatory challenges.

Top charters schools – including KIPP and YES Prep – receive less state funding than their traditional counterparts, and Houston ISD is sometimes handcuffed by state regulations, according to speakers at the seventh annual Children at Risk Children’s Summit.

Regardless of the challenges, Houston parents are hungry for quality choices, leaders said.

“It’s like Jerry Maguire. You have them at hello,” said KIPP co-founder Mike Feinberg, who went door-to-door to recruit families for his new campuses in the late 1990s.

Today, more than 36,000 Houston students are on waiting lists for top charter schools. And about 68,000 students transfer from their zoned HISD school to another campus, under the district’s school choice model that includes dozens of popular magnet schools. Another 10,000 students transfer to HISD schools from outside the district.

“We’re a pretty good choice option,” Superintendent Terry Grier said.

Both Grier and charter school leaders agreed that educating the overwhelmingly low-income, minority populations that they serve takes extra time, effort and money.

We all know about the money part of that equation, so I won’t belabor it here. To the extent that Sen. Dan Patrick is talking about letting other school districts have the kind of choice model that HISD has, I’m all fine with it. I don’t know how much of a panacea that will be in less populated areas, and let’s not kid ourselves about the increased costs associated with sending kids off to non-neighborhood schools, but as a matter of principle there’s no good reason why parents and kids shouldn’t have as many viable options open to them as possible.

But as we know, this is just a side dish, with vouchers as the entree. Again, I’m not going to belabor that here, but instead want to talk a bit more about charter schools.

Charter school leaders said they will continue to look for ways to expand, which is challenging without the ability to ask for school bonds like the $1.9 billion one that HISD voters passed in November. They launched a partnership with the neighboring Spring Branch ISD last year to operate schools inside existing campuses, further lowering costs.

“We’re not going to build a $25 million building when we can get great results with less than that,” said Jason Bernal, YES Prep Public Schools president.

[…]

“High-performing charters like YES Prep and KIPP are scalable,” Bernal said. “It just validates we can continue doing what we’re doing.”

I hope he’s right about that, because we’d all benefit if schools like YES and KIPP can extend their reach. As the chart above shows, there’s probably only so far that they can be extended. It’s important to remember, however, that most charter schools aren’t KIPP or YES. In fact, the percentage of charter schools rated Academically Unacceptable by the Texas Education Agency is nearly double that of traditional public schools, and it’s very difficult to shut down a failing charter school. Somehow, that sort of thing never seems to be part of the discussion. If we’re going to expand access to charter schools by raising the state limit on charters, then we need to increase oversight and accountability on charter schools as well. I got a press release from Texans Deserve Great Schools, which is funded in part by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, whose report on school funding was the basis of this Chron story, that includes policy recommendations to address charter school oversight. I’m not sure I agree with everything they say – in particular, I remain skeptical of the cult of online learning and the belief that technology will solve all our problems; again, this is a separate issue – but aside from that they do make a number of good suggestions. You can read their release here and see for yourself. For extra credit, read the issue briefs and policy papers from Raise Your Hand Texas. There’s no shortage of education policy and reform out there. As with charter schools, the goal is to get as much of the good and as little of the bad as possible.

Zack Kopplin

Jan 29th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Remember the name Zack Kopplin.

Zack Kopplin

Rice University sophomore Zack Kopplin says he has been called the Antichrist, a godless liberal and, bizarrely, the cause of Hurricane Katrina.

Kopplin, 19, has gained notoriety for championing the fight against his home state of Louisiana’s 2008 law that made it easier for teachers to introduce creationist textbooks into classrooms.

“It’s incredible that a young man is prepared to stand up for the truth,” said Sir Harold Walter Kroto, a British chemist who shared the 1996 Nobel Prize in chemistry and is a professor at Florida State University. He helped Kopplin connect with the 78 Nobel laureates who backed an unsuccessful attempt to repeal the law in 2011.

At a time when conventional wisdom has it that teenagers are disinterested in public policy, Kopplin is anything but apathetic and seems to relish a fight. The student activist has faced off against Louisiana state lawmakers and Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum, and has appeared on national news networks leading the charge against the of use religion in public school classrooms.

“Science has nothing to do with religion; they operate on different planes,” contended Kopplin.

Now Kopplin, a history major who is taking a full course load this semester, is preparing to fight state Sen. Dan Patrick’s effort to allow school vouchers in Texas. Patrick, R-Houston, is a strong supporter of school vouchers, which would allow tax money to flow to private and religious schools.

IO9 had a nice feature story on Kopplin and his fight against creationism in Louisiana a little while ago that you ought to read as well. He also has a blog that exhaustively documents creationist voucher schools around the country. This is why public funds should be for public schools and private schools should pay for themselves. He’s got his work cut out for him, but speaking as someone who wasn’t doing anything nearly that productive as a college sophomore, I’m deeply impressed with what he’s done already. Give ’em hell, Zack.

Another setback for open beaches

Jan 29th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

At this rate, the concept of “open beaches” is on its way to becoming an anachronism.

The Texas Supreme Court dealt another blow Friday to the Texas Open Beaches Act in a case pitting beachfront property owners against the city of Surfside.

The court overturned an appeals court ruling upholding Surfside’s refusal to permit repairs or extend utilities to houses that the Texas General Land Office determined were in the public right-of-way as a result of beach erosion. It asked the lower court to reconsider its decision in light of the state Supreme Court ruling last year in the Severance case, which weakened the Open Beaches Act.

Angela Brannan and 12 other beachfront home-owners had argued that efforts to force them to remove their houses from the public right-of-way amounted to an unconstitutional taking of their property.

Voting to overturn the appeals court decision siding with the city were justices Nathan L. Hecht, Paul W. Green, Phil Johnson, Don R. Willett, Eva Guzman and John Phillip Devine. Not participating were justices Debra Lehr-mann, Jeffrey S. Boyd and Chief Justice Wallace B. Jefferson.

One bad ruling leads to another. Where will it end?

January finance reports for Harris County offices

Jan 28th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

For the most part, it’s way too early to start thinking about the 2014 Harris County elections – we have a legislative session and a city election cycle to get through first – but since January 15 is a reporting deadline for county officeholders, I figure I may as well have a peek at who has what. I’m only looking at offices that are up for election in 2014, so here we go.

County Judge Ed Emmett – $151,586 on hand.

Thanks to his graceful under pressure performance during Hurricane Ike and a generally low-key, get-things-done style, County Judge Ed Emmett has been the top-performing Republican candidate in two diametrically opposite elections, the Democratic wave of 2008 and the Republican tsunami of 2014. Assuming there are no similar forces at work next year, Democrats ought to be in pretty good shape countywide – as I’ve noted before, Democratic turnout was pretty decent in 2010 despite the butt-kicking – but if there’s one person I’d expect to prevail on the R side even if there’s a strong wind behind the Dems’ backs, it’s Judge Emmett. Assuming of course that he hasn’t decided by then that he’s had it up to here with all this stuff and makes a beeline for the private sector, in which case I’d expect a jumble of Dems lining up to run for this spot. I’m sure someone will run regardless, but barring anything unforeseen I’d make Judge Emmett the favorite going in.

County Clerk Stan Stanart – $16,869 on hand

Outside of the big three – County Judge, District Attorney, and Sheriff – countywide offices don’t draw much fundraising attention, so don’t read much into these numbers. That said, 2012 wasn’t exactly a stellar year for Stan Stanart. I don’t know how much people will remember that by next year, but as with Don Sumners it ought to provide his opponent (or opponents if he gets primaried) with a fair amount of ammunition. Talk of an elections administrator has predictably died down again, but if it pops back up that will just remind everyone of why we began speaking of it in the first place. Stanart has overseen the relocation of voting machines to a new home, and the county campaign finance reform page sucks somewhat less than it used to, but beyond that I can’t think of any major achievements he’s racked up. (If I’m wrong about that, please correct me in the comments.) Assuming we don’t have an elections administrator by this time next year, I expect Dems to make this race a priority.

District Clerk Chris Daniel – $15,184 on hand

Unlike Stanart, Daniel has had a fairly quiet term as District Clerk. There was a fair amount of griping after Daniel defeated the well-regarded Loren Jackson in the 2010 sweep – Jackson was easily the top Democratic vote-getter that year – but for what it’s worth I haven’t heard any lately. Daniel has overseen the implementation of a new efiling system for pleadings in criminal cases, FREEfax, so he will have that to point to next year. If Daniel loses in 2014, his successor will be the fifth District Clerk since 2007, when then-District Clerk Charles Bacarisse resigned to challenge Ed Emmett in a primary for County Judge. Theresa Chang, now a County Court judge, was appointed to replace Bacarisse; she was defeated by Jackson in 2008, and Jackson was defeated by Daniel in 2010.

County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez – $1,141 on hand.

2014 will be another quadrennial opportunity to wonder just what the heck any Treasurer does in Harris County, and in particular just what it is that Orlando Sanchez, who was first elected in 2006, does. All I can tell you is that he has a delightfully minimalist webpage, and that this finance report does not include an expenditure on “Glamour” magazine.

County Commissioner Jack Cagle – $99,990 on hand.

Cagle was appointed in October of 2011 to replace the felonious Jerry Eversole in Precinct 4. He easily won a three-way primary and the ensuing November election to complete Eversole’s unexpired term; this will be his first election for a full four-year term. I expect he’ll build his campaign treasury up considerably over the next year or so, but it almost doesn’t matter. Barring any Eversole-like behavior on his part, Cagle ought to be able to keep this job for the foreseeable future. Demographic change will eventually make Precinct 4 more competitive in general elections, but there’s at least one more redistricting cycle in between now and that point. He’s in for the long haul.

County Commissioner Jack Morman – $410,078 on hand.

This is, or at least it should be, the main event in Harris County in 2014. Morman’s win in 2010 was fueled mostly by the Republican wave of that year, but as currently drawn, Precinct 2 is highly competitive, with a slight lean towards the GOP. We are still awaiting a ruling in the federal lawsuit over the County’s redistricting plan. A full range of outcomes – a bit more Republican, a bit less Republican, exactly as it is under the interim map that was used last year – is possible for Precinct 2. The first question is who might run against Morman. To some extent, that may be determined by the result in the SD06 special election. Council Member James Rodriguez, whose is term-limited, is known to be interested in HD145 in the event Rep. Carol Alvarado wins a promotion to the Senate, but he has also expressed an interest in Precinct 2. I am certain he will not be the only person looking at this, and I for one will be a bit surprised if there isn’t a spirited Democratic primary for the right to oppose Morman. Demography, the lawsuit, Democratic GOTV efforts, the number of first-time off-year Republican voters from 2010 who decide to make it a habit, and of course the candidates themselves will be among the factors in determining the winner here. Buckle your seatbelts.

HCDE Trustee Jim Henley – No report, since he has not had a campaign fund since 2008 and thus is not required to file these reports
HCDE Trustee Debby Kerner – $774 on hand.

Going into the 2008 election, Republicans held all seven seats on the Harris County Department of Education Board of Trustees. Henley and Kerner’s 2008 wins in At Large seats, coupled with Diane Trautman’s At Large win and Erica Lee’s Precinct 1 win in 2012, transformed the Board into a 4-3 Democratic majority. If nothing else, that should tamp down on any talk about abolishing the agency, as that was something defeated member Michael Wolfe had pushed. HCDE Trustee is a fairly obscure office, with few resources available for candidates, so as with judicial and other low-profile races they are largely determined by partisan preferences. Henley and Kerner’s overperformance in 2008 – both got 52% of the vote – serves as a reminder that downballot dropoff isn’t always uniform. Still, they’ll rise or fall along with the Democratic Party.

Besides Henley and Kerner, there is exactly one more Democratic incumbent slated for the 2014 ballot: First Court of Appeals Judge Jim Sharp, who carried Harris County by a sufficient margin to win a seat on that bench in 2014. Since then, he has drawn attention to himself in a number of non–positive ways, and as such it would not shock me if he were to face a primary challenge. Beyond that, it’s all Republican judges, and the slate is bigger in non-Presidential years than it is in Presidential years. If Democrats manage to sweep or nearly sweep these races, I can only imagine how loud the call will be in certain quarters to change the way judges are selected; if Republicans mostly or entirely hold on, I figure the subject will be dormant until after the 2016 election. As has been the case since 2008, I’ll be keeping an eye on the Appeals Court races. If Democrats can ever get a foothold on the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals, they’ll be in much better shape to find candidates for the statewide bench in the future.

Is there a way forward on expanding Medicaid in Texas?

Jan 28th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

It’s a little hard to know what to make of this.

It’s constitutional – deal with it

The Affordable Care Act is the federal law that Texas Republicans love to hate, but one top lawmaker says expanding health care for the working poor could happen if federal authorities are willing to strike a deal.

Republican Sen. Jane Nelson, chair of the Health and Human Services Committee, said she hopes the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will allow Texas to receive $27 billion to expand Medicaid. But she said the key is to allow lawmakers to develop a Texas-specific program that will not blow the state’s budget.

“I am still open to anything that will allow us to have the flexibility that we need, and that will also give us the assurance that it’s not going to put us deeper in debt,” Nelson told The Associated Press in an interview.

[…]

Gov. Rick Perry has rejected the Affordable Care Act as an affront on state’s rights and said he wants the federal money with no strings attached in a block grant. The Perryman Group, an independent economic consulting company, estimated that Texas will miss out on $90 billion in increased economic activity and leave at least 1.5 million people uninsured if it does not expand Medicaid.

Nelson said a block grant was not the only way to reach a deal. She said a waiver that would allow the state to develop a tailor-made program within certain federal boundaries might be enough.

[…]

Nelson is among those who want to require some recipients to contribute toward their health care costs — such as paying income-based premiums or co-payments — something federal authorities have until now have rejected under Medicaid. She said Medicaid can also be made more efficient.

Last week Nelson announced legislation intended to make it easier to identify and punish those who defraud the program.

“We’ve got to address these root problems before I will support expanding it,” Nelson said.

Nelson identified Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, as a key player in working toward a deal with federal officials. Coleman has said he supports a limited requirement for some Medicaid patients to pay part of their health care costs, adding that he believes a deal is possible. Health and Human Services Commissioner Kyle Janek has said his staff is working with federal authorities to see what’s possible.

I don’t know where that $27 billion figure cited by Sen. Nelson comes from. The number usually thrown around is $100 billion in federal funds for the first decade of expansion. If I had to guess, I’d say the $27 billion is for the first two or three years when the feds are picking up all of the tab; it goes down to 90% reimbursement after that. It would have been nice for the story to be more clear on that. As for the Perryman study, see here for the background.

Beyond that, it’s not clear what kind of plan Nelson has in mind. This is the first I’ve heard of this, and there’s no detail in the story to indicate what Nelson’s basic idea is. It’s true that the Obama administration has been flexible in working with the states on matters relating to the Affordable Care Act, but such flexibility only goes so far. What is the state willing to do to be in compliance with the law? If Rep. Coleman really is on board with this, then I have some optimism that a deal can be made, but let’s get some information first. And unless part of the plan is to get Rick Perry’s assurance that he won’t veto whatever bill gets passed, it’s all a waste of time.

Trace cases to be prosecuted as felonies again

Jan 28th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
3 comments

So says our new DA.

DA Mike Anderson

Newly elected Harris County District Attorney Mike Anderson said Thursday he will prosecute as felonies drug cases that involve trace amounts of crack cocaine, reversing his predecessor’s stand on the so-called “trace cases.”

“If there is enough evidence to test in a lab, then we’ll take the charges,” Anderson said.

Anderson campaigned on the issue last year after then District Attorney Pat Lykos implemented a policy that treated cases with drug residue of less than 1/100th of a gram as a misdemeanor.

Lykos said her policy ensured that crimes prosecuted as state jail felonies had enough of the illegal drug so an independent lab could test it on behalf of the defendant.

She said it was more fair and noted that it reduced the population in the county’s overcrowded jail system.

[…]

The change was applauded by law enforcement and criticized by one court official on Thursday.

“They are felons, the state has said they are felons and they need to be prosecuted as such,” said Ray Hunt, president of the Houston Police Officers’ Union. “These persons, these crackheads are the people who are breaking in to motor vehicles to steal your laptop off the front seat, to grab the purse that’s visible, all those things they can sell for $25 to go buy another crack rock.”

He noted that state law is clear and said Lykos ignored it with her policy.

“If the legislators want to make this not a felony, then they can,” Hunt said. “But to say this is a felony and then have a district attorney say they’re not going to enforce state law is not the way elected officials are supposed to act.”

Harris County’s most senior criminal felony judge, Michael McSpadden, disagreed with Anderson’s change.

“I wish he would use his discretion to relieve the great number of cases that I don’t think are proper in felony court,” McSpadden said. “But I understand that the correct way is to address the Legislature.”

As the story notes, Anderson did make an issue of this, so having duly won the nomination and general election we should not be surprised that he is proceeding to do what he said he would do. It would have been nice to have had a debate about this for the general election, but after we Democrats Olivered ourselves, that wasn’t in the cards. Anderson says later in the story that he hopes many of these cases will be resolved by probation, so as not to overcrowd the jails. I hope so, too.

As you know, I agreed with Lykos’ policy on trace cases. You do get into some dicey issues when law enforcement officials start talking about what laws they will and will not enforce – witness all the idiot Sheriffs out there now saying they won’t enforce any new gun laws that they have decided are unconstitutional, because it’s in the Constitution that local law enforcement officials get to make that determination – but DAs do routinely exercise their discretion about what cases to pursue and what cases to move down the priority list. It is true that this is a job for the Legislature to fix, but until they get their act together – and in a 140-day session, they too have to prioritize – there’s a lot of people being needlessly jailed, labeled as felons, and not getting the help they need. This does not serve the public interest, and it puts DAs in this position. I thought Lykos took the right approach, but the point is that she shouldn’t have had to make that decision.

Are you ready for the hipness?

Jan 28th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Because ready or not, here it comes.

Hipper than I am, not that this is difficult

A rapper, a ballerina and a host of top chefs are among the locals who will be featured in a new Houston image campaign launching next month.

The $425,000 promotional blitz targeting readers of the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and even Cooking Light magazine will feature a number of other artists and performers to capitalize on Houston’s growing reputation as a regional culinary and cultural arts capital, city boosters say.

The “Houston Is” campaign will feature such notables as the rap star Bun B, the Houston Ballet’s Nao Kusuzaki and graffiti artist Gonzo247 in the largest effort of its kind in the city’s history in terms of its national reach, said Holly Clapham, vice president of marketing at the Greater Houston Convention & Visitors Bureau, the group behind the effort.

The decision to emphasize dining and cultural arts was based on a 2012 study done by global travel research firm TNS, which found that among the cities with which Houston competes most directly for visitors – Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin and New Orleans – Houston ranks No. 1 in the categories of “variety of dining options” and “cultural/performing arts.”

The print ads feature 32 Houstonians, most of whom are in the restaurant and cultural arts communities, in themed group portraits. The campaign also highlights the city’s ethnic diversity.

We heard about this in December. As I said at the time, I’m pretty sure this effort will be more successful than some previous efforts were. We’ll see how it goes.

Weekend link dump for January 27

Jan 27th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Jimmy Carter makes a stand for equality. I hope many of his fellow Baptists follow him.

There are a lot of things we don’t know about gun violence.

The HP Lovecraft problem.

On “healthwashing” Girl Scout cookies.

When a (Yankees fan) man loves a (Red Sox fan) woman.

Beware the rogue cloud.

Google says “Death to passwords”. We’re getting closer to that.

The kittenings will continue until morale improves.

What life in North Korea is like (see also here), from the perspective of a visitor. Executive summary: “Like The Truman Show, at country scale.”

“5 People Shot At 3 Different Gun Shows On Gun Appreciation Day“. Irony laughs its ass off.

We need a Big Deal over the next four years and beyond.

“The idea that the world’s biggest radioactive wasteland could become Europe’s largest wildlife sanctuary is completely counterintuitive for anyone raised on nuclear dystopias.”

Who wants to give birth to a Neanderthal?

Happy 50th birthday, Hakeem Olajuwon!

A proof of the Pythagorean Theorem that even math-phobic people can understand.

Please set your software free, OFA.

So long, Gallup. Hope you’ve learned from the experience.

People like Tucker Carlson are always freaking out about something, so why let it influence your decision making?

Putting a prosecutor in charge of the SEC sounds like a good idea to me.

So long, Sarah. Good luck finding a job.

Three cheers for Ashley Broadway.

It’s Sylvia versus Carol in the runoff

Jan 27th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Pretty much as expected. Here’s the vote totals from the County Clerk:


Candidate    Votes    Pct
=========================
Garcia       7,416  45.37
Alvarado     6,803  41.62
Bray         1,014   6.20
Olmos          461   2.82
Martinez       403   2.47
Reyes          125   0.76
Selva           73   0.45
Delgado         52   0.32

Two points of interest here. One is that the Election Day vote total was 7,747, which was 47.4% of the 16,347 total votes cast; the absentee ballots received in the last few days pushed the early vote total up to 8,600. That meant that the final total was even below my low-end estimate. As I said before, this could be a case where the runoff gets as many votes as the first round, maybe even a bit more. But any way you look at it this is uninspiring.

The other point is that while Garcia had a majority of the absentee ballots and a plurality of the in person early votes, Alvarado nipped her by 33 votes on Election Day. This is just a reminder that anything can happen in the runoff, and the only thing that really matters in elections like this is getting your people to show up. Forget how many votes anyone got in November. Special elections are a whole other ball game.

As for when the runoff will be, the Trib reminds us of the timeline.

Harris County elections officials have 10 days to canvass Election Day results, while Perry’s office has 14, according to the Secretary of State. The governor’s canvass can’t take place until the county finishes its canvass, and the governor has five days after his canvass to order the runoff election. The runoff would have to be set on a date between the 12th and 25th day after Perry ordered it, and it must take place on a Tuesday or a Saturday.

Basically, some time in the next seven weeks, which is to say some time between now and March 16. Don’t expect it much earlier than that.

UPDATE: From KHOU, via PDiddie:

Even some of Alvarado’s closest political allies privately concede defeating Garcia will be difficult, especially after trailing in this weekend’s election. Garcia’s lead in the general election will help her attract campaign funds from contributors hoping to buy favor with the next state senator.

Maybe. It’s about getting your people out, and as we can see it doesn’t necessarily take that many of them. I would not take any bets on the outcome of the runoff.

From the “Anyone can call themselves an expert” department

Jan 27th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Now see, this is what happens when you go soliciting expert witnesses on Craigslist

Bloom County was awesome

Joseph Bast, president and CEO of the Chicago-based Heartland Institute, is a witness for Texans for Real Efficiency and Equity in Education, or TREE, a group led by former state Rep. Kent Grusendorf that is not a plaintiff but was permitted by state District Judge John Dietz to present testimony.

Bast said a taxpayer savings grant program similar to education vouchers would benefit low-income families who could put grant money toward paying for private school tuition.

“If you’re low-income, you’re pretty much trapped in the public school that’s in your direct area,” he said.

Bast estimated that such a grant program would spur about 6 percent of students in Texas public schools to move to private schools, a number he arrived at by evaluating similar programs, including the now-defunct CEO Horizon voucher program in San Antonio’s Edgewood Independent School District.

He said the state saves $7,750 each time a child leaves the public system and, therefore, “the program actually benefits the public schools.” He estimated the annual savings would be about $2 billion.

The state’s previous failure to act on such a proposal “is evidence of the inefficiency of public schools,” Bast said.

[…]

Questioned by Maribel Hernández Rivera, an attorney for one of the plaintiff groups represented by the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Bast acknowledged that he has not graduated from college and holds no degrees in economics, though he considers himself an economist.

He also said neither of two reports he co-authored, which were entered into evidence, had been peer-reviewed.

David Thompson, attorney for another group of school districts, later pointed out that the Legislative Budget Board concluded that the taxpayer savings grant proposal would cost the state money in its first two years of operation. Bast acknowledged that he and the budget board arrived at different conclusions on this point.

“To your knowledge, no government entity in the state of Texas has ever agreed with your analysis of savings, is that correct?” Thompson asked.

“Apparently,” Bast replied.

I figure civil litigators live for these sort of “Perry Mason” moments. I really don’t think I can add anything else to that.

Hog killin’ update

Jan 27th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Because I know you like to know about this sort of thing.

After a competition to kill feral hogs left more than 1,000 of the destructive animals dead in Hays and Caldwell counties, plans are emerging to further control the population.

Both counties participated in the state’s Hog Out County Grants Program, a competition among counties to kill the most feral hogs and to educate people about the hogs from October through December.

The 28 counties that participated last year, including Hays, Caldwell and Williamson, earned points for the number of hogs killed and the number of participants at educational workshops.

According to the state’s Department of Agriculture, Texas is home to nearly 2.6 million feral hogs, the largest population nationwide, and one that’s growing. The Hog Out County Grants Program is one of two the department funds that is aimed at eliminating feral hogs, which damage property, crops and pastures.

The Texas AgriLife Extension Service estimates that the economic damage cause by hogs statewide is $500 million annually. The funds the department will award as a result of the Hog Out program are to be used by counties to implement a plan to reduce their feral hog populations.

The county with the most points wins $20,000. The second- and third-place counties earn $15,000 and $10,000, respectively.

It’s all just a drop in the bucket, really. As we heard before, killing 750,000 of these beasts a year would not be enough to cause a drop in their population. But what are you gonna do? And in case you were wondering, yes, they’re going to try to do something useful with all that meat. Good luck with that.

Saturday video break: Unchained Melody

Jan 26th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Song #34 on the Popdose Top 100 Covers list is “Unchained Melody”, originally by Todd Duncan and covered by the Righteous Brothers. Here’s the original:

I’m willing to bet you’ve never heard that version before. You can see the bones of the Righteous Brothers’ version there, though, which is easily the most famous of the gazillion covers of this song out there. Here it is:

That one I’m pretty sure you have heard. Here’s another one that’s probably closer to what you hear on the radio, but that first one was close enough, and how often did you get to see it performed live? Like I said, there’s a lot of covers of this out there, almost all trying sound like the Righteous Brothers. Here’s one that doesn’t, from the Manhattan Transfer:

I have that album – on vinyl!- and it wasn’t until I’d heard this song a few times that I realized what it was. I actually prefer it to the RB version. What version of this song is your favorite?

Election Day in SD06

Jan 26th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
5 comments

It’s highly unlikely that this will settle anything, but today is Election Day in SD06. If you live in SD06 and have waited till today to cast your ballot, you can find your polling place here or here. I’ve already done my spiel about turnout and finance reports, so let’s see what the media has to say. Here’s the Texas Trib:

Alvarado and Garcia have campaigned at breakneck speeds after Perry officially announced Saturday’s election date on Dec. 13. The ensuing weeks have seen several candidate forums and fundraisers.

The most recent campaign finance filing period ended Jan. 18, with Garcia reporting about $164,000 raised since Jan. 1, expenditures of $300,000 and about $228,400 remaining in her war chest. A pre-election telegram report, which is filed to report contributions received after the date of the last report, shows Garcia raised an additional $14,500.

Alvarado raised about $185,000 during the same time period, spent about $315,000 and has about $110,000 left on hand. She also raised about $20,000 after the filing date, according to her telegram reports on file with the Texas Ethics Commission.

The Houston Chronicle reported Wednesday that plaintiff’s attorney and Democratic donor Steve Mostyn provided a bulk of Garcia’s support. Mostyn has donated more than $200,000 to Garcia throughout the course of the campaign, including about $187,000 in in-kind contributions from Mostyn’s Texas Organizing Project PAC.

The publication also noted that Alvarado received $22,000 from the Houston Police Officers Union and a $15,000 donation from HillCo lobbyists in Austin.

[…]

Garcia also hit Alvarado after the representative touted an endorsement from Stand for Children, an education advocacy group that Garcia said supports school vouchers.

“Sylvia Garcia strongly believes in fully funding our public schools, not using those dollars to help wealthy private schools take money away from our children,” Guerra said in a statement.

Hitting back, Alvarado said she has always supported public education and is on the side of educators and school districts.

“I am a product of HISD,” she said. “If there is any doubt on where I stand on public education, look at my voting record. I am the only one in this race with a record.”

In her release, Garcia includes a link to a document on the Stand for Children website called “What We Stand For: School Choice.”

“This paper begins with an overview of existing choice programs and a discussion of the current evidence available on these policies and their impact on student outcomes and equity,” the researchers write.

Calls to Stand for Children seeking clarification on where the group stands on the issue of vouchers were not immediately returned.

“School choice” means different things to different people, but I have zero doubt that Alvarado would oppose vouchers. There’s nothing in her record or her rhetoric to suggest otherwise. It would be nice to get some clarity from Stand For Children on this, but this will not keep me awake at night.

More from the Chron:

Alvarado said she was focusing on the issues the district’s voters care about: education, the economy and jobs, health care.

“We’re knocking on doors, phone-calling and keeping on message,” she said. “I’m happy we haven’t lowered ourselves into the gutter the way our opponent has.”

Garcia rejected the negative-campaigning charge. “Any time you compare a record – and that’s all we’re doing – your opponent will say you’re going negative. We’ll just have to let the voters decide.”

Whatever you think about the race so far, any real nastiness will come out in the runoff. That’s just how the world works.

[Dorothy] Olmos, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for the State Board of Education in 2010, said she is working her ground game, as well.

“We’re knocking on doors and beating the bushes,” she said.

Olmos, a former teacher and hair salon operator, noted that she received 80,000 votes in the general election for the State Board of Education, 35,000 from Senate District 6.

Dream big, Dorothy. RW Bray got 38,201 votes in SD06 in November, and that’s about twice as many votes as will be cast in total for this race. As a point of comparison, Lawrence Allen, the incumbent Democrat in SBOE 4 that Olmos opposed in 2012, got over 77,000 votes in SD06. And just to fully beat this into submission, by my count there were 27,556 straight ticket Republican votes cast in SD06. This means that nearly 80% of Dorothy Olmos’ vote total in SD06 came from straight ticket voters, of which there will be none today, and that just under 7,500 people made the deliberate and conscious choice of voting for Dorothy Olmos last November. Of course, if she were to match that vote total in this election, she’d be a near lock for the runoff, but I feel pretty confident saying that ain’t gonna happen. I’ll have a brief post about who does make the runoff tonight and a fuller one tomorrow morning. Stace has more.

UPDATE: It will be Sylvia versus Carol for the runoff. No surprises at all.

Inside baseball with the hospital district

Jan 26th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

I’m not really sure what I’m supposed to learn from this article about the political relationship between the Harris County Hospital District and Commissioners Court.

New name for HCHD

You have to wonder if David Lopez ever feels like he’s in the circus.

When Lopez, the CEO of Harris Health System, Harris County’s public hospital district, visits Commissioners Court to present a proposal, purchase, or budget, he tends to play the role of target in a precision knife-throwing act, facing a flurry of sharp questions.

So it was last week, when Lopez sought to buy a mothballed outpatient surgery center on the Southwest Freeway for $7.8 million. Frowning court members said it was the first they had heard of the item, and nearly rejected the matter outright before sending it to the county infrastructure director for further study.

It was the latest example of disconnect between the hospital district and the county’s leaders. The district operates separately from the county, but its board is appointed by Commissioners Court and the court approves its annual budget, tax rate and long-term real estate leases and purchases. Aides to the court members attend the board’s meetings to monitor operations and, presumably, report back to their bosses.

Yet, Lopez and HHS cannot seem to get buy-in from the court on a consistent basis.

“The district is adrift in a sea of uncertainty, and they can’t really figure out what they need to do or should do. It’s a moving target,” said Commissioner Steve Radack, the health system’s most vocal critic on the court. “They say one day they need a hospital in this area, then they go to another area, then they come back to the first area. They really don’t know what they want.”

Things that I did learn from this story: Harris Health System, formerly known as the Harris County Hospital District, and Commissioners Court sometimes don’t see eye to eye on what HHS wants to do. Better communication between them might or might not help.

Things that I did not learn from this story: First and foremost, whether an outside observer would be inclined to agree with the HHS’s vision for primary care and prevention or if such an observer would agree with the Court that the HHS isn’t focused enough on primary care and prevention. Or perhaps that observer would tell us that it’s not so much a matter of vision as it is one of execution on HHS’s part or expectations on the county’s. It would also be nice to know what an outside observer thinks the county’s needs are and what the priorities should be, and how those compare to what HHS and the county say HHS is doing. Unfortunately, the whole story was basically a he said/she said, and that left me unable to properly evaluate either side’s position. It’s good to know that HHS and the Court disagree on things, but it would be even better to know, or at least suspect, that one or both of them is talking out of something other than their mouths. I don’t have any way of drawing that kind of conclusion or inference from this story, and that’s a shame.

The Real Housewives of the Oilpatch

Jan 26th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Sure, why not?

Not these housewives

A reality television show developer has traveled from California to Texas in hopes of spinning the “Real Housewives” concept into an oil field drama.

Matt Stroud, a development producer for CrashHat Entertainment, recently released a casting call for women who can show “the real American pride that goes hand-in-hand with being an oil field wife.” He said he already has received applications from 400 wives eager to share their lives on the small screen.

Stroud, who works from Santa Monica, Calif., said he was unfamiliar with the unique lives of oil field families until he was introduced to the roughneck culture during a recent visit to Texas.

“It felt very marketable in terms of what would work” for TV, he said.

Oil field jobs often require two-week shifts, with workers cycling between 14 days in the field and 14 days at home. Some wives have created a vibrant online community, with websites devoted to their lifestyles, Pinterest boards pinned with pink hard hats, and Facebook community pages where tens of thousands of wives swap advice about surviving their husbands’ long stays away from home.

Stroud said wives from across the country have sent applications, from Alaska to Pennsylvania to California.

They don’t have a network yet, but I’m kind of rooting for them. There are certainly worse things on which to base a TV show. And who knows, it might actually be educational. All I know for sure is that if this does become a thing, I request – nay, I demand – that the Chron’s Therese Odell blog about it. I mean, this was meant to be.

Friday random ten: For the sake of randomness

Jan 25th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

You know what I haven’t done in awhile? A Friday random ten that was actually random. So here we go.

1. Mrs. Robinson – Pomplamoose
2. Say What! – Stevie Ray Vaughan
3. Adios, Lorena – Eddie From Ohio
4. Tenth Avenue Freeze-Out – Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band
5. The Recruited Collier – Paisley Close
6. Truckin’ – Dwight Yoakam
7. Subdivisions – Rush
8. Wild Eyed Southern Boys – .38 Special
9. Funnel Of Love – Asylum Street Spankers
10. Ear Nose And Throat – Troubled Hubble

The Springsteen is from his “Live 1975-1985” collection. It was five albums when it came out back in the day, but only three CDs. I’m kind of amused that vinyl has made a comeback lately. We’re swimming in old-fashioned record stores in my neighborhood these days. I don’t really have the space for more stuff these days, so I’ll be sticking with MP3s for now. But I’m happy for them and wish them the best. Have you bought any vinyl lately?

Optimism abounds at inauguration time

Jan 25th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Inauguration time is always a good time to be optimistic.

Mayor Julian Castro

Texas Democrats haven’t had a lot to cheer about in recent years.

As San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro is quick to remind you, the political score in Texas is 29-0. In favor of the Republicans.

That means 29 Republicans in statewide offices; zero Democrats.

But amid the glitz and glamor of the second Obama inauguration, celebratory Texas Democrats — including Castro — are beginning to think that they might just have a pathway to political competitiveness in the Lone Star State.

“I’m telling you: In six to eight years, Texas is going to be a Democratic state,” Castro told several hundred enthusiastic Democratic partisan feasting on beef brisket at D.C.’s popular Hill Country Barbecue joint.

Five new Democratic members of Congress — including three Latinos and an African American — are giving party activists reason to hope that they can compete in Texas sooner than the pundits are now predicting.

“It’s not going to be pretty. It’s not going to be easy. But it can be done,” said freshman Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth.

Of course it can be done, and I’m as big a believer in it getting done as anyone, but it sure would be nice to know there’s a plan out there somewhere to actually do it. We know what the elements are – money, organization, voter registration, message, outreach, etc etc etc – but who’s working on it? For a change, there may now be a real answer to that question.

National Democrats are taking steps to create a large-scale independent group aimed at turning traditionally conservative Texas into a prime electoral battleground, crafting a new initiative to identify and mobilize progressive voters in the rapidly-changing state, strategists familiar with the plans told POLITICO.

The organization, dubbed “Battleground Texas,” plans to engage the state’s rapidly growing Latino population, as well as African-American voters and other Democratic-leaning constituencies that have been underrepresented at the ballot box in recent cycles. Two sources said the contemplated budget would run into the tens of millions of dollars over several years – a project Democrats hope has enough heft to help turn what has long been an electoral pipe dream into reality.

At the center of the effort is Jeremy Bird, formerly the national field director for President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign, who was in Austin last week to confer with local Democrats about the project.

In a statement to POLITICO, Bird said the group would be “a grass-roots organization that will make Texas a battleground state by treating it like one.”

“With its diversity and size, Texas should always be a battleground state where local elections are vigorously contested and anyone who wants to be our commander in chief has to compete and show they reflect Texas values. Yet for far too long, the state’s political leaders, both in Austin and in Washington, D.C., have failed to stand for Texans,” said Bird, who recently founded a consulting firm, 270 Strategies. “Over the next several years, Battleground Texas will focus on expanding the electorate by registering more voters — and as importantly, by mobilizing Texans who are already registered voters but who have not been engaged in the democratic process.”

[…]

One Democrat close to the planning process said the group intended to bring in “top campaign talent to Texas” for a long-term organizing push. Strategists filed papers with the Texas Ethics Commission to create Battleground Texas earlier this month with that goal in mind.

“It’s going to take a sustained effort and we’re going to have to prove ourselves over time,” the Democrat said. “We need to have the talent in state to build something real over time and make the environment such that you can look someone in the eye and say, ‘You can run statewide and you can win,’ or you can tell a presidential candidate that you should really consider putting resources here.”

Another strategist tied to Texas called the project a “very positive effort to try to put together a pretty broad grass-roots organization to try to identify and ultimately mobilize progressive voters.”

“There’s a realistic view that that will take more than one cycle,” the strategist said. “None of this stuff is ever real until you’ve got money.”

That all sounds good, and I’m happy to hear about it. There are many questions to be asked about this – Who’s actually running it? Where’s the money coming from? What are the short and long term goals? How can you be sure this will last beyond the next election cycle? – but it’s a start. It will help that the bench is deeper today than any time in recent memory. The Castro brothers, Marc Veasey, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Gallego, Wendy Davis – any of them will be a fine statewide candidate when they’re ready, and they aren’t the only ones on the horizon. If they have sufficient infrastructure behind them their eventual tasks will be much easier. Eye on Williamson, BOR, Burka, Trail Blazers, and the DMN have more.

Another reason why spending caps are a bad idea

Jan 25th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

There are many reasons why, but this is one we haven’t encountered before.

Several political observers well-versed in the state’s finances say that lawmakers could hit the state’s spending limit this session, complicating efforts to access the $11.8 billion in the state’s Rainy Day Fund.

The Texas Constitution says the government can’t grow faster than the state’s economy. That growth rate is always set ahead of the session based on the estimated rate of growth in Texans’ personal income over the next two years. Passing a budget that busts the limit requires support from a simple majority of the House and Senate.

While it’s a simple idea, in practice, the constitutional spending limit is about as clear as mud. The exact amount of the spending limit for the next budget remains a moving target, and there is disagreement on some aspects of how the limit is meant to be applied, particularly whether any spending from the Rainy Day Fund is subject to the limit.

“Apparently there’s a lot of confusion out there about what counts and what doesn’t,” said Eva DeLuna Castro, a senior budget analyst for the liberal Center for Public Policy Priorities in Austin.

This year, lawmakers find themselves contending with reaching the limit largely because of the Texas economy’s rapid swing from a recession to a robust recovery. Cuts made in 2011 were based on estimates from the comptroller’s office that revenue would come in at low levels. The rebound happened faster than expected, leaving the current Legislature with a large surplus and calls to spend some of it on a range of expensive proposals, including tapping the Rainy Day Fund to restore billions in education cuts made last session.

“One can argue that we really didn’t need to make many of the cuts in the budget that were made in the last legislative session, including the $5 billion in cuts to public education,” said education finance expert Lynn Moak. “But to get it back, you have to bust the spending limit.”

[…]

In November, the LBB voted to set the growth rate in spending at 10.71 percent. Several people watching the budget process predict that rate should lead to a final spending limit that will allow lawmakers, if they choose, to spend virtually all of the available general revenue this session, expected to be roughly $95 billion after lawmakers pass a supplemental budget for 2012-13.

The $11.8 billion projected to be in the state’s Rainy Day Fund is a different matter. House officials have said the limit applies to most types of spending that lawmakers have proposed for the fund, though certain kinds of tax relief would be exempt. Dale Craymer, president of the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association, helped write the legislation that created the Rainy Day Fund in the late 1980s, and he said that’s not what the lawmakers who originally approved it bargained for.

“It was never the intent that the spending limit apply to the Rainy Day Fund,” said Craymer. He agreed the issue is now a point of debate.

Well, this is the sort of thing that happens when you let ideology override policy. Surely no business would allow itself to be handcuffed by the inept forecast of an incompetent financial officer, but that appears to be the position Texas has put itself in. The good news, as the Statesman notes, is that so far at least legislators don’t appear to be willing to tie themselves down in this fashion. Rep. Donna Howard has filed a bill to clarify that the Rainy Day Fund is not subject to this spending cap; the bill in question is HB652. There’s hope that we can work around this without anything too dumb happening.

This assumes that Rick Perry doesn’t make the situation worse by pushing through an even tighter cap, because doing stupid and harmful things like that is his job. Scott McCown explains why this is such a bad idea.

If a family budgeted this way, no matter how much money the family made, it could never improve its life. Imagine sitting down to write your first family budget. Naturally it is lean, but you have dreams of a better future — a safer neighborhood, a graduate degree. Under the governor’s proposal, though, even as your income increased, you would be stuck living under that lean budget adjusted only by family growth and household inflation. You could never make your life better.

Not being able to make things better would be a big problem for Texas. However you measure it, Texas ranks low in spending. Our systems for education, water, transportation, mental health, child protection, and many others are struggling. If we could adjust our current lean budget only for population and inflation, we could never make major new investments to improve our state.

The governor’s proposal has another big problem: Not only could a family not improve its life, periodically things would actually get worse. As the Great Recession reminded us, income doesn’t always go up. Sometimes breadwinners suffer a pay cut or lose a job, and a family has to cut its budget. Under the governor’s proposal, this lower level of spending would become the new base.

For a family, that would mean if it made $35,000 last year, but only $30,000 this year, its budget for next year would have to be based on the lower figure even if it made $40,000. Yes, even after the family’s income recovered, it couldn’t increase spending. No family would budget in a way that prevented recovering from a setback, and no state should, either.

The governor’s formula also uses the wrong measures of population and inflation. A family budget isn’t based merely on family size, but on family composition — whether the family is budgeting for a baby, for a child in college, or to care for grandma matters a lot to the bottom line. Likewise, a state can’t merely consider growth in total population; a state must consider who it is actually serving. For example, in Texas the rate of elderly who potentially need assisted living through Medicaid is projected to grow twice as fast as our total population between now and 2040.

And just as a family wouldn’t base its budget on government inflation, a state shouldn’t base its budget on household inflation. Families and governments buy different “baskets” of goods and services. A much higher portion of the state budget, for example, goes to buy health care, which is increasing in cost faster than household inflation. By using the wrong measures of population and inflation, year after year, the governor’s proposal would force Texas to do less and less for fewer and fewer.

As far as Perry and his cronies are concerned, doing less and less for fewer and fewer is a feature, not a bug. As always, now is an excellent time to let your State Rep and State Senator know that you want them to work on solving Texas’ problems, not making them worse. It’s not their job to tell future legislators what they can and cannot do. EoW has more.

The case against Metro advertising

Jan 25th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Ed Wulfe isn’t happy with talk about Metro putting ads on buses and trains.

In the late 1970s, Houston voters overwhelmingly defeated a local referendum to allow ads on bus shelters. Soon after, Houston City Council banned all new billboards within the city limits, then extended the prohibition to the limits of the city’s extraterritorial jurisdiction. In the years since, Houston and Harris County have also created Scenic Districts with signage constraints and ongoing landscaping enhancement efforts.

As a result of these measures, the number of billboards in greater Houston has been reduced an astounding 84 percent over the past 30 years, from more than 10,000 to less than 1,500 – and the number continues to decrease. This dramatic reduction in visual clutter has been accompanied by infrastructure investments that further enhance Houstonians’ quality of life. For example, our city’s parks continue to grow and will become even better and more accessible in the years ahead, thanks to the overwhelming support of Houston voters in the most recent bond elections.

Given this extraordinary progress, it is very troubling that Houston Metro is now considering selling ad space on its taxpayer-funded bus and train fleet. The desire for new sources of revenue is understandable, but this should not occur at the expense of Houston’s visual environment. Paid advertising on the sides of buses would not only be unsightly; it would also create additional distractions for drivers, not to mention opening up our city to a variety of challenges relating to deciding who can advertise and what types of ads would be permitted.

For all of these reasons and more, advertising on the exterior of Metro’s vehicles is unacceptable and should not be allowed. Instead, Houston Metro should explore other revenue-generating opportunities that have fewer negative consequences. Options such as providing naming rights on park and ride facilities and selling advertising on the interior of buses should be considered, for example. I am also confident that Metro’s administrative and board leadership can find ways to reduce their operational expenses a minimal amount to offset any potential revenue sources from damaging advertising on the sides of buses.

See here for the background. I don’t share the concerns about ads on buses and trains, though I do concede that the occasional controversy about what does or does not get advertised is inevitable and unpleasant. But this isn’t a hill I want to die on. If there’s no objection to selling station naming rights, or to ads on the inside of buses and trains, then I’m fine with that. Giving up that small piece of revenue is worth it to avoid a fight and maintain goodwill. Let’s move forward with those things.

Will we have enough power?

Jan 25th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Maybe not. From the EDF.

It’s understandable that no one seems to have noticed a strongly worded letter to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) last Monday demanding more action to ensure electric reliability in Texas, and asking ERCOT to report back to NERC by April 30 on additional actions taken.  NERC isn’t some federal boogey man either; it’s a corporation founded by the electric industry to create commonly accepted standards for electric reliability across North America, usually through voluntary compliance.  President Bush’s Energy Policy Act of 2005 gave the corporation “the authority to create and enforce compliance with Reliability Standards,” which is where this letter comes into play.

In their 2012 report, NERC highlighted ERCOT as the only region in North America that was not maintaining adequate electric reserves to meet demand, and with this letter they made it very clear that the actions taken to date have not done enough to mitigate that risk.  In the letter, NERC President Gerry Cauley notes that the PUC and ERCOT are continuing to address energy reliability issues, but finds that “solutions have not yet sufficiently materialized to address NERC’s reserve margin concern.”

Cauley goes on to say that “it is still unclear to us how ERCOT intends to mitigate issues that may arise on the current trajectory and when new resources may be available to meet growing demand.”  So according to the corporation whose membership consists mostly of utilities, grid operators, large and small customers, and electric regulators, the actions that the PUC and ERCOT have taken at this point are not enough to ensure we’ll have reliable electric supply, risking blackouts as soon as this summer.

As lawmakers settle into Austin for the next few months they’ll certainly be paying close attention to this issue, though many have indicated they would prefer that ERCOT and the PUC develop the solutions to this problem.  Cauley’s letter serves as notice that the PUC and ERCOT need to be more aggressive if they want to ensure a reliable supply of power in Texas.  Certainly both agencies are putting serious time and effort into keeping the lights on in Texas, including effort so expand existing demand response programs, but NERC clearly thinks they need to be doing more.

This was also noted by Loren Steffy, who says that Texas is now “under more pressure than ever to encourage generation, and that’s likely to mean higher prices at a time when the deregulated market was supposed to be delivering lower prices to consumers”. (He also notes that consumer protections are likely to be weakened, because that’s how we roll in this state.) Thanks to the continued tax credit in the so-called fiscal “cliff” deal, there will be more wind projects gearing up, and ERCOT foresees $8.9 billion in electric transmission projects by the end of 2017, but neither will help in the short term, and it’s still not enough for the longer term. I don’t know what else there is to be done, so just consider this a heads up for when the crunch does hit.

The state begins preparing its excuses for its WHP screwup

Jan 24th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

The fail is strong in this one.

Right there with them

State health officials continue to insist that they have signed up more than enough providers to replace Planned Parenthood across most of Texas. Areas of limited coverage — including San Angelo, Corsicana and Paris — are being scoured to find health care providers willing to join the Women’s Health Project, they said.

In the meantime, the provider information that was pulled from the Health and Human Services Commission’s website is undergoing a belated check for accuracy to remove doctors and clinics that were mistakenly listed as participants in the Women’s Health Program or that provided only limited services, such as surgical contraception.

New information will not be posted online until a state contractor verifies that every listed health care provider is a participant in the Women’s Health Program — and state health agency employees double-check the revised list, said Stephanie Goodman, a spokeswoman for the state Health and Human Services Commission.

What went wrong?

Originally, the list was generated by the contractor, the Texas Medicaid and Healthcare Partnership, by using provider numbers for practices that had joined the health program, Goodman said. That shortcut, however, captured all locations of a provider group, even those that were not participating — including pediatric clinics, labs and surgeons.

“Obviously, on something this high-profile, that’s going to be this scrutinized, this is an area where we should have done a better job,” she said.

“Our mistake, honestly, was not calling on our own” to verify the contractor’s work, Goodman said. “On paper, picking up all those providers that could legitimately bill under the program made sense. We should have realized that pulling from billing records would make it difficult for women to use” the list.

Goodman said she expects the revised list to be published online this week.

That’s what you said last week, Stephanie. I guess one of these weeks you’ll be correct about that.

The mistakes were unfortunate, Goodman said, because they overshadowed a lot of hard work that has been done to launch the state program, particularly in signing up enough new providers to meet the need left by Planned Parenthood’s ouster.

“That’s one of the sad parts of this. I’d hate for women to see these stories and think, ‘There’s no help for me,’ ” she said. “There are clinics all over the state that said they have the ability to serve more women.”

The real mistake, of course, was believing that in Rick Perry’s Texas, where the 2011 Legislature slashed spending on family planning by two-thirds, there would be any incentive for this to be done right. Forget the scapegoating of the contractor, whose work was apparently never supervised or verified by anyone at the HHSC – we don’t need no stinkin’ project management! – and focus for a minute on the statement above on how “areas of limited coverage” – that is, places where only Planned Parenthood had done this kind of work before – are still “being scoured” to find providers more than three weeks after the state WHP was supposed to go live. No one could have seen this coming, because the Perry administration has such an admirable record of caring about women and children, especially poor women and children. If these women have received a message that there’s no help for them, there’s a good reason for it.

More STAAR changes proposed

Jan 24th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Everyone’s least favorite standardized test is a fat target these days.

State Sen. Kel Seliger, the Amarillo Republican who chairs the Senate Higher Education Committee, filed a bill Tuesday offering broad changes to student assessment and high school graduation requirements in Texas.

Senate Bill 225 would significantly reduce the number of state standardized tests students must pass to graduate — from 15 to five in reading, writing, biology, Algebra I and U.S. history. It would also leave whether to count the state exams toward anything besides graduation requirements up to local school boards. A rule that requires state end-of-course exams to count toward 15 percent of students’ final grade is currently suspended, but it would take effect again next year if lawmakers do not change it.

Seliger’s bill would restructure high school graduation plans so that the current requirement of four years each in math, science, English and social studies, known as the “4X4,” would be replaced by a 26 credit “Foundation High School Program.” That program would require students to earn 16 credits in core subject areas — four in English, three in math, three in social studies, two in science, two in foreign language, and one in each physical education and fine arts — plus 10 elective credits. The program would allow students to earn diploma “endorsements” by completing five credits across areas of studies like humanities, science, engineering, technology and math, or business and industry.

Here’s SB 225, which has quite a lot to it. Rep. Mike Villarreal filed similar legislation in the House on Tuesday as well. You never know how these sweeping efforts will fare, but if there’s ever a session for this sort of thing, it’s this one, with public support aligned and the biggest booster of the STAAR standing down.

And here’s an alternate proposal that has some merit.

When Texas debuted its much-maligned STAAR test last school year, some of the harshest criticisms came from teachers, who complained they’d been given little guidance about what sorts of questions the test would include. In fact, Texas keeps the tests under wraps for three years so it can reuse them.

A bill from state Rep. Mark Strama (D-Austin) would change that, to release STAAR questions and answer keys every year. Texas would pay the testmaker, Pearson, $2.1 million annually to develop new questions every year, according to the Texas Education Agency.

[…]

Dineen Majcher, president of the board for Texans Advocating for Meaningful Student Assessment, agrees it’s a problem that teachers have to wait up to three years to see old tests. But she said Strama’s bill still doesn’t go far enough.

“While he’s going in the right direction, that still doesn’t give us diagnostic data,” Majcher said. “Diagnostic data shows in detail where the student made errors or did well and you can use that information to help that student improve.”

Unlike the STAAR test, Majcher said, her daughter brings home class tests that allow her to see what concepts she didn’t understand and better understand any mistake she originally made. Major changes to standardized testing must be implemented for students to better learn from the questions they’ve missed, Majcher said.

“Seeing the test itself is the best way to do that…in everyday school life that’s how students learn,” Majcher said. “I appreciate what Mark is trying to do, but if we’re going to do this, let’s do it right.”

Strama’s bill is HB554. I think what Majcher is saying is that being able to take practice tests and get feedback on what you got wrong is best. I agree with that but it seems to me that if you have the tests you can do the rest. Maybe I’m not fully understanding her concern. In any event, keep an eye on this one as well. It’ll be interesting to look back and see how the STAAR has been changed. If it somehow survives mostly intact, it won’t be from lack of effort and ideas. For a good discussion on the issues with STAAR and some proposed solutions, see this Texas Principal post from September.

Pushing for equality in Waco

Jan 24th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Glad to hear it.

A group of Waco residents is seeking a city ordinance to bar public and private employers from discriminating on the basis of sexual orientation.

Advocates of the measure plan to propose it Thursday to the city’s Equal Employment Opportunity Advisory Committee and hope to get Waco City Council to consider it in coming months.

The as-yet-unnamed group wants the city to follow the lead of cities including Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin, which have passed citywide policies against sexual orientation discrimination.

Spokeswoman Susan Duty said she was disturbed to learn recently that state and federal laws do not bar discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender candidates, unless they are federal employees.

“It’s perfectly legal for an employer in the state of Texas to fire someone just because they are gay,” said Duty, who described herself as a “straight ally” to gays and lesbians. “Other cities have created ordinances to protect workers, and we wanted a way for responsible LGBT citizens to feel safe in their employment, no matter what it is.”

[…]

Equality Texas executive director Chuck Smith said cities such as Houston, San Antonio and El Paso have policies against sexual orientation discrimination within city government.

But Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin go further, with “human rights commissions” that hear complaints against workplace and housing discrimination, including discrimination against LGBT residents. The commissions are allowed to impose fines of up to $500 for discrimination.

Smith said he thinks such fines are infrequent, but the committees also can resolve employment discrimination claims without resorting to fines.

Smith said most corporations already forbid discrimination against LGBT workers by their own internal policies.

“None of these cities saw a huge wave of activity,” he said.

He said ordinances can be written to exempt religious institutions such as schools and universities.

Here’s a copy of the letter that was sent to Waco’s Equal Employment Opportunity Advisory Committee. What’s extra cool about this is that one of the signers, Carmen Saenz, was a high school classmate of mine. She’s the one who tipped me off about this. The EEOAC’s agenda is here. My understanding is that this item isn’t on there now but will be discussed at a subsequent meeting. Here’s more from the Dallas Voice:

Duty, a straight ally, attended an Equality Texas event a few months ago, learning that the state doesn’t offer protections against anti-LGBT job discrimination. Legislation has been filed for the current legislative session to add the statewide protections.

“When I found out that it was legal to discriminate against LGBT people in employment, I was like, that’s ridiculous,” Duty said. “We can’t change it in the state, but we can change it in our city. We can change it in our community.”

Duty then began her research on how to add the employment protections to the city of Waco’s nondiscrimination policy.

[…]

Duty said she’s prepared for opposition and has already prepared to take the issue to City Council, where she expects to have a harder fight. She’s talked to council members who have agreed to sponsor the changes and bring the issue before the council, which would likely happen in February.

Good on you, Susan Duty. We could use many more people like you. Be sure to read that linked article in the excerpt, it’s a great overview of what equality advocates hope to achieve and aim to oppose this session.

One more thing from that Waco Trib story:

Paul Derrick, a supporter of the LGBT advocacy group, said an anti-discrimination policy at least would send the message to gays and lesbians that they are welcome members of the community and workforce.

“It seems to me this is just another civil rights issue,” said Derrick, who was involved in civil rights ordinances and legal battles in Waco in the 1960s and ’70s.

“I think outside Waco, it would have a positive image. It would show that Waco is not stuck in yesteryear, but is moving along with the currents of the larger society.”

I think that’s exactly right. Remember how much positive press the city of Houston got around the world for the election of Mayor Parker? It wasn’t that big a deal to us, but there were an awful lot of people whose reaction was basically “Wait, HOUSTON did that??” They had an image of Houston that wasn’t consistent with who we are, and the news of that election made them rethink it. I doubt Waco will get coverage of that magnitude when they get this done, but it will be noticed and it will be good for them. I wish the people pursuing this the very best of luck with their effort.

Final SD06 early voting turnout

Jan 24th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
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Here’s the final daily record of early voting in SD06. Tuesday was the strongest day as expected, with a bit over 1,000 ballots being cast, but that just got the total to 8,245. With four more days for mail ballots to arrive, I’d guess the number will ultimately be about 8,500 when the first results are posted Saturday evening. As such, my official guess for total turnout is between 17,000 and 22,000. Not terribly inspiring, but what are you gonna do? PDiddie has more.

If you live in SD06 and have waited to vote till Saturday, you can find your Election Day polling place here – I’ve got it as a Google spreadsheet as well. Remember that for low-turnout elections some precincts will be consolidated, so don’t assume your regular November ballot location will be open. Check before you go, and call the County Clerk’s office at 713 755 6965 if you have any questions or see any problems.

I should note that like the special election in District H from 2009, I think this could be one of those elections where turnout in the runoff meets or exceeds turnout from the first round of voting. The stakes are higher in the runoff, obviously, but as that is the time when both Team Sylvia and Team Carol will throw out whatever remaining bad stuff they have on each other, it’s likely there will be more news coverage of the race. That’s not a very pleasant thought either, but we already knew there wasn’t a correlation between the civility of a campaign and the size of the electorate.

Finally, on a side note, the Chron took a look at the January finance reports for Carol Alvarado and Sylvia Garcia. All I can say to that is what took them so long? Not that it really matters all that much at this point, because as of yesterday the 8 day reports were finally posted. Here’s the skinny:

Carol Alvarado

Raised $185,016
Spent $314,904
Cash $109,742

Sylvia Garcia

Raised $163,822
Spent $299,841
Cash $228,408

RW Bray

Raised $345
Spent $360
Cash $345

Maria Selva

Raised $410
Spent $0
Cash $197

Susan DelgadoJanuary semiannual report posted, but the only item in it was the $1250 filing fee.

Joaquin Martinez

Raised $5,558
Spent $1,957
Cash $0

Rodolfo Reyes

Raised $0
Spent $2,966
Cash $0
Loan $16,607

Dorothy Olmos did not have an 8 day report available. To their credit, the Chron did report on the 8 days yesterday, so good on them for that. I didn’t have the time to wade through these reports, so I will leave that to you. At the very least, it looks like Sylvia Garcia may head into the runoff with more cash on hand, though we won’t know till later how much both she and Carol Alvarado will spend between the 18th and the 26th. We’ll see how they stand on Saturday and go from there. Stace has more.

Texas blog roundup for the week of January 21

Jan 24th, 2013
by Charles Kuffner.
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The Texas Progressive Alliance wishes President Obama all the best at the start of his second term as it brings you this week’s roundup.

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