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Hurricane season quiet so far

That’s nice, but it doesn’t mean we’re in good shape.

Although the first Atlantic named storm typically forms by July 10, the real activity doesn’t usually begin until August, and a lull in early season activity doesn’t necessarily presage a weak overall season.

The 2004 season, for example, didn’t see its first storm until Hurricane Alex began developing on July 31.

Yet after Alex the season rapidly ramped up, finishing with 15 storms and 6 major hurricanes, including Hurricane Ivan. A storm the size of Texas, Ivan was one of the 10 most intense hurricanes ever in the Atlantic basin before striking Gulf Shores, Ala., and causing $19 billion in damage.

And while El Niños may suppress overall activity, such years can still produce savage storms. One of the three most-intense storms at a U.S. landfall, Hurricane Andrew, developed during an El Niño in 1992.

So have some of the most famed storms ever to strike Texas and Louisiana: Alicia (1983), Betsy (1965) and the great storm of 1900, which came during a severe El Niño, said Jill Hasling, president of Houston’s Weather Research Center.

“There might be fewer storms during an El Niño,” she said. “But it only takes one.”

Yeah, that’s been my mantra of late – it’s not how many hurricanes there are, it’s how many big ones there are, and one of them is plenty. Conditions this year are such that there’s also the possibility of a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico and striking land quickly, as was the case with Hurricane Humberto in 2007, or more scarily the Hurricane of 1932. So, you know, keep those emergency supplies in stock, and don’t rest easy.

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