Tag Archives: CD23

Where the Republicans think they’re vulnerable

Always good to get the opposing perspective on these things. Eight House Republicans, including the three from districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, have been named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of incumbents expected to face tough … Continue reading

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Add CD10 to the contested primaries list

It has been that way for awhile now, but I’m only just noticing that there is a second candidate for the Democratic nomination in CD10. This Statesman story, which is about the multiple Congressional districts being targeted by Democrats for … Continue reading

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DCCC polls Trump in three target districts

News flash: Donald Trump is not very popular. Surveys the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently conducted found that 41 percent of voters approved of Trump’s job performance in Texas’ 24th congressional district, where Rep. Kenny Marchant serves, while 44 percent … Continue reading

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One more for CD24

Another contested primary. Democrat Candace Valenzuela, a 34-year-old Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board member, is launching a campaign Monday against Texas GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant, one of the party’s top targets in 2020. She will face an uphill battle for her … Continue reading

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Here comes the DCCC

National Dems really are serious about competing in Texas next year. National Democrats are ratcheting up their Texas offensive yet again ahead of 2020. The chairwoman of U.S. House Democratic campaign arm announced Tuesday morning that her committee will open … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading

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Just a reminder, Will Hurd is still a Republican

That means he does Republican things. Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination. … Continue reading

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Cornyn still thinks he may face Beto

He could be right, but I would not expect it. Beto O’Rourke has ruled out another run for the Senate, and as he edges closer to a bid for president, Texas Democrats are still searching for someone to challenge Sen. … Continue reading

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January 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

We come to the last of our January finance report roundups. The next one will be in April, for Congressional candidates, which will be our first indicator of who among the repeaters and the newcomers has gotten off to a … Continue reading

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Elisa Cardnell

Meet your first official candidate for CD02. A naval battle just might be on the horizon in one of Houston’s most competitive Congressional districts. On Thursday Navy veteran and science teacher Elisa Cardnell, a Democrat, filed papers with the Federal … Continue reading

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More looking forward to 2020

Gonna have some more of that sweet Congressional election action. Smelling blood after picking up two Texas congressional seats in November – along with Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss in the U.S. Senate race – House Democrats [recently] announced six new … Continue reading

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There sure was a lot of money spent on Congressional races in Texas

If we’re lucky, it will be the start of a trend. Never has Texas seen as much money spent on Congressional campaigns as it did in 2018. New campaign finance data shows that the state didn’t just beat its old … Continue reading

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The first targets for 2020

We’ve already agreed that the 2020 election season has begun, so a little attack advertising over the shutdown seems like a good play National Democrats have five Texas Republican congressmen in their crosshairs as they begin the 2020 election cycle … Continue reading

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2020 is starting early

Example One: The calendar just turned to 2019, but the 2020 race for Congressional seats in Texas is already on. A few days after Christmas, San Antonio resident Liz Wahl, 33, a former cable television news anchor, filed papers in … Continue reading

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The losers of 2018

Allow me to point you to the Observer’s list of six Texas political players who lost power in 2018. I’d call it five-sixths of a good list, plus one entry I don’t quite understand. 3) Bexar County Democrats Want to … Continue reading

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More Congressional retirement speculation

From Roll Call: Life in the minority will be a new experience for most House Republicans next year. And many of them may not remember what happened the last time the GOP lost the House. After the 2006 Democratic wave, … Continue reading

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The next round of redistricting is going to be even more fun

Close races do complicate things. Texas Republicans collected half of the votes statewide in congressional races this month. ­But even after Democrats flipped two districts, toppling GOP veterans in Dallas and Houston, Republicans will control 23 of the state’s 36 … Continue reading

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Ortiz Jones concedes in CD23

Thus endeth that race. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones conceded Monday in her challenge to U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, ensuring a third term for Hurd in his perennial battleground district. “While we came up short this time, we ran a … Continue reading

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An update on the close races

Good news from Harris County. Fresh tallies of absentee and provisional ballots narrowed state Rep. Dwayne Bohac’s margin over Democrat Adam Milasincic to 47 votes, while incumbent Republican Mike Schofield of Katy trailed Democratic challenger Gina Calanni by 113 votes. … Continue reading

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Initial thoughts: Congress

I’ll be honest: I never felt particularly confident about winning CD07 or CD32. Not because Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred weren’t excellent candidates, or anything to do with the trends of the national environment or what have you. I just … Continue reading

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Ortiz Jones requests more time for provisional ballots

She did not succeed, however. A Bexar County judge denied a request by Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who trails incumbent Republican Will Hurd by a few hundred votes in the race for the most competitive congressional district in Texas, to … Continue reading

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CD23 update

Today is the last day to cure a provisional ballot. In the meantime, the counting goes on in the closest Texas Congressional race. Election officials in 29 Texas counties are furiously counting outstanding votes in the Congressional District 23 election, … Continue reading

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How many recounts might there be?

More than one, is my guess. On Wednesday, Dallas state Rep. Morgan Meyer, a Republican, tweeted that he was “honored and grateful” voters had decided to send him back to the Texas Legislature for another term in office. But his … Continue reading

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The CD23 race isn’t quite over yet

I believe it is highly unlikely that the outcome in CD23 will change from the current close win for Rep. Will Hurd, but we are not done counting the votes just yet. The Texas congressional race between incumbent Republican Will … Continue reading

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From the “I may have spoken too soon” department

First, Will Hurd was declared the winner in CD23. But there were still a few precincts out, some in deep red Medina County and others in El Paso County. Hurd started the evening with a 6K early vote lead, but … Continue reading

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Omnibus election report

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading

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Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading

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October 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Wow. It’s not just Beto. Newly filed campaign finance reports show that money flooded into Democratic congressional campaigns all across the state over the last three months. Along with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s blockbuster $38 million haul in his bid against … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: Nine from Obama

I don’t know what the practical effect of this is, but I’m happy for the attention. Former President Barack Obama has backed nine more Democratic candidates in Texas as part of his second round of midterm endorsements. The nine candidates … Continue reading

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CD07 “live poll”: Culberson 48, Fletcher 45

Here’s another of those NYT-Siena “live polls” of interesting Congressional races. Houston Rep. John Culberson holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher, a poll conducted by The New York Times Upshot found Tuesday. Culberson’s 3-point lead is within … Continue reading

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CD23 “live poll”: Hurd 51, Ortiz Jones 43

Give this one a bit of side-eye. Incumbent Republican Will Hurd is leading his Democratic challenger, Gina Ortiz Jones, in one of the country’s most competitive races in this year’s midterm elections, according to a new poll by The New … Continue reading

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Crosstab versus 538

You are familiar with the Congressional race projections from G. Elliott Morris at The Crosstab, which I’ve noted here and here. He uses a probabilistic model for each district. Which as it happens is also the approach taken by FiveThirtyEight … Continue reading

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Trump’s Texas beneficiaries

Interesting. Six Texas Republican in Congress received a show of financial support from their party’s leader this week. President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign announced Thursday that it was donating the maximum contribution possible to around 100 House and Senate Republican … Continue reading

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The meta-campaign for Senate

Let’s talk about what we talk about when we talk about the Senate campaign. It’s the most backhanded of compliments. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for U.S. Senate has caught so much fire throughout the state that the new favorite … Continue reading

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