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October, 2012:

Are Texas Latinos like Latinos elsewhere or not?

Oct 31st, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Latino Decisions bemoans a disconnect between its poll numbers for Latino voters and what it’s seeing in the crosstabs of other recent national polls.

In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled “Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote – Again!” in which they argued that polls across California failed to accurately account for Latino voters in their samples, and that pre-election polls statewide were fraught with errors as a result.  Pachon and de la Garza argued that “mainstream” pollsters failed to account for Latinos for three primary reasons: 1) their sample sizes of Latinos were far too small; 2) their Latinos samples were not representative of the Latino population within the state; and 3) they were not interviewing Latinos in Spanish at the correct proportions.  THIS WAS 14 YEARS AGO (yes I am screaming).

In 2010 Gary Segura and I wrote that not much had changed and polls continued to mis-represent the Latino vote.  It is now well-known that polls in Nevada had small, unrepresentative and biased samples of Latinos, leading them to entirely miss Harry Reid’s 5-point lead over Sharron Angle.  Two weeks ago, Nate Silver wrote at 538 that some polls seem to be continuing the same mistakes and under-counting and mis-counting Latino voters, which he had originally picked up, and wrote about the day after the 2010 midterms.  Around the same time some new polls started appearing in states like Nevada and Florida with bizarre data for Latino voters – Obama only had an 8 point lead among Nevada Latinos, and Romney was actually ahead among Latinos in Florida.  Really?

No.

And now the worst offenders might be the newest batch of national polls are attempting to estimate the national Obama-Romney horse race numbers. Monday October 22, Monmouth University released a poll in which Romney leads Obama 48% to 45%. Among Latinos, they report Obama leads by just 6 points – 48% to 42%.  These numbers are such extreme outliers that even Romney campaign surrogates would have a hard time believing them.  While Monmouth is the most recent, there have been many national polls with equally faulty numbers among Latinos.

Keep that 48 to 42 number in your head and let’s compare across a variety of recent polls of Latino voters.  As a matter of self-interest, we’ll start with four recent impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking polls in October.  The last four polls released by IM/LD have found the Latino vote nationally at 71-20; 67-23; 72-20; 73-21.  Don’t like those? NBC/Telemundo have released two polls in October of Latinos, putting the race at 70-25, and 70-20 just before that. And then there was the Pew Hispanic Center poll 10 days ago which had Obama 69-21 over Romney, and just before that CNN did a poll of Latinos putting the national vote at 70-25.  Okay – that’s eight national polls of Latino voters in the month of October and the average across all eight is 70.3% for Obama to 21.9% for Romney.

They’re currently predicting a three to one margin among Latino voters for Obama, which would significantly exceed his 2008 performance. While it should be noted that not everyone buys their numbers, it has also been the case that traditional pollsters blew it in Nevada in 2010 by underestimating the Latino vote. As always, we’ll get an objective answer to this question soon enough.

What I want to know, of course, is how will this affect Texas? Specifically, if it’s the case that the LD folks are right, are the pollsters here making the same mistake? Here’s a summary of the most recent Texas polls, with numbers given for the subsample of Latino respondents:


Pollster                Obama   Romney
======================================
Latino Decisions Avg       70       22
YouGov                     61       35
Lyceum                     62       32
Wilson Perkins             66       32

These numbers are off from the LD polling average, but not that far off. It’s plausible that they are accurate, but given the very small sample sizes it’s also plausible that they are understating Obama’s support here in Texas. The data is just very noisy and hard to get a handle on. The 2008 numbers in Texas quite clearly show that Obama underperformed the Democratic average in heavily Latino areas. Some of that might have been lingering love for Hillary Clinton, but regardless the Republican Party, both nationally and in Texas, has done a lot to alienate Latino voters, and the numbers reflect that. None of the national outfits that track Latino voters have anything specific to say about Texas Latinos. The ImpreMedia/Latino Decision tracking poll consists of “300 completed interviews with Latino voters across all 50 states”. The most recent NBC Telemundo poll had no data breakdown that I could find. The most recent Pew Hispanic Center poll is “based on a nationally representative bilingual telephone survey of 1,765 Latino adults, including 903 registered voters”. Intriguingly, they say that while Obama leads 65% to 23% in nine battleground states, he has a larger 70% to 21% lead elsewhere, which in that case includes Texas.

Admittedly, Texas Republicans, at least at the administrative level, are aware of the issues and have worked to court Latino voters, with some success. I am certainly not dismissing the idea that they will get more votes here from Latino voters than the GOP will in other states. Still, as far as I can tell nobody is specifically polling Texas Latinos, and there will be no exit polling done in Texas this year, which will leave a hole in the data set. I have some thoughts as to how I might approach this question after the election, but that will have to wait. For now, the answer to the question that inspired this post is “I just don’t know”. Stace has more.

Eight billion dollars

Oct 31st, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

That’s how much is needed per year to make public education whole.

Lynn Moak

Lynn Moak told state District Judge John Dietz that it will take more than $8 billion a year in additional money to get students on target to graduate and to meet new college and career readiness standards. About 150,000 9th-grade students, or 47 percent of last year’s freshman high school class, are not on track to graduate, according to the state’s more rigorous academic standards, Moak told the court.

“We are in a current crisis. The crisis gets worse in the future,” Moak said during a break in the hearing. “The crisis is sufficient now to demand action.”

[…]

Moak told Dietz it will take about $6 billion in additional money per year to adequately educate Texas students, on top of restoring $2.65 billion per year in education cuts that lawmakers made last year to help balance the budget.

“If we don’t see improvement, you will see even larger numbers of students at risk of not being able to graduate,” Moak told the judge, who said he planned to grill policy experts on both sides.

[…]

The new accountability standards are hitting low-income students the hardest. Only 40 percent of them have passed all of the 9th grade tests, which are required for high school graduation.

The number of low-income students increases each year and now makes up more than 60 percent of Texas’ 5 million K-12 public school enrollment. Low-income students generally cost more to educate because many arrive in kindergarten or first grade with less-developed vocabularies and other skills than children from middle- and upper-income families.

Republican legislators last year cut $4 billion from public education formulas and another $1.3 billion in special grants, such as full-day Pre K programs for low-income children and student success initiatives for tutoring and summer school programs to help struggling students.

Moak said he could not assess the impact on schools and students.

“I do not know of any significant legislative review to determine if these programs were not needed or were not producing good results,” he said.

Spending per student in Texas peaked at $7,415 in 2009, and has dropped to $6,293 in 2013, Moak said.

I don’t expect there to be any significant legislative review. I don’t think the authors of these cuts want to know what their effect was. The Statesman notes that while only 40 percent of low-income kids are passing the required tests, 69% of non-economically disadvantaged students are passing. You can expect that gap to grow.

All this came from direct testimony – the state had not had the chance to cross-examine Moak as of the writing of those stories – so there will likely be more of these depressing numbers to come. The Moak, Casey website is a pretty good resource for following the trial on a blow-by-blow basis. Here’s an interesting tidbit from their embedded Twitter feed: “Moak: from 10-11 to 11-12 school year, 26.5k fewer teachers and staff while Texas schools added 44.5k students #schoolfinancetrial #txlege”. With numbers like that, what happened next should not surprise us.

If no one owns the problem then no one will fix it

Oct 31st, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Reading this Chron story about the problem of voter registrations done via the Department of Public Safety, it’s clear why this is an ongoing issue.

Still the only voter ID anyone should need

Neither the DPS nor the secretary of state tracks motor voter complaints. Nor can state officials say whether any individual offices or workers process abnormally low numbers of new drivers’ voter applications, DPS officials said.

Unexplained dips sometimes show up in monthly motor voter registration statistics, the Chronicle found in its analysis of registration data from the secretary of state. For example, only 41 Fort Bend voters registered or updated registrations via the DPS in May 2012 – compared with 913 in April and 1,402 in June, according to data gathered by the secretary of state.

Spokesmen for DPS and the secretary of state recommended that anyone who fails to get their voting cards within 30 days after attempting to register call state or local election officials.

[…]

Former Harris County clerk Beverly Kaufman often heard similar complaints during her years overseeing elections. “The voter registration end of the deal is not a priority of the clerks,” Kaufman said. “It sounds to me like the secretary of state could play a key role in getting everyone around the table and addressing that issue.”

[Fort Bend County Voter Registrar John] Oldham said he’s long been concerned about voter confusion over a two-step process that voters use when they renew their drivers’ license via a DPS website, which then links them separately to the secretary of state site to update their voter registration.

He said he hasn’t heard as many complaints from voters who attempted to register in person at a DPS office, though he dealt with similar issues back when he worked on elections in Illinois.

“The acceptance of voter registration among (state) agencies varies a lot because most of them don’t want to do it,” he said. “It’s an annoyance to them – some are excited about it, some don’t care … you have to assume they’re doing it. Because it’s the law.”

Very simply, nobody owns this. The DPS and the Secretary of State don’t see it as a priority, or they’d at least be able to comment on why the number of registrations processed can vary so wildly from month to month. Rick Perry has no reason to care about this, so he’s sure not going to make them make it a priority. The best that could happen at this time would be for a legislator who has the ability to stick it to DPS or the SOS in the budget to take this up as a cause and bludgeon these two agencies into doing an audit or something. But until a Secretary of State is appointed who wants to fix this and implement a better process with better technology – and fight for the budgetary means to do it – we’ll hear the same stories in 2014 and 2016.

Mapping oil usage

Oct 31st, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
4 comments

From the Natural Resources Defense Council

America buys 18.8 million barrels of petroleum products every day, accounting for more than 20% of all global usage. This can drain roughly $1 billion on average every day out of the economy. This oil use also accounts for more than a quarter of the heat-trapping carbon pollution emitted by various sources in the U.S.

The Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters developed an interest in a more detailed understanding for the causes of our addiction. Specifically, we were curious about which geographic areas were most oil dependent, and thus, driving the country’s oil addiction the most.

First, we looked at all the total 2010 oil consumption in every county in the United States. We visualized that oil consumption in the map below.

gasoline consumption map.JPG

We can determine the nation’s oil addiction “hot spots” based on the figures plotted in the map above. It turns out a disproportionately small number of counties in metropolitan regions drive the nation’s oil use. In fact, just 108 counties out of the nation’s 3,144, or about 3.5% of the total consume more than 10% of the nation’s oil. This suggests that we should target policies and practices aimed at reducing oil dependence to a small geographic portion of the nation.

Consumption per person in these top oil-guzzling counties can give help further with targeting; those counties with high per-capita consumption levels afford the biggest opportunities for reductions. For example, Los Angeles County’s population is much larger than Dallas County’s, on average each person consumed much less in the former. If the per capita consumption in the latter were halved, while still higher than the average Los Angeleno it could save more than a half-million gallons of gasoline a year! 

Top 10 Counties Driving Our Oil Addiction

RankingofCounties.JPG*Note: The Missouri figures stood out as an outlier in the data set, possibly due to poor or inconsistent reporting so both on the map and in this table the numbers should be taken with a giant grain of salt.

On the other hand the Houston area and Dallas area are particularly addicted to oil, both in total and per person use. To find out more about where your county stacks up in this picture, click here to access and use a cool googlemap designed by friends at the Sierra Club.

I went looking for this after spotting this Express News story and figuring there had to be more to it than that. DC Streetsblog adds on to the conversation, but I have to agree with their commenters that per capita consumption is the better way to think of this. Still, it’s useful information and a reminder that another spike in gas prices will have a greater effect on the Houston area than other parts of the country. A growth strategy geared towards more and more development of the exurbs just isn’t going to be sustainable in the long term.

Draft Julian?

Oct 30th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Who wants to see Julian Castro run for Governor in 2014? His fellow Bexar County Democrats, at least.

Mayor Julian Castro

Bexar County Democratic Party Chairman Manuel Medina launched a social media movement last week to draft Castro for the 2014 Texas governor’s race.

Medina, who unseated former party Chairwoman Choco Meza in May, describes the push as an attempt to capitalize on Castro’s ascendant national profile and create grass-roots momentum for a Castro candidacy.

“This was our (party) initiative, 100 percent, because we believe he’s the future of the state,” said Medina, a native of Mexico who runs a lucrative polling company in Panama.

Medina said the idea was hatched by local Democratic Party precinct chairs. The party chairman unveiled a “draft Castro” website (draftcastro4gov.com), Facebook page, and Twitter account on Oct. 9.

That night, he introduced the draft campaign to the party’s County Executive Committee, and says it was greeted with “thunderous applause” by committee members.

Dante Small, a committee member and president of the Bexar County Young Democrats, said party members are excited at the mere suggestion of a Castro gubernatorial campaign.

“Having him run for governor would galvanize Democrats and Latino voters in this state,” Small said.

Whether you like Henry or Cecile, you have to admit this is intriguing. Burka makes his usual argument that the state will not be Democratic enough by 2014. I’d like to see what this year’s results look like before I draw any conclusions about 2014, but it’s hard to argue anyway. For his own part, Castro has been pretty consistent about wanting to serve as Mayor of San Antonio through 2017, when he would be term-limited out. Again, hard to argue with that.

But there are two things I’d like to note for your consideration. One is that it’s awfully hard to tell what might happen in a future election year, and that prognostications more than a cycle away are completely useless. Sure, Texas is highly likely to be more Democratic in 2018 than it is in 2014, but who knows who might be on the Republican ticket that year, and who knows what kind of evolution may have taken place in the GOP by then. Put it this way: Would you rather run against Rick Perry in 2014, or some unknown person in 2018? Maybe that person would be George P. Bush or some other golden child/rising star that you don’t see coming and could go toe to toe in the charisma/buzz department with anyone? Sure, Rick Perry might not run in 2014, and if he does run he might get taken out in the primary by Greg Abbott. Last I checked, life came with no guarantees. Point is, that’s as true for 2018 as it is for 2014.

Item two is Castro’s stated desire to serve as Mayor of San Antonio through 2017 if the voters there will have him. It’s admirable that he wants to finish the job that he sees before him, but I am reminded of the case of the last Mayor with statewide ambitions: Bill White. I know some people who thought White should have run for Governor in 2006, after his first term and runaway re-election as Mayor of Houston. At the time, I thought that was crazy. White had made a promise to the voters of Houston, and breaking it would surely be used against him. He had a job to do here, and still had four years in which to do it. Surely he could run in 2010, when things would be more favorable to the Dems than 2006, right? We know how that turned out. In retrospect, I have to think that White could have beaten Perry in 2006. Forty percent of the vote would have done it, and surely White could have raised the money to bring out or hold together enough of the Democratic vote to win. I mean, Democratic Land Commissioner candidate Valinda Hathcox got more votes than Perry did. But more than that, most of White’s main accomplishments as Mayor came in his first term. Even more so, the main bad thing that happened during White’s tenure, the murder of HPD officer Rodney Johnson by an undocumented immigrant, happened after his first term. That’s one attack ad that could not have been run against him had he run in 2006. I’m fully aware that hindsight is 20-20. All I’m saying here is that “finishing the job” may not be a positive factor in the end. You can’t be sure that what is to come later will be better than what’s coming next. It’s a leap of faith no matter how you look at it. I have no idea what the right answer for Julian Castro will be. I just wish him well in deciding it for himself.

Patrick teases his school choice proposals

Oct 30th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

He doesn’t want to call it “vouchers”, but if it walks like a duck…

“If there’s one message that I want to send, it’s that I want to champion public education,” said Patrick, the new chairman of the Senate Public Education Committee.

Whether the education community is ready to embrace Patrick in that role is another matter.

Through his chairmanship and a recent alliance with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, he has the powerful platform he once lacked. His ambitions are pinned on expanding school choice in the state’s public education system. The plan is expected to include vouchers for private schools, a policy previously opposed by every major education association in the state and many within his own party.

Patrick declined to discuss the details of his proposal, which he said he intended to announce before Thanksgiving along with Dewhurst. But he said the legislation would be broader than many might think.

“When people attack me on vouchers, I look at the word voucher as some people see it like I look at a rotary telephone. It’s outdated,” he said. “When we talk about choice today, it’s the choice to choose schools within a district, potentially across district lines. It’s charter schools. It’s virtual schools. It’s online learning. It’s the secular and religious schools in the private sector.”

I suppose anything is possible, but I sure don’t see much in Patrick’s record to support a claim of championing public education. Patrick has relentlessly championed property tax cuts, which has directly led to the funding crisis the state faces today, and public education bore the brunt of that last session. You can’t champion public education without championing a sufficient revenue stream for public education.

But that’s an argument that isn’t going to be resolved any time soon. I want to examine the bits of policy Patrick mentions. Let’s take them one at a time.

– “When we talk about choice today, it’s the choice to choose schools within a district, potentially across district lines.” I don’t know how it is in other districts, but in HISD we already have a fair amount of freedom to pick a school. There may be an application process and some prerequisites to qualify for a specific school, and you may not get your preferred choice, but that’s life. As long as the schools have the resources they need to handle the demand for their services, I have no problems at all with this. As for attending a school in a different district, I’d need to know more. I don’t have any philosophical objections to this, but I am concerned about how the funding would work. If I decide I want to send my kids to, say, Clements High School in Fort Bend County, I’d be sending them to a school whose district doesn’t get the benefit of my property taxes. What mechanism would there be to ensure that districts don’t get swamped by kids outside their borders, and to ensure they can handle the load they do get?

– “It’s charter schools.” I don’t have any problems with the idea of helping out charter schools, but we need to be very clear about what that means, because there are acceptable ways of doing that and there are bad ways of doing that. The previously-floated idea of using the Permanent School Fund as a source for building capital for charter schools is a bad idea, since it runs counter to the stated purpose of the PSF, which is supposed to be invested for maximal return. Shifting funds from public schools to charter schools in a zero-sum fashion is a bad idea. If Patrick wants to find a suitable and stable funding source for charter schools, I’m open to that. Let me hear the details and we can go from there.

– “It’s virtual schools. It’s online learning.” I am deeply skeptical of this. This sounds more like buzzwords than proven craft. While there is value in online learning as a supplement, and a virtual classroom is better than none, I think we’re a long way away from this being the best way to go about doing education. My feeling is that this is the sort of thing that will be pushed as a way to cut costs, without regard to effectiveness. I’m very wary of anything that falls under this classification.

– “It’s the secular and religious schools in the private sector.” And to this I say No. I refer to what Ronald Trowbridge wrote for my opening position. I believe this is an inappropriate use of public funds, and as we have already seen, there are plenty of other ways to promote “school choice” that don’t involve private schools. Let’s talk about those things and see what we can do with them.

UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Oct 30th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune.

Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The survey of likely voters found that 55 percent support Romney while 39 percent support the incumbent. The remaining 6 percent said they support someone else.

The survey results illustrate the continuing dominance of the GOP in Texas — Republican John McCain got 55.5 percent of the Texas vote in 2008, to Obama’s 43.7 percent — and illuminate a significant gap in Texans’ feelings about national and state officeholders and government.

“At the top of the ticket, in the big marquee races, there are no surprises,” said Jim Henson, who teaches government at the University of Texas at Austin, heads the Texas Politics Project there and co-directs the poll. “We see the basic structure of the state, in terms of partisanship, pretty stable.”

Numbers in the U.S. Senate race were similar to those in the top contest, with Republican Ted Cruz holding 54 percent of the support to Democrat Paul Sadler’s 39 percent, according to the poll. John Jay Myers, the Libertarian candidate, had 3 percent, and Green Party candidate David Collins had 2 percent.

[…]

Republican Christi Craddick held the lead in the contested race for Texas Railroad Commission, with 50 percent of the support to Democrat Dale Henry’s 36 percent.

“What you have in these results is a pretty decent idea of what a Democrat with warm blood and a pulse can get in Texas,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of political science at UT-Austin.

Actually, I suspect that what these results give is about five to eight points below what a Democrat with warm blood and a pulse can get in a non-2010 year, but as they say, the only poll that matters is taking place right now. The poll’s summary is here and the description of its methodology is here. I don’t think the connection to YouGov had clicked with me until I looked at that. This result is similar to but not the same as the recent YouGov result we saw. For comparison, here’s the May UT/TT poll that had it at Romney 46 – Obama 38 among registered voters but 55-35 when their ridiculously restrictive “likely voter” screen was applied, and their February poll back when the nominee was not yet decided. Of somewhat peculiar interest is that the February poll asked respondents how they voted in 2008, and the result was McCain 46 – Obama 39. The May poll had no such question, but this one did, and the result there was McCain 43 – Obama 40. That would translate to a 52-48 McCain win if you filter out the “other” and “didn’t vote” respondents – and by the way, if you simply used these people as your “likely voter” screen for this poll, it would be a sample size of about 665, considerably larger than the 540 actually used. That suggests two possibilities to me: One, Obama has lost a number of supporters from 2008. The Wilson Perkins poll suggests that possibility as well. And two, the “likely voter” screen they used screened out a disproportionate number of Obama supporters. The overall sample is 65% white, which is perfectly reasonable, but we don’t know what the screened sample looks like. If it’s anything like that crappy Lyceum poll, with it’s 5% African-American share, you can see how things might get wacky. For what it’s worth, Greg says that Harris County’s early vote pattern is suggestive of 2008 so far. You can make up your own mind. As I said, we’ll have a fact check on this soon enough.

Endorsement watch: The Statesman gets in the game

Oct 30th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

In addition to their Sunday endorsement of Paul Sadler, the Statesman made up for lost time last week by finally getting around to making endorsements in various races. Among their first was a nice recommendation of John Courage.

John Courage

Texas Senate, District 25

District 25, which stretches from South Austin to northern San Antonio and Bexar County, is a Republican district, and Donna Campbell, a tea party favorite who crushed incumbent state Sen. Jeff Wentworth in the runoff, is heavily favored to win Nov. 6. Nonetheless, voters in District 25 should put aside their partisan inclinations and consider the alternative: Democrat John Courage.

Courage, an Air Force veteran and San Antonio schoolteacher, might be a longshot, but he knows the district better than Campbell, a recent transplant. His experience in education would make him a strong advocate for public schools, but education is not the only issue where he has the advantage over Campbell. From reforming the margins tax to transportation, from water to the electrical grid, Courage is the more informed, better-qualified candidate.

The Senate really will be a less functional place next year if Campbell wins as she is heavily favored to do. In the same editorial as this endorsement of Courage is one for the new HD136 as well:

Matt Stillwell

Texas House, District 136

District 136 is a new state House district that includes Cedar Park, Leander, Brushy Creek and a substantial part of Northwest Austin. Anchored in Williamson County, District 136 appears to be safe for the Republican in this race, Tony Dale, an Army veteran and member of the Cedar Park City Council. He’s a strong candidate who has a deep affection for his community and no doubt would serve his district’s residents well. But in a close call, we’re supporting Democrat Matt Stillwell.

An insurance agent who lives in Northwest Austin, Stillwell’s deep concern about the future of public education motivated his run for the Legislature. He says he’ll fight for public schools if elected and will do what he can to roll back punitive, high-stakes testing. He also understands how seriously underfunded the state’s roads are and how cuts to roads and highways, along with cuts in other areas, have not reduced spending or tax burdens but merely shifted costs and debt to towns and cities. He focuses on fiscally sound, gimmick-free remedies that would benefit District 136 in the long term.

As I said before, I think this race has the potential to be closer than people think. The shift in voter behavior from 2004 to 2008 was huge, and the district is likely to have evolved further since then. How much I don’t know, and of course it could have changed back. Stillwell is low on cash, but he’s been competitive in fundraising and hasn’t been greatly outspent, at least so far. I just think there may be more to this one than what the numbers might suggest.

After that, the Statesman opined on the statewide judicial races.

You may recall that Sharon Keller, chief justice of the Court of Criminal Appeals – the state’s highest criminal appellate court – was reprimanded after 300 lawyers filed complaints alleging dereliction of duty. The complaints stem from an incident involving attempts by lawyers representing a death row inmate to file motions after business hours. Keller told the lawyers that the clerk’s office closed at 5 p.m. and the inmate was executed later that night.

The incident garnered national attention and ended with Keller being reprimanded by the State Commission on Judicial Conduct. She appealed the reprimand and it was ultimately lifted. It was a victory but not a vindication because the specially selected court of review said a reprimand was not included in the options available to the Commission on Judicial Conduct in disciplining a judge.

Some might call that a technicality, but that’s ultimately what the law is — a collection of technicalities.

Then there was the case of Nathan Hecht, who is considered the intellectual leader of the Texas Supreme Court’s most conservative wing. Hecht was reprimanded for lobbying to confirm the nomination of Harriet Miers to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2005. That reprimand was also lifted, but the drama didn’t end there. Hecht raised eyebrows when he not only solicited contributions to pay the legal fees incurred in battling the complaint but asked a couple of friendly legislators to file bills that would have allowed him to use state funds to pay those bills. When state Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, and former state Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, learned that Hecht was soliciting contributions, they pulled their bills down

That was not the end of it. Hecht was fined $29,000 by the Texas Ethics Commission in 2008, declaring the discount extended to him on those legal fees was an improper campaign contribution. The matter has yet to be resolved.

Keller also tried unsuccessfully to have the state pick up the tab for legal fees and said she paid them out of savings and took out a loan.

[…]

Michele Petty

Democrat Keith Hampton opposes Keller in the general election. Michele Petty, a San Antonio lawyer, challenges Hecht. As Democrats, both face an uphill battle.

Hampton brings an impressive legal resume to the race as well as experience as a statewide candidate. He is known and respected for his criminal defense work and has notched a long bibliography of scholarly legal works.

Hampton is amply qualified both academically and ethically to serve on the court, but more importantly to carry a message that Texans demand a judiciary free of taint or bias.

The same standards should apply in the Supreme Court as well. There is no denying Hecht’s ability, talent and background.

Petty, on the other hand, is an unknown but is eager and is motivated. Her demeanor and approach is a marked and clear contrast to the more polished, patrician Hecht.

But Petty’s academic training is impressive. She was Baylor Law’s top graduate in 1984 and a member of the San Antonio Women’s Hall of Fame.

She understands well that she is running uphill. Win or lose, the state owes Petty its thanks for the effort. An airing of unpleasant history may save us a repetition of it.

It’s not quite an endorsement of Hampton and Petty, in the sense that the Statesman never actually uses words like “we endorse” or “we recommend a vote”, but they do say that “we all lose” if Hampton and Petty lose, so it’s pretty clear what they intend. Hampton, of course, has been sweeping up endorsements left and right, but as far as I an tell this is a first for Petty, about whom you can learn more here. Keller is a much easier target than Hecht, whose sins are more garden-variety, but some new blood would do both courts a lot of good.

Early voting, one week in

Oct 29th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
3 comments

We have completed one full week of early voting, and through Sunday a total of 362,827 people had voted in person, with an additional 53,131 ballot being cast by mail, for a grand total of 415,958. The updated spreadsheet is here for your perusal. For comparison, there were 314,252 in person ballots cast through Sunday, 2008, so this year represents a 15.5% increase in non-absentee early votes. Another way to look at it is that there were 1,892,65registered voters in 2008, and this year there are 2,003,436 registered voters, which is 5.8% more. If the increase in early voting turnout were driven entirely by the increase in voter registration, we would have had 332,479 early votes by now. The actual total of 362,827 is therefore an increase of 9.1% over what might have been expected.

Again, all this suggest what we are seeing is the new normal. The totals are high-water marks, but they’re not a quantum leap like what we saw in 2008. It’s not out of the question to me that we could see the pace of early voting slack off a bit next week, with 2012 numbers losing some of their lead over 2008 numbers. I’m confident that 2012 will have more early voting, even accounting for registration growth, but the percentage margin may be less at the end of this week than it is right now. Just a feeling, I have no objective evidence for this. We’ll see.

One more thing to talk about is not just how many people are voting early, but which people are voting early. In 2004, 45.5% of all straight-ticket Republican votes and 43.8% of George W. Bush’s votes were cast early, while 40.7% of both straight-ticket Democratic votes and John Kerry’s votes were cast early. In 2008, those numbers were 61.6% of straight-ticket Republican votes and 59.4% of John McCain’s votes, and 66.6% of straight-ticket Democratic votes and 66.4% of Barack Obama’s votes were early. I suspect in the end that the share of each party’s early votes will be about the same, and at least as high as the Democratic share was in 2008. And, as foolish as it is to make predictions this far out, I suspect we’ll see the same sort of behavior in 2016.

Lampson-mentum

Oct 29th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

I always thought that with Nick Lampson in the race, CD14 would be competitive. Looks like national perception is catching up to that belief.

Nick Lampson

Texas Republicans are ringing the alarm over a House race that had seemed a safe bet to remain Republican.

The reason for worry is the third-quarter fundraising and spending totals that recently came to light in the race for Texas’ 14th district. Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) both outraised and has far more in cash on hand than the favorite to win the seat, state Rep. Randy Weber (R).

“I’d say there is a panic button that somebody, somewhere is hitting,” a Texas GOP consultant said.

Lampson outraised Weber by about $50,000 in the third quarter, but the greater concern is that the Democrat had about $422,000 in cash on hand, while Weber only had $55,000.

Late last week there was a rally with Bill Clinton to get out to vote for Lampson, and a Chron overview of the race that calls it a tossup as well. Overall, Lampson and Weber have raised about the same total amount for the cycle, though Weber had to raise a fair amount of that for the primary. A recent poll released by the Lampson campaign showed him trailing by three, but with a majority among voters who were already familiar with him, and his campaign had not yet begun its main advertising push. That’s where the cash-on-hand disparity, and the concern by Republicans about it, come into play. Given the demographics of this district, it’s not clear to me that Lampson does any better in a high-turnout Presidential year than he would in a lower-turnout off year, but I do agree with Greg that if Lampson can run up the score in the Beaumont area, he can win. Here’s hoping.

The Heights Wal-Mart is now open

Oct 29th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
3 comments

On the plus side, the world did not come to an end. On the minus side, it’s still a lousy location for a Wal-Mart and a giant missed opportunity for better, more urban-oriented development.

For nearly 2½ years, Heights-area residents fought against one of the largest corporations in the world, employing yard signs, meeting with City Council members, even filing a lawsuit. It was an intense emotional effort to stop Walmart from opening a store just outside the Heights, its first inside Loop 610.

In the end, Walmart won. Its 153,000-square-foot Supercenter opened Friday at Yale and Koehler streets.

Those living nearby have mixed feelings about the store, ranging from anger to apathy, with some just waiting to see if any of the naysayers’ concerns come to fruition.

But for some opponents, the fight is far from lost. They say their cause always extended beyond just stopping the development of the Walmart.

“It was if you’re going to develop the neighborhood, do it right,” said Rob Task, president of Responsible Urban Development for Houston, a nonprofit born from the controversy over the Supercenter.

This earlier Chron story and The Leader have more on what’s on the inside of this store, and on the Studemont Kroger a mile or so due east that opened the same day. I can’t say I noticed a difference in traffic on Studemont on Friday, but it’s been awful around there for some time now, so it’s hard to say how much worse it could get. We’ll never know what could have been here, we can just hope that what we got isn’t as bad as we’ve feared it will be.

Endorsement watch: The scoreboard for Sadler

Oct 29th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

More endorsements for Paul Sadler from the past week. Here’s the El Paso Times:

Paul Sadler

We need a U.S. senator who will work on border issues with our members of Congress in Dists. 16 and 23. We are endorsing Democrats Beto O’Rourke and Pete Gallego in those districts, respectively.

We like that Sadler, since leaving the Texas Legislature in 2002, has worked to promote clean and affordable energy. In our case, that would be solar energy. We have more than 300 days of bright sunlight each year and should be one of the nation’s hot spots for developing new methods to create the renewable energy that can be harnessed from the sun.

Sadler is a strong advocate for U.S. military veterans, of which there are some 70,000 in this immediate area.

We believe Sadler will work with our elected congressmen to bring a full-fledged VA hospital to El Paso. Sadler advocates increased VA funding.

We also like Sadler’s views on health care. He staunchly opposes efforts to allow insurance companies to deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions and to drop policy holders who get sick. He says politicians should stay out of women’s health care.

A strong El Paso vote for Paul Sadler will be a loud vote heard throughout Texas.

We are an important part of this large state, and we believe Paul Sadler is the best choice to carry our message in the U.S. Senate.

And the San Angelo Standard-Times:

If there was a “golden era” of Texas politics, it was the 1990s, when the two major political parties shared power and smart, competent leaders worked cooperatively to solve problems.

One of the key players of that time was Paul Sadler. A Democrat from Henderson, in East Texas, he joined former San Angelo state Rep. Rob Junell and other lawmakers who set aside party and ideological chest-beating and tackled big issues in serious fashion. They were equally committed under Democratic Gov. Ann Richards and Republican Gov. George W. Bush.

That record leads the Standard-Times editorial board to recommend Sadler as the next U.S. senator from Texas.

We are impressed with Republican Ted Cruz’s rise to prominence and count his primary win over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst as one of the most remarkable upsets in Texas political history. However, the tone of his campaign has been combative and divisive, and precisely the opposite is needed now in the U.S. Senate.

I’m not quite that misty-eyed about the 90s in Texas politics, but whatever works for you. The EPT endorsement was noted by Texas Monthly, which observed that Sadler was defeating Cruz in newspaper endorsements around the state; they quoted this post of mine in making that observation. The San Angelo endorsement came after they posted, as did another ringing recommendation of Sadler by the better-late-than-never Austin American-Statesman.

Since his primary runoff victory over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Republicans have considered Ted Cruz a rising star in national politics. With the growing adoration have come guest spots on news talk shows and a prime-time speech at the Republican National Convention.

This is all well and good for Cruz, but Texas needs a capable legislator. And in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Democrat Paul Sadler is the candidate with the impressive legislative record. He’s our choice for U.S. Senate.

[…]

We endorsed Cruz over Dewhurst in the Republican primary because we found his passion for policy and his willingness to engage on the issues refreshing. Cruz is sharp; he keeps you on your toes. We respect his role in the debate over the size and power of the federal government. But we disagree with him on many issues.

And Cruz, the state’s former solicitor general who served in the George W. Bush administration, has no experience as a legislator. Unlike Sadler, Cruz knows little about the nuts and bolts of writing and negotiating legislation. Sadler, however, understands that reaching compromise on bills involves difficult give-and-take work. If Washington is to move past the obstruction of the past several years, compromise cannot take place when it is defined as Cruz defines it: only when the other side sees things your way.

Cruz is ambitious. There is nothing wrong with ambition, but Texas doesn’t need a senator who will stick to extremes to win invitations to the Sunday morning talk shows. We need a senator whose best work takes place on Capitol Hill paying attention to the hard details that go into representing the needs of a growing state and strengthening our nation’s future. We need a legislator with experience and skill, one who will seek out responsible, pragmatic solutions to the state’s and nation’s problems.

We therefore recommend Paul Sadler for U.S. Senate.

Not too shabby. All this stands in sharp contrast to the Chron’s limp and misguided endorsement of Cruz, which they base on the hope he will be transformed by the Magic Bipartisanship Fairy into something he isn’t. I’ll say again, all things considered, this is a strong statement of just how outside the mainstream Cruz really is.

Weekend link dump for October 28

Oct 28th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Obsessing about “Mark Trail” is a game the whole family can play.

Adultery is the bigger sin even when there are plenty of other big sins to choose from.

Why “follow the money” is so often good advice.

“What the hell are we gonna do with photos in the modern age?”

“Maybe one day, with the support of some righteous paupers, a one-percenter will break the money line, and get a job at 7-11 or Denny’s. That may turn things around, and over time more and more of them will be able to enjoy the same living conditions, job security, and health care as the rest of us. I certainly look forward to it. The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”

A really good discussion about diversity, inclusiveness, sororities, and progressive values.

Nic Cage as Nicolae Carpathia?!? I too would pay cash money to go and see that in a movie theater.

A skeptic goes ghost hunting.

“If all you want to do is be a creep, then please don’t drag free speech into it. Free speech really does deserve better.”

You’re never too old to do something ridiculous.

“The hackishness is strong in this one.”

As go beer sales, so goes the economy.

Watching TV doesn’t actually rot your brain, as long as you don’t overdo it.

Vote fraud by impersonation does not exist. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar.

An open letter to Ann Coulter. He’s way nicer to her than she deserves.

You can’t make puppies yawn. Assuming you wanted to do that, anyway.

Have a green Halloween this year.

An open letter to Buzz Bissinger. Must be open letters week.

The so-called “CEOs Deficit Manifesto” is just gross self-interest masquerading as public statesmanship.

Bad Halloween costumes for your kids.

All elections have consequences, but this election is more consequential for some people than others.

I totally agree that waiting rooms should avoid cable news stations if they have TVs in them.

The Women’s Health Program fight needs to be won at the ballot box

Oct 28th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Right there with them

This was a strange week in the courts for Planned Parenthood and the Women’s Health Program. On Thursday, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals refused to rehear Planned Parenthood’s case against the state over the WHO, meaning that its awful ruling that threw out the original injunction against the state would stand and PP would be barred from the program beginning this week. Then on Friday a new injunction was issued in a state district court in Travis County, in response to claims that the “Affiliate Ban Rule” that bars it from participating in the Women’s Health Program is invalid under Chapter 32 of the Texas human resources code, which makes the Women’s Health Program subject to federal government approval. What that means in conjunction with the federal court ruling is not clear to me.

I won’t be surprised if the state is able to get this injunction tossed as well. I’m not a lawyer, so don’t ask me how they could do that, but I won’t be surprised if they can. At this point, further legal action, whether an appeal to the Supreme Court of the Fifth Circuit ruling or further litigation on other grounds, seems unlikely to work. The Fifth Circuit’s ruling was terrible, but I fear we are stuck with it. But that doesn’t mean the fight is over. It just means we have to take it to another venue, and that venue is the Legislature and the Governor’s office, which is where it was lost in the first place. At this point, either all of the predictions about how badly access to health care will be affected by cutting out Planned Parenthood will come true, or the state will be able to provide a workable replacement for them but at a much higher cost thanks to the loss of federal funds. In either case, there’s a political argument to be made that the Republicans who implemented this policy made a bad choice that wound up causing real harm to thousands of women, all at a greater cost to the taxpayer and in service of an unbending ideology rather than any empirical need. Policy choices can be changed, after all. It’s up to us to create the conditions for such change to happen. I don’t believe we will get relief from the courts, and even if we did Rick Perry and his fellow travelers would find some other way to stick it to women and their health care providers. The best way to deal with that is to deny them the power to pass those laws in the first place. We can’t lose sight of that.

The opening argument against vouchers

Oct 28th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
3 comments

We’ve been hearing about vouchers since Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst named Sen. Dan Patrick to be Chair of the Senate Education Committee, but we haven’t heard – or at least, I haven’t seen – a lot of information about what exactly that would mean. This Chron op-ed by Ronald Trowbridge brings some facts and figures and gives a starting point for engagement on the issue.

A new proposed model now under consideration in Texas is called Taxpayer Savings Grants (TSG). But this model is fatally flawed. First, very few students would be able to use the grants (vouchers) because private-school tuition balances are too expensive. Second, private schools would not have the capacity to enroll large increases in student admissions. Third, grants would also subsidize relatively wealthy students already attending private schools. Four, the model opens the possibility, if not probability, that government subsidies (vouchers) to private schools could come with controlling political strings attached.

Proponents of TSG argue that the public school system would save $3,000 for every student who transfers to a private school and that “just under 7 percent of students would take advantage” of a $5,143 voucher to attend a private school.

Let’s look at the arithmetic. The Texas Education Agency reports that public-school enrollment K-12 in Texas in 2010-11 was 4,933,617 students. Seven percent would total 345,353 students. Private-school enrollment in 2009, reports the National Center for Education Statistics, was 313,360. There is no way private schools would have the capacity to enroll 345,353 more students.

Meanwhile, students already attending private schools would also receive the same $5,143 voucher per student. For 313,360 students already attending private schools, the cost to state government would total $161 million a year.

Here’s another serious problem with TSG: The public student transferring to a private school must pay the difference between the $5,143 voucher and the full price of tuition at the private school. If tuition is, say, $12,000 per year, parents would have to come up with the $6,857 difference. Private-school tuition often runs in the range of $10,000 to $20,000.

What’s more, private schools will do precisely what colleges do when stipends for Pell grants are increased: raise tuition. So the private school will raise tuition to, say, $13,000, and parents will have to pay the difference between $5,143 and $13,000.

Most of the 345,353 students would be priced out of the market. What’s more, 2.9 million school kids are on subsidized-lunch programs. These kids could not even dream of attending a private school.

Trowbridge notes that government funding for something inevitably leads to government meddling in, of not control over, that something, the prospect of which you would think might give people like Dan Patrick pause. I’d add in the concern that this is all just a massive subsidy for religious schools, which will have all kinds of questionable things on their curricula, but only if their religion is of the approved kind. There’s also the question about whether these schools would be subject to the same accountability laws as the public schools, which I suppose also goes to Trowbridge’s point about government money coming with strings attached. I feel quite certain that a response from Sen. Patrick or one of his acolytes will be forthcoming, so we’ll see what they have to say about this.

New passenger rail study

Oct 28th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

We’ll see if this goes anywhere.

The Texas Department of Transportation is launching a two-year, $14 million study of passenger rail service between South Texas and Oklahoma City.

That could mean bringing high-speed rail or, at the least, finding ways to connect the state’s major cities with some type of rail service.

The study also will examine how to fund these projects, which could involve the private sector.

The overall goal is to reduce congestion in Texas, officials said.

But it could be years — and many billions of dollars — before that’s a reality.

The study essentially will give officials and policymakers a strategic plan that federal officials can reference when funding becomes available.

“What it does is it gets Texas caught up, as far as our planning level studies … that would put us in line for future funding for environmental design and construction,” said Jennifer Moczygemba, rail system section director for TxDOT.

TxDOT’s press release is here. Passenger rail through the I-35 corridor makes a lot of sense and should be part of the long-term strategy to improve mobility and fight traffic congestion there, but I’ll wait till something actually happens to get excited about this. The Statesman and Swamplot have more.

Endorsement watch: Wu and Vo

Oct 28th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
5 comments

Clearly I was wrong about the Chron ignoring legislative endorsements, as they now have two more to follow Ann Johnson‘s. First up is an endorsement of Gene Wu to be Rep. Scott Hochberg’s successor in HD137.

Gene Wu

We believe that Democrat Gene Wu has the educational background and passion for policy that make him the best candidate to succeed Hochberg.

A former Harris County assistant district attorney, Wu’s experience isn’t limited to the legal arena. With a master’s in public policy from the University of Texas, Wu worked at the Texas Workforce Commission to improve standards for community colleges and technical schools and served as chief clerk for the House Higher Education Committee. These are particularly pertinent areas of experience, given the importance of building an educated workforce and the education budget battles in Austin.

Wu talks about education policy with the specificity of an experienced politician, arguing for proper student-to-teacher ratios, reforming high-stakes testing and improving vocational training. He also offers high praise for schools like KIPP and YES Prep that create a cultural respect for learning, which can often help students more than anything else.

Wu also has a deep connection to his district, regularly volunteering with the Skills for Living program and tutoring at-risk youth at Sharpstown High School. He exhibits an exhaustive understanding of his home turf and hopes to attract the businesses that will serve and support the middle-class families that are the growing base of the area. This is the sort of forward thinking that voters should want for a district that covers areas like Gulfton and Sharpstown.

The Chron has made three endorsements in HD137, having gone with Joe Madden in the primary and Jamaal Smith in the runoff. This was a testament to the depth and quality of the candidates running in the Democratic primary, as they said at the time. I’d encourage you to go back and listen to the interview I did with Wu for the primary, because the qualities the Chron talks about in this endorsement really came through in that conversation. I’ve no doubt at all that Wu will be an excellent representative.

The Chron also endorsed four-term Rep. Hubert Vo for re-election.

Rep. Hubert Vo

Texas House District 149 is one of the most diverse in the state, covering west Harris County from I-10 south to Alief, including Mission Bend. The Democratic incumbent Hubert Vo, a Vietnamese immigrant, reflects the diversity of his district and is the right choice in this election.

In his past races, Vo stood as an attractive alternative to candidates who embodied some of Texas’ worst policy instincts, such as underfunding government services and leaving available federal dollars on the table. Since his first election to the Texas House in 2004, Vo has fulfilled his promises of working to fully fund CHIP, support education and serve local needs at the Legislature. A reliable defender of these important issues, Vo rightfully points out that budget fights will happen every year due to a structural budget shortfall – the kind that we can’t cut our way out of. Voters should appreciate this sort of honest talk from a politician.

One of Vo’s greatest achievements for his district was the creation of the International Management District, located along Bellaire and Bissonnet between Beltway 8 and Highway 6. This district has allowed for reinvestment in local infrastructure and a dedicated focus on attracting businesses. And the district’s success in improving public safety by contracting with the constable’s office and private security has not only bolstered business but created safer neighborhoods.

I’ve been a fan of Rep. Vo’s since his first run for office in 2004. Good guy, good representative, good fit for his district.

Saturday video break: Every Time You Go Away

Oct 27th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Song #46 on the Popdose Top 100 Covers list is “Every Time You Go Away”, by Hall and Oates and covered by Paul Young. Here’s the original:

Okay, that’s not actually Hall and Oates, but how could I resist Daryl Hall backed by Billy Joel, Bonnie Raitt, and the most amazing flowing-locks-and-sideburn combination since, I don’t know, Nic Cage in “Raising Arizona”. Seriously, who knew Daryl Hall had hair like that? Anyway, here’s the Paul Young cover:

Another fine example of 80s hair, as well as 80s imagery – Ballerinas! Men who might be gangsters! Gratuitous fog! – all rendered in both black and white and color. Pretty good song, too.

Cuts are not increases, no matter how you spin it

Oct 27th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

This is the Chron overview of HD134, which is once again the highest profile legislative race in the county, in part because it’s a referendum on the 2010 election and the cuts to public education funding that resulted from that election.

Ann Johnson

In an area that takes great pride in its schools, [Rep. Sarah Davis] went along with her fellow Republicans and voted for major cuts in education funding.

As a result, District 134 is one of the few House seats believed to be in play. Although Davis has the incumbent’s edge in a Republican-leaning district, the race has become one of the most competitive – and expensive – in the state. Both candidates are spending freely, blanketing the district regularly with mailers.

“We knew there were funding cuts coming down the line for Texas schools,” said Sue Deigaard, a stay-at-home mom, “so, as a community, on a grass-roots level, we organized, we engaged other parents to give Sarah Davis the support as a legislator to say, ‘Hey, as you’re casting your vote on the budget, you have hundreds of parents, 400 petitions, hundreds of letters, phone calls, emails in a district you won by 750 votes.’ ”

Their message, Deigaard said, was “to, basically, give her the support, so that she could vote in a different direction from her party. And, as her record shows, she didn’t do that. So now we have this very motivated base of parents, bipartisan – Republicans and Democrats – who are supporting Ann Johnson.”

Davis, a fiscal conservative who is moderate on social issues, insists that Deigaard and other parents should not have been surprised.

“When I was campaigning, we all, particularly me, were campaigning on a message that we had a $27 billion budget deficit, and we’re going to have to balance the budget,” she said one evening recently. “I am opposed to increasing taxes or finding revenue, and I won, as did a hundred other Republicans, probably campaigning on the exact same message.”

So Davis, who as I have said before is a reliable, down-the-line Republican representative, claims that she campaigned and won on a promise to cut spending in 2010. Which is fine, as far as it goes, except for one small thing: She is now running away from those cuts that she made as fast as she can. Patti Hart calls Davis out for a blatantly dishonest campaign mailer that tries to claim she didn’t do what she actually did.

I called [Scott] McCown to get his reaction after seeing Republican Houston Rep. Sarah Davis’ latest campaign mailer, which claims that her Democratic challenger, attorney Ann Johnson, is spreading fiction in her assertion that Texas Republicans cut $5.4 billion from public education last year. On the cover, Davis invokes the dictionary, sharing this definition of fiction: “A belief or statement that is false, but that is often held to be true because it is expedient to do so.”

To back up her allegation that school budget cuts are a figment of Johnson’s imagination, Davis then asserts that Texas lawmakers actually added $1 billion to our schools. Johnson’s math, she tells us, includes “President Obama’s one-time stimulus money, that simply wasn’t available the following year.”

The mailer goes on to assert, with great umbrage: “So Johnson is blaming Republicans in Austin for what a Democratic President did in Washington. This happens all the time: liberals in Washington throw a bunch of money at programs, and then in later years leave the state to find the money to keep them going.”

In a campaign season full of tall tales, this may be the whopper that tops them all. State lawmakers in 2009 used $3.6 billion in federal stimulus money instead of state dollars to fund public education – essentially supplanting federal support for state support. In 2011, the Legislature added back only $1.6 billion in state money to replace the federal dollars.

To claim that the Legislature “increased” funding to public ed is, as I wrote when Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst made this claim, to have giant amnesia about the stimulus.

Now, Davis is using the state’s 2009 contribution to education as a baseline for comparison to state funding in 2011, and blaming Obama that the dollars fall short. It’s as if Davis is saying, two meals a day is more than what those kids were getting before Uncle Sam stepped in!

This outrageous claim – that Republicans didn’t cut public education funding – has been rated “Pants on Fire” by the newspaper fact-checking service, Politifact, on several occasions this year.

And Politifact’s researchers didn’t rely on the opinions of Democrats, noting that during the legislative session, Senate Education Chairman Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, said: “Nobody wants cuts. But we have to have them.” And House Education Chairman Rob Eissler, R-The Woodlands, predicted the cuts would amount to 4 percent to 5 percent, which he characterized as “not that big a cut.”

The writers’ conclusion: “So, lawmakers ultimately cut public school aid, with key leaders even acknowledging so as those decisions were sealed. To tell constituents otherwise is not only inaccurate, it’s misleading and ridiculous. Pants on Fire!”

Even Hart is understating how egregious this is, because Davis and her fellow Republicans all voted for the House budget that cut $10 billion from public education. It was the Senate’s refusal to accept that budget, and to restore half of the cuts made by the House, that left us with the $5.4 billion in cuts that we got. Try to square that with a claim that Davis “increased” funding to public education.

Maybe none of this will matter. It’s still a Republican-leaning district. Johnson may well not be able to convince enough people what happened and what they need to do about it now. Maybe that day of reckoning isn’t here yet, though if it hasn’t come by the 2014 elections I don’t know when it ever will. Be that as it may, I’m happy to have any campaign be waged on these terms. The more that candidates an officeholders run away from the idea of cutting education funding, the better.

The 85 MPH toll road is now open

Oct 27th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

So far, it seems like the only people on the newly-opened 85 MPH Texas 130 toll road are reporters writing about what it’s like to legally drive that fast.

About an hour after road workers removed the hundreds of bright orange cones blocking the entrances and exits to the new State Highway 130 toll road, I gave the fastest highway in the country a test drive.

From Austin to Seguin, the road has a posted speed limit of 85 mph, a number my speedometer doesn’t reach on a regular basis. On the occasions I have found myself driving that fast, it’s usually been unintentional. I would be moving along on an open stretch of some rural highway, glance down and see the needle higher than I had expected and slightly ease off the gas pedal.

Along with far too many references to a terrible Sammy Hagar song and not enough nods to the best line from Back to the Future, the new toll road has generated a vigorous debate over whether the 85 mph speed limit is just too fast.

A “terrible Sammy Hagar song”? Those are fighting words, my friend. Let’s see if this Chron story is less incendiary.

Within seconds of reaching 85 mph, I hit another milestone without even trying.

90 mph. Just like that.

I didn’t realize how fast 85 mph really is until I started passing everyone else on the road, or when I suddenly had to slow down. There’s not much wiggle room when a car travels those speeds.

[…]

For the next two weeks, drivers can test out the speeds for free. The tolls kick in on Nov. 11; rates will be based on the size of the vehicle, method of payment and how far the vehicle travels.

A Lockhart pastor who wouldn’t give his name because, he said, he didn’t want to make any enemies, described the two-week moratorium on tolls like a pretty woman or an illegal substance. Both lure you in. But a little taste of those high speeds, and you’re hooked:

“It’s gonna be like alcohol,” he said. Soon, you “can’t put that bottle down.”

Caldwell County Precinct 1 Constable Victor “Smitty” Terrell worries about vehicles coming off the toll road to feeder roads with 55 mph speeds.

And don’t get Terrell started on wild hogs and the hazard they pose as they travel in packs. Texas 130 was built in an area where there has been little or no development. That’s meant a lot of wildlife displacement.

He looked at my car and predicted the worst.

“If a couple hundred pound hog went underneath that Honda Civic, and it went on the corner and hit you just right,” he said, “it’d flip you.”

There’s a vivid image for you. Apparently, a couple of hogs have already been hit, but so far no humans have reported injuries as a result.

Finally, for a lighter look at the experience, the Statesman’s Ken Herman tried the new road out in a Smart car.

My car for opening day was a Smart microcar, less than half the length of a Suburban, rented from Car2Go. My dual mission was to be among the first on the nation’s fastest highway and to see whether a Smart could go 85. Perhaps this is a boy thing.

First, some safety notes. Though tiny, the Smart gets pretty good safety ratings from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. There was, however, a 2009 IIHS report noting the Smart and two other microcars were “poor performers in the frontal collisions with midsize cars.”

“These results,” we’re told, “reflect the laws of the physical universe.”

I’m thinking you’re going to pay a hefty hourly rate for a lawyer to get you around those laws.

As you can see, he lived to tell the tale. All three writers report zipping past the 85 MPH mark without realizing they had done so, which isn’t terribly surprising. I suspect that will be a common occurrence. I’d say I’m looking forward to seeing what the accident rate is on this highway, but I’m really not. Anyway, I suspect this road won’t be this empty for long, so take advantage now if you can.

Metro’s new trains

Oct 27th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Last week, Metro announced that it had received delivery of a new train, the first of a batch of new light rail vehicles (LRVs) scheduled to arrive in town.

Gilbert Garcia, METRO board chairman, said the light-rail Siemens S70 represents a savings of almost a year’s time in getting optimal service to our riders. METRO was able to do this by exercising a contract option with the Utah Transit Authority when it “piggybacked” in an inter-agency agreement to procure the light-rail cars from Siemens.

“These units will help us offer timely and comfortable trips,” said Garcia.

This train is the first of 19 light-rail trains METRO secured in an $83 million contract.

George Greanias, METRO president & CEO, called it a great day for METRO.

“METRORail has a very busy fleet, which this year surpassed 90 million boardings. The new units will take the strain off those already in service and provide more flexibility to our current system,” said Greanias.

Step inside, and you’ll see more standing room and a bike rack that allows a passenger to secure his or her bike upright vertically. Each car will also be equipped with two designated wheelchair spaces. A knee-to-back seating arrangement and a big standing area, with extra hand straps and grab bars, maximize interior space, designed for about 200 passengers.

Train No. 201 is expected to be operational sometime after Jan. 1, said Scott Grogan, senior director of METRORail Service Delivery. Purchasing these 19 Siemens cars would allow us to operate two-car trains all day on our Main Street line.

There’s video at the link above, and more pictures in the accompanying press release, which says there will be two bike racks in each car, one at the front and one at the rear. You know how I feel about bikes on trains, so I sent an inquiry about whether this meant that the hours for which bikes are currently allowed on the trains, which begin at 9 AM, will be extended. The response I received was as follows:

There is no change to the hours currently in effect. We will be evaluating the situation as the new vehicles come on line, however, to see if there is an opportunity to add hours for bike boardings without compromising passenger safety. The remaining Siemens units will be delivered and put into service over the next year.

I remain hopeful.

Endorsement watch: Martin and Sullivan

Oct 27th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

The Chron can’t quite believe that Steve Stockman is on the verge of being foisted on us again as a member of Congress, so they do what they can by endorsing his opponent, Max Martin.

Max Martin

Max Martin is a credible, if long-shot, candidate. Martin, a retired pilot who now owns an education software business in Clear Lake, is our endorsement choice over the stealth candidate Stockman to represent this economically diverse district. Martin is an old-school Texas Democrat, whose moderate, pro-business views should have appeal to many Republicans in the district, which includes refineries, Gulf fisheries, ranches and timbering operations. Constituents include blue-collar workers, small business owners and a growing number of retirees from out of state.

Martin, who came to live in southeast Houston with his family in 1955, has an admirable history as a self-starter. He also possesses an encyclopedic geographic knowledge of the area from his many years as a short-haul pilot for private businesses and Metro Airlines. In every sense he presents himself as someone truly representative of this district. By contrast, Stockman strikes us as a political opportunist whose out-of-the-mainstream views would not serve District 36 residents well.

We recommend a vote for Max Martin to represent Texas House District 36.

Martin had previously collected the endorsement of the Beaumont Enterprise as well. Sadly, CD36 was drawn to be heavily Republican, and even with the financial resources to mount the kind of campaign needed to alert people to what a whackjob Stockman is, it would be an uphill climb. And with the likes of Louie Gohmert in Congress these days, Stockman doesn’t even stand out as particularly crazy anymore.

Elsewhere, the Chron writes the last of the endorsement editorials for candidates listed on their master list by recommending Mike Sullivan for Harris County Tax Assessor.

Mike Sullivan

Over the past 15 years or so, the office of Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector has been deliberately but needlessly politicized. It shouldn’t have been – and we’re confident it won’t be again if county voters elect Mike Sullivan in the Nov. 6 election.

Sullivan, the current Houston City Council member and former trustee of the Humble Independent School District board, has built a reputation as a straight shooter with facts and public finances. That is precisely what is required of a tax assessor-collector.

The assessor-collector’s office is where residents and taxpayers go, often online, to register their vehicles, pay their property taxes and register to vote.

It is, by definition, a service department, not a roost for partisans, whether Republican or Democrat, to spread their views on political issues.

The reason is clear: The constitutionally ordained duty of voter registration does not mix well – or at all – with politicking.

Perhaps it is churlish of me to point this out, but “over the past 15 years or so”, the office of Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector has been exclusively held by Republicans. Paul Bettencourt won a special election in 1998 to replace Carl Smith after he passed away earlier that year, and after him came Leo Vasquez and now Don Sumners. Maybe, just maybe, that might have had something to do with the problem that the Chron so astutely identifies, and if so maybe electing another Republican isn’t the optimal solution to it. I’m just saying. Sullivan, to his credit, says the right things about focusing on the clerical aspects of the job. If he is elected, I sure hope he lives up to that. But I still think that a real change is needed here, and to that effect I’ll be voting for Ann Harris Bennett. By the way, in case you missed it, here’s the Chron overview story of this race – there’s a Libertarian candidate as well – which appeared in the print edition a week ago but which I couldn’t find online until a few days after that.

Friday random ten: For the ladies, part 3

Oct 26th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Still more songs with ladies’ names for titles.

1. Emily – Elana James
2. Emily de Muse – The Buddhacrush
3. Erin – Jiggernaut
4. Evangeline – Los Lobos
5. Fanny – Asylum Street Spankers
6. Ginger Faye – Eddie From Ohio
7. Gloria – Patti Smith
8. Gloria – Santa Esmerelda
9. Gloria – U2
10. Gloria – Van Morrison

I suppose “Erin” could be about Ireland rather than a woman. I hadn’t thought about it till just now. Oh, well. The U2 “Gloria” is not the same as the other three. Of course, those other three, while nominally the same song, are about as different from each other as it is possible to be. Maybe they’re about different Glorias. In any event, one cannot discuss the song “Gloria” without noting the time Bruce Springsteen played lead guitar for Dave Barry’s band on a rendition of “Gloria”. Sadly, I do not own this version of the song.

More early voting

Oct 26th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

Early voting continues to go gangbusters in Harris County – here’s my updated spreadsheet for your perusal. The numbers are certainly impressive, but to keep things in perspective, it’s an increase of about 20% over 2008, whereas 2008 was more than double the turnout of 2004 through Day Four. 


Year    Day 4 total
===================
2004         95,849
2008        208,010
2012        252,752

Note also that Day 4 today was slightly down from Days 2 and 3. What all that says to me is that this is consistent with a hypothesis of behavior shifting, and not some massive turnout increase. Remember, for all the hype about the explosive growth in early voting in 2008, final turnout was 1,188,793 in 2008, and 1,088,731 in 2004, not that much of an increase. Stan Stanart predicted a final turnout for this year of 1.22 million based on the first day of early voting, and that would barely be a change in turnout percent from 2008. Until and unless we see evidence that there’s something different about who is showing up to vote – a big jump in new voters, for example – I’d remain calm about What It All Means. To put it another way, here’s a quote Ed Kilgore pulled from this story about how early voting is going around the country, from the perspective of an Obama campaign official:

Said one senior official: “[T]he most important thing about early vote is one thing and one thing only: are you getting your sporadic voters to vote? Because if it’s just chasing people who are going to vote anyway than it’s just… a zero sum game.”

This is where the campaign pros make their money. See what Greg has to say about translating the daily roster of who voted into guesses about who’s winning and by how much. I’ll do another check on turnout Monday, after we’ve had seven full days of early voting, and we’ll see where we stand then.

Overview of the Keller-Hampton race

Oct 26th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

This story covers a lot of familiar ground, but it’s worth going over again.

Three judges on Texas’ highest criminal court are seeking re-election in November, including Presiding Judge Sharon Keller, who’s been a lightning rod for controversy since her last test of voters in 2006.

Elected to Texas’ Court of Criminal Appeals in 1994, she is the only incumbent on the court with major-party opposition, facing a Democrat and Libertarian.

In 2007, Keller, 59, of Austin, gained national attention for refusing to keep the court open past 5 p.m. to accept a last-minute appeal of a death row inmate who was executed hours later. Charges were filed by the Texas Commission on Judicial Conduct, but it ruled that she did not violate any laws or warrant punishment “beyond the public humiliation she has surely suffered,” according to court records.

In 2010, Keller received the largest fine ever levied by the Texas Ethics Commission — $100,000 — for breaking finance disclosure law by failing to report $2.4 million in personal assets. Keller did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

[…]

Keller’s opponents are Democrat Keith Hampton and Libertarian Lance Stott.

Hampton, a defense attorney in Austin, ran unsuccessfully for the court’s Place 6 in 2010. He said he hopes Keller’s missteps will boost him to become the first Democrat elected to statewide office since 1994.

“We have a judge on the court who has been found to be unethical by every agency in government that can make that determination,” Hampton said. “Her actions have given (the Texas judicial system) a black eye.”

Hampton, 51, Austin, drafted the original proposal of Senate Bill 112 in 2009, which established veterans courts in Texas, and he advocated for a law passed in 2007 that established state prisoners’ right to petition a court to have DNA evidence tested. He counseled against former state Solicitor General and U.S. Senate candidate Ted Cruz and then won in 2007 in the U.S. Supreme Court case of Panetti vs. Quarterman, which spared from execution a schizophrenic murderer from Fredericksburg.

Hampton said GOP straight-ticket voters should “spend an extra few seconds” to vote for him instead of Keller.

“It’s not a matter of Republican or Democrat, or left and right,” Hampton said. “It’s a matter of right and wrong.”

Like I said, this is familiar ground if you’ve read any of the endorsement editorials for Hampton. But these things can’t be said enough, because we only get one chance every six years to do something about it. Sharon Keller has demonstrated over and over again that she is not fit to be on the bench. It’s time to send her back to private practice.

Children continue to be our future

Oct 26th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

The mother of all school finance lawsuits, which commenced on Monday, will take many weeks to conclude. I don’t expect to follow it every day since there’s just so much else going on, but I wanted to point out a couple of things from the Chron story of the trial’s opening day.

Dr. Steve Murdock

By 2050, Texas will be home for 12 million non-Hispanic whites and 31 million Hispanics, Murdock said. Hispanic children will make up nearly two-thirds of the state’s public school enrollment while the percentage of white children, now about 30 percent, will have dropped to 15.5 percent, said [Steve] Murdock, Texas’ first official state demographer.

[…]

About 8 percent of Texas’ non-Hispanic whites have less than a high school education compared with 40.4 percent among Hispanics, Murdock said.

Education remains the best single indicator for economic success, he emphasized. In 2010, one of every 10 Texas whites lived in poverty compared with more than one in 4 among Hispanics, Murdock said.

The state’s future depends on Hispanics since they will make up most of the population growth in the coming decades, he said.

“Their need is our need in the sense that how well minority population groups do in Texas is how well Texas will do,” Murdock said.

Murdock has been singing this song for well over a decade now, but especially in the last legislative session it was clear that no one who had any power to do something about it was paying attention. Here’s an interview I did with Dr. Murdock last year – if you ever get the chance to talk to him or to hear him speak, I highly recommend it – and you can browse my archives for more of his greatest hits. I feel certain that someday there will be broad consensus that he was right all along. i just hope it isn’t too late to do something about it by then.

White non-Hispanic children made up 75 percent of Humble ISD’s school enrollment 12 years ago. Today, white children are a minority at 46 percent and the percentage of low-income children has increased from 15.9 percent to 35 percent.

“Virtually everything (Murdock’s) data showed is the experience we have had in our community,” Humble ISD Superintendent Guy Sconzo said.

[…]

Humble ISD taxpayers approved a maximum school operations tax rate of $1.17 for the 2008-09 school year that generated an extra $17.9 million per year – but the district then lost $24.2 million when state lawmakers cut $5.4 billion from public education last year.

“In one fell swoop that (local tax) revenue went away,” Sconzo said.

As the Trib noted in its look back at a decade of Republican control of Texas, the GOP has largely attempted to control costs in the state budget by pushing them down to the local level. Sconzo’s words attest to that reality. I keep thinking that a day of reckoning will come when places like Humble to which people fled in order to have access to better schools for their kids can no longer provide the kind of education experience these people expected. It hasn’t happened yet on a wide scale, though there have been isolated victories and there are signs this year of it as some Republicans who voted for the vicious cuts to public education now try to run away from them, but I still believe it’s inevitable, and that the 2013 legislative session may hasten it for 2014. Put simply, the course we’re on is unsustainable. Something has to give.

Endorsement watch: The Parent PAC November slate

Oct 26th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

For your approval.

Texas Parent PAC is delighted to endorse the following candidates in the general election.  They are men and women of integrity, open and responsive to parents, actively involved in their communities, and committed to investing in public education to achieve economic prosperity in Texas.

Please vote for these endorsed candidates and encourage your friends and family to vote as well!  Early Voting is October 22 – November 2 and Election Day is Tuesday, November 6.

Read about the endorsement process here.  To find out your district number for State Senator and State Representative, look on your voter registration card or enter your address on the “Who Represents Me?” section at the Capitol web site.

Texas Parent PAC is a bipartisan political action committee.  In the 2012 Texas primary and general elections, the PAC has endorsed 28 Republicans and 25 Democrats.

Texas Senate
S.D. 10: Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth  www.wendydavisforsenate.com
S.D. 25: John Courage, D-San Antonio www.couragefortexassenate.org
S.D. 29: Sen. José Rodríguez, D-El Paso www.senatorjoserodriguez.com

Texas House of Representatives
H.D. 23: Rep. Craig Eiland, D-Galveston  www.craigeiland.net
H.D. 24: Greg Bonnen, R-Friendswood  www.drgregbonnen.com
H.D. 29: Ed Thompson, R-Pearland  www.electedthompson.com
H.D. 34: Abel Herrero, D-Robstown  www.abelherrero.com
H.D. 41: Bobby Guerra, D-McAllen  www.voteguerra.com
H.D. 43: Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles, D-Alice  www.voteyvonne.com
H.D. 45: John Adams, D-Dripping Springs  www.votedonna.com
H.D. 54: Rep. Jimmie Don Aycock, R-Killeen   www.jdaycock.com
H.D. 59: J. D. Sheffield, R-Gatesville  www.jdfortexas.com
H.D. 74: Poncho  Nevárez, D-Eagle Pass  www.ponchonevarez.com
H.D. 78: Joe Moody, D-El Paso  www.moodyforelpaso.com
H.D. 85: Dora Olivo, D-Richmond  www.doraolivo.com
H.D. 94: Rep. Diane Patrick, R-Arlington  www.dianepatrick.org
H.D. 95: Nicole Collier, D-Fort Worth  www.votenicolecollier.com
H.D. 101: Chris Turner, D-Arlington  www.votechristurner.com
H.D. 102: Rich Hancock, D-Richardson   www.hancockfortexas.com
H.D. 105: Dr. Rosemary Robbins, D-Irving   www.voterosemaryrobbins.com
H.D. 107: Robert Miklos, D-Dallas  www.robertmiklos.com
H.D. 115: Bennett Ratliff, R-Coppell  www.bennettratliff.com
H.D. 117: Philip Cortez, D-San Antonio   www.philipcortez.com
H.D. 118: Rep. Joe Farias, D-San Antonio  www.joefarias.com
H.D. 125: Justin Rodriguez, D-San Antonio  www.justin125.com
H.D. 134: Ann Johnson, D-Houston  www.voteannjohnson.com, TV spot
H.D. 136: Matt Stillwell, D-Cedar Park  www.mattstillwell.com
H.D. 137: Gene Wu, D-Houston  www.genefortexas.com
H.D. 144: Mary Ann Perez, D-Pasadena   www.votemaryannperez.com
H.D. 149: Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston   www.hubertvo.com

Here was their slate from the primaries, and an accounting of who won among those candidates. You may notice that there are four candidates that were endorsed in the GOP primary that are not on this list – Cecil Bell (HD02), Chris Peddie (HD09), Trent Ashby (HD57), and Jason Villalba (HD114). The first three have no Democratic opponents and are therefore for all intents and purposes already elected. As for Villalba, I asked Carolyn Boyle about that race, and received this response:

From the beginning, Jason was a “primary only endorsement” because Texas Parent PAC had endorsed Carol Kent in the past and she is great. Jason agreed that once the primary was over he would delete any reference to the Parent PAC endorsement for the primary, and the PAC did as well. It was important to defeat Bill Keffer in the primary, and Jason is a supporter of public education. We are staying out of the general election with Jason vs. Carol…let the voters decide, as both will advocate for public education.

So there you have it. As I did with the primary, I’ll check the scoreboard for Parent PAC after the election is over.

Carona comes out for equality

Oct 25th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

I have three things to say about this.

Sen. John Carona

In a rare if not unprecedented move for a Republican state legislator in Texas, Dallas Sen. John Carona expressed support for three key pieces of pro-equality legislation on Monday.

Carona told Instant Tea he would support bills in Texas to ban discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity in employment; offer domestic partner benefits to state university employees; and allow same-sex adoptive parents to have both names on birth certificates.

All three measures are expected to be priorities for Equality Texas, the statewide LGBT equality group, in the upcoming legislative session.

Carona also said he is “evolving” on same-sex marriage but added that he’s “not there yet.”

“I’m very undecided on the issue and I struggle with it,” Carona said of marriage equality. “I think the whole country is evolving, and I know for a fact that our young people are evolving including young Republicans.

“I can’t say that I’m there yet, that would be dishonest, but I can say that it’s a question that I find myself asking myself over and over,” Carona added. “What is the most conservative approach? Well, I’m always told less government, not more government, is better. What is the right thing? Well, I think anything that advances, encourages monogamy is a good thing. And frankly how could you be against people who want to get their affairs in order and have a loving household? So, yeah, I’m evolving, but admittedly I’m not there yet, nor do I believe the district is there yet, but times change and things may change.”

1. First and foremost, good for you, Sen. Carona. May there be many more, from both parties, who follow your lead. And may you survive the inevitable primary challenge that will come your way in your next election.

2. With another federal appeals court declaring the “Defense of Marriage Act” (DOMA) unconstitutional, the issue of marriage equality could become salient in Texas again. Sen. Carona says he’s “not there yet” on marriage equality, but it’s clear he’s on his way and that he will arrive in good time. It’s amazing to me that less than a decade after banning marriage equality was a huge electoral priority for the Republicans, the issue has completely turned around and is now a wedge that favors the Democrats, at least nationally. I don’t know what public opinion is like here in Texas, but after President Obama came out, the shift in favor of marriage equality has been noticeable, especially among people of color. I wouldn’t bet against the ridiculous Double Secret Illegal Anti-Gay Marriage constitutional amendment passing again in Texas if it were on the ballot this year, but it would sure get a lot less than 76%. And hopefully, someday soon, when the Supreme Court strikes down DOMA and eventually clears a path for marriage equality everywhere, I look forward to seeing all the intolerant jerks who pushed that awful and unnecessary piece of crap choke on it.

3. Inevitably, more Republicans will begin to follow Sen. Carona’s lead on this. When they do, it will erode the Democrats’ growing political advantage on the issue. And you know what? I’m totally fine with that. I’m more than happy to fight it out politically over other issues. The day that there is across-the-board political consensus in favor of marriage equality, America will be a much better place.

Will the Astrodome derail our Super Bowl bid?

Oct 25th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
2 comments

Heaven forbid.

Is the end in sight?

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell told a crowd on Tuesday that by 2017, Reliant will be 15 years old and therefore in need of some upgrades like digital scoreboards. Texans owner Bob McNair says the city must look at all its venues when wooing the NFL, and on the top of that list is the Astrodome.

At a luncheon in downtown Tuesday afternoon, Goodell talked about only one facility as he addressed Houston’s bid for Super Bowl 51.

“The stadium is critical to any Super Bowl bid. That’s our stage,” he said.

But McNair is clearly concerned about the one that sits right next to it.

“We need to come to the conclusion as to what’s going to be done with the Astrodome. It’s not a pretty sight sitting there now and it’s noticeable and people comment on it, so we need to make a decision and move on,” McNair said.

Once again, what to do with the Astrodomee; this time as it affects the city’s chance of hosting a third Super Bowl in 2017, and leading the charge for urgency is McNair.

“It’s just another issue and the better the facilities are that we can make available to the league, the more attractive Houston is as a site,” McNair said.

And the so-called Eighth Wonder of the World, as it is, is useless. It’s a costly health hazard that’s been closed for five years.

Demolition and repurposing are on the table. Harris County commissioners want the people to decide at the ballot box sometime next year. It can still fit into the bid timeline, says Greg Ortale with the Greater Houston Convention and Visitor’s Bureau, but addressing it is a must.

“I think if we don’t address it in the bid, I think it could be a problem,” Ortale said.

That sound you hear is County Judge Ed Emmett breaking open a new case of Maalox. Commissioners Court chose to defer on a Dome-related referendum this year. We may have yet another report on what to do with the Dome, but we don’t have a consensus yet, and it’s not clear to me how a vote on the Dome’s fate would go. But since I’m sure that nobody will want to be blamed for fumbling away the opportunity to host another Super Bowl, I feel fairly confident that we’re going to get the chance to take that vote real soon.

The Chron doesn’t mention the Dome, but it does discuss the scoreboard in Reliant Stadium as another thing that Must Be Dealt With before the NFL makes its decision.

Mark Miller, general manager of SMG-Reliant Park, explained what has to happen for Reliant Stadium to get a new digital scoreboard in time for the 2013 season.

“It would be physically possible to be in by next season, but it would be an issue of whether the funding would work out,” Miller said. “Right now, we’re working with the Texans, the rodeo and the county to see what we can do to get a new scoreboard.

“We’ve got a number of issues with it, but the one (scoreboard) we have now is an older format that really causes problems with the resolution — the overall picture. We’re trying to get it back to standard, an exciting enhancement for the fans.

“Hopefully, it’ll be state-of-the-art for a long time.”

The Texans and the rodeo will have to agree on a new scoreboard, and then they’ll have to work out a plan with the county to pay for it. Representatives of the rodeo are “taking the lead,” according to Miller, and talking with manufacturers of scoreboards.

I’m thinking that with the pace of technological change, nothing is “state of the art” for long. I’d settle for “sufficiently adequate”, with the capability to up upgraded or expanded or whatever in a cost-effective manner, for a long time. The cost estimate for a new scoreboard ranges from $10 million to $30 million, and some of that money could come from a state trust fund that uses tax money to help communities play host to major sports events, of which both Reliant and JerryWorld have been beneficiaries. Frankly, the scoreboard will be the much easier obstacle to overcome than the Dome.

Endorsement watch: Lampson and Gallego

Oct 25th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

I mentioned on Monday that the Chron had endorsed Nick Lampson for CD14. Yesterday, they wrote the endorsement editorial for him.

Nick Lampson

Lampson, a native of Beaumont, first came to Congress in 1996 and served four terms from the Golden Triangle area before being defeated in 2004. He served another term from 2008-2010 in the district long represented by disgraced former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

Now aiming to represent a district that includes miles of hurricane-prone Texas Gulf Coast and is the center for the nation’s refining and petrochemical industries, Lampson says he would “at least study” the Ike Dike to protect both the Texas Medical Center and the complex that makes so much of the nation’s plastics and gasoline.

We can only do so, he contends, by being less centered in one party and reaching across the aisle.

We share that view. The tradition of working out things together is the beating heart of a functioning democracy. We urge voters in Congressional District 14 to cast their ballots for the candidate who practices that virtue admirably and effectively: Nick Lampson.

There’s also the fact that Lampson has a record of outstanding constituent service as a member of Congress. He has always worked hard for the people he has represented.

Over the weekend Lampson also picked up the endorsements of the other two newspapers in the district. Here’s the Galveston Daily News:

Former Congressman Nick Lampson, a Democrat, has obviously been following issues in Galveston County closely. That attention to what’s happening here, as opposed to what’s happening elsewhere, would be welcome. The seat is being vacated by Ron Paul, who appeared to be more focused on national ideological debates than on local interests.

And the Beaumont Enterprise:

U.S. Rep., District 14: Nick Lampson, D.
Lampson has a solid track record as a moderate who works hard for Southeast Texas.

U.S. Rep., District 36: Max Martin, D.
He’s a former airline pilot with an impressive record as an entrepreneur. He’s also not Steve Stockman.

I threw in that Max Martin endorsement because how could I not? Not being Steve Stockman isn’t a sufficient reason to support someone, but it’s a pretty good head start. I should note that both papers also endorsed Romney and Cruz, each demonstrating a touching faith in the magic of business experience and the deficit-reduction fairy, so make of that what you will.

Meanwhile, out west in CD23, the two major papers there made their endorsements for Pete Gallego. Here’s the Express News.

We recommend that voters cast ballots for Democrat Pete Gallego in District 23. The veteran state representative from Alpine is challenging freshman U.S. Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco.

Canseco is too extreme for the poor district. For example, his harsh position on immigration and opposition to a pathway to citizenship is out of touch in a congressional district that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso.

As a member of the Texas House, Gallego demonstrated an ability to work with colleagues on both sides of the aisle. He will be a strong addition to the Texas congressional delegation.

And here’s the El Paso Times.

Pete Gallego

Alpine’s Pete Gallego has long been a good friend of El Paso in his role as a state representative. We now need this fellow West Texan as an ally in Washington, D.C.

Gallego is running for the congressional seat that represents about 100,000 El Paso County residents in a district that spans from a part of our Lower Valley to San Antonio.

This is a chance for El Paso to have two U.S. representatives with El Paso ties, and with El Paso’s needs on their agenda. The rest of our city, more than half a million people, are represented by the District 16 representative.

We especially like Gallego’s forte of working as a moderate. As he said, “Congress needs coalitions” to get positive actions going again.

Gallego said he will work to maintain Medicare and Social Security, citing District 23’s aging population. He said the Veterans Administration is underfunded and he will work to rectify that.

“The system needs moderate people who are practical,” Gallego said.

We urge District 23 voters to send Pete Gallego to Congress on Nov. 6.

These are the two opportunities for Democrats to win seats currently held by Republicans. Newspaper endorsements may not mean much, but I’d rather have them than not. It’s a little boost of confidence if nothing else.

UPDATE: Former President Bill Clinton will be in Texas today to attend rallies for both candidates, one for Gallego in San Antonio, and one for Lampson in Beaumont:

On Thursday, former President Bill Clinton will join Congressman Nick Lampson in support of his campaign for the 14th congressional district of Texas. This will be a Get-Out-The-Vote rally to encourage people to vote early in support of Nick Lampson for Congress. The event will take place at Vincent-Beck Stadium at Lamar University on Jim Gilligan Way, Beaumont, Texas.

The event is free and open to the public.

WHO: President Bill Clinton and Nick Lampson

WHAT: Get-Out-The-Vote rally for Nick Lampson. President Clinton will talk about the 2012 election and why Nick Lampson is the best choice for the 14th district

WHEN: 6:00 PM on Thursday, October 25th

WHERE: Vincent-Beck Stadium – Lamar University, Jim Gilligan Way, Beaumont, TX 77705

Hope you can make it.

Texas blog roundup for the week of October 22

Oct 25th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds everyone that early voting is now underway as it brings you this week’s roundup.

(more…)

30 Day campaign finance reports, selected legislative races

Oct 24th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
21 comments

Here’s a sampling of 30 day finance reports from state legislative campaigns. I used the Back to Blue list as a starting point and added a few races of interest to me from there.


Dist   Candidate       Raised    Spent     Loan       Cash
==========================================================
SD10       Davis      843,878  346,466        0  1,537,783
SD10     Shelton      606,586  153,204        0    566,825

SD25     Courage       27,603   14,791        0     14,546
SD25    Campbell      566,920  592,332   90,000      7,407

HD12        Stem       29,228   23,325        0     24,566
HD12       Kacal       58,460   33,438        0     30,196

HD23      Eiland      134,051   80,923        0    101,419
HD23   Faircloth       92,890   46,816   30,000     43,089

HD26      Nguyen       12,051   22,808        0     10,840
HD26      Miller       45,765   27,995    1,000      9,496

HD34     Herrero       69,722   49,667        0     25,655
HD34       Scott      125,430   68,349        0    255,629

HD43  Toureilles       46,170   23,973        0     11,585
HD43      Lozano      260,590  185,421        0     89,770

HD45       Adams       48,020   25,800   36,000     32,241
HD45       Isaac      128,502   44,595  140,250     69,918

HD78       Moody       73,754   48,371        0     21,858
HD78       Margo      306,071   82,170        0    202,898

HD85       Olivo        9,738    3,490    2,150     10,143
HD85  Stephenson       34,696   16,146        0     21,677

HD102    Hancock       27,245    4,924        0      7,380
HD102     Carter      112,821  109,543        0     66,776

HD105    Robbins       24,687   36,999    1,505     30,583
HD105    H-Brown      123,449   68,244   52,615     87,997

HD107     Miklos       74,020   56,401        0     24,707
HD107     Sheets      280,354   96,777        0    146,778

HD114       Kent      121,236   89,824        0    132,748
HD114   Villalba      172,885  147,326        0     42,612

HD117     Cortez       48,015   44,610    1,844     18,620
HD117      Garza       52,559   72,669        0     62,371

HD118     Farias       51,015   34,925        0     25,482
HD118     Casias       23,730   21,714        0        852

HD134    Johnson      217,346  103,699        0    263,301
HD134      Davis      332,120   99,582        0    232,383

HD136  Stillwell       61,060   20,842    2,000      8,632
HD136       Dale      112,273   22,798   35,000     82,853

HD137         Wu       58,221   55,152   50,000     32,263
HD137       Khan       55,351   40,877   10,000     23,894

HD144      Perez      104,939   30,082        0    107,729
HD144     Pineda       77,357   49,460        0     33,428

HD149         Vo       38,665   27,632   45,119     48,768
HD149   Williams      134,990   56,342    1,500     74,222

Here’s a sampling of July reports for comparison. A few thoughts:

– I don’t think I’ve ever seen a greater disparity in amount raised and cash on hand as we see here with Donna Campbell. Campbell, of course, had a runoff to win on July 31, which covers the first month of this filing period, and a cursory perusal of her detailed report shows the vast majority of the action was in July, as you’d expect. I’d still have thought she’d collect more cash after the runoff, since she’s a heavy favorite to win in November. Assuming she does win, we’ll need to check out her January report from 2013.

– Overall, the Republicans have done a very good job of raising money to protect their vulnerable incumbents. The main exception to this is John Garza in HD117, though he still leads his opponent, Phillip Cortez. The difference between Rs and Ds on amount spent is a lot smaller, which may indicate that their strategy is to do a late blitz, or it may mean they’re just sitting on a lot of cash.

– Turncoat Rep. JM Lozano initially filed a report with almost no cash raised and no expenses listed. Apparently, he “forgot” over $250K in contributions. That total includes $100K from Associated Republicans of Texas, almost $68K from Texans for Lawsuit Reform, $25K from Texas Republican Representatives Campaign Fund, $6K from the Texas House Leadership Fund, $15K from Bob Perry, and just for good measure, $2K from Koch Industries. Hey, I’d want to forget about all that, too. Here’s his current corrected report; there may be another to come.

– After a somewhat anemic July report, Rep. Sarah Davis kicked into overdrive for this period. Ann Johnson, who has an ad I’ve seen a few times on the Headline News Network, did a pretty good job keeping pace, and still has a cash on hand advantage. I presume Davis has some ads running as well, since she got a $100K in kind contributions from Texans for Lawsuit Reform for TV advertising, but I have not seen any such ads myself. She also collected $100K total from Associated Republicans of Texas ($65K) and Texas Republican Representatives Campaign Fund ($35K), plus $20K from Bob Perry.

– Mary Ann Perez had the next most impressive haul after Ann Johnson, showing some very strong numbers for that open swing seat. I presume her strategy is the do a late push as well, given the cash she has on hand. And given the money they’ve sloshed around to so many other candidates, I’m surprised David Pineda hasn’t been the beneficiary of a few wads of dough from the usual suspects. We’ll see what his 8 day report looks like.

– If your eyes bugged out at Dianne Williams’ totals in HD149, I assure you that mine did as well. A closer look at her detailed report shows that nearly $115K of her total came from one person, a Mrs. Kathaleen Wall. Another $5K or so was in kind from various Republican PACs. Take all that out and her haul is much less impressive. The money is hers to spend, of course, it’s just not indicative of some broad-based support.

That’s all I’ve got. Anything interesting you’ve seen in the reports?

Everybody loves early voting now

Oct 24th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
1 comment

From the County Clerk’s office:

The Chief Election Officer of the County, Stan Stanart, announced [Monday night] that Harris County voters set a new record for voting during the first day of Early Voting in person. 47,093 persons voted on Monday, shattering the November 2008 first day total of 39,201.

“We had a record breaking first day of Early Voting,” said County Clerk Stanart. “It is obvious that our message encouraging voters to vote early and avoid the issues of determining their Election Day voting location has been heard.” Due to redistricting, the County Clerk’s office estimates about 20 percent of the Election Day polling locations for Harris County voters have changed. Voters are encouraged to vote at any of the 37 early voting locations. Locations and times can be found at www.HarrisVotes.com.

Champion Forest Baptist Church led all early voting locations with 2,657 voters, the Metropolitan Multi-Services Center had 2,556 and Cypress Top Park had 2,291. The locations which experienced the least amount of traffic include Galena Park Library with 382 voters, Ripley House with 460 and Holy Name Catholic Church with 506. “I urge voters to check www.HarrisVotes.com for their personal sample ballot, Early Voting locations, ID requirements and Election Day locations before voting,” added Stanart.

“Early voting by mail is also at an all-time high and requests for ballots have broken records for Harris County,” asserted Stanart. The Clerk’s Office has received 82,946 requests for mail ballots exceeding the 2008 record of 80,861 requests, seven days before the October 30th deadline to request a mail ballot. As of Friday, 40,566 of the mail ballots sent to voters have been voted and returned to the Clerk’s Office.

To find more early voting information, voters can visit the Harris County Clerk’s Election website at www.HarrisVotes.com or call 713.755.6965.

Here’s my updated early vote-tracking spreadsheet, which includes the daily EV totals from 2004 and 2008 as well. Tuesday was even stronger than Monday, with 51,578 in person votes cast. That’s over 98,000 in person early votes already, which is over 142,000 when you include mail ballots. Wow. It’s a little tricky doing a straight comparison with 2004 and 2008, since EV locations change over the years, but you can get a good feel for where the vote is coming from. I strongly suspect that Republicans will do better in early voting this year than they did in 2008, mostly because they’ve been pushing it as relentlessly as Dems have been. The key question as always is what percentage of this is new voters, and what percentage is regular voters who have changed their habits. Dems grabbed that big lead in 2008 on the strength of early voting, then saw most of it slip away (in the case of a few candidates, all of it) because they pretty much ran out of voters by Election Day. Who’s got the new voters this year? Voter registration reached a new high this year.

Harris County’s voter roll topped 2 million Monday morning for the first time, county Tax Assessor-Collector and Voter Registrar Don Sumners announced.

The precise tally of 2,003,436 represents a 80,852-voter increase since early September.

“The county’s still growing. If we look at it as a percentage of the population, it might not even be a big surprise,” Sumners said. “But I thought it was of interest that we had finally gone over the 2-million mark. We had been flirting with it for years.”

The previous record was set in mid-November 2008, also a presidential election year, when roughly 1.97 million people were registered.

An estimated 2.9 million of Harris County’s 4.1 million residents were 18 or older as of the 2010 Census. If that number is similar today, about 68 percent of the county’s voting-age residents are on the rolls.

Stan Stanart predicted turnout of a bit more than 1.2 million in this article, or about 61% of the total. The story says that would be an improvement of about a point over 2008, when turnout was 59.8%, but the election results page from 2008 put turnout at over 62%, so go figure. I’m going to hold off on such predictions for now, because we don’t know what the share of the final tally will be early voters. There were some rather giddy predictions made in 2008 based on the belief that early voting usually account for about half the final total. It wound up being about 63% of the final total in 2008. I will not be at all surprised to see it be a larger share this year. This may wind up being a good year to vote on Election Day if you want to avoid lines.

And while the GOP may do better in early voting, it looks like the Dems may do better in voting by mail.

As of Friday evening, 18,808 county residents had requested a mail ballot by returning applications sent to them by the county Democratic Party, and 3,567 more had returned applications mailed to them from other Democratic sources, for a total of 22,375.

That is compared with 26,591 voters who had returned mail ballot applications sent to them by the state Republican Party.

The numbers are far closer than in previous presidential years. In 2008, Republicans requested four times as many mail ballots as Democrats, and more than five times as many in 2004.

“A lot can happen between ‘I want to vote’ and ‘I’m going to go vote.’ We hurt ourselves, grandkids come over, who knows what,” said county Democratic Party Chairman Lane Lewis, who campaigned on the issue. “By running an effective vote-by-mail program, you are providing them with direct access, minimizing excuses and complications of them getting themselves to the polls and back.”

As you might expect, Harris County GOP Chair Jared is unimpressed by this. We’ll know who’s right when we see the final score. I noted this trend earlier, and as I said then, this may well be another example of shifting behavior rather than increasing overall turnout. Still, as HCDP Chair Lewis says, it can’t hurt.

On the city bonds

Oct 24th, 2012
by Charles Kuffner.
Comments are off for this post

Here’s an overview of the city bond issues.

The city of Houston is asking voters on Nov. 6 for permission to borrow $410 million to shore up its parks, police stations, libraries, other government buildings and substandard housing.

Propositions A, B, C, D and E for the most part are what Mayor Annise Parker calls “housekeeping” the city does every four to six years to add to, expand, renovate or repair city buildings and other public property. None of them requires a tax increase to pay principal and interest that over decades could mount to an estimated $719 million.

However, the propositions draw voters into a debate over city debt that has largely been confined to the City Council table and a task force that last year examined the city’s long-term finances.

The borrowing is the lowest amount the city has asked the voters for in 30 years. In 2006, the ask was $625 million. Without the new bond measure, Parker explained, city government won’t be able to carry out its five-year plan to continue to fix leaky roofs, repair fire station foundations, renovate old libraries, repair swimming pools and demolish abandoned apartment buildings.

“It’s like a pre-qualification for a mortgage. That’s basic. We’re going to the voters and saying, ‘Can we borrow money in these categories?’ ” Parker said.

Opponents of the measures say it’s more like continuing a spending binge with a credit card.

As Mayor Parker said when I interviewed her about the bonds, for the most part these are projects that went through the CIP process and were approved by Council. This is how the city pays for projects like these – it’s how nearly every entity pays for capital improvement projects, since it’s exceedingly impractical to pay for them out of cash. There’s really nothing remarkable here, save perhaps for the extra dollops of debt hysteria.

Two more things to note. One is that Proposition E, which is listed on the ballot as being about “affordable housing efforts”, is really about paying for the demolition of derelict properties so that some better use can be made of the land. The other is that CM Oliver Pennington is quoted in the story as being a supporter of the propositions, he just thinks the city should have asked to borrow less than $410 million for them. This make him more than a supporter of the parks bond. Not that it really matters, I just like to nitpick.

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