More on HISD’s enrollment decline

Still worrisome.

HISD reported an enrollment of about 183,900 in late October, a drop of more than 6,000 students since the 2022-23 school year and more than 30,000 students since the 2016-17 school year, when the district hit a 10-year peak of 216,106 students.

While annual enrollment data counts the number of students in a district on the last Friday of October, membership data reflects the number of students enrolled in the district on a specific day who have attended at least one day of school. HISD, for example, had 183,439 students attending school Feb. 23, a nearly 3% decline from the previous year.

Families appear to be fleeing to suburban districts, private and charter schools, and even homeschooling. Coupled with lower birth rates, most urban school systems across the U.S. have seen declines, and the National Center for Education Statistics projects that 2 million fewer students will be enrolled in American public schools through 2030.

However, Duncan Klussmann, an assistant clinical professor in the Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies at the University of Houston, said the state takeover may be expediting declines in HISD.

State-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles implemented the New Education System, a controversial whole-scale systemic reform, at 85 schools that largely serve Black, Hispanic and low-income students — this year to attempt to improve student outcomes. The reform model includes a standardized curriculum, timed lessons, daily quizzes in core classes, less autonomy and a zero-tolerance policy for classroom disruptions.

NES “is a very different model, and so not every parent wants their child in that model,” Klussmann said. “There are many parents who are very happy with the model, but there may be parents who do not want their children in that type of model, and I think those parents are questioning if they stay in the system or if they should seek out alternatives.”

Even parents whose children attend high-performing schools have expressed concern about the constant changes and cuts that have come during Miles’ reign. The instability has made them question whether HISD is still the right fit for their families.

Miles said he’s not that worried about the district’s enrollment decline. Instead, he said he’s concerned with making sure that the district’s schools are providing the best education possible, which he believes will eventually lead to more students enrolling in the district.

“You’re gonna see over time that we’re gonna run effective schools,” Miles said. “We’re gonna make education meaningful (by) getting ready for the year 2035. I think that’s gonna bring up enrollment.”

Well, I’m certainly glad that Mike Miles isn’t losing any sleep over this. I don’t know how much of the latest decline is part of the overall trend, which includes a declining birthrate and other demographic issues, and how much is attributable to the chaos that has been post-takeover HISD. I’m sure that the latter is greater than zero, however. And I’m also sure that the potential for long-term damage could well be greater than whatever educational gains we might get out of this. I’ve been worried from the beginning that some uncomfortably large number of people will just decide that they don’t want to deal with HISD, regardless of any improved academic performances. Nothing in this story reassures me about that.

One more thing.

According to Houston Public Media, Miles said in a statement that he was outraged by the publication of the list and that he would order “an independent investigation into the source of this information.”

“It is irresponsible and unethical, and the HISD community and the Chronicle’s readers deserve better,” Miles wrote.

He then sent an email to the principals about the leak, suggesting legal action against the Chronicle.

“We are investigating the release of the names, and we have asked the Chronicle to take the names down or face legal action from us,” Miles wrote to principals.

The Houston Chronicle took down the list, saying it had received a tip that some names may have been mistakenly included in the distribution.

The newspaper did not provide a response or comment on Miles’ criticism, and HISD did not respond to Houston Public Media’s question about what specific law the administration believes the Chronicle may have violated.

“While we are pleased the Chronicle has removed the list from its story, it does not change the fact that its publication has already adversely impacted good people,” Miles said. “The Chronicle violated these employees’ rights by publishing this information and inaccurately characterizing them as low performers.”

What a blowhard and a bully. Again, even if he does the things he says he wants to do, I fear the collateral damage. We can’t be rid of this guy quickly enough.

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There may finally be some resistance to judge-shopping in federal courts

Good news.

The Judicial Conference, the policymaking body for federal courts, announced Tuesday that it would take action against the judge-shopping that has let right-wing litigants funnel cases to friendly, often Donald Trump-appointed judges.

“The policy addresses all civil actions that seek to bar or mandate state or federal actions, ‘whether by declaratory judgment and/or any form of injunctive relief,’” the conference said in a press release. “In such cases, judges would be assigned through a district-wide random selection process.”

It will apply to “cases involving state or federal laws, rules, regulations, policies, or executive branch orders.”

For the past few years, those who want to challenge Biden administration policies have often sought out divisions with one or two ideologically-aligned judges, all but guaranteeing their desired outcome. Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk in Amarillo, most infamous for his ruling against the abortion drug mifepristone, has become the poster boy for this practice.

Kacsmaryk and his ilk have worsened the problem with their willingness to hand down nationwide relief, rather than narrowing it to the plaintiffs before them. This dynamic vests one district judge with enormous power to dictate federal authority, shutting down policies irksome to right-wing plaintiffs as the cases work their way through the courts.

For experts who have been pounding the alarm on judge-shopping, Tuesday’s announcement came as a welcome surprise.

“I’m absolutely delighted that courts have recognized the importance of this issue,” Amanda Shanor, assistant professor of legal studies and business ethics at the the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, told TPM. “They appear to have adopted a policy that will address some of the major, most egregious and troublesome forms of judge shopping.”

But even evangelists of judge-shopping reform had some reservations about the press release, which did not link to any policy text and was devoid of details, including about how it would be enforced.

The Judicial Conference did not immediately respond to TPM’s questions about policy text. Judge Jeffrey Sutton, Chief Judge of the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, said in a Tuesday press conference that a memo would be circulated to federal judges by the end of the week with final text expected to be published in a few months, per Courthouse News.

The Judicial Conference usually puts out recommendations for lower courts to follow; some experts were unsure whether it has the authority to enforce something more binding.

“The real question is whether the statutes authorize the Judicial Conference itself to promulgate this rule, as distinguished from recommending to the judicial councils of the circuits that they promulgate a rule,” Arthur Hellman, a professor emeritus and expert in federal courts at the University of Pittsburgh’s school of law, told TPM.

Still a lot of details to work out and it’s not clear what the timeline is, but anything that allows for fewer cases to automatically go to Ken Paxton’s favorite judges is a good thing. There’s still the huge issue of the Fifth Circuit’s lawlessness, but that’s going to have to be addressed by Congress. That’s a matter for another post. For now, let’s hope this goes as far as possible. Kevin Drum has more.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Could San Antonio support an MLB team?

As you may have heard, Major League Baseball is starting to talk about expansion, potentially adding two more teams in the next few years. San Antonio is on the list of possible destinations for MLB, sometimes paired with Austin, which helps them from a population perspective but seems to ignore the distance and horrible traffic between those cities.

Be that as it may, San Antonio is being talked about, and that’s always a good thing. But how realistic is it all? Maybe not so much, at least not yet.

San Antonio sports commentator Mike Jimenez drew a flurry of online criticism for saying San Antonio will have trouble landing another professional sports team because the city is “poor” and “lacks visionaries.”

The comment came during an episode of the Alamo City Sportscast, a podcast during which he and co-host Joe Garcia discussed a recent ESPN article ranking the San Antonio-Austin region among the top contenders to land an MLB expansion team.

“San Antonio does nothing big,” Jimenez said. “There’s not one visionary in San Antonio. I guess probably the biggest visionary we’ve had over the years is [former Mayor] Henry Cisneros.”

Garcia also said San Antonio remains a low-income city, adding that a MLB expansion team is far more likely to end up in Austin than here.

While Jimenez and Garcia caught flak for their blunt talk about the Alamo City, some scholars said their assessment is pretty close. Others, however, said the metro area’s brisk growth and its hunger for sports may outshine its lack of financial heft.

“Not only is San Antonio poor relative to its neighbors, especially in this case Austin, but San Antonio is the seventh-largest city by population and is still only the 31st-largest media market,” said Char Miller, a professor at California’s Pomona College who’s written extensively about the history of San Antonio.

“[San Antonio] is a big place, but it can’t generate the advertising and ratings necessary to support major league teams,” Miller added.

[…]

In 2022, 18.7% of San Antonio’s 1.4 million residents lived in poverty, according to the latest American Community Survey. The Census Bureau defines poverty as an individual earning less than $13,590 or a family of four earning less than $29,960.

For reference, Dallas’ poverty rate was 17.8%, and Austin’s was only 11%, according to the survey.

San Antonio’s residents earn considerably less than their counterparts in other Texas cities.

Workers in the San Antonio metro brought home $27.90 an hour on average last year – $3.37 less than the average hourly wage in Texas and far less than the national average of $33.22 an hour — according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

So, when Jimenez and Garcia say that San Antonio is poor, they’re not lying. And that’s a real hindrance to professional sports leagues, according to Pomona College’s Miller.

“One of the issues [of being poor] is having fewer television sets,” Miller said. “In a place like San Antonio, which is soccer-mad, there is not a Major League Soccer team. That’s pretty astonishing until you question how that team would generate off-field income, and television is the key there.”

Miller also said San Antonio’s lackluster airport with few direct non-stop flights, especially when compared to DFW International or Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport, poses another hindrance.

“That also becomes problematic in trying to think about the nature of an economy, which is both about transportation, corporate presence and television,” Miller said. “It’s hard to imagine how San Antonio pulls itself out of that hole, which is largely, but not exclusively, of its own making.”

There’s more, so go read the rest. If you’ve read this blog for awhile, you may recall that Char Miller was one of my history professors at Trinity, and he’s written extensively about San Antonio’s history. I’m not sure who Houston’s counterpart to him is. It’s not all gloom and doom for San Antonio, which is a growing city and likely to remain on the radar for major sports teams in the future. But maybe its time isn’t now. Read the rest and see what you think.

Posted in Baseball | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Could San Antonio support an MLB team?

Texas blog roundup for the week of March 11

The Spherical Armadillos is the name of the Texas Progressive Alliance’s next band, and this is the Texas Progressive Alliance’s next weekly roundup.

Continue reading

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Nikki Haley’s best counties

Both Stace and I have noted the handful of counties in which President Biden underperformed in the primary election. That led me to wonder what the analogous situation was like on the Republican side. Where did Nikki Haley overperform her 17.43% total? A little copy-and-paste into Excel, and we get some answers:


County       Haley% Uncom%  Trump%
==================================
Travis       35.82%  1.99%  58.70%
Dallas       28.86%  1.78%  66.27%
Jeff Davis   25.76%  4.77%  66.77%
Collin       24.74%  2.25%  69.75%
Tarrant      23.58%  0.76%  72.97%
Williamson   23.57%  1.81%  71.31%
Brazos       22.40%  2.66%  69.20%
Hays         22.30%  1.31%  71.08%
Denton       21.85%  2.03%  73.06%
Bexar        21.81%  1.20%  74.28%
Harris       19.73%  1.76%  75.66%
Taylor       19.55%  4.42%  72.67%
Fort Bend    19.17%  1.91%  75.15%
McLennan     18.82%  2.50%  74.88%
Rockwall     18.32%  3.08%  75.30%
Kendall      18.25%  1.64%  77.25%
Bell         17.98%  2.97%  75.68%
Llano        17.86%  2.46%  77.09%
Nacogdoches  17.38%  4.19%  74.90%
Comal        17.33%  1.52%  78.93%
Lubbock      17.24%  1.39%  78.40%

Couple things to note: One is that there were a bunch of other Republicans on the ballot, because our filing deadline was last December and basically no one had dropped out yet and those who did drop out at a later date generally did so after the statutory deadline to be removed from the ballot. So several other names, from Meatball Ron to Chris Christie to Vivek whatshisname to that guy from Arkansas, plus two other dudes I guarantee you’ve never heard of, were all on there. None of them got enough votes to bother with, but if you’re wondering why the rows don’t add to 100%, that’s the reason. Two, “Uncommitted” was also on the ballot, and it finished third overall. Yep, 1.96% of the primary voters who cast a vote in that contest said “nah, none of these jokers”.

I almost didn’t include Jeff Davis County because there were only 629 total votes there, but I figured I’d have had to footnote its exclusion if I did that, so may as well just leave it in. Every other county besides Llano (6,460 votes) and Nacogdoches (9,689) had at least 10K ballots cast, so we can call them all reasonably interesting.

In looking at this list, I don’t suppose I’m surprised that it’s the big urban and suburban counties that dominate it. We know who Trump supporters are for the most part, and we know what the dwindling base of anti-Trump Republicans look like: urban/suburban educated professionals, etc etc etc. I suppose it would have been a shock to see smaller rural counties on this list; other than those three I mentioned, they’re all either their own metro area (Taylor County is Abilene) or proximate to one. There are of course urban/suburban areas in which Haley didn’t do better than her average – Nueces County is the first big area farther down the list, followed later by Galveston and Montgomery and the rest. I’m sure one can come up with reasonable guesses as to why this one is and that one isn’t.

I have to think that this list provides some opportunity for Democrats, in that at least some Haley supporters ought to be woo-able. My eyes particularly fall on Collin and Tarrant, given the other business we have in those counties. I hope the Colin Allred campaign is thinking about this, because the Biden campaign is unlikely to spend any money here and I don’t know what other resources there may be. If you know a friendly billionaire or two I could talk to about this, please let me know.

The bottom of this list, where Haley did the worst and Trump the best, is filled with smaller counties as you’d expect. Webb County (6.75% for Haley) is the first place with 100K or more total voters, though only 4,519 there cast a ballot in this race. Liberty County (6.80% for Haley) is the first place with at least 10K votes cast, and the next with that many votes is Parker (9.08% for Haley). You have to go all the way up to Parker County (13.53% for Haley; it’s just west of Tarrant and home to Weatherford) to crack 20K votes cast. As for “Uncommitted”, the following counties had at least five percent of voters peace out like that:

Crosby – 5.22%
Deaf Smith – 5.26%
Bee – 5.45%
Refugio – 5.83%
Dawson – 7.05%
Loving – 7.45%

All small places, with Loving (94 total votes, of which 7 were Uncommitted) of course being the smallest. Hope you enjoyed this.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

SB4 remains on hold

Fine by me. No rush.

The Supreme Court on Tuesday further delayed a new Texas law empowering state authorities to arrest and deport migrants that would transform immigration enforcement long left to the federal government.

Justice Samuel Alito extended an administrative stay set to expire Wednesday until Monday at 4 p.m., giving the Supreme Court more time to consider whether to stop the law, known as Senate Bill 4, from taking effect at all as the ongoing legal battle between the Biden administration and the state plays out.

Texas argued in new filings this week that the high court should let the law take effect while the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals weighs legal arguments against it. The appeals court has a hearing scheduled next month.

“Texas is the nation’s first-line defense against transnational violence and has been forced to deal with the deadly consequences of the federal government’s inability or unwillingness to protect the border,” the state argued.

Meanwhile, the law drew a fresh legal challenge Wednesday as immigrant rights groups sued on behalf of four Texas residents who could face arrest and removal under the law.

The lawsuit, the first filed by individuals who could be targeted under Senate Bill 4, argues the law deprives them of the rights and protections afforded by the federal immigration system, including the right to seek asylum and withholding of removal. The individual plaintiffs are unnamed, but they include a Harris County resident who is a lawful permanent resident from Honduras and was granted a visa as a victim of human trafficking.

See here and here for some background. This is just procedural, it’s SCOTUS saying they ain’t ready to do whatever they’re going to do just yet. They’ll get to this sooner or later, probably not much later.

Here’s some more info on that new lawsuit.

As the current case plays out, a separate lawsuit has been filed in federal court in Austin that also seeks to halt SB4.

The Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, or MALDEF, and the National Immigration Law Center said Tuesday they have filed suit on behalf of four immigrants and current Texas residents who could be subject to arrest under the law. The border-based non-profit organization, La Unión del Pueblo Entero, or LUPE, is also a plaintiff.

The lawsuit alleges that the four plaintiffs and some additional members of LUPE have pathways or pending applications with the Biden administration that could grant them legal status and eventual citizenship.

“Even so, under Texas’ new law, these individuals are subject to state criminal charges and a state judge’s order that they return to the country from which they entered,” a press release announcing the new lawsuit states.

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit include two immigrants who have pending applications under the Violence Against Women Act, one who received Temporary Protective Status and another who was granted a specialty visa called a T visa. The T visa is given to some victims of human trafficking who have cooperated with law enforcement.

“SB 4 further prevents federal officials from making decisions that are exclusively within their authority and deprives individuals of the rights and protections afforded by the federal immigration system,” the lawsuit states. The lawsuit names Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Texas Department of Public Safety Director Steve McCraw as defendants.

The district attorneys of Bastrop, Harris, McLennan and Hidalgo counties are also named as defendants as the four individual plaintiffs reside in those respective counties.

I don’t know enough about this to comment, but I think the original lawsuit should succeed on the merits, so I’m happy for there to be more than one argument for that. We’ll see what happens.

Posted in La Migra, Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

How about a pilotless air taxi?

Those are coming, too. Not as quickly and with fewer details now available, but it’s out there.

Advanced Air Mobility company Wisk agreed to a deal with Sugar Land last week to bring pilotless air taxis to the Houston area.

The company hasn’t finalized its first launch city, according to its website, but aims to have its first passenger taxi operational before 2030.

The partnership has Wisk setting up the foundation for a network of air taxis through the Houston area. The company and city will identify and develop land at Sugar Land Regional Airport for the landing and taking-off of the Wisk air taxis.

“The Greater Houston area is experiencing some of the highest population growth in the country, which calls for new and efficient ways to move across the region,” Wisk CEO Brian Yutko said in a statement. “Sugar Land’s strategic location within the Greater Houston region, and its forward-thinking city leadership, make it an ideal partner for us and one that is uniquely positioned as an early leader in the launch of air taxi services.”

Wisk was founded in 2010. It is a subsidiary of Boeing.

My earlier post about flying taxis in time for the 2026 FIFA World Cup was for taxis that included pilots. There’s more about this innovation here, and that embedded Chron story from August, which I must have missed at the time, talks about flying taxi service to and from destinations other than the airport, like the Medical Center or the Galleria.

Which makes sense. Both of those are in demand and a nightmare to drive into. Transit is an option – I take the light rail to the Medical Center if at all possible; with the completion of the Uptown Line and the eventual construction of the Inner Katy Line, there will be BRT to the Galleria at some point – but not for everyone. I would presume that there will be room for the air taxis to take off and land in these places as well, perhaps on available rooftops. But what about at the other end of those trips? I mean, I can’t imagine having an air taxi come to your house to pick you up or drop you off. If the idea is that there will be designated locations for flying taxi boardings, then there’s still a last mile problem – you have to get there and either be dropped off/picked up in a car or park your own car there. That’s going to make this more expensive for everyone. I haven’t seen any discussion of this as yet, so maybe I’m overlooking some obvious solution. If so, I can’t wait to see what it is.

And speaking of cost, all these stories compare the price of these air taxi rides to Uber Black. (I missed that in the previous post.) The August Chron story quotes someone saying that’s about four bucks a mile; I checked the cost of an Uber Black from my house to IAH for a Monday morning and it was about $100, so that checks out. But that doesn’t factor in any costs of getting to and/or parking at the designated taxis stops. So who knows.

All of this is still kind of pie in the sky. Let’s see if this really is a thing in 2026 for the World Cup, and we’ll go from there. Does this sound more or less enticing than pilot-driven air taxis to you?

Posted in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

On the Ogg loss

I have three things to say about this.

Kim Ogg

Kim Ogg’s campaign for a third term as Harris County district attorney suffered a blowout loss in the Democratic primary election on Tuesday. In the final election night tally, challenger Sean Teare had a 50 percentage point lead over the incumbent — a stunning margin backed up by several possible explanations.

Conceding the race Tuesday night and without naming names, Ogg attributed her loss to the fact she “had made some powerful enemies for all the right reasons.” In the final days of the primary, she sharply criticized her opponent for accepting over $700,000 from left-leaning billionaire George Soros, who supported her in previous election cycles.

Teare had also garnered the local support of County Judge Lina Hidalgo, County Commissioner Rodney Ellis and former Mayor Sylvester Turner ahead of the primary.

Ogg further explained that doing her job had cost her the job. She received criticism from within her party for embarking on the prosecution of three former Hidalgo employees in connection with a vaccine outreach contract.

Those cases were stuck in neutral for over a year; however, the Texas Rangers issued search warrants in November indicating they were expanding their investigation.

Ogg has maintained that she was just following the law by investigating Hidalgo’s employees.

But Teare supporters pointed to Ogg herself as the reason for the wide margin.

“She was our biggest help, honestly,” said Rebecca Shukla, a local Democratic Party precinct chair who signed a petition last fall to admonish Ogg.

[…]

Shukla said she’d watched Ogg’s support among Democrats wane since her first election in 2016, but for her, a turning point came in 2022, when she and other party organizers were fighting to get Hidalgo reelected. Shukla worried that Democrats’ local gains in recent years could all be rolled back.

“Kim Ogg contributed to the potential that it could all go back because she didn’t support Lina. She was actively fighting against her, which basically meant our whole ticket here in Harris County,” Shukla said. “Here we are knocking doors, out there in the heat and she’s just making it harder.”

Ogg had repeatedly accused Democrats on Commissioners Court of “defunding” her department. In October 2022, shortly before voting started in Hidalgo’s reelection bid, Ogg and other law enforcement officials packed Commissioners Court in a dramatic display of support for increases to their budgets.

Ogg’s lack of support for other party members was top of mind when a group of precinct chairs put forth a resolution last fall for the party to formally admonish her.

“People didn’t like how she weaponized her office to go after people within the party,” said Daniel Cohen, a precinct chair and organizer who supported the resolution, which ultimately passed by a wide margin in December.

Until that point, the grievances listed in the resolution had been open secrets, Cohen said.

“It was just a matter of the public starting to actually discuss it,” Cohen said.

Cohen rejects the idea that Ogg’s loss can be chalked up to “powerful enemies” like Soros.

“When she says ‘powerful people beat me,’ I think it’s hilarious,” Cohen said, instead attributing the outcome to the many grassroots supporters who put in the work to elect Teare. “I look at the pictures (of organizers) and I’m like, they are powerful, but they’re not what you think. It shows you that people can be powerful. People can hold their own elected officials accountable.”

The progressive political group Texas Organizing Project also claims credit for the massive win: TOP’s field organizers say they knocked on more than 94,000 doors across Harris County to support Teare.

In 2016, the group had mobilized for Ogg, working to flip the seat held by a Republican. But the group’s leaders felt she no longer represented their values and switched sides this election cycle.

“Sean Teare knows the Harris County DA’s office is in need of a course correction, and he’s a leader who will gain community input to make that happen,” TOP Board President Doshie Piper said in a statement in February when the organization endorsed Teare. “While Kim Ogg wastes county residents’ time and taxpayer dollars on petty political vendettas, Sean is ready to get to work, restore trust with the public, and implement lasting, humane legal reforms.”

Before I continue, as a matter of full disclosure, I’m a Democratic precinct chair, Rebecca and Daniel are friends of mine, I attended the meeting where the resolution to admonish Ogg was passed but did not vote on it. I’ve also had a very cordial relationship with Kim Ogg going back to her first run for DA in 2014. I have many feelings about this race and how we got here, and one of them is sadness that it came to this.

With that said…

1. I don’t think this story captured just how remarkable Ogg’s loss was. The two-term incumbent, who won without a runoff in 2020 against three opponents, got fewer votes and a lower percentage than the opponents to County Attorney Christian Menefee and Sheriff Ed Gonzalez, none of whom had any money or name ID. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of an equivalent election result. It’s mind-boggling.

2. To me, the concerns started with Ogg’s seemingly sudden opposition to the misdemeanor bail reform settlement, which was a direct result of the Democratic wave of 2018 that not only swept out all of the Republican judges that opposed the idea but also installed a Democratic majority on Commissioners Court, which then authorized the settlement as the new Democratic judges asked to drop their defense. A huge amount of Democratic energy went into the fight for that settlement, much of which was expressed in the 2018 campaign. That could have been overcome, but the criticism that Ogg subsequently made of the settlement and the Democratic judges, much of which closely echoed Republican criticism and often sounded like what Judge Hidalgo’s opponent in 2022 was saying (I refuse to name her any more if I don’t have to), really got the most stalwart party members angry. It wasn’t just about the disagreement. It was the way it was expressed, and the timing of it, and the stakes involved.

3. Again, I think all of this could have been overcome. There are plenty of policy differences within the party, and we muddle through them most of the time. The animosity between Ogg and Judge Hidalgo, who as the story notes is extremely popular among Democrats, could have been overcome – we don’t all have to like each other as long as we’re all moving in more or less the same direction. The case against the former Hidalgo employees, which are more technical violation than anything lurid and which maybe isn’t a slam dunk as a criminal case, didn’t even have to be a breaking point. But given all of the other things, it sure seems like maybe Ogg and her office shouldn’t have been the ones to pursue it. She could have handed it off to a special prosecutor, or asked another DA like Fort Bend County’s to handle the case. That would have allowed for the process to play out without the insinuation of political motives or payback or whatever.

Basically, there wasn’t any one thing that led to this result. It was a combination of a lot of things, built up over time. There were opportunities to avoid a lot of the problems and maybe turn down the heat, but they didn’t happen. And so here we are. Whatever else we get from Sean Teare, the favorite to be the next District Attorney of Harris County, I hope he has paid attention to all of that.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Judge puts brakes on Paxton’s attack against Annunciation House

Good.

Attorney General Ken Paxton “acted without regard to due process and fair play” in seeking to shut down a leading migrant service provider, an El Paso judge said Monday in a ruling that blocks the state’s efforts for now.

“The Attorney General’s efforts to run roughshod over Annunciation House, without regard to due process or fair play, call into question the true motivation for the Attorney General’s attempt to prevent Annunciation House from providing the humanitarian and social services that it provides. There is a real and credible concern that the attempt to prevent Annunciation House from conducting business in Texas was predetermined,” 205th District Judge Francisco Dominguez said in his ruling.

Dominguez said Annunciation House’s petition for declaratory judgment means the case is governed by the Texas Rules of Civil Procedure, which essentially blocks any action by Paxton until the court reviews the case.

The judge denied motions from Annunciation House to issue a temporary injunction or quash the attorney general’s request to examine its documents. But his ruling saying the case is subject to court rules has a similar effect of blocking further action in the case until Dominguez can review arguments about the constitutionality of Paxton’s request.

The Texas Rules of Civil Procedure provide a timeline on the production of documents in a civil lawsuit.

Ruben Garcia, the founder and director of Annunciation House, said he was grateful for the judge’s ruling. He said Paxton’s actions could threaten businesses across Texas.

“It kind of sends a shiver through all incorporated entities in the state of Texas, because people are going to ask, does this mean that the attorney general feels that they have the authority to arrive at any institution, any business, any entity, and just walk up and say, we are submitting a request to examine. And I think that’s a really fundamental question about whether that’s a way to function,” Garcia said.

Paxton’s office has not responded to a request for comment.

In his order, Dominguez said he would schedule a hearing on motions from the attorney general that essentially say its actions regarding Annunciation House aren’t subject to his review.

See here, here, and here for some background. The Trib explained one part of this a little more clearly to me:

Annunciation House had asked Dominguez to determine if it was obligated to release the documents Paxton’s office requested. In his ruling, Dominguez said Paxton’s office must go through the state’s court system if it wants to investigate the nonprofit.

“Both the Attorney General and Annunciation House are now obliged to litigate this matter within the guidelines set forth by the Texas Rules of Civil Procedure, created to ensure fair play between litigants,” Dominguez wrote.

So Paxton can still pursue an investigation into whatever fever dream charges he may have in mind, but he can’t just demand that Annunciation House produce every document they’ve ever touched by noon tomorrow or he’ll shut them down. He has to ask and a judge gets to rule on what is in scope and what the timeline for producing it all should be, and so on. Annunciation House had already been producing documents for him, it was precisely the bull rush that had caused them to sue in the first place. I hope this will at least take some air out of whatever he’s doing, but if it does that won’t be forever. Not as long as there’s a pliant wingnut Legislature waiting in the wings to change the laws in Paxton’s favor.

Posted in La Migra, Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Judge puts brakes on Paxton’s attack against Annunciation House

A closer look at Colony Ridge

There have been problems for awhile. Not the kind of problems that got the wingnuts all frothed up, but problems nonetheless.

When the fast-growing Colony Ridge development outside Houston became a fixation of right-wing media last year, Texas’ Republican leaders called for swift action.

The 33,000-acre development had been painted by conservative influencers, outlets and think tanks as a destination for thousands of immigrants in the country illegally and a hub for drug cartel activity. Gov. Greg Abbott publicly worried it was a “no-go zone” and directed legislators to craft new laws about “public safety, security, environmental quality, and property ownership in areas like the Colony Ridge development.”

Records obtained by Houston Landing and The Texas Tribune, however, show at least three state agencies were warned about other potential problems with the development years earlier. Residents sent state agencies more than five dozen complaints about Colony Ridge and its marketing arm, Terrenos Houston, from 2016 to 2023.

Yet, the state has few, if any, results to show.

Instead, the federal government stepped in with enforcement action, painting a different picture of the development’s problems. In a December lawsuit, the U.S. Justice Department alleged the Colony Ridge’s developer duped thousands of Latino buyers with a scheme that violates federal consumer protections and fair housing practices, while ruining their dreams of homeownership.

Thousands of Colony Ridge buyers defaulted on their loans, losing their land and nascent investments, according to the federal government. The company is accused of repeating that process — often exploiting language barriers — by reselling the land to new, unsuspecting customers.

Those findings mirror a Houston Landing investigation that found Colony Ridge had reacquired 45 percent of the 35,000-plus properties it had sold since 2012. The company’s practices raised concerns of a predatory lending scheme, experts told the Landing, which published the report in December, days before the Justice Department announced its lawsuit.

At least 27 complaints sent to three Texas state agencies since 2019 previously were unreported. They raise new questions about how Texas state leaders last fall failed to publicly identify the residents of the development as potential victims of predatory lending practices instead of villains trying to take over the country.

“Gov. Abbott and the Texas GOP spent months fearmongering about the immigrants living in Colony Ridge,” said U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio. “Their concern should have been with the developers exploiting Latino families trying to achieve the American dream of owning a home.”

[…]

Sisters SuEllen and Keilah Sanchez say they bought eight pieces of land from Colony Ridge with hopes they could help their family.

Their excitement soon crumbled.

They say Colony Ridge lied to them about flooding and utility hook-ups, gave them incorrect tax documents and took money before accusing them of missing payments and filing for foreclosure.

The federal government also has accused Colony Ridge of misrepresenting facts — such as guarantees of water, electricity and sewer hook-ups, “causing borrowers to incur substantial unanticipated expenses after closing.”

SuEllen Sanchez filed a complaint with the state’s Department of Savings and Mortgage Lending, which investigates some mortgage-related complaints. Her complaint was forwarded to the attorney general’s office, according to a letter a DSML investigator sent Sanchez in August 2021.

The sisters say they didn’t hear from the attorney general’s office until September 2023, two years later.

By then, Colony Ridge had become a talking point for state lawmakers and national right-wing media. The attorney general’s office received an average of 33,000 consumer complaints each of the last five years, according to caseload statistics from the office.

The sister’s complaints were among 69 sent to the state about Colony Ridge or its marketing arm, Terrenos Houston.

Forty-two of those complaints went to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, several of them alleging raw sewage discharges and violations of proper construction procedures. The federal government also accused Colony Ridge of causing raw sewage to run through and around some customers’ land.

The environmental agency did take some action against Colony Ridge in response to several early 2020 complaints of stormwater runoff from five sections of the development filling nearby creeks and ditches with pollutants. Colony Ridge’s leadership agreed to pay a $23,280 penalty that could rise to $29,100 if the company failed to improve its stormwater runoff monitoring, according to a TCEQ commissioners order dated Aug. 1, 2022.

See here for more on the federal lawsuit. There’s a lot more in the story, including a bit on a local official who appears to have been the source of the “illegal immigrant” hysteria, so go read the rest. You can also listen to this CityCast Houston podcast episode about the story, which gives you the flavor of it. The TCEQ was the only stat agency to be at all responsive to the residents; the fine they levied was chump change, but at least it was something. The federal lawsuit is likely to take a long time to resolve even if a settlement is reached. I’ll keep an eye on it.

Posted in Legal matters, The great state of Texas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

There’s only one way forward after this primary

The worst people you know had a very good week last week. It’s likely to get better for them after the runoffs. These headlines capture the essence of it:

‘Disastrous’: A shaken Texas House prepares for rightward shift after record GOP primary upsets

Amid white supremacist scandal, far-right billionaire powerbrokers see historic election gains in Texas

A House Defeated? Abbott, Paxton, Patrick Bag Rebellious State Legislators

The Far Right in Texas Crashed Through Its Last Guardrail

Read ’em if you want, but you get the idea just from the headlines. The next legislative session is going to be worse than you can imagine, and that’s after the multiple disasters we’ve already lived through. It’s going to be so, so bad.

There is one thing we can do to mitigate this, at least a little. That’s to flip a few State House seats, to reduce the Republican advantage and to maybe send a message that there is such a thing as going too far to the right. I have no illusions about this being easy. We face a lot of obstacles, starting with the gerrymandered map, and we don’t have anything like the political machine the Republicans and their theocrat enablers have built. What we have is a mission, and more than a little desperation to fuel it. At least there will be a well-funded Senate campaign hopefully pushing things in a good direction.

There are also some legitimate targets. That gerrymandered map drew a lot of Republican-friendly districts, but a fair amount of them are more of a red-tinged purple than actually red. That includes some districts in which quasi-normie legislators were ousted in favor of true wackos. I’ve reviewed what the legislative pickup opportunities are before, and now I’m going to go back to that list and point them out for this context. The rest is up to us. Note that while I’ve included one from the Houston area, these are all outside Harris County. Our best opportunity here is HD138, and while Jared Woodfill losing in the primary is good news from the perspective of humanity and decency, it’s bad news from an electoral perspective.

Be that as it may, here are the main districts of interest. Do with them what you will.

HD14 53.8-43.5 for Trump in 2020. Open seat following the retirement of Rep. John Raney. Fred Medina is the Democrat. I found this interview he did if you want to learn more.

HD26 54.8-43.7 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Rep. Jacey Jetton was ousted in the primary for the sin of voting to impeach Ken Paxton. This is in Fort Bend, and Daniel Lee is back for another run at it.

HD37 50.6-48.4 for Biden in 2020, flipped to the Republicans in 2022 after the Dem incumbent left for a run at Eddie Lucio’s Senate seat. The Republican incumbent is Janie Lopez. There’s a Dem runoff for the primary so we don’t know who the opponent will be just yet.

HD52 51.0-46.7 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Caroline Harris Davila flipped the seat in 2022 after it was redrawn to be redder; this is Rep. James Talarico’s former district. Jennie Birkholz is the Dem challenger.

HD54 52.4-45.5 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Brad Buckley was the House Public Ed Chair in 2023, and tried to thread a needle on vouchers, with no success. I suspect the next Speaker will install a voucher minion in 2025, and who knows, maybe Buckley will revert back to being a voucher opponent as a result. Whatever the case, HD54 has been a fringe Dem pickup opportunity since at least 2016, even post-redistricting, though Dems have never seriously contested it. Dawn Richardson is this year’s candidate.

HD55 53.8-43.9 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Rep. Hugh Shine has been a wingnut target in the past though they left him alone in 2022, but this time they got him. That makes this seat, located in Central Texas, perhaps more flippable than it would be otherwise. We’ll see what Jennifer Lee can do with it.

HD61 53.0-45.8 for Trump in 2020. One-term incumbent Rep. Frederick Frazier is in the runoff after finishing second with 32% of the vote. He’s had some legal issues, so perhaps a loss here will make this seat safer for Republicans than if he wins. I’m including it anyway, as it’s still reasonably tight and it’s in Collin County, where a lot of these opportunities are and where the trends have been pretty blue in recent years. Here’s hoping they give Tony Adams a boost.

HD63 52.0-46.4 for Trump in 2020. The incumbent is Ben Bumgarner, and I only learned that in doing this post. I got nothing about him other than he’s a first-termer, but the Dem opposing him is a familiar name, former Rep. Michelle Beckley, back for another shot at the Lege after running for Lite Guv in 2022. She was a surprise (to me, at least) winner in the 2018 sweep and I do not underestimate her, though I know she’s not necessarily the most popular person among Dems after 2022. Still, this ought to be a race to watch.

HD65 53.4-45.1 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Rep. Kronda Thimesch was elected in 2018 after Drew Springer moved up to the Senate. She was ousted by the forces of evil this year, and so this one becomes another advanced opportunity. It’s also in Denton, which like Collin now has some purplish-to-purple seats. Detrick DeBurr is the challenger.

HD66 53.1-45.2 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Rep. Matt Shaheen is likely to overperform the partisan index, so this one is maybe not as high on the list, but it’s close enough to not ignore it. David Carstens, the Dem candidate, didn’t have any web presence that I could find when I drafted this, so that’s probably another indicator of where this one stands.

HD67 53.5-44.6 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Jeff Leach not only survived the revenge attempt against him for his impeachment vote, he forced me to re-evaluate him after being so frankly outspoken about Paxton’s perfidy. He used that outspokenness in a mostly jerky way for his time in the Lege before this, but he has reminded me that even bad legislators can have some good qualities. I still want to see him lose, and Makala Washington is the one who’s going to try to make that happen.

HD94 53.8-44.4 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Rep. Tony Tinderholt is one of the biggest misogynist assholes in the Lege, and as I’m sure you know, that’s saying something. He’s had some close calls before, and his seat is now a little redder after the redraw, which he needs. Still, there’s plenty of material here to work with if we want to make a difference. He’s in Tarrant County, where I hope there’s a significant overall effort to move the needle. Denise Wilkerson is his opponent.

HD97 53.9-44.4 for Trump in 2020. Open following Rep. Craig Goldman’s run for CD12. There are runoffs in both parties, so we’ll get back to this one later. Also in Tarrant County.

HD108 49.7-48.9 for Trump in 20020. Incumbent Morgan Meyer is one of two Republican legislators left in Dallas County, and he barely survived his primary in a district that’s not at all drawn to be won by a wingnut. This is Dallas County’s answer to HD134 – we’ll return to that theme in a minute – and maybe this is the year it tips over. Elizabeth Wilkerson would have had an easier path against Meyer’s opponent, but here we are.

HD112 49.4-48.9 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Angie Chen Button is the other last-standing Dallas County Republican legislator, and like Rep. Meyer she has been several points above the spread in years past. But as Democrats who remember 2010 can attest, the wave will get you sooner or later. And she has a stellar opponent in Averie Bishop, about whom I’ve written before. I’m going to reach out to her for an interview later in the year.

HD118 50.6-47.9 for Biden in 2020. Incumbent John Lujan flipped this seat in a special election following the retirement of then-Rep. Leo Pacheco and an ugly fight between Democratic factions in that race. He held on to the seat in that November, but he has a much tougher task this cycle. Kristian Carranza won her primary by a large margin and should be a top-tier candidate.

HD121 50.4-48.1 for Trump in 2020. Incumbent Rep. Steve Allison was the Sarah Davis of San Antonio, and unlike Davis was finally ousted by his increasingly unhinged party in the primary. I have to believe this makes this an easier pickup opportunity – hell, this result was the impetus for this whole post – in what was once Joe Straus’ district. Here’s hoping Laurel Jordan Swift is the right person to do it.

Hope that helps. There are other possibilities, and as noted rape- and life-of-the-mother-exception opponent Sen. Angela Paxton is also up for election this cycle, so feel free to give Rachel Mello some love as well. This should get you started.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Dallas Mayoral recall effort goes nowhere for now

It could still happen, but the same concerns exist as before.

In a press release early Wednesday morning, Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson let everyone know that the effort to recall him had failed “miserably.”

Dallas activist and business owner Davante Peters launched the recall petition in January citing Johnson’s City Hall attendance record and party switch to Republican as reasons he wanted the mayor out of office. It would have taken 103,595 signatures to recall Johnson. While Peters had been collecting signatures since January, he submitted zero to the city secretary.

On his attendance record, Johnson said in the press release that his annual attendance rate has averaged 93.5% the past four years. However, KERA has reported that Johnson has missed more than 130 hours of City Council meetings since 2019.

“This was a big, fat nothing-burger cooked up by self-promoting partisan opportunists and served up by some click-hungry members of our local media whose breathless ‘reporting’ on the subject too often resembled an endorsement of this ridiculous recall effort,” Johnson said in the press release. “My attendance was never truly the issue, and my publicly available attendance record proves it. My Administration’s policies and vision for this city have remained unchanged and unwavering.”

[…]

Reached for comment, Peters said although he did collect some signatures, he didn’t want to submit any because he didn’t want to “show our hand.” This is because he plans on launching another recall effort soon. He said when he initially filed his petition to recall the mayor, he hoped Democratic organizations in Dallas would band behind him, but that didn’t happen. “We’re going to re-strategize, get a new strategy without expecting anything from those organizations,” he said.

Peters called Johnson’s press release “childlike.”

“I don’t take it personally,” Peters said. “I just feel like a more mature person would listen to the concerns and the hearts of the community, and he could have used that press release as an opportunity to allow the community and citizens to understand why he made the decision [to switch parties] as opposed to trying to taunt their efforts.”

See here for some background. I’m not at all surprised at how this played out. I think this is as much a matter of timing and priorities as anything else. Dallas Democratic organizations just have bigger fish to fry right now. Maybe the timing will be better next year. I do think the Dem orgs will be interested when they don’t have more pressing matters to deal with, and I know for sure this will take a lot of resources to pull off. Keep talking to them about when the time could be right, and we’ll see what happens from there.

Posted in Show Business for Ugly People | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Dallas Mayoral recall effort goes nowhere for now

In which I learn about our use of “Dataminr”

I have three things to say about this.

The Houston Police Department will stay in the ranks of law enforcement agencies around the country using software to monitor social media for information on criminal activity following a City Council vote on Wednesday.

Council members approved without debate or dissent spending $108,000 on software from Dataminr, a company that has drawn concern from civil liberties advocates while touting its ability to alert police to breaking events.

Supporters say Dataminr’s products do not raise privacy concerns because they rely on publicly available posts from social media users. Critics, however, have raised alarms about agencies using Dataminr products to zero in on abortion and Black Lives Matter protesters.

[…]

Ángel Díaz, a visiting assistant professor at the University of Southern California School of Law, said he was not convinced by the company’s protests that it does not offer a surveillance tool.

“It’s sort of a distinction without difference to me, because ultimately what they are providing is information about specific accounts,” he said. “They are providing an ability to surveil all tweets, and to pull out specific tweets that they believe are evidence of potential criminal activity. I don’t see how that is not surveillance.”

Díaz said he was concerned, for instance, about reports that company employees were tasked to look for information about crime on the South Side of Chicago.

“The question becomes, who is setting up the kinds of alerts that they are receiving. Who is being placed under this web of suspicion, and who is being ignored?” he said. “There is a way in which we are confirming our previous beliefs about a community based on who we choose to run searches against.”

Christopher Rivera, a spokesperson for the Texas Civil Rights Project, said he was concerned the police department could use the tool to focus on protesters.

“Ultimately, what these protesters are asking for is better situations for themselves,” he said. “Yet, police will use it to deter them and surveil them and oftentimes criminalize protected speech.”

The Houston Police Department did not answer a question about whether it has placed any limitations on its use of the software.

1. I can’t believe that ShotSpotter failed to take this opportunity to call itself “ShotSpottr”.

2. A little Google searching did not find me any information about how effective Dataminr is. Like, do they make any claims about helping to reduce crime by some amount? I found one study from 2022 about the use of AI to predict where crimes would occur, but that wasn’t helpful for this purpose. My point is simply this: We are spending this money on this tool, as we are also spending money on ShotSpotter. What value are we getting for that money? Seems like a reasonable enough question to ask, and yet here we are.

3. This I think is my single biggest concern about Mayor Whitmire’s agenda for crime and policing, which is that we’re going to spend a bunch of money on the police and give them what they want but we’re not going to create any metrics or conduct any audits to determine if we’re spending that money wisely and effectively. We’re just going to throw money at it, and if crime goes down we’ll say it worked, and if crime doesn’t go down we’ll say we need to do more. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong about this.

Posted in Crime and Punishment, Local politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on In which I learn about our use of “Dataminr”

Weekend link dump for March 10

“How Todd Akin’s “Legitimate Rape” Debacle Previewed the Abortion Agenda of Today’s GOP”.

“What is the ideal size of the human population?”

The best summary of Mitch McConnell and his career that you’ll read.

“Researchers in the Amazon have discovered the world’s largest snake species – an enormous green anaconda – in Ecuador’s rainforest that split off from its closest relatives 10 million years ago though they still nearly look identical to this day.”

“US Cities Could Be Capturing Billions of Gallons of Rain a Day”.

“It is permissible in English for a preposition to be what you end a sentence with. The idea that it should be avoided came from writers who were trying to align the language with Latin, but there is no reason to suggest ending a sentence with a preposition is wrong.”

The field of eDNA research has mushroomed in the last 15 years as sequencing, computing technology, and metagenomics — the study of DNA from multiple organisms — has advanced. Now, scientists around the world can sample from a cup of dirt, a vial of water, or even a puff of air, and survey the eDNA present for thousands of microbial species. And while the field at-large has faced concerns about privacy and technical limitations, many scientists see an opportunity to further early detection of emerging pathogens. Wastewater surveillance is the most advanced method for monitoring population-level virus spikes, but other realms are catching up. As a result, health officials are becoming better prepared to detect an outbreak — and quickly take steps to contain it.”

Release the Pop-Tart recipe!

Wishing Will Shortz all the best.

RIP, Joyce Slocum, President and CEO of Texas Public Radio.

RIP, W. C. Clark, known as “the Godfather of Austin Blues” and a mentor to Stevie Ray Vaughan.

RIP, Chris Mortensen, award-winning NFL reporter for ESPN.

“The courts were never going to save America from Donald Trump”.

“The 5 Most Pressing Threats To The 2024 Election”.

“In other words, the whole thing is a shabby scheme designed to extract billions of dollars from Trump’s MAGA fans, who will be left holding the bag when Truth Social collapses.”

“This case reveals originalism as practiced by the justices for the fraud it actually is: a framework for justifying the results that the jurists handpicked by the conservative legal movement wish to reach. Americans should keep that in mind the next time the justices invoke originalism to impose their austere, selective vision of liberty on a public they insist must remain gratefully silent.”

“A three-judge panel of the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals dealt a blow to the DeSantis administration by deeming one of the Republican governor’s signature laws — the “Stop Woke” Act — unconstitutional, upholding a previous ruling that prevented it from taking hold.”

“Happy birthday to Maria Branyas Morera who was born on this day 117 years ago. Morera is the oldest living human in the world.”

What a bunch of whiny little nobodies these people are.

Good damn riddance.

“Dartmouth men’s basketball players vote to unionize in landmark moment for athlete rights”.

RIP, Steve Lawrence, singer and nightclub performer who was the “Steve” half of Steve & Eydie.

Alabama’s new law protecting IVF still leaves intact the “fertilized eggs are humans” logic that underpinned the court’s ban on IVF. It’s hard to see how it would survive a lawsuit.

“Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake failed to keep Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer’s (R) defamation lawsuit on hold Tuesday, meaning the case move towards discovery and trial.”

“The SOTU response isn’t in the Constitution. There is no law. This is a completely made-up thing designed as an excuse to give the opposing party some free air time.”

“According to some conservative thinkers, the scourge of “wokeness” has finally been defeated: Last weekend it was smothered to death on live television by a starlet’s breasts.”

“Why is Donald Trump suddenly a TikTok fan?”

RIP, Morris Overstreet, first African American elected to a statewide office in Texas, who served as a Justice on the Court of Criminal Appeals in the 90s.

Sen. Katie Britt lied through her teeth about that sex trafficking case. Watch this video for a clear explanation. And let’s see if the media picks up on it.

“Some Kansas City Chiefs fans who braved the below-freezing temperatures to watch the Kansas City Chiefs against the Miami Dolphins during the 2023 NFL Playoffs on Jan. 13 – when it was -4 degrees Fahrenheit and wind chills measured at -20 at kickoff – could possibly need to have amputations after suffering frostbite.”

RIP, Naomi Barber King, civil rights activist who was married to the younger brother of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.

Posted in Blog stuff | Tagged | 4 Comments

Annunciation House has its hearing

Seems like it might have gone well for them.

An El Paso district judge lashed out at the Texas Attorney General’s Office after a lawyer said in court Thursday that Annunciation House was “stonewalling” by refusing to negotiate over documents demanded by the office.

“Hold on. This is the part where you’re starting to offend my intelligence. You did not offer to negotiate. You did not offer to act in good faith,” 205th District Court Judge Francisco Dominguez told Ryan Baasch, chief of the attorney general’s Consumer Protection Division, at a hearing on Annunciation House’s request to hold off producing some documents until a judge could review whether they were legally obligated to do so

Dominguez said Annunciation House has shown a willingness to negotiate with the Attorney General’s Office, which has said it will close the nonprofit that offers humanitarian services to migrants.

“There was no attempt whatsoever to negotiate by the attorney general, which is what gives the court rise for concern that there are ulterior political motives here taking place that go outside of what the law requires, go outside of what the law demands,” he said.

Dominguez, a Democrat and former civil rights attorney, did not immediately rule after a two-hour hearing on Annunciation House’s request for an injunction or other action to allow for a court review of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s demand for records and the immediate termination of Annunciation House’s ability to operate in Texas for failing to immediately produce the records.

A ruling likely will come in the next few days.

[…]

Three representatives from the Attorney General’s Office on Feb. 7 served Annunciation House with a request to immediately examine operational records, but agreed to give the agency a day to consult with attorneys. The next day, Dominguez granted Annunciation House’s request for a temporary restraining order against the attorney general.

Annunciation House is seeking a temporary injunction that would stay in effect until Dominguez ruled on its legal obligations in regards to the attorney general’s request.

Jerome Wesevich, the attorney for Annunciation House, told the court that the agency has turned over 212 pages of records so far to the Attorney General’s Office. He said the request was “an abuse of power to try to stop Annunciation House from doing business.”

See here and here for some background. We have not yet gotten a ruling, and I am fervently hoping that it will be an absolutely stinging rebuke of Paxton. I have a hard time expressing how much this outrages me, and I say that as someone who consumes way too much news about Ken Paxton. I grew up Catholic, I haven’t practiced it in decades but it has shaped me, culturally and morally, and I have always admired the Catholic dogma of service and doing good works as a critical part of expressing your faith. I mean, Jesus was pretty clear about that kind of thing in the gospels, and yet so many of his alleged followers live their lives in ways that (to me, at least) do as little as possible to emulate what he taught. And in our current world, that very much includes a cadre of Catholics, as this earlier story makes clear.

For the past few years, right-wing advocacy groups and Republican lawmakers have targeted non-governmental organizations that shelter migrants, many of them asylum seekers, blaming them for incentivizing illegal immigration with taxpayer money.

Those efforts come as religious figures, emboldened by the rise of Christian nationalism, continue to demonize migrants and those who aid them as part of a broader scheme to dilute the American electorate. On Sunday, Ed Young, a former president of the Southern Baptist Convention and the longtime pastor of Houston’s massive Second Baptist Church, gave a lengthy sermon in which he reportedly called migrants “garbage” and “undesirables” who are being brought in to support a “progressive, Godless” dictatorship.

“We will not be able to stand under all the garbage and raff in which we’re now inviting to come into our shores,” said Young, whose church has been attended for years by prominent state Republicans. “And they’re already here.”

Far-right Catholics have also mobilized against organizations such as Catholic Charities, calling it the “enemy of the people” and blasting it for assisting migrants — many of whom are also Catholic, but conflict with the ethno-nationalism that experts say is highly correlated with white Christian nationalist beliefs.

Last year, right-wing Catholics launched a campaign to defund bishops who aid migrants at the border; and in an interview with the group Church Militant, self-professed Christian nationalist and U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, said Catholic Charities’ work was proof of “Satan controlling the church.”

And some Texas politicians have targeted faith-based groups like Annunciation House — which has been in operation for nearly 50 years — with accusations that such shelters encourage, and profit from, illegal immigration.

When I was a student at Sacred Heart Elementary School back when dinosaurs roamed the earth, one of the hymns we’d sing included the refrain “And they’ll know we are Christians by our love, by our love/And they’ll know we are Christians by our love”. I don’t know what distinguishes these people as “Christians”, but it sure ain’t love. If you want an example of what that should look like, read this guest opinion piece at the National Catholic Reporter. As I said, I haven’t practiced Catholicism in a long time – and believe me, there are many good reasons why – but I’m firmly with the actual Catholics here. They need to win this fight.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Mike Miles versus the principals

I don’t even know, man.

Houston ISD’s appointed Superintendent Mike Miles put about half of the district’s principals on notice Thursday evening after receiving results of their midyear proficiency screenings, informing them that they must undergo a second assessment this spring and achieve at a higher level to remain a principal in HISD next year, according to documents obtained by the Houston Chronicle.

The principals who received the message include both longtime veterans and principals appointed by Miles’ administration just this year, representing Houston’s highest- and lowest-performing schools. Miles said he would make the midyear results available to principals on Friday, and met with them in the morning to discuss next steps.

“Your results demonstrate that you are working to be a proficient instructional leader and need to continue making progress toward that goal,” Miles wrote to principals on Thursday evening. “I want to make sure you clearly understand the next steps in the process to evaluate your performance and determine your eligibility for a principal position next year.”

The Houston Chronicle obtained a copy of the email, which was addressed to 117 principals.

The Chronicle initially published the names of everyone listed as a recipient on the email. The news organization then received a tip that the district may have included someone erroneously, raising questions about the accuracy of the district’s distribution list. In its editorial discretion, the Chronicle took down the list of names.

The midyear proficiency screenings, which about half of the district’s principals passed on the first go-around, focused on “quality of instruction” and “student achievement.” The former was determined by an independent review team that conducted classroom observations of core subject teachers in February, while the latter was based on midyear NWEA and interim STAAR results.

[…]

Under Miles’ targeted distribution, 40% of principals will receive a Proficient I ranking, and 20% will score a higher rating of Proficient II. Just 8% of principals will be receive the district’s highest ratings of Exemplary I or II. Principals who score in any of those four categories may remain as school leader.

The lowest-scoring principals will be rated Progressing I and Progressing II. The 10% that score in the first category will automatically be removed from their position as a principal at HISD. The 22% percent who receive a score Progressing II will be able to stay in their role at the discretion of their feeder pattern’s executive director or that of their division superintendent.

Michael McDonough, former principal at Bellaire High School, said that just one model or framework cannot effectively evaluate all the principals at HISD, given the size and diversity of the district and its 274 schools. He also said the evaluation system sends a message to principals that they are interchangeable, and worried that forcing principals out will have trickle-down effects on teacher retention and community confidence in a school.

“When a new process is rolled out to a district this size, it would seem prudent to spend a year examining the data to be sure that what you’ve designed works,” McDonough said. “Instead they are rolling it out with an unwarranted level of confidence.”

The HISD documents that detail these systems are embedded in the story. I haven’t read them yet and I’m not really interested in the inner workings of this at this time. I’m more about the big picture, which I’ll get to in a minute. First, here are a couple of reactions I saw on Twitter that I think capture the vibe:

I think we can all agree that however you wanted to define Mike Miles’ mission upon being made lord and master of HISD, it wasn’t supposed to include the many schools at HISD that are already quite successful by any measure. Because there were apparently some issues with that initial list of schools, which is where Joy Sewing and Jen Radcliffe got those names, we can’t say for sure that the head honchos at Carnegie et al are actually on any kind of notice. But I for one sure believe that Mike Miles has higher priorities than those schools, and has much more potential to harm them than improve them, and I suspect I’m not alone in that assessment.

That said, even well-rated schools can have significant populations of struggling students. I was told some years ago that Bellaire High School (which has something like 3500 students) had more kids that were failing STAAR tests and not meeting academic standards than some of the schools that were getting overall failing grades from the TEA, but because Bellaire is overall performing well those students don’t get the attention they deserve. I don’t know what the data for these schools are now, but the larger point that even good schools have students who could be doing better and that those schools should be held accountable for their performance is a sound one. One could certainly argue that schools whose populations are well above the average for household income and other markers of advantage should be held to a higher standard than schools with mostly disadvantaged students. If that’s where this is coming from, then there’s merit to it.

Like I said, I haven’t dived into the details, which at first glance look to be pretty technical. But at a high level, do I trust that Mike Miles has got the right idea and is executing it well? I think we know the answer to that. Even beyond that, the rigid formula for who gets to proceed and who gets fired or put on probation sounds an awful lot like rank and yank, which is not a good thing and will almost certainly contribute to the further decline in morale within HISD. And basing it on less than a year’s data (!!) with no intermediate steps to evaluate how things are going overall, seems like a great way to get results that don’t actually match up with performance.

There may well be some merit to this idea at a macro level, and certainly if one buys into the whole Mike Miles agenda, it could be a step in the right direction. But then we come back to that question about whether I trust what Miles is doing and how he’s doing it. So yeah, I’m not on board.

Posted in School days | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

More on the HPD dropped cases

Mayor Whitmire wants some answers.

Houston Mayor John Whitmire on Wednesday called for an independent investigation into the Houston Police Department over how and why more than 264,000 cases were declared suspended for lack of personnel.

“I trust and believe Police Chief Troy Finner is doing the best he can to manage the internal investigation, get to the bottom of it and hold people accountable,” Whitmire said in a statement. “The independent panel will be people I also trust to review and validate the outcome and help bring closure to the victims.”

Whitmire’s call for a third party to investigate the police department was acknowledged by police chief Troy Finner, who said he welcomed and supported the review in a post on X.

“The mayor and I have spoken almost daily about this matter and I appreciate his continued support of HPD and my administration,” Finner’s statment read.

Finner called the review a “vital part of the transparency and accountability” into the scandal.

Whitmire’s statement said he will release the names of people who agreed to serve on the review panel in coming days.

[…]

In previous public comments about the suspended cases, Whitmire has blamed problems on previous administrations, but called Finner a good chief who could “be better.”

“I am deeply concerned about how and why this happened. The public wants answers and accountability. This process of appointing an independent panel will validate the investigation’s integrity,” Whitmire said Wednesday.

The police department also announced it would host a news conference Thursday to provide another update on police department’s internal review of the suspended cases and its efforts to contact victims.

See here for some background. I don’t see another story on the Chron about that news conference and update, but it looks like video from it is here. I’m going to wait and see what this investigation uncovers before getting too deep into this, but two points to note. One, in this earlier story that says the use of this code actually goes all the way back to 2014 and was known about at the time, we have this:

Charles McClelland, then Houston’s police chief, said in 2014 that he wasn’t surprised at the findings and they weren’t unique to Houston. He presented the city with a plan to hire hundreds of more officers and asked for $105 million to do it.

HPD Chiefs have been calling for the hiring of more officers for more or less ever, so that this was then-Chief McClelland’s proposed answer is not a surprise. Whether it might have helped or not is something we’ll never know, but I will leave it to the reader to work out what effect an extra expenditure of at least $105 million a year (it will presumably go up as salaries and other costs rise) would have on our current budget situation.

And two, there’s this.

Gov. Greg Abbott is calling for the state to impose “consequences” for the 264,000 cases Houston police have dropped since 2016 due to a lack of personnel.

“250,000 crime victims in Houston never even had their crime investigated. That includes thousands of sexual assault victims,” Abbott wrote on X on Thursday. “The state must impose consequences for this neglect & provide solutions to prevent acts like this that allow criminals to go free.”

Not “how can we help”, just straight to “someone’s gonna pay for this”. Typical. Maybe this isn’t the threat that I’m reading it as, but that’s Mayor Whitmire’s problem. He says his ability to work with the state leadership is an asset. At this point, what we need more than anything is damage control. I hope for the best.

Posted in Crime and Punishment | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

City of Uvalde gets its report on police performance at Robb Elementary

It landed with a thud.

A city-commissioned independent review of Uvalde police’s response to the Robb Elementary School shooting cleared local officers of wrongdoing, infuriating parents of the 19 children killed in the massacre and at least two city council members who rebuked the report after it was released Thursday.

City officials hired private investigator Jesse Prado, a retired Austin police detective, to conduct the review into the response from the city’s police department to the May 24, 2022 mass shooting that also resulted in the deaths of two teachers and injured 17 others.

The findings of the report were presented in a question-and-response format with Prado at a city council meeting and the actual 182-page report was released later Thursday after city officials shared it with families. Prado said the review identified training, communication and leadership lapses, but he also commended some of the city’s officers and characterized their actions as in “good faith” — contradicting findings of previous audits by state and federal officials.

Those reviews have illustrated a catastrophic law enforcement failure in which children remained trapped with the gunman for more than an hour as nearly 400 law enforcement officers arrived at the school and encountered a chaotic scene without leadership.

Several people walked out of the impromptu council chambers roughly 40 minutes in when Prado said one of the issues that police encountered was crowd control. Some families tried to breach police tape to run into the school and try rescuing their children, some of whom ultimately died while others had called their parents and 911 pleading for help.

Following the presentation and right before the public hearing, Prado left.

Kimberly Mata-Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among the children killed, slammed a podium in the civic center and in between tears demanded that Prado return to the meeting. A crowd then began chanting, “Bring him back!” One person shouted, “Coward.”

Prado returned five minutes later and sat with an expressionless face, underneath a big white cowboy hat he did not once remove, for the following hour as relatives of those killed castigated him and dismissed his audit as “bullshit,” “a joke” and disrespectful.

“They chose their lives over the lives of children and teachers, and there’s no policy change [that] will eliminate their fear,” Mata-Rubio said in calling for the firing of three officers who remain on the city’s police force.

Brett Cross, whose son Uziyah was killed by the shooter, approached the podium with AJ Martinez, one of the children who survived the shooting.

“I want you to look at this child,” Cross said. “Good faith for 77 minutes? The true heroes are those that passed, those teachers, the survivors are heroes.”

After the public speakers, City Council members echoed the disbelief in the report’s findings and how it was unveiled. One said he wished that Prado had actually presented the report himself and just given copies to families instead of the questioning method that resembled a court hearing.

“For you to come in here and say ‘No, everything was hunky-dory, they did their job,’ I can’t accept that,” Councilmember Hector Luevano said to applause. Luevano, and several other council members, had not reviewed the report prior to the meeting. “I’m insulted by this report. The families deserve more, the community deserves more.”

Apologizing to the crowd, Councilmember Ernest “Chip” King III said Thursday’s presentation was not how the city wanted the information to be released.

[…]

Prado said the lack of cooperation from Uvalde County District Attorney Christina Mitchell hindered the investigation. In December 2022, the city sued Mitchell over her refusal to produce documents. The district attorney agreed to hand over some, but not all, of the information Prado requested.

Mitchell did not respond Thursday to a request for comment.

Prado also said the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District stopped cooperating with him after a few months into his investigation. The city reportedly paid him nearly $100,000 for his work.

See here, here, and here for some background; there’s a ton more if you want to keep reading. I genuinely don’t know what to say other than I figure there will be a lawsuit filed by someone against Prado to get his fee back. I have to wonder just how much the city vetted this guy, and whether there was a clear understanding between him and the city about what exactly they were looking for. I’m just stunned. TPR and the Current have more.

Posted in Crime and Punishment | Tagged , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

It’s budget cut proposal time

A familiar ritual.

Mayor John Whitmire

Facing a projected budget shortfall and costly settlement with the firefighters union, Mayor John Whitmire has directed most city departments to identify potential 5% budget cuts for the coming fiscal year.

Finance Director Melissa Dubowski said Wednesday that the city is set to face a budgetary gap of $160 million in the fiscal year that starts this July. This projection does not factor in any additional expenses from a tentatively reached agreement with the firefighters union aimed at settling a longstanding pay dispute.

To address the looming financial challenge, Dubowski, appointed by Whitmire in January to steer the department, said the city has set a 5% budget reduction target for all departments, excluding police and fire. The police and fire departments combined currently make up about half of the city’s operating budget.

Dubowski acknowledged that the final outcomes might differ based on the specific needs within each department.

“We sent a communication out to get a starting point, to start collaborating and working with departments, and then we’ll evaluate those ideas that the departments come back with to figure out which ones are least impactful to constituents, to services,” Dubowski said during a Wednesday report to City Council.

Whitmire told the Chronicle that implementing a blanket budget cut is far from the ideal solution. He admitted that it will likely require some departments to downsize staff and slash services already strapped for resources. The policy, however, is necessary due to the financial challenges long ignored by previous Houston mayors, he said.

“I don’t like across the board cuts. I think it rewards inefficient operations, departments that kind of ratholed some money or didn’t need all they asked for in the first place, and it punishes those responsible departments,” Whitmire told reporters on Wednesday. “But it’s a place to start a conversation, one to let the council members also know we can’t continue to come up with items that we like. We have to get back to things we’ve got to have.”

[…]

Meanwhile, the administration is also exploring other potential measures, such as eliminating duplicate services across departments, cutting some vacant staff positions, adjusting certain fees and pushing for a voter referendum to exempt public safety operations from the city’s property revenue cap, according to Dubowski.

District C Council Member Abbie Kamin voiced support for making an exception to the revenue cap to boost public safety efforts. Houstonians approved a similar policy in 2006, allowing an additional $90 million to be collected annually for public safety spending.

Kamin also referenced a 2017 10-year plan on improving Houston’s fiscal sustainability, highlighting that many of the cost-saving recommendations were never implemented.

At-Large Council Member Sallie Alcorn, for instance, proposed then the creation of a service-sharing working group to explore how to consolidate operations with other governments, including Harris County. The initiative was estimated by the report to have a high fiscal impact, potentially saving over $10 million.

I appreciate the Mayor’s distaste for across-the-board cuts, which I share. I hope that gets refined in the actual budget, and I note that there’s no dollar amount attached to that proposal. I’m going to guess it’s a fairly modest amount. Mayor Whitmire couldn’t propose cutting the police budget even if he wanted to, as that is now verboten according to state law.

All the other stuff will need to be done as well. The main problem there is that we’ve been doing a lot of those things all along, and the big ticket items are mostly already accomplished. But there is still room for more, and there’s still the stupid revenue cap. We’re not going to cut our way out of this.

Posted in Local politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Ousted Rep. Rogers has some thoughts about why he lost

He’s on the right track. It’s just a question of whether he takes it to the correct destination.

Rep. Glenn Rogers

The corruption that exists at the highest level of Texas state government would have made Governor “Pa” Ferguson blush.

Governor Greg Abbott has defiled the Office of Governor by creating and repeating blatant lies about me and my House colleagues, those who took a stand for our public schools. I stood by the Governor on all his legislative priorities but just one, school vouchers. For just one disagreement, and for a $6 million check from Jeff Yass, a Pennsylvanian TikTok investor, and voucher vendor, Abbott went scorched earth against rural Texas and the Representatives who did their jobs-representing their districts.

My tenure in the Texas House included two general sessions, seven special sessions, redistricting, Covid, winter storm Uri, a Democrat quorum break, expulsion of a House member and the impeachment of Ken Paxton. It also includes a litany of conservative victories that made Texas safer, reigned in out-of-control government bureaucracy, lessened what had become a crushing tax burden on our families and businesses, and fostered economic growth.

[…]

In my first race the opposition was the Wilks, Tim Dunn, Empower Texans, and the entire enterprise of dozens of PACs and “non-profits” they financed. The race ended in a hard fought Covid-delayed runoff victory against Farris Wilks’ son-in-law.

In my second race, my opposition was Wilks and Dunn, Empower Texans (rebranded to Defend Texas Liberty), and the Voucher Lobby, including the American Federation for Children and the School Freedom Fund (based in Virginia). In that race, we dealt with a runoff and an expensive, unnecessary recount.

In my third race the opposition was all the above, but now included a rebranded Defend Texas Liberty (Texans United for a Conservative Majority), vastly greater money from the Voucher Lobby, and Governor Greg Abbott.

This time the millions of dollars spent spreading lies about my record and the non-stop false impugning of my integrity were just too much to overcome. The real losers in this race are:

1) Texas public schools;

2) Rural Texas; and

3) Representative Government.

This morning, I have no regrets. I believe in the words of Sam Houston, “Do right and risk the consequences.”

History will prove Ken Paxton is a corrupt, sophisticated criminal. History will prove vouchers are simply an expensive entitlement program for the wealthy and a get rich scheme for voucher vendors. History will prove Governor Greg Abbott is a liar.

History will prove that our current state government is the most corrupt ever and is “bought” by a few radical dominionist billionaires seeking to destroy public education, privatize our public schools and create a Theocracy that is both un-American and un-Texan.

Rep. Rogers is quite correct about who the villains are here, not just in his own race but in the big picture. But what is he going to do about it? As Campos correctly notes, Republicans like Rogers have benefitted in the past from these same forces. It’s just now that they’re the targets they’re upset about it. (That may be unfair to Rep. Rogers – I haven’t had any real reason to pay attention to him before now, so perhaps he was saying things like this before. I somewhat doubt it, but I can’t say for sure. But it’s definitely true in general.)

The obvious corrective to this is what I said before. It’s on Rep. Rogers and all of the other victims of revenge to invest in some payback. If you want to save the state from those “radical dominionist billionaires”, you have to work to defeat their water carriers in the Lege and the AG’s office and the Governor’s mansion. You can try to do that in the next primary election, but you have to be prepared to keep it up for the general election. These people aren’t on your team. You need to convince your remaining supporters that they’re not on their team, either, and that they have to vote accordingly. Yes, that may mean voting for Democrats. If they don’t like it, well, look at the alternative, as Rep. Rogers has clearly laid out. You can fight back or you can roll over. It’s your choice.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Evaluating the polls

This year we got a set of polls for various Democratic primary races from the UH Hobby Center. Because of the nature of some of the races and the fact that we don’t usually get this kind of polling data, these numbers got tossed around a lot in the early voting period. I thought this was as good a time to go back and compare the poll numbers to the actual election results, so we can see how well they did. If we’re going to get this kind of polling in the future, it would be nice to know what kind of confidence level to have in them.

The first batch included the US Senate race (for Harris County only) and the four countywide offices. Here’s the breakdown:

US Senate poll numbers – Colin Allred 66%, Roland Gutierrez 7%
US Senate actual numbers – Colin Allred 64%, Roland Gutierrez 10% (Harris County only)

District Attorney poll numbers – Sean Teare 59%, Kim Ogg 21%
District Attorney actual numbers – Sean Teare 75%, Kim Ogg 25%

County Attorney poll numbers – Christian Menefee 41%, UA Lewis 7%
County Attorney actual numbers – Christian Menefee 70%, UA Lewis 30%

Sheriff poll numbers – Ed Gonzalez 63%, next best candidate 5%
Sheriff actual numbers – Ed Gonzalez 67%, next best candidate 16%

Tax Assessor poll numbers – Annette Ramirez 12%, next three candidates between 5 and 7%
Tax Assessor actual numbers – Annette Ramirez 41%, next three candidates between 15 and 18%

Gotta say, overall this is a strong performance. They underestimated Sean Teare, but had him well over 50% and with a dominant margin. Christian Menefee probably had less name recognition than some other candidates otherwise he might have scored higher, but again they got the basic fact of a large lead correct. I’ll give them a pass on the Tax Assessor race as name recognition there was low, but again they identified the leader and found a tight bunch after that. Really, this is close to a grade A performance.

The second batch had Congressional and legislative races, and it was more chaotic.

CD07 poll numbers – Rep. Lizzie Fletcher 78%, Pervez Agwan 11%
CD07 actual numbers – Rep. Lizzie Fletcher 82%, Pervez Agwan 18% (Harris County only)

CD18 poll numbers – Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee 43%, Amanda Edwards 38%, Robert Slater 3%
CD18 actual numbers – Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee 60%, Amanda Edwards 37%, Robert Slater 3%

SD15 poll numbers – Rep. Jarvis Johnson 18%, Molly Cook 18%, Todd Litton 14%, others less than 10%
SD15 actual numbers – Rep. Jarvis Johnson 36%, Molly Cook 21%, Todd Litton 16%, others less than 11%

HD139 poll numbers – Rosalind Caesar 12%, Angie Thibodeaux 10%, Charlene Ward Johnson 8%, Mo Jenkins 4%, Jerry Ford 4%
HD139 actual numbers – Angie Thibodeaux 33%, Charlene Ward Johnson 24%, Mo Jenkins 18%, Rosalind Caesar 17%, Jerry Ford 8%

HD142 poll numbers – Rep. Harold Dutton 38%, Danny Norris 7%, Joyce Marie Chatman 6%, Clint Dan Horn 6%
HD142 actual numbers – Rep. Harold Dutton 61%, Danny Norris 19%, Joyce Marie Chatman 15%, Clint Dan Horn 5%

HD146 poll numbers – Rep. Shawn Thierry 40%, Lauren Ashley Simmons 16%, Ashton Woods 4%
HD146 actual numbers – Lauren Ashley Simmons 49.5%, Rep. Shawn Thierry 45.4%, Ashton Woods 6%

Not quite as impressive. The CD07 poll is a little confusing because that district includes a piece of Fort Bend County as well, but the poll was only of Harris County voters. Harris is most of CD07 but Fort Bend was much friendlier to Agwan, who took 46% of the vote there. That made the actual final result 74-26 for Rep. Fletcher, but the Harris portion was accurate enough. That was the best result, with HD142 in second place – they got the big lead for Rep. Dutton, just not with a big enough number for him. But the basic idea was right, so close enough.

The rest? Meh. Their result in CD18 promoted a narrative that CD18 was close, maybe even too close to call, when it was not. My guess is they didn’t have a good model of voter ages – it was an old electorate, and the older voters strongly favored Rep. Jackson Lee.

SD15 did pick the top two contestants, but halved Rep. Johnson’s support, which in this context seems like a pretty big miss. The poll would make you think it was neck and neck between Johnson and Molly Cook with Todd Litton right behind, but Johnson had a substantial lead over Cook. Not sure if they didn’t have a good model of Black voters or if they just got a sufficiently significant no response rate to skew the final result.

I did say when I posted about these polls that the State House races were likely too unreliable due to small samples to really mean anything. The results speak for themselves, as they completely whiffed on the order (and thus the runoff participants) in HD139, and had Rep. Thierry up by a lot in HD146 when in fact she barely missed losing outright. It was close between her and Lauren Ashley Simmons, but they had the leader wrong. Again, I’m not sure what caused that, but those races are the toughest to call. I’m glad they did these, but this is the reminder to take them with the largest grains of salt.

So I’d give the first batch an A minus, and the second batch a C, maybe C minus. Kudos for the undertaking, I hope we see more of it, just remember to use individual poll results with great care and more than a little doubt.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Evaluating the polls

Boca Chica land swap allowed to proceed

I still dunno, man.

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Commission voted unanimously Monday to pursue an exchange that would give 43 acres of Boca Chica State Park in Cameron County to Elon Musk’s SpaceX spacecraft company.

The state park land would be swapped for 477 acres adjacent to Laguna Atascosa National Wildlife Refuge, an area the agency has been interested in for many years because it’s “one of the most biologically diverse regions in North America” and provides habitat for endangered species and migratory birds, the agency said.

The vote grants Texas Parks and Wildlife Department staff the authority to begin negotiations with SpaceX for the land swap, including conducting environmental assessments that could take up to 18 months.

At a press conference after the meeting, Several South Texas community and environmental groups held signs reading “protect Boca Chica Beach” and said they are disappointed with the agency’s decision.

Boca Chica, a 1,354-acre park located at Texas’ southernmost point along the Gulf Coast, about 20 miles east of Brownsville, has long been a favorite swimming and fishing destination for the majority Hispanic community in the Rio Grande Valley.

At Monday’s TPWD meeting in Austin — the last opportunity for people to give feedback on the land swap — almost all chairs were occupied and people stood in the back. During nearly four hours of public testimony, most speakers opposed the exchange, including some who drove more than 300 miles to Austin from Brownsville in three minivans.

“Boca Chica Beach is the first place that my little brother went to a beach. I went there the day my sister was born and most recently I spread my uncle’s ashes there. Please do not give SpaceX an inch because they will take a mile,” said Emma Guevara, who grew up in Brownsville and is now a member of South Texas Environmental Justice Network and a field organizer in Brownsville for the Sierra Club.

Stephanie Garcia, a TPWD spokesperson said in an email last week the exchange would not affect public beach access through the park or along State Highway 4. Garcia said the 477 acres the state would receive is located along the Lower Laguna Madre — the shallow bay between the coast and South Padre Island — and would increase public beach access.

Garcia added that the small tracts that make up the 43 acres the state is exchanging do not include any water frontage and are surrounded by private properties or existing SpaceX facilities. According to the agency, the land the state is receiving could be used for fishing, kayaking, hiking, camping and birding.

[…]

This was the second time the agency scheduled a vote on the Boca Chica land swap — the first was delayed in late January after public backlash by conservationists and some South Texas residents who said the deal was being rushed and TPWD violated its open meetings code by not providing enough notice to Spanish speakers about the proposal.

Cameron County Judge Eddie Treviño Jr., who originally opposed the land swap because TPWD did not involve him in the decision making, said he now supports it for conservation reasons.

“This land (the state would receive) is a treasure trove of biodiversity,” Treviño said at the meeting. “Let us embrace this opportunity to safeguard our natural heritage, foster community engagement and create enduring legacies for generations to come.”

Environmental groups and community members are not convinced, pointing out that SpaceX has restricted public access to the beach before.

See here for the background. I still don’t know what to make of this. On the surface it seems reasonable, but there’s a lot of vociferous disagreement with it anyway. Maybe the negotiations and environmental assessments will help overcome some of those objections. Maybe the negotiations will fall apart and this will get filed away under “wasn’t meant to be”. The Elon factor makes me more skeptical of this than I would be otherwise. Like I said, I dunno. The Chron has more.

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Dispatches from Dallas, March 8 edition

This is a weekly feature produced by my friend Ginger. Let us know what you think.

This week, in news from Dallas-Fort Worth, primary coverage. And more primary coverage. And some primary analysis, even. This week’s post was brought to you by the music of Air, whose tickets I plan to get early Friday, and Phoenix. It’s a French music kind of day.

The big news is obviously the outcomes of Tuesday’s primaries. As I write on Thursday afternoon, it’s mostly clear who won, who lost, and who’s going to a runoff. The analyses are coming out all over the state and local media. Let’s have a look.

First, how was voting? They had long wait times in Collin County and some minor problems in Irving and Denton but the big loser, unsurprisingly, was Tarrant County, which didn’t have a joint primary and ended up with Democratic voters zipping in and out while Republicans waited in line. Part of the problem was that the county was tracking wait times but failed to share them. Meanwhile, early voting reports were not great: fewer than 10% voted in Dallas County; in Tarrant County Republican early voting was up by about 50% and Democratic voting was down by half compared to 2020; and WFAA has regional numbers by county for the stat-heads.

Before we get into results, I’d also like to note this NBC piece from just before the runoff for Matt Rinaldi’s comments. And, in absolutely terrible timing, Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker endorsed Nikki Haley on Monday only to see Haley crushed, as expected, on Super Tuesday and suspend her campaign on Wednesday. Ouch.

We have some general coverage of the election results from the Dallas Observer and D Magazine. But let’s get to the nitty-gritty:

  • The Star-Telegram has a list of Tarrant County races going to a runoff, most of which we’ll touch on below.
  • Similarly, the Fort Worth Report has a list of the US House races in Tarrant County for your summary reading pleasure.
  • CD 12: is going to a runoff on the Republican side between Craig Goldman and John O’Shea. Goldman voted to impeach Ken Paxton in the House and O’Shea is a friend of Paxton’s. Enough said. See the DMN for more details.
  • CD 26: Brandon Gill won the Republican primary pretty solidly here, beating out Southlake Mayor John Huffman and nepo baby Scott Armey. Gill is also a nepo baby: he’s Dinesh D’Souza’s son-in-law.
  • CD 32: Julie Johnson won the Democratic primary to replace Colin Allred, edging out 9 other candidates, including trauma surgeon Brian Williams. More from the Texas Tribune.
  • SD 16, which is my Senate District: Our incumbent Nathan Johnson won decisively over Victoria Neave Criado. I hadn’t realized that there was no Republican contender in this primary, which is a huge change from when I moved up here 5 1/2 years ago. This seat used to be held by Don Huffines! It’s now considered safe Democratic, which is a combination of redistricting and the bluing of Dallas. Again, check the Texas Tribune for more.
  • SD 30: Brent Hagenbuch and Jace Yarborough are headed to a runoff in the Republican primary. Hagenbuch is dealing with residence qualification allegations, although nobody expects that to go anywhere. This was an open safe Republican district, and I had to click through to the DMN election results page to find out who the Democratic candidates were: Michael Braxton and Dale Frey are going to a runoff.
  • HD 108, my district: Morgan Meyer, one of the House impeachment managers, held off a Ken Paxton-fuelled challenge by the skin of his teeth. The DMN had an analysis piece on this race: Dan Patrick and Paxton supported the challenger, but Abbott supported Meyer. On the Democratic side, perpetual candidate Liz Ginsberg beat challenger Yasmin Simon, but I had to go to the DMN results page to get the details. I suspect the contributions by Simon to a Republican representative mentioned in the DMN endorsement of Ginsberg are what cost her the election.
  • HD 97: Cheryl Bean and John McQueeney are headed to a runoff for Craig Goldman’s old seat in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Diane Symons and Carlos Walker are headed to a runoff.
  • HD 91: Incumbent Stephanie Klick was forced into a runoff by repeat challenger David Lowe in the Republican primary. Lowe is a Defend Texas Liberty funding recipient and she voted to impeach Paxton. The Star-Telegram has more.
  • HD 67: Jeff Leach survived a revenge primary by a supporter of his old Collin County buddy Ken Paxton.
  • HD 65: Paxton took a head here: Mitch Little beat out incumbent Kronda Thimesch in the Republican primary. Little was one of Paxton’s impeachment trial lawyers and Thimesch was another pro-impeachment vote. Also note that Patriot Mobile had their fingers in this pie; they brought Steve Bannon to rally with Ken Paxton for Little.
  • HD 62: I regret to inform you that COVID hairdresser Shelley Luther is back. She beat incumbent Reggie Smith in the Republican primary. I had to hit the Texas Tribune results page to find out that Luther will have a Democratic opponent in November.
  • HD 61: A Paxton revenge primary forced incumbent Frederick Frazier into a runoff, with the challenger almost 8 points ahead (per the DMN election page).
  • HD 33: Still another Paxton revenge primary forced incumbent Justin Holland into a runoff (per the DMN election page).
  • HD 2: In a reversal of the recent special election, Brent Money beat Jill Dutton in the Republican primary. Again, the Tribune pages tell me the Dems do have an opponent ready. Here’s a local paper’s reporting, since I didn’t see a piece in the DMN. Note that the local paper is also relying on the Tribune!
  • SBOE 11: In bad news, twenty-year incumbent Pat Hardy lost to a well-funded 27-year-old pastor in the Republican primary. The DMN has some analysis: How a North Texas race could push Texas’ education board further right. Yikes. The DMN’s coverage also includes other area SBOE primary races that are going to runoffs, some paid for by the same PAC that helped pastor Brandon Hall take down Hardy. See more on this entire mess in the Texas Tribune.
  • The Dallas GOP has chosen perpetually mobile grifter Allen West as their Chair. I wish them everything they deserve for their choice.
  • Dallas County Commissioners Theresa McDaniel (my precinct) and John Wiley Price easily fended off primary challengers in the Democratic primaries here. We got a lot of mail for McDaniel but I didn’t even know that she had a challenger other than by the amount of mail we were getting for her. As for Price “Our Man Downtown” was in no danger. He’s South Dallas’ favorite because he brings home the bacon.
  • Our Sherriff’s race has a runoff in the Democratic primary: incumbent Marian Brown and her predecessor, Lupe Valdez, whom those of you in other parts of the state may remember from her run for governor in 2018. This is a runoff vote I will actually be eligible for so I guess it’s time to study up.

The general consensus in local media is that the Republican Party is moving to the right and that Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton are the winners so far. Unsurprisingly everybody on the Republican side feels hard done by: the DMN thinks people on both sides are too mean to centrists and the Star-Telegram’s Mark Davis, also a right-wing radio guy, thinks people are being deceptively unfair to folks like Brandon Gill on the far right. (He also thinks Defend Texas Liberty is grassroots and it’s unfair to align the people they support with Nick Fuentes.) And the Dallas Observer interviewed a historian who links the meanness of the Republican revenge tour with the KKK’s voter intimidation tactics a hundred years ago.

Everyone seems to agree the big winner from Tuesday’s primaries is Governor Abbott: the Star-Telegram’s News analyst Bud Kennedy; their editorial board (who think Paxton is going to call the win his); our local NBC affiliate’s analyst, who thinks Abbott might get vouchers passed next year; Axios; KERA; and the DMN’s education analysts. Where Ken Paxton is concerned, the question is more complicated, according to KERA. What was the difference? Abbott put his money where his mouth was and Paxton didn’t.

The DMN calls the the GOP primary “a watershed moment in state politics” because nine incumbents were defeated and eight more may lose in the runoff. The Star-Telegram’s analysis calls this “[o]utsider vs. establishment politics” but how a slate supported by the presumptive GOP nominee for president and the governor of Texas can be “outsiders” is mystifying to me. I know they really mean culture-war MAGATs when they say outsiders and they mean business Republicans not interested in the culture wars when they say “establishment”, but I agree with the DMN that this is more about bringing the hard-right politicking of the Senate to the House. For similar reasons, I’m not comfortable with the Texas Tribune labeling the challengers as “insurgents”, especially when they’re well-financed by billionaires, as this Fort Worth Report article on the shift in Tarrant County GOP politics describes. Unusually, I find myself in agreement with Star-Telegram columnist Mark Davis: change is in the wind on the GOP side. Also, blood is in the water.

And it’s going to stay there until the runoff on May 28. Check the DMN and the Star-Telegram for the details, and may the least bad Republican win.

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Initial thoughts on the 2024 primary

Some opening considerations as we peruse the final unofficial voting data. Before you read my words, go check out Stace, Campos, Reform Austin, and the Texas Signal. Here we go:

– Final turnout in Harris County was 176,396 for Dems and 203,085 for the GOP. About 59% of Dems voted early, about 54% of Republicans voted early, which means that 2024 was most like 2022 for Dems in terms of when the vote happened, and pretty similar to four of the six most recent primaries for Republicans. Maybe early voting turnout is trending higher for primaries as it finally did for city elections, but remember that in 2028 Dems won’t have an incumbent President on the ballot, and I am extremely hesitant to guess what effect that might have.

– I still don’t have an exact total of registered voters yet, so I don’t know what turnout as a percentage of RVs was. I expect we’ll have that when the official canvass comes out. In terms of volume, 2024 was slightly higher than 2018 and 2022 for Dems and slightly better than 2020 for Republicans.

– Most of the comparisons people make for the Dem side is with 2016 or 2020, but I think 2012 is the closest comparison, since it was the last time we had a Presidential primary with an incumbent President with no serious challengers. As far as that goes, President Biden got 84.59% of the vote statewide, which compares reasonably favorably to President Obama’s 88.18% that year. Obama’s opponents were the definition of no-names – I’ll give you $1 right now if you could name any of those people without clicking that link or using Google. That said, Stace noticed some less than stellar numbers for Biden in some heavily Latino counties, and a cursory glance on my part affirms this. I’ll wait to see Stace’s analysis, but it’s fair to say there’s work to be done.

– Or maybe it was just one of those weird things.

A little-known Democratic presidential candidate vowing to put former President Donald Trump on trial for treason went viral after his unexpectedly strong Super Tuesday performance in South Texas.

Armando Perez-Serrato, a Californian running a protest campaign against President Joe Biden, racked up thousands of votes in at least three Rio Grande Valley counties’ Democratic primaries, peeling off support for the incumbent.

Perez-Serrato, who also wants to give Trump the death penalty, according to his website, landed nearly 5,000 votes in Hidalgo County’s Democratic primary, coming in second place with 15% of the vote. Biden won around 66% of the vote there.

Perez-Serrato also performed unexpectedly well in neighboring Cameron County, garnering nearly 2,000 votes and coming in second place with 11%. In Webb County, he pulled 14% of the electorate, or 2,500 votes.

[…]

Other than being staunchly anti-Trump, Perez-Serrato’s platform includes a 50% bump in monthly social security checks and recognizing an independent Palestinian state, which some social-media onlookers said might have contributed to his Tuesday surprise.

I look forward to the New York Times sending a reporter to a diner in Brownsville asking Perez-Serrato supporters about their reasons for their preference.

– As noted yesterday, Rep. Jarvis Johnson and Molly Cook are in the primary runoff for SD15. They are also two of the four candidates that filed for the May 4 special election – to be held on the same day as the HCAD election, which is the uniform election date for May – along with Michelle Bonton and Todd Litton. No Republican, no randos, just those four Dems. The primary runoff is May 28, which means the possibility of the primary winner and the special election winner being two different people is still in play. It seems to me that the idea situation is for the special election to go into a runoff with Johnson and Cook as the candidates, so that the eventual loser of the primary runoff can withdraw from the special election runoff and save us all the bother. Light a candle or two for this between now and May 2, will ya?

– Colin Allred avoided a runoff for US Senate, Julie Johnson avoided a runoff in CD32, and outside of SD15 there are like seven legislative runoffs. Turnout for the Dem primary runoff will be brutally small. There just aren’t that many races. One place where there won’t be a runoff is in Johnson’s soon-to-be-former legislative district, HD115, where Cassandra Hernandez won with 58% in a three-candidate field.

– Annette Ramirez will face Desiree Broadnax in the Tax Assessor runoff. I like her chances – she led Broadnax by 23 points, and the two trailing candidates (Jerry Davis and Danielle Keys) were more experienced and better fundraisers. Broadnax may have gotten a first-candidate-listed-on-the-ballot benefit.

– The total runoff lineup for Harris County Dems: SD15, HD139, HD146, 14th Court of Appeals Place 3, 486th Criminal District Court, Tax Assessor, and Constable Precinct 3. Tax Assessor and the two judicials are countywide, the others will depend on where you live.

– Republicans have seven Congressional runoffs, five in blue districts plus CDs 12 and 23, and multiple runoffs for SBOE, State Senate, and State House. There will be a lot more billionaire theocrat money getting spent.

– Gillespie County did finish its hand count of primary ballots by yesterday before noon, so good for them. They only had 8K ballots to count, which made it possible to do in a non-hopeless time frame. I’d bet if they counted again, they’d get different numbers, but I suppose as long as no one sues no one will ever have to consider that possibility in an official capacity. Votebeat provided a recap of the adventure.

Bruce Campbell, chairman of the Gillespie County Republican Party, predicted that results from the 13 GOP precincts would start trickling into the county elections office by 8:30 p.m.

By 9:30 p.m., he expressed surprise that none had returned.

Shortly after, he informed county Elections Director Jim Riley it might be hours before workers finished hand counting the thousands of early and mailed ballots — a task they’d begun at 7:30 that morning in a glass-walled tasting room at a winery called The Resort at Fredericksburg.

“Are you kidding me?” Riley said.

Campbell wasn’t kidding, or even hedging. In the end, the counting took all night long.

[…]

It was not the efficient process Republicans envisioned, though one carried out with no visible calamity. From start to finish, the process took almost 24 consecutive hours and involved around 200 people counting ballots. It remains to be seen if any of the candidates on the ballot will challenge the results, or whether this count will withstand next week’s official canvass. Texas law only requires that elections conducted on electronic tabulation equipment undergo a partial recount, so there is no such requirement here.

“You saw how this went,” Riley told Votebeat at 5 a.m., when all party members had departed the office. “This was a circus.” He said he’d withhold judgment on whether the count was accurate because he didn’t have eyes and ears in the rooms where it happened.

For their part, the Democrats conducted their primary with the help of the county using the same machines they’ve used for a few years. Even with paperwork delays and a minor glitch at one polling location, the party was finished counting all of its ballots — around 700 of them — by 10 p.m. It was a light year, as many reliable Democratic voters in the bright red county chose to vote in the Republican primary in order to participate in a contested sheriff’s race.

Campbell said the party’s “original goal” was to have “enough volunteers that we finished counting before the Democrats did.”

“Clearly, that didn’t happen,” he said.

They’re ready to do it again. Some lessons have to be learned the hard way. I’ll have more thoughts tomorrow.

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Three Ken Paxton updates

I missed these in the recent news rush, but spotted them all more or less at once via the Google News app on my phone. Doomscrolling for the win, I guess.

Whistleblowers: Texas Supreme Court must reject Ken Paxton’s ‘scheme’ to delay depositions.

A crook any way you look

Once again in front of the Texas Supreme Court, embattled Attorney General Ken Paxton is asking the state’s highest civil court to toss out his pending, court-ordered deposition or at least greatly limit the scope of what can be asked of him under oath by four former agency employees who argue they were wrongfully terminated after approaching the FBI to report Paxton’s possible misconduct in helping a campaign donor.

Responding to Paxton’s motion to the Supreme Court on Thursday, attorneys for the whistleblowers laid out a litany of arguments to derail what they said was Paxton’s “repugnant ploy” to keep delaying the proceeding in hopes to avoid addressing the whistleblowers’ claims on the record for the first time since the issue arose in 2020.

While Paxton argues the Travis County state District Court ruling mandating his sworn testimony is unnecessary after he filed a motion stating he wouldn’t challenge the facts in the case and would accept any judgment, the whistleblowers maintain that there remains a dispute in the case and that Paxton is not immune under any legal statute to evade the ordered deposition.

“The trial court did not abuse its discretion; it kept OAG (Office of Attorney General) from abusing the judicial system,” the whistleblowers’ attorneys wrote. “The court refused to endorse OAG’s disloyal scheme to orchestrate a judgment against the state of Texas just so the attorney general and a few of his close colleagues can avoid depositions.”

In January, Paxton had also sought the high court’s intervention to delay his deposition, resulting in a divided ruling forcing Paxton and three of his deputies to comply with the lower court’s order.

[…]

This time around, however, Paxton has altered his request, arguing that a motion to unequivocally accept a final judgement in the case negates the need for the depositions, and if the testimonies were to continue, they should focus on a future settlement and not on the events leading the whistleblowers to approach law enforcement.

“This case then took an extraordinary turn when plaintiffs refused to take “yes” for an answer,” Paxton’s attorneys wrote to the court last month. “Although OAG has both consented to and moved for entry of judgment against itself, plaintiffs have remarkably opposed entry of judgment in their favor.”

Paxton’s current appeal paused the depositions that were previously scheduled to begin with Paxton on Feb. 9.

[…]

“Unable to construe OAG’s pleading as an admission that OAG violated the Whistleblower Act, the trial court cannot lawfully find such a violation until plaintiffs prove it,” the lawyers wrote in advocating for the unencumbered depositions.

The attorneys are also taking issue with Paxton seeking the Supreme Court’s assistance after the Legislature rejected funding his previous settlement.

“It would be inequitable for the state’s judicial branch to assist its executive branch in engineering a judgment that its legislative branch views as a sham,” the attorneys wrote.

Additionally, the whistleblowers on Thursday pointed out several areas of a potential settlement that are yet to be addressed, including the possibility of reinstating the employees with full compensation and benefits, forcing Paxton to amend “retaliatory” personnel and investigation records, and ensuring Paxton refrains from further retaliation against the four whistleblowers.

In closing, the whistleblowers asked that the high court enforce the deposition order, which Paxton had appealed for that court’s intervention twice in January. Paxton’s second, and current request, seeking to stop the depositions came one day before Travis County state District Court Judge Catherine Mauzy ruled to allow the case to continue.

See here and here for some background. For no particular reason, I’m going to use a Catholic analogy to illustrate why SCOTx should reject this latest ploy. Whether you’ve ever been a Catholic or not, you are probably aware of the sacrament of confession, in which the penitent confesses their sins to a priest and receives absolution, which clears the stain of their sins from their soul and puts them back in position to enter heaven, at least until they sin again, once they complete their penance, usually depicted in pop culture as reciting some number of Hail Marys and Our Fathers. The thing about confession is that it’s not actually a get-out-of-sin-free card. Turns out, you have to actually mean it in order to be absolved. If you’re still in a state of sin, you cannot be absolved. That may mean that you are still doing the thing you’ve confessed to – still cheating on your wife, committing securities fraud, that sort of thing – but it also may mean that you haven’t renounced the thing you’ve confessed to, admitted to its sinfulness, and promised to not do it again. In other words, if you confess to a thing but continue to claim – publicly, or in your heart – that you are innocent and never actually did that thing, you don’t get the absolution you seek. You’re still a sinner before God and your soul remains in mortal jeopardy. I will leave it as an exercise to the reader to see how this applies to this legal proceeding.

Judge blocks Texas from collecting info on transgender children receiving gender-affirming care.

A Texas judge on Friday temporarily blocked state Attorney General Ken Paxton from forcing an LGBTQ+ advocacy group to hand over information about transgender children receiving gender-affirming medical care.

The ruling came just one day after PFLAG National went to court to try to stop Paxton’s office from getting the information.

Travis County District Court Judge Maria Cantú Hexsel said in an order that providing the information would harm PFLAG and its members in several ways, including violating their rights of free speech, association and protection from unreasonable searches. Additionally, the judge said, it would be a “gross invasion” of privacy.

A hearing was scheduled for March 25 to give the attorney general’s office a chance to make the case for why Friday’s order shouldn’t continue.

See here for the background, and here for a statement from Lambda Legal. I suppose it’s possible Paxton could try to get this order lifted, but I don’t see any further news on this as yet. Spectrum News has more.

Texas court tosses Paxton lawsuit against Yelp over labeling of ‘crisis pregnancy centers’.

A Bastrop County state District Court on Friday shot down Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s lawsuit against Yelp for labeling “crisis pregnancy centers,” which often counsel women against having abortions, with disclaimers stating that they “typically provide limited medical services” and do not provide abortions.

After the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 dismantled federal abortion protections established in Roe v. Wade, Yelp posted disclaimers on its site to alert potential customers that the centers “may not have licensed medical professionals onsite.” In February 2023, Yelp updated the notices to state that the crisis pregnancy centers do not provide abortion services.

The attorney general’s office sued Yelp on Sept. 28 for supposedly violating Texas’ Deceptive Trade Practices Act, arguing that the notices were “misleading and often untrue because pregnancy resource centers frequently do provide medical services with licensed medical professionals onsite,” though that information does not directly contradict the language of the notices.

Republican Judge Reva Towslee-Corbett dismissed all claims against Yelp “with prejudice,” which means that the court’s decision was based on the merits of the case and that Paxton cannot file the same lawsuit in the 355th District Court again. Towslee-Corbett also granted Yelp’s objection, thereby agreeing that the state of Texas did not have the jurisdiction to bring its claims.

“We are pleased with the court’s decision, which rightfully recognizes the case should never have been filed in Texas,” said Haynes Boone media law attorney Laura Prather, who represented Yelp. “We are dedicated to protecting our clients’ right to free speech.”

[…]

In an emailed statement, Yelp stood by its decision to label the pregnancy centers and called the lawsuit meritless.

The company noted that Paxton had referred to labels stating the centers do not provide abortions as “accurate.” Yelp called the lawsuit filed by Paxton’s office a concerning attempt to subvert First Amendment rights.

I missed that story when it happened, but I have written about the concentrated bullshit that is crisis pregnancy centers before. Everything Yelp said was true, and even some Republican judges don’t like to tolerate lying. I hope that Judge Towslee-Corbett doesn’t have to run again until 2028, because we know how Ken Paxton reacts to judges who don’t kowtow to him.

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Art Car Museum announces its closure

Bummer.

Leaders of the Art Car Museum announced their intention to close after nearly 30 years in its Houston Heights location, according to a statement on its website. The announcement comes not long after both the museum’s founders, Ann O’Connor Williams Harithas and her husband James Harithas, passed away in 2021 and 2023.

The Art Car Museum is a contemporary art museum that was founded in 1998 to showcase the growing art car movement, which, according to the Art Car manifesto published by James Harithas in 1997, turns cars from a “factory-made commodity into a personal statement or expression,” and represents the changes in “popular consciousness.”

The Art Car Museum mixes the traditions of fine, folk and public art together to cultivate its aesthetic, and it exhibits not just art cars and other vehicles, but also artwork of other mediums from artists around the world.

The museum’s founder, Ann Harithas, comes from a legacy Texas ranching and oil family, and has founded two other museums with her husband James, The Station Museum in Houston (which has been temporarily closed since 2022) and the Five Points Museum of Contemporary Art in Victoria, Texas.

The Art Car and Five Points Museums have been kept alive by a trust that Ann Harithas’ children opened after her death in 2021, in order to fund the two years of exhibitions she had planned, according to a story in Texas Monthly on the family. But the couple did not create their own foundation before their deaths to keep the three museums going, nor did they leave instructions for their heirs on what to do with the properties. The futures of each museum are uncertain, although there is reportedly an emphasis on keeping the Victoria museum in operation above the other two.

There have been alleged talks with local and regional art organizations on how to continue the Art Car Museum’s legacy, according to the museum’s website. When available, those in charge will share the details publicly, the statement reads.

I’ve only been to the Art Car Museum once, I took the girls there when they were little. It’s small, more for adult enthusiasts than for kids. The actual space it’s in is nothing special – near the train tracks, next to a gas station, no street parking anywhere nearby – but its contents are unique and very much a part of Houston. I would like to think that there’s a place for its treasures somewhere in town, perhaps in more than one spot but still available to the public. Hopefully we’ll hear more soon. CultureMap has more.

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Texas blog roundup for the week of February 4

The Texas Progressive Alliance is basking in the warmth of spring training games as it brings you this week’s roundup.

Continue reading

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Primary 2024 results: Democratic headlines

It’s going to be a late night and I have a couple of long days ahead of me, so I’m going to do some quick summaries based on what I now know, and will come back later to fill the gaps.

– President Biden was over 90% in Harris County in early voting. The statewide results were very scattered – as of almost 10 PM there were still multiple counties whose early votes, let alone Election Day results, were not yet posted – but he was at about 86%.

– Colin Allred was at 60% statewide and almost 70% in Harris County and was already declared the winner for the Senate primary.

– Rep. Lizzie Fletcher had over 80% in Harris County and over 70% total, winning renomination easily. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee was at 62%, far outpacing the one poll we had in that race. Amanda Edwards was at 35% and that dude who dropped out was at 2%. Melissa McDonough and Marquette Greene-Scott were both cruising to victory. In Dallas, Rep. Julia Johnson was just about 50% for CD32 when I last looked; Brian Williams was comfortably in second with about 21% in case she fails to stay above the magic number.

– Rep. Jarvis Johnson was at 39% in early voting in SD15, with Molly Cook at 20% and Todd Litton at 16%; no one else was over ten percent. The one big State Senate primary outside of Harris County was in SD16 in Dallas, where Sen. Nathan Johnson turned back Rep. Victoria Neave.

– Rep. Harold Dutton was over 60% (sigh), but HD146 was very close, with Rep. Shawn Thierry just under fifty percent and Lauren Ashley Simmons only a few points behind. Thierry could climb above 50%, but I think this one will go to a runoff. In HD139, Angie Thibodeaux and Charlene Ward Johnson were leading, likely by enough to make it to overtime.

– I’m sure you already knew this before you started reading, but Sean Teare blew out incumbent DA Kim Ogg, with over 78% of the early vote. That’s an even stronger win than County Attorney Christian Menefee (74%) and Sheriff Ed Gonzalez (70%). For Tax Assessor, Annette Ramirez was the clear leader with just over 40%, with Danielle Bess, Jerry Davis, and Desiree Broadnax all bunched up for the second slot in the runoff.

– A few incumbent judges were trailing: Justices Gordon Goodman, Peter Kelly, and Jerry Zimmerer (currently in second place and a runoff with Velda Faulkner), and judges RK Sandill, Mike Engelhart, Robert Schaffer, Brittanye Morris, Ramona Jackson, and Julia Maldonado. Other incumbents were leading. Nicole Perdue, Ashley Mayes Guice, and Fran Watson were leading for three of the open benches, while Vivian King and Gemayel Haynes were headed to a runoff for the other.

– Katherine Culbert was leading for Railroad Commissioner, while DaSean Jones and Bonnie Lee Goldstein were leading for the two contested Supreme Court seats.

– Based on the Harris County Elections Twitter feed, I think Election Day is going to be well below early voting in turnout. If the last hour was strong and Dems had a fairly sizeable majority of the E-Day vote, they could make it to 200K total in the county, but I’m guessing they will fall short of that. They could still outdo the Republicans with a more modest majority of the E-Day vote. We won’t know that until early in the morning.

That’s all for now. I’ll circle back to this tomorrow. Based on what happened in some of those Republican races, there are a few pretty good legislative pickup opportunities.

UPDATE: As of 4:30 AM, with some vote centers still unreported, Lauren Ashley Simmons had taken the lead in HD146 and was at 49.79% of the vote. It’s possible she could end up winning without a runoff. Wow.

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Primary 2024 results: Republican headlines

It’s going to be a late night and I have a couple of long days ahead of me, so I’m going to do some quick summaries based on what I now know, and will come back later to fill the gaps.

– The Former Guy was at about 78% statewide and 76% in Harris County. Nikki Haley was at 17 and 18 percent, respectively. When the party’s over…

– Rep. Tony Gonzales in CD23 was the only threatened Congressional incumbent; he was leading with about 46% and could maybe avoid a runoff, with Brandon Herrera next in line. State Rep. Craig Goldman was leading the pack in the open CD12, while Brandon Gill actually had 57% (just early votes so far) in the cattle call that is CD26. That’s kind of impressive.

– All three Court of Criminal Appeals Justices that were targeted by Ken Paxton were losing, with two of them getting crushed and Michelle Slaughter down by a more respectable margin of about seven points. I never thought it possible to feel a twinge of sympathy for Sharon Keller, but here we are. Worst judge John Devine was leading in his Supreme Court race, but just by two points. It would not suck if he lost, even if just in the primary. Railroad Commissioner Christi “I’ll Show You How A Real Nepo Baby Does It” Craddick was leading in her multi-candidate race, but just at about 53%.

– The legislative races are a mess. Some of the incumbents targeted by Greg Abbott and/or Ken Paxton are losing, some are winning, some others are headed to runoffs. Rep. Steve Allison in HD121, the Sarah Davis of Bexar County, appears to be going down. That’s now very much a top-tier pickup opportunity. I’ll have to sort through the rest to see what else might be available.

– Rep. Lacey Hull appears to be a winner over Jared Woodfill in HD138. You know how I feel about that one. Rep. Jacey Jetton was losing in his race in HD26. You know how I feel about that one, too.

– Speaker Dade Phelan had a tiny lead in HD21 after trailing by a slightly larger but still tiny amount in early voting. It’s a three-person race and this one looks sure to be a runoff. Someone with a more extensive knowledge of Texas legislative history will have to tell us who the last sitting House Speaker to lose re-election was. Not Gib Lewis, at least.

– What’s the over/under on how long it takes hand count their ballots?

UPDATE: As of 4:30 AM, there are still some Harris County votes to be counted. Looking at the details of the statewide primary, the only other unreported results are from Gillespie County, where eight of 14 precincts are in (Harris has 475 of 545 in). Great job, Gillespie County! Speaker Phelan fell back behind his challenger and heads to the runoff as the second-place finisher. Not great for him.

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Today is Primary Day 2024

From the inbox:

Election Day for the first-ever Joint Primary Elections in Harris County is tomorrow, March 5. More than 500 vote centers will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for voters to cast their ballots. Voters can cast their ballots at any vote center in Harris County under the countywide polling place program. For a list of vote centers and wait times, go to www.HarrisVotes.com.

“Over 211,000 votes were cast during the 11-day Early Voting period,” said Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth, the county’s chief election official. “It is always exciting to witness voters embracing the early voting option. For those who have not voted yet, they still have [today].”

Political parties conduct primary elections to select candidates for the November general election. While this is a presidential election year, voters will vote for candidates vying for federal, state, and local positions. In Harris County, the Democratic Primary has 119 races, and the Republican Primary has 122. However, voters will only see from 56 to 65 contests on their ballots, depending on where they are registered and the primary election they are voting in. Click here to view and print a sample ballot.

“Thanks to the collaborative efforts of everyone involved, we have reached this historic moment. The hard work of both the Republican and Democratic parties, along with my incredible team, has prepared us for our inaugural joint primary elections,” added Clerk Hudspeth.

Election Day Tips:

– You can take your printed sample ballot or any written materials with you into the voting booth
– The use of phones or cameras is NOT allowed within 100 ft. of the voting area
– The following forms of photo ID are acceptable when voting in person:

  • Texas Driver’s License issued by the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS)
  • Texas Election Identification Certificate issued by DPS
  • Texas Personal Identification Card issued by DPS
  • Texas Handgun License issued by DPS
  • United States Military Identification Card containing the person’s photograph
  • United States Citizenship Certificate containing the person’s photograph
  • United States Passport (book or card)

Voters who do not possess and cannot obtain one of these forms of photo ID may fill out a Reasonable Impediment Declaration (RID) at a vote center and present another supporting form of ID, such as a utility bill, bank statement, government check, or voter registration certificate.

Unofficial election results will be posted at www.HarrisVotes.com as they come in on election night, starting after 7 p.m. with early voting and ballot-by-mail results. Official results will be posted after the canvass is completed.

Stay connected on social media at @HarrisVotes for news and updates.

You can find a map of vote centers here and an alphabetical list of them here. There are 545 centers, you can vote at any of them, and for the most part they’re pretty close together so if for whatever the reason you don’t like one, there are plenty of other options. There are plenty of stories out there about early voting turnout, none of which seem to account for the fact that how much voting is done early can vary greatly. Happy voting if you haven’t done it already, and I’ll be back tomorrow with results.

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The Fifth Circuit remains extremely on brand

Of all the Fifth Circuits in the world, they’re the Fifth Circuitest.

A new law empowering state authorities to arrest and deport migrants seeking asylum in the United States may soon take effect after an appeals court stepped in to override a lower court order blocking the law.

The 5th U.S.Circuit Court of Appeals’ order would set aside the lower court ruling in seven days. If the Supreme Court does not intervene by then, the law, known as Senate Bill 4, could take effect while the legal battle over whether it is constitutional plays out in court. The conservative appeals court did not explain the decision, issued Saturday.

The law, passed last fall by the GOP-led Legislature, would push the bounds of state enforcement of immigration law long left solely to the federal government. The law would make it a crime to enter the state from Mexico without permission, and it would allow any law enforcement officer in Texas to arrest migrants they suspect of entering illegally and empower judges to order their removal.

[…]

Stephen Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said the 5th Circuit appeared to be forcing the Supreme Court’s hand.

“Just to drive this home, the Fifth Circuit is effectively *forcing* #SCOTUS to rule *by Saturday* on whether it will allow the most aggressive attempt by a state to create its own immigration policy to go into effect,” Vladeck wrote on social media. “Another high-stakes emergency forced by the court of appeals.”

See here for the background and here for Prof. Vladeck’s commentary, which includes an image of the order, which calls for an expedited hearing on the merits of the case but didn’t specify a date. Forcing SCOTUS to take action was always the plan here, since as noted existing precedent from the ancient days of 2010 would make this a slam dunk for the feds. But SCOTUS has different members now, and its majority is happy to throw out precedents it doesn’t like, so why not shoot the moon. It’s utterly cold blooded, and it may well work. TPR and the Trib have more.

UPDATE: SCOTUS did the thing.

The U.S. Supreme Court temporarily halted a new state law on Monday evening allowing Texas police to arrest people suspected of crossing the Texas-Mexico border illegally from going into effect.

The nation’s highest court stayed a decision from the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that would have allowed police to enforce the law as soon as this Saturday. Last Saturday, the New Orleans-based appeals court reversed a lower court’s ruling that had previously halted the new state law.

The Supreme Court issued a temporary stay until March 13 while the court considers whether it will allow the state to enforce Senate Bill 4.

Everything remains on a short timeline. We’ll see what happens from there.

Posted in La Migra, Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Abortion and IVF roundup

Texas IVF patients are dealing with a lot of uncertainty right now.

Heather Burzlaff has four embryos in a freezer in Dallas and she doesn’t know what to do with them.

After seven years of medications, egg retrievals and waiting, the embryos are all the 38-year-old Flower Mound resident has left from the grueling in-vitro fertilization process, which resulted in no children. The embryos have genetic abnormalities that make it virtually impossible for them to result in a viable pregnancy. It’s a heartbreaking reality many IVF patients face in the pursuit of starting a family.

States away, the Alabama Supreme Court decided frozen embryos created through IVF — each only a cluster of cells made from a fertilized egg stored outside the uterus — are legally children and people can be held liable for their destruction. Already, Alabama clinics have halted IVF treatments while they determine whether they’re at legal risk.

Texas has issued no such ruling. But IVF patients like Burzlaff are scrambling to make a plan for their embryos in case that changes. Does she move her embryos to another state? Does she budget to pay for their storage for the rest of her life? Does she implant them at a point in her menstrual cycle when she’s least likely to get pregnant?

Burzlaff and her husband are in the middle of the adoption process through the foster care system. The Alabama decision, she said, adds another layer of complications to an already draining situation.

“The paperwork alone is overwhelming. Now you throw this into the mix and I just kind of want to shut down and stop,” Burzlaff said. “I don’t even want to build my family anymore. It’s too much.”

Texans raised concern over the future of IVF after the fall of Roe vs. Wade in 2022, but doctors and politicians alike assured them the procedure would not be a target of abortion restrictions. The move by Alabama’s top court has undone any sense of security IVF patients had.

[…]

Whether Texas will follow Alabama’s suit is yet to be seen. When asked during an interview on CNN whether IVF patients in the state should be worried, Gov. Greg Abbott said he supports IVF but that the question was complex.

Southern Methodist University professor and health law expert Seema Mohapatra said, at least in her reading of current Texas law, embryos have to be implanted in a pregnant person in order to be considered a child. That doesn’t mean legislators won’t try to change the definition of a child.

“Do I think there might be attempts? Yes. Do I think that they’re going to be successful? I would be surprised,” Mohapatra said. “But there’s a lot of things that have happened in Texas that I would not have thought would have happened two years ago related to abortion restrictions.”

Can’t imagine where the anxiety is coming from. I wouldn’t keep my frozen embryos here if I had the means to move them elsewhere. I don’t know what will happen in the next legislative session relating to IVF, though I do know that a “wrongful death” lawsuit that could easily end up threatening IVF directly is working its way through the legal system right now. I do know there will be a vocal constituency in favor of being consistent with their “life begins at conception” zealotry and applying it to IVF.

There will also be at least one bill to protect IVF.

A Texas lawmaker who is pursuing fertility treatments is calling on Gov. Greg Abbott to protect access to in vitro fertilization after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos are children.

Rep. Mihaela Plesa (D-Plano) said she became concerned about the status of IVF in Texas after the Alabama Supreme Court’s ruling. She’s urging Texans to sign her petition to encourage lawmakers to protect and improve access to fertility treatments.

Plesa said access to IVF is a reproductive right — and one that is very important to her personally as she tries to start family.

“My mother is my hero,” Plesa said. “She’s the strongest woman I know, and I just hope to be able to be… a strong mother like her one day.”

The Alabama Supreme Court ruled last week that frozen embryos have the same rights as children under state law. The ruling was prompted by a wrongful death suit where three Alabama couples undergoing fertility treatment sued after their frozen embryos were destroyed.

“We really have to be careful when the judiciary essentially is now coming into your doctor’s office, because these are not medical professionals,” she said.

[…]

The largest hospital in Alabama stopped providing IVF treatment as a result of the ruling. Plesa said she wants to prevent something like that happening in Texas.

“That’s going to make this process more inaccessible, more expensive,” she said.

Plesa said she plans to file bills during the next legislative session to keep IVF legal in Texas.

Someone ask Greg Abbott if he’d support such a bill. You won’t get a straight answer, but ask anyway.

The fight over IVF is even bigger than just who gets to have a baby.

When Republican Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida announced on NBC’s Meet the Press last Sunday that he fully supports IVF because it is necessary to “create great families, which is what our country desperately needs,” and that IVF “helps them breed great families,” he gave away this darker game. This isn’t just about forcing pregnant people to carry babies; it’s also about the “domestic supply of infants” problem that the 14th Amendment was expressly crafted to redress: a sordid history of power and money and ownership of children, still baked so deeply into adoption and foster care that you almost don’t notice when the state coolly lays claim to the entire contents of a “cryogenic nursery.”

Nothing about this should shock you, at least not if you’ve been reading Dorothy Roberts. This is the two-step wherein the state forces women to have babies they cannot raise, does nothing to help support them, then swoops in to seize the babies when their parents are seen as endangering them—a phenomenon that of course predominantly hurts poor women and women of color. The state also ensures that adoptions flow in the direction of more “worthy” parents, which means heterosexual and Christian parents, a regime also built into the legal framework. The list of people who cannot assert autonomy and control over their potential children has, in the course of a few weeks, now expanded from LGBTQ+ parents, single parents, poor parents, and parents of color to anyone who has started the process of IVF in Alabama.

When Republicans insist that life begins at conception, and also that seven cell clusters constitute “life,” what they are saying—what they were always saying—is that we as a society need babies so badly that somebody should always be entitled to take control and custody over somebody else’s baby, and indeed of every potential baby. Because, at the end of the day, your babies don’t belong to you; they belong, variously, to God, to the GOP, to the state, and to those who want to raise them in your stead. That isn’t just about controlling women, then, or about fertility and the power to make economic and health decisions about one’s own life. This is about the government endlessly making determinations about who is fit to take your children away from you and raise them as their own. This is the Handmaid’s Tale version of religion, as Dorothy Roberts has long warned, and it’s embodied deeply in U.S. history and in long-standing policies. It is why women can be left to die of sepsis outside the ER, then be blamed by the government for having made bad choices. Their babies never really belonged to them in the first instance. And what Alabama established two weeks ago is that doctors and patients will have to make choices in the IVF context that privilege potential lives over their own family autonomy.

You may think all of this sounds very alarmist. I’ll remind you that many of the alarms that folks in the reproductive rights space have been ringing, pre- and post-Dobbs, have been coming true. I’ll also note that Republicans had the chance to give real protection to IVF this past week, in which they literally had to do nothing, and they failed to do so. When they show you who they are, etc etc etc.

To be fair, the Alabama Legislature is now trying to clean up the mess that their Supreme Court created. But they haven’t addressed the “embryos are actually children” issue in their state constitution, which is what that court based its decision on, and as such I think this will rear itself again.

Remember also that what happens in one wingnut state often gets copied elsewhere.

What could other states do?

There are a host of existing mechanisms that could be used to curb access to IVF.

Similar lawsuits to Alabama’s wrongful death case could be filed in other states. Louisiana already has a law that treats viable embryos as “judicial persons,” effectively meaning that embryos cannot be destroyed, though they can be transferred out of state. That law hasn’t stopped health care providers in the state from offering IVF, though it has made the process more cumbersome, physicians in the state said. They now have to send all excess embryos, including ones that will likely never be used for pregnancy, to out-of-state storage facilities.

Some legal scholars suggested that the Louisiana law could be leveraged in an argument for broader fetal personhood — the idea that a fetus, or even an embryo should be given the same legal rights as a person — and in turn reinterpreted to limit access to IVF. But so far, there are no pending cases in the state.

Laws granting legal protection to embryos — particularly so-called “fetal personhood” laws, which are on the books in 11 other states — could be interpreted to outlaw the discarding of embryos, making IVF, if not directly illegal, effectively impossible to provide. But those laws vary in their expansiveness, noted Mary Ziegler, a law professor at the University of California, Davis who studies the anti-abortion and fetal personhood movements.

Georgia’s fetal personhood law, for instance, only applies to embryos in the uterus and at six weeks of pregnancy and later, meaning it is unlikely to affect IVF. But an Arizona law, currently on hold while being litigated in federal court, applies personhood more broadly, including embryos. If upheld, multiple legal experts said, that is a law with the potential to undercut access to IVF.

More important, Ziegler said, is the makeup of individual courts and their willingness to embrace the same legal reasoning as Alabama’s. She pointed in particular to Florida and South Carolina, where members of the respective supreme courts have expressed interest in fetal personhood.

“You need a particular kind of group of people to make a ruling like this,” Ziegler said. “Definitely not just justices who are conservative but who are also interested in taking on this question at a time when doing so will be controversial and divisive.”

In other words, how crazy is your state’s judiciary? I actually think the Texas Supreme Court, as currently constituted, would be reluctant to go full Alabama here. That’s a good thing, because a case where that could happen is being litigated as we speak, and it will arrive at their doorstep one of these days. But it’s also of very limited comfort, because we have a Governor and a Legislature who can’t be trusted, and an Attorney General who likes seeking revenge on judges who dare to rule against him. If we don’t succeed at making the judiciary we have now better, it will absolutely get worse.

And finally, bringing things back to abortion for a minute.

Telehealth abortions continue to grow in popularity, even in states where anti-abortion activists try to ban them, according to new data published today.

Abortions obtained through virtual providers accounted for 15 to 16 percent of all abortions conducted between July and September of last year—amounting to about 14,000 abortions each month—up from 11 percent of abortions, or about 8,500, in December of 2022, according to the report, prepared by researchers from Ohio State University, the University of California, San Francisco, and the Society of Family Planning. The increase is partly thanks to the rise of shield laws, which protect providers who virtually prescribe and mail abortion pills to people in states with abortion bans, according to one of the report’s co-authors, Ushma Upadhyay, a researcher at the University of California, San Francisco.

Five states—Massachusetts, Colorado, Washington, New York, and Vermont—passed laws last year that protect telehealth providers who help people elsewhere in the country get abortions, according to Upadhyay. California enacted its shield law last month. As the New York Times reported last week, while these laws have not yet faced legal challenges, many expect them to. But in the meantime, they’re serving as the key to abortion access for people across the country: The Times reports that Aid Access, one of three main organizations providing telehealth abortions, serves about 7,000 patients a month, about 90 percent of whom are in states with abortion bans or severe restrictions. Advocates say telehealth abortion can also be particularly significant for low-income people and those in rural areas who may otherwise have difficulty accessing abortion clinics.

You can be sure that some of the activity to challenge those shield laws will come from Texas. We can do something about that this November, and again in 2026. It would be nice if we did.

Posted in The great state of Texas | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

One more look at primary turnout

Here’s the Derek Ryan report on early voting in the primaries, which sent me off into a rabbit hole yesterday.

Early voting is over. (Thank goodness! Early voting is always the busiest point of the entire two-year election cycle for me.)

The final early voting numbers are in…actually, that’s not entirely accurate…there are likely still some counties who have not posted their final early voting rosters. But from what has been posted, the numbers are as follows:

Democratic Primary: 596,933 votes cast and 3.3% statewide turnout.
Republican Primary: 1,222,390 votes cast and 6.8% statewide turnout.

That gives the Republicans a 625,000 vote advantage over the Democrats.

Approximately 148,000 more votes were cast early in the Republican Primary this year compared to the 2020 Republican Primary. On the Democratic side, turnout was about 60% of the total cast in 2020 (but again, 2020 had a competitive presidential primary). It’s also worth noting that turnout in the Democratic Primary was lower than it was in 2022 at this point (596,933 this year compared to 620,107 in 2022).

More votes were cast in the Republican Primary than in the Democratic Primary in three of the five largest counties: Harris, Tarrant, and Bexar. Harris and Bexar are blue counties and Tarrant County is likely a slightly red county, though it did vote for Joe Biden in 2020. In the other two large counties, Dallas and Travis, turnout was higher in the Democratic Primary.

There’s more, so click over and read the rest. The main thing that this got me thinking about is something I’ve touched on here already, which is how much of the primary vote is cast early. I reviewed some numbers in Harris County before, but I wondered if looking at other counties might tell me something. So I went and looked at a bunch of county election sites, and this is what I can tell you.


Year       County     EV%
=========================
2012   Dallas Dem  45.71%
2016   Dallas Dem  36.09%
2020   Dallas Dem  40.59%

2012   Dallas GOP  41.82%
2016   Dallas GOP  37.62%
2020   Dallas GOP  48.61%

2012    Bexar Dem  56.19%
2016    Bexar Dem  47.90%
2020    Bexar Dem  53.78%

2012    Bexar GOP  56.20%
2016    Bexar GOP  46.62%
2020    Bexar GOP  58.64%

2012   Travis Dem  42.66%
2016   Travis Dem  42.33%
2020   Travis Dem  49.48%

2012   Travis GOP  42.33%
2016   Travis GOP  37.56%
2020   Travis GOP  54.66%

2012  El Paso Dem  52.90%
2016  El Paso Dem  32.80%
2020  El Paso Dem  50.16%

2012  El Paso GOP  50.07%
2016  El Paso GOP  28.95%
2020  El Paso GOP  50.11%


2012  Tarrant Dem  46.78%
2016  Tarrant Dem  42.98%
2020  Tarrant Dem  46.16%

2012  Tarrant GOP  45.65%
2016  Tarrant GOP  44.92%
2020  Tarrant GOP  55.56%

2012   Collin Dem  53.57%
2016   Collin Dem  44.23%
2020   Collin Dem  51.06%

2012   Collin GOP  54.61%
2016   Collin GOP  51.31%
2020   Collin GOP  62.31%

2012   Denton Dem  43.79%
2016   Denton Dem  41.95%
2020   Denton Dem  51.30%

2012   Denton GOP  50.32%
2016   Denton GOP  48.81%
2020   Denton GOP  62.42%

2012   Montgy Dem  39.38%
2016   Montgy Dem  36.56%
2020   Montgy Dem  43.21%

2012   Montgy GOP  49.99%
2016   Montgy GOP  46.19%
2020   Montgy GOP  56.50%


2012  Ft Bend Dem  42.61%
2016  Ft Bend Dem  37.45%
2020  Ft Bend Dem  49.80%

2012  Ft Bend GOP  56.35%
2016  Ft Bend GOP  42.75%
2020  Ft Bend GOP  66.21%

I looked at the big Democratic counties, then some Republican counties, and I wanted to check the two big suburban counties that flipped from red to blue during this time, but the Williamson County elections archives were a mess and I abandoned it. I’m throwing a lot of numbers at you and there’s a good amount of chaos in there, but the one thing that stood out to me is that in every county I checked except El Paso, Republicans were more likely to vote early in 2020 than Democrats were. Before 2020 it could go either way, and the level of early voting could fluctuate quite a bit – that was one of many things I didn’t expect – but there was definitely a pattern in 2020, and it was that Republicans voted early more than Democrats did.

Does that mean anything for this year? I have no idea. If we do see something similar to 2020, then Dems are likely to make up some ground, at least as a share of the total vote even if the absolute gap doesn’t shrink by much. If we don’t, then this was a lot of effort to no clear end. Which, to be fair, is a good summary of what blogging is in general.

To put it in mainstream media terms, here are the three main takeaways: One, every election is different. Two, primaries are weird. And three, be careful about drawing conclusions about final turnout from early turnout data. I have recent experience in that. (Note: Ryan himself doesn’t make any claims about final turnout, he just presents the existing numbers. I’m trying to be careful myself.)

One last tidbit: Harris County has provided 17.13% of the statewide Democratic early vote total, and 8.91% of the statewide Republican early vote total. I’ll report back on what those final numbers are when we have them.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Getting revenge is the best revenge

I have one thing to say to these Republicans.

Rep. Glenn Rogers

State Rep. Glenn Rogers is mad as hell, and he’s not being shy about it.

“Kiss my ass!” he recently told a statewide Republican official who had endorsed his primary opponent.

“Beware of this belligerent run on power,” he warned his followers on social media.

The Graford Republican is quoting Winston Churchill, calling out “grandiose lies” by his well-funded primary opponent, Mike Olcott, and challenging Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller to a duel in a text message as he seeks to hang onto his House seat.

[…]

He’s among a group of Republicans facing heat from big names in their party in a primary that has pitted former allies against each other, prompted big spending and left a pile of hurt feelings in its wake. Incumbents like Rogers have become targets over two key votes last year: on whether to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton and whether to allow school vouchers. Many feel those attacks ignore conservative records built up over years.

Rogers is facing conservative backlash on both. Since he was first elected in 2020, he has voted against the creation of a private school voucher program, a priority issue for GOP Gov. Greg Abbott. The proposal would have diverted state funds to private or church schools for parents who want to exit the public school system and want help paying for part of tuition. The resistance of 21 Republicans, most of them rural, led to the repeated failure of the proposal last year.

Advocates have said the public schools in Rogers’ House District 60, a mostly rural area west of Fort Worth covering Palo PInto, Stephens and Parker counties, would lose more than $3 million if vouchers were to pass.

And like the majority of his fellow House Republicans, Rogers supported the impeachment of Paxton on charges of bribery and unfitness for office. In the months since he was acquitted by the Senate, Paxton has campaigned hard against the GOP lawmakers who accused him of corruption.

Now Rogers has found himself in the crosshairs of just about any Republican with any official power in Texas — except for House Speaker Dade Phelan, who is facing his own well-funded GOP primary opponent in Beaumont. In addition to Abbott, Paxton and Miller, Olcott has the support of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Texas GOP Chair Matt Rinaldi. On Tuesday, he received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.

That has been frustrating for Rogers, who called the governor’s recent decision to endorse his pro-voucher opponent “a single-issue endorsement” in an interview with a local CBS station. The endorsement ignored his efforts to fight for his district and ignored his voting record, he said.

“It doesn’t seem to matter about the integrity of the candidate, what their legislative productivity is,” he said. “It’s simply, ‘Do you support vouchers and I’ll endorse you.’ I think that’s unprecedented. I’ve been a very strong supporter of his, and we differ on this one issue, and he’s chosen to endorse my opponent.”

Other Abbott and Paxton targets are similarly upset.

Rep. Ernest Bailes, R-Shepherd, lamented the governor’s “vindictive nature” against Republicans he said were simply trying to represent their constituents’ best interests.“Governor Abbott is expending an astronomical amount of resources this campaign cycle, in order to unseat members who serve their districts, instead of his will,” Bailes wrote in a Facebook post Monday. “He made one trip to my district last week and [is] coming back again later this month, in order to do his absolute best to make sure that our next representative is someone who has sworn fielty to his agenda, rather than that of representing this district.”

[…]

In some cases, Abbott’s and Paxton’s focus on single issues has pitted them against each other in primaries.

Rep. Travis Clardy, R-Nacogdoches, opposed vouchers, but also opposed impeachment, earning him the backing of Paxton. That forced Paxton to defend himself from backlash from many conservative voucher supporters on X.

“I’m not ashamed at all. Travis Clardy took a lot of bullets to stand up for me,” Paxton wrote. “However, you feel about him, he stood with me and the voters of Texas, and I appreciate that.”

Meanwhile, Clardy had harsh words for Abbott, who endorsed him in past races, but has now come out strongly against him for his anti-voucher vote.

“Threatening and bullying is not effective leadership,” Clardy told the Texas Monthly last year. “I think you can go over and review the entire lexicon of Dale Carnegie and Zig Ziglar and not find bullying and threatening as a desired tactic. But here we are. And I don’t get it.”

To Reps. Rogers and Bailes and Clardy and Stan Lambert and anyone else who opposed vouchers and/or supported impeachment and now are being attacked and vilified by Abbott and Paxton and their billionaire theocrat enablers, there’s only one thing you can do whether you survive this primary or not. You must do everything in your power to oppose Abbott and Paxton and whoever else is on that same train with them in 2026. Easy enough to do in the next primary, but you have to do it in the general as well, because we know they’ll survive their primaries. Do that however you want – voting third party, writing someone in, and skipping those races are all options if supporting the Democrat is a bridge too far – just be loud and proud about it and tell everyone who supported you to do the same. These guys are never going to stop coming after you as long as they’re in power. The one way to fix it is to get them out of power.

Up to you. Stand up for yourself, or take all this abuse and reward the abusers by trotting back to them and forgetting it ever happened. Which one will make it easier for you to look in the mirror going forward?

One more thing:

Rogers also has the endorsement of the Associated Republicans of Texas, a 50-year-old political group that has endorsed most of the targeted Republicans in the House primaries and had upwards of $3 million cash on hand last month.

Jamie McWright, president of the organization, said the group’s focus is to elect pro-business Republicans that represent their districts and can win in a general election against a Democrat.

“There is no litmus test, there is no scorecard, there is no conservative ranking for us,” McWright said. “We really do look for business-minded conservatives who want to come to Austin and get things done. We believe in a big-tent Republican party, and winning where we can with Republicans.”

And while a healthy primary that forces discussion on the issues is nothing new in Texas politics, McWright said, it’s “extremely disheartening” that the especially divisive tenor of this cycle threatens to confuse and deter the participation of “thoughtful Republicans” in the entire process.

“I think you’ve got a lot of really good Republican voters who may end up staying home because they’re so confused,” she said. “And I think anytime we discourage people from voting, we’re hurting our own democracy. And that’s just a real shame.”

The same advice applies to groups like the Associated Republicans of Texas, except I would insist that they do support the Democratic opponents of Abbott and Paxton in 2026. I know, Democrats can’t win statewide in Texas, blah blah blah. You know what might help? Having a couple hundred thousand Republicans vote Democratic in those races. I mean, assuming that groups like ART have that kind of actual clout. If they’re nothing but a clearinghouse for a few big-money donors, then yeah, just whine impotently and keep on keeping on. But if you do have a decent number of likeminded supporters, and you want to effect change, well, that’s how you do like. Like I said, up to you and the person looking back at you in that mirror.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments