Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Gilbert Pena

Posted on January 4, 2015 by Charles Kuffner

Let the man have his victory lap, but let’s not read more into his victory than there is. By the time Harris County’s conservative leaders fished for their car keys at their Election Night watch party, there were few candidates … Continue reading →

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Abbott and the Latino vote

Posted on December 8, 2014 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib drops a number on us. Along with his 20-point margin of victory, Gov.-elect Greg Abbott accomplished something on Election Day that many naysayers doubted the Republican could: He took 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. For Texas conservatives, … Continue reading →

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Kris Banks: Comparing turnout, or where the vote was lost

Posted on December 1, 2014 by Charles Kuffner

(Note: This is the first of two guest posts submitted by Kris Banks, past President of the Houston GLBT Political Caucus.) Democrats lost big last month. We lost at every level, from statewide all the way down to the countywide … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Republican primary election

Posted on April 2, 2014 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve done the Democrats, so now let’s take a look at the Republicans. In this case, I did have a few specific questions in mind, so my approach here will be a little different. First, we all know that Steve … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Democratic primary elections

Posted on March 31, 2014 by Charles Kuffner

I finally got around to asking for the canvass reports for the primaries in Harris County. I didn’t have any specific agenda in looking at the data from each, I just wanted to see what I could learn. Let’s start … Continue reading →

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Runoff precinct analysis: At Large races

Posted on January 10, 2014 by Charles Kuffner

I finally got a draft canvass report from the Harris County Clerk for the December runoff elections. Let’s take a look at the two At Large runoffs and see what we can learn about them. Here’s At Large #2: Dist … Continue reading →

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How to assess the odds in HD134

Posted on December 1, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Texpatriate informs us that two-term Rep. Sarah Davis will be getting a primary challenger in HD134 – Bonnie Parker, who lost to Davis in the 2010 primary, and who will unsurprisingly be attacking Davis from the right. There are three … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Two quick takes

Posted on November 22, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

I had wondered if partisan affiliation might be a factor in the HISD 7 race between Republican incumbent Harvin Moore and Democratic challenger Anne Sung. Like Houston races, HISD Trustee races are officially non-partisan, but also like Houston races, people … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: At Large 1, 4, and 5

Posted on November 20, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Last week, we looked at the competitive At Large Council races. Now let’s look at the three At Large races that weren’t competitive. First up is At Large #1, where CM Stephen Costello won a third term. Dist Costello Griffin … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: City Controller

Posted on November 19, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s move on to the Controller’s race, where incumbent Ronald Green held on to win a third term against challenger Bill Frazer. Dist Frazer Green Frazer% Green% ===================================== A 6,609 4,102 61.70% 38.30% B 1,637 10,035 14.03% 85.97% C 14,185 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: At Large 2 and 3

Posted on November 14, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Lots of action, and lots of candidates in the At Large races this year. Let’s look at the two races that are going to the runoffs, At Large #2 and 3. First is AL2, in which first term CM Andrew … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The Dome and the jail

Posted on November 12, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Now that precinct data is out, the Chron has an updated take on what sunk the Astrodome referendum. Overall, 53.4 percent of Harris County voters rejected the bond issue that would have renovated the long-vacant Dome into a convention and … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Mayoral race

Posted on November 11, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Precinct data arrived late on Friday, so you know what that means. I’ll be taking a look at all of the races this week. Let’s start with the main event, the Mayor’s race. Dist Drab Dick Cook Keryl Hall Parker … Continue reading →

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The Mayor’s race in three numbers

Posted on September 10, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

1. Turnout In the 2009 runoff, there were 155,670 votes cast for Mayor. Annise Parker got 82,175 and Gene Locke got 73,495. In the 2011 general election, there were 118,414 votes cast for Mayor. Annise Parker got 60,135 and the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Congressional overs and unders

Posted on March 4, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

To wrap up my look at 2012 versus 2008 results for all the new districts, here’s how the 36 Congressional districts compared. Dist McCain Pct Obama08 Pct Romney Pct Obama12 Pct RIdx DIdx ============================================================================== 01 178,520 68.85% 78,918 30.44% 181,833 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008, Senate and SBOE edition

Posted on February 25, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

To follow up on my previous examination of how the 2012 election returns looked in State House districts compared to the 2008 returns, I now have the data to look at other types of districts as well. You can find … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008

Posted on February 12, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Though the data isn’t yet posted on individual members’ webpages, I have gotten a copy of the 2012 election results by State Rep district, for which there was much rejoicing. The first question of interest is how much the 2008 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Third parties revisited

Posted on January 3, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Politico has a question. Is Austin’s Travis County the nation’s Libertarian Party stronghold? The co-founders of a Libertarian political action committee based there make that case, arguing that the Texas locale is the “most Libertarian large county in America.” Wes … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: A closer look at the Latino districts

Posted on December 5, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a more in-depth look at the Latino districts in Harris County. I’m particularly interested in the question of how President Obama did in comparison to the other Dems on the ballot, since as we know he lagged behind them … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The range of possibility

Posted on November 29, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a look at selected districts in Harris County that shows the range of votes and vote percentages achieved by Democratic candidates. I’ve thrown in the Obama and Sam Houston results from 2008 for each to provide a comparison between … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: City propositions

Posted on November 28, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

And we come to the city of Houston bond referenda, of which there were five on the ballot. Here’s the usual breakdown of them: Dist A Yes A No B Yes B No C Yes C No D Yes D … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: HISD and HCC

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

I was reasonably confident that the HISD bond referendum would be successful, mostly because there wasn’t any real opposition from officials or constituencies that would normally be expected to support it. It had a much smoother path than the 2007 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Metro

Posted on November 26, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

The first rule of precinct analysis, at least as I do it, is that you really can’t learn much by doing it on lopsided elections. The Metro referendum, which passed with 78% of the vote, is Exhibit A of this … Continue reading →

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Precinct data: County Commissioner precincts

Posted on November 20, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

I wish they called County Commissioner precincts by some other name, because it’s confusing to refer to them as such when one is discussing canvass data, which is data from the thousand-plus voting precincts in Harris County. But that’s the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008. Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

Posted on November 15, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The two races we’re all glad to see the end of

Posted on June 20, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

For my last look at precinct data from the Harris County Democratic primary of 2012, let’s see what happened in the two most contentious races on the ballot: Elaine Palmer versus Steven Kirkland, and Keryl Douglass versus Lane Lewis. First … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: That mysterious Democratic DA primary

Posted on June 19, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

We return to Democratic primary results and to the Harris County canvass as we take a look at the race everyone is trying to understand, the Democratic DA primary. Here’s what the numbers look like: Dist Oliver Fertitta Oliver % … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: GOP President and Senate in Harris County

Posted on June 18, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Though I didn’t have one originally, I now have a canvass of the GOP primary in Harris County from this year. Since it’s impossible for me to have data and not do something with it, I’ve taken a look at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Democratic Senate primary

Posted on June 13, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

After the May 29 primary, runnerup Senate candidate Grady Yarbrough said he did as well as he had because he “went directly” to counties where there is “a heavy Hispanic and African American population”. I don’t remember him ever being … Continue reading →

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Runoff precinct analysis, At Large #2

Posted on December 19, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

One of Santa’s election elves came by on Friday with a delivery of Harris County precinct data for the 2011 runoff elections. You can guess how I spent some of my weekend. Before I launch into the numbers, here are … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large #5

Posted on November 18, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

Last but certainly not least, the race everyone is wondering about, At Large #5: Dist Robinson Jones Christie Ryan ======================================= A 17.10% 23.61% 48.91% 10.38% B 18.80% 73.00% 5.09% 3.11% C 25.07% 30.02% 35.57% 9.35% D 14.96% 73.56% 7.86% 3.62% … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large #2

Posted on November 17, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

What can you say about a ten-candidate pileup? Let’s start by seeing what the district numbers look like: Dist Thibaut Perez Burks Goss Fraga Dick Pool Griff Robinson Shorter ==================================================================================== A 15.69% 17.99% 13.94% 3.03% 6.93% 11.67% 6.41% 11.35% 9.75% … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2011 At Large races, part 1

Posted on November 16, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a look at the election returns in each Council district for the three “normal” At Large races, in At Large #1, #3, and #4. First up is #1, where first term incumbent CM Stephen Costello won a narrow majority … Continue reading →

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