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May 11th, 2016:

The Donald is spurring people to register to vote

Just another data point for your consideration.

Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border.

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, projects 13.1 million Hispanics will vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008.

Many of those new Hispanic voters are also expected to vote against Trump if he is the Republican nominee, something that appears much more likely after the front-runner’s sweeping primary victories Tuesday in five East Coast states.

[…]

Many of the newly registered Hispanic voters are in California and Texas, relatively safe states for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

In fact, because so many Hispanic voters live in those states, the effect of the rising registration numbers will be somewhat undercut, according to Vargas.

Still, rising registration rates among Hispanics in Colorado, Florida and Nevada could make it easier for the Democratic candidate to retain those swing states. Even Arizona could be in play, say some poll watchers.

Registration is a game-changer with Hispanic voters.

Only about 48 percent of eligible Hispanics vote, but nearly 80 percent of registered Hispanics go to the ballot box.

Emphasis mine. The story is primarily about swing states, because this sort of story always is, but as you know it’s the effect on Texas that interests me. Here’s a subsequent Chron story that adds a local angle.

Across the nation, non-profits say they are registering Hispanics and helping residents become citizens at faster rates than ever before, many of them mobilized by a desire to vote against the billionaire developer.

“That’s the No. 1 name that comes up all the time,” said Claudia Ortega-Hogue, vice president of the Houston-area League of Women Voters. “There is fear, and there is anger.”

Since last summer, when Trump first referred to Mexicans as criminals, Ortega-Hogue said her organization began registering more than 80 percent of new citizens at naturalization ceremonies compared to the 60 percent that is average. Many have long held green cards but told volunteers they naturalized now to vote against Trump. The process, from turning in an application to the final swearing-in ceremony, takes about six months, making May crunch time for those seeking to participate in November.

“The comments that Trump has made has really increased the numbers of people wanting to be involved,” Ortega-Hogue said.

Average monthly citizenship applications across the country spiked nearly 15 percent to about 64,800 between August and January, the most recent government data available, compared to the same period the year before. In Texas, some 66,000 immigrants became citizens in 2015, about a quarter more than in the previous year.

[…]

In the past, volunteers had to approach people and “almost twist their arms” for them to sign up to vote, said Carlos Duarte, who oversees Texas for Mi Familia Vota, a national group focused on boosting Latino voter registration.

“What is different now is that people approach us,” Duarte said. “They would always make these comments, and it was very heavily a reaction against Donald Trump.”

[…]

A sizeable Hispanic push could impact down-ballot elections, particularly in Harris County, which has the country’s largest Latino population after Los Angeles, more than 1.9 million.

The county went to President Barack Obama in 2012 by only some 970 votes, and for the first time in over three decades now leans majority-Democratic, according to a survey last month by Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research.

Tellingly, most of that pickup for Democrats is among Latino respondents who are eligible but not registered to vote, said the report’s author, Stephen Klineberg.

Mobilizing these and other Hispanics could imperil two dozen Republican judges in the county and more than 50 around the state, as well as the Harris County District Attorney and sheriff, said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University.

“With Trump’s track record thus far of making statements portraying immigrants as racists and murderers and building a wall, it’s a ready-made campaign commercial against him for Univision,” Jones said. “Trump on the ballot could really be serious trouble for Harris County Republicans.”

It could also hurt a few Republican legislators in strong Hispanic districts in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, including Gilbert Peña in Pasadena. And it might add a Democratic congressional seat in the 23rd district, which is currently represented by Republican Will Hurd and stretches from San Antonio to the Mexican border.

See here for more on the Houston Area Survey. I’ve written about this before, so add this to the collection. I will be very interested to see what voter registration numbers look like when they come out. Anything that Democrats can do to abet those efforts will be well worth it.

Dan Patrick is obsessed with children’s bathrooms

This guy, I swear.

Transgender advocates derided Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Wednesday for what they described as his “fake outrage” over the Fort Worth school district’s new transgender bathroom guidelines, calling the Republican a shameless bully.

“A bully like Dan Patrick can’t go unchallenged. He is wrong,” said Joel Burns, an openly gay former Fort Worth councilman. “He’s here to do harm for his own political gain.”

Burns, also an anti-bullying advocate, spoke during a news conference ahead of one Patrick scheduled in advance of a Forth Worth school board meeting, where the new guidelines are not on the agenda but are expected to come up during public comment.

“There is no news here,” said Steve Rudner, chairman of Equality Texas, who joined Burns at the news conference. “The only news here is that the lieutenant governor has decided to pick on an already bullied group of kids. It’s shameful and it’s despicable.”

The Fort Worth Independent School District superintendent said earlier Tuesday he will not heed Patrick’s request for his resignation over the district’s bathroom guidelines for transgender students.

Patrick on Monday called for Superintendent Kent Scribner to resign over a policy the superintendent announced last month that directs district employees to “acknowledge the gender identity that each student consistently and uniformly asserts,” allowing them to use the bathroom that aligns with their gender identity.

“I’m proud of these guidelines,’’ Scribner told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram editorial board Tuesday. “I think they provide educators with the ability to make all students more comfortable and confident in a learning environment.”

Patrick said the policy puts students in danger and Scribner should not have acted without “any discussion with parents, board members, principals, and other community leaders.”

“Campus safety should be of paramount concern for anyone in his position,” Patrick said in a statement Monday. “Every parent, especially those of young girls, should be outraged.”

Well, speaking as father of young girls, I’d say they have far more to fear from the Baylor football team than from any trans women or girls who might be sharing the ladies’ room with them. I can’t decide if Patrick is too willfully ignorant of the facts to understand that what he claims to fear is just not possible, or if he’s just cynically exploiting that fear in everyone else who’s ignorant. What I do know is that it’s ultimately the business community, against whose interests Patrick continues to work, that will have to stop him. I wish I could say I were optimistic about this, but alas, they have shown no capability to grasp this as yet. In the meantime, compare and contrast Dan Patrick with US Attorney General Loretta Lynch. To whom will history be kind, and who will be seen as this generation’s Bull Connor? Texas Monthly and the Austin Chronicle have more.

Yeah, we’re still talking about the Austin rideshare referendum

The tech community was as divided as everyone else.

Uber

Joshua Baer, founder of Capital Factory, the downtown technology incubator, has been a critic of the proposed regulations. He said he believes the vote sent signals that Austin is hostile to startups.

“Losing Uber and Lyft is a major setback to our reputation as an innovative city and technology hub that is already impacting decisions made by venture capitalists and Fortune 500 executives,” Baer said Monday. “It’s critical that the tech community and City Council come together… before our reputation is damaged further.”

But others scoffed at the notion that the Prop 1 vote could do any long-term damage to Austin’s entrepreneurial reputation. Austin economist Brian Kelsey said the vote is unlikely to have negative ripple effects on startups.

“Prop. 1 may be a setback in how the outside world views our seriousness in local policy making, but branding Austin as ‘anti-innovation” is ludicrous,’ ” Kelsey said. ” If the existence of two ride-sharing companies locally has an impact on your business model, then I’d say Prop. 1 should probably be the least of your concerns.”

[…]

Initially, many tech workers and entrepreneurs said they thought the vote would get industry support because of general opposition to more regulation of emerging technology business models.

But they now say Uber and Lyft’s aggressive marketing tactics derailed the discussion.

“I think it backfired in the tech community,” said Austin entrepreneur Richard Bagdonas, who supported the proposition. “I have talked to many people who said ‘I’m pro-Uber and pro-Lyft, but the number of flyers, calls and texts I received pushed me over the edge.’ ”

Lyft

[…]

Turnout for Prop 1 was dominated by “traditional” voters who reliably show up to vote in state and local elections, Littlefield said. Early voting data showed that 70 percent of the Prop 1 voters were these traditional voters, [Baer] said.

“I’ve seen it time and time again,” he said. “There are people who will vote in May elections and there are people that no matter how vitally important the results of the May election are to their own personal interests, they simply do not vote.”

Political experts said Uber and Lyft underestimated whether support for their service translated into votes.

Take David Goss. He’s a 40-year-old systems engineer for EMC Corp. in Austin. He regularly uses Uber when he’s going downtown for drinks and needs a sober ride home. On paper, Goss sounds like he would be for Prop 1.

But Goss said he voted against the measure. “I do love Uber, I use it all the time,” Goss said. But he said he wasn’t in favor with just letting Uber and Lyft write their own regulations.

“I definitely felt that there was some middle ground, we needed to find a way to ensure the rides were safe and make sure the employees were treated fairly,” he said.

Austin marketing veteran and entrepreneur Josh Jones-Dilworth, who opposed the proposition, said he watched as the discussion — and tech workers’ opinions — morphed.

“It started as a safety issue, and then it became an innovation issue, and then evolved into a corporate bullying issue,” Jones-Dilworth said. “It’s a complex issue, and there was never a consensus. I know a lot of people who changed their mind. And I know a lot of people who stayed on the sidelines because they thought this was a no-win situation.”

David Broockman, a business professor at Stanford University and an Austin native, said startups like Uber and Lyft view themselves as the underdog taking on an established industry: taxis.

“In Silicon Valley there is a tendency to view startups as David against Goliath,” he said, but that doesn’t always translate outside the Bay area, he said, where they are viewed instead as the Goliaths.

Hard to be the David when you’re backed by a few billion dollars in market valuation. For all that people like Uber and Lyft’s service, this election has shown us that liking only goes so far. I’d like to think that they will consider whether they should maybe change their approach a bit, to be more conciliatory and open to compromise, but so far there’s no indication of that. Perhaps we’ll see that when the inevitable statewide regulation bill comes up in the Lege. For all the bluster from some Republicans following Saturday’s vote, the passage of such a bill is not a slam dunk. It’s still the case that collaboration gets you farther in the Capitol than a bludgeon.

In the meantime, more players are hitting the scene.

While Uber has grown into a global behemoth by deploying many thousands of independent contractors, many of those drivers aren’t happy. New ride-sharing startup Juno–which has so far only launched in stealth mode in New York City–will try to make those drivers into its secret weapon.

Talmon Marco, former cofounder and CEO of messaging app Viber (which sold to Rakuten for $900 million in 2014), confirmed to FORBES that he is behind Juno, and promised that the new service under development “will have multiple capabilities that will differentiate it from other such services.”

But likely its biggest differentiator will be driver relations. While Uber has demonstrated its willingness to anger drivers by slashing prices and commissions over the last few years, Juno plans to take only a 10% commission from drivers. And it claims to have “reserved” 50% of its founding shares for drivers.

“At the heart of Juno is a belief that it’s time for a ride sharing service that treated drivers right,” Marco tells FORBES. “It’s time for an ethical, socially responsible ride sharing service. And that’s what we are doing.”

Sounds promising. As I said yesterday, the best thing that could come out of the Austin referendum is for multiple new rideshare services to emerge and find purchase. I mean, if part of the problem with traditional cab companies was that they were shielded by regulations from facing a competitive market, then surely we don’t want Uber and Lyft to be the only game in town for rideshare, right? A competitive market implies the need for competitors, after all. There would be a certain justice in all this if Uber and Lyft’s self-imposed departure from Austin helps enable those competitors. Chris Tomlinson, who has a few choice words for how Uber and Lyft treat drivers, and Roy have more.

We’re still lousy at funding schools

In case you were wondering.

BagOfMoney

Texas still ranks in the bottom third of states in spending per pupil in the U.S., with essentially no change in either amount or standing, a new study shows.

The finding doesn’t help, and could undercut, the state’s position in a long-running school finance case.

Figures compiled by the National Education Association and released Friday show that Texas schools are spending an average $9,561 per student in the current school year. That is well under the national average of $12,251 and ranks Texas 38th among the 50 states and District of Columbia.

Of neighboring states, only Oklahoma spends less, said Clay Robison, spokesman for the Texas State Teachers Association, the state NEA affiliate.

Last year, Texas also was 38th in the comparisons, based on numbers furnished to the NEA by state education agencies. In the 2014-15 school year, Texas spent $9,559 per student in grades K-12, based on average daily attendance. The national average was $12,061.

In recent years, Texas has fallen about $1,000 per child further below the national average, said Noel Candelaria, president of the state NEA affiliate. This school year, Texas is $2,690 below the national average. Five years earlier, in 2010-11, it was $1,685 behind, he noted. Back then, Texas spent $9,462 per child. The 2010-11 academic year was the last one before the Legislature whacked $5.3 billion from public schools.

“At a time when the Texas Supreme Court is considering a lower court ruling that found the state’s school finance system unconstitutional, these figures tell a shameful story,” Candelaria said in a statement.

[…]

Combining budget writers’ decisions in the past two legislative sessions, the Legislature put an additional $6 billion into public schools, Solicitor General Scott Keller noted.

But former Chief Justice Wallace Jefferson, who appeared as a private lawyer for Dallas, Fort Worth and dozens of other districts suing the state, said lawmakers have put the districts in a straitjacket by raising expectations of student performance while lowering the state’s share of the total tab.

Meanwhile, the Legislature effectively has imposed an unconstitutional statewide property tax because “once again local districts are without meaningful discretion over their rates,” he said.

Even if one accepts Keller at his word, that barely takes Texas back to where it was before the 2011 cuts, and that’s without accounting for enrollment growth or stricter accountability standards. I don’t expect Texas to be at the top of a list like this, but we do have an awful lot of students who live in poverty, and an awful lot of students who come from homes where English is not the primary language spoken. We also don’t do much in terms of pre-kindergarten, meaning that not only do we have a lot of high-need students to educate, we let them fall farther behind by not preparing them for school ahead of time. Yet we demand more of our districts and our students. It makes no sense.

The argument stated by former Justice Jefferson is basically what the Supreme Court found in the last school finance lawsuit, in 2005. That led to the 50-cent cut in local property tax rates, which was supposed to be made up by the state in the form of the business margins tax and other sources. We all know how that has gone. Having the state pay a higher share of the public education budget is the right idea – local districts have been shouldering an ever-increasing about of the burden in recent years – but it needs to be done in a way that doesn’t allow the state to shirk its responsibilities. I hope that’s what this Court has in mind, and if so I wish them luck in writing an opinion that will get the Lege to do what it needs to do.