From the inbox:
Luke Warford
The race for Texas Railroad Commission is up for grabs this November, with voters looking for change and Democratic nominee Luke Warford in a statistical tie with incumbent Wayne Christian.
A new poll from Data for Progress shows Democratic challenger Luke Warford with just a 4-point deficit to Republican incumbent Wayne Christian:
Once positive and negative messaging are applied, that gap narrows to just 2 points.
Notably, after positive bios of both candidates, Warford has a significant favorability lead: +44 compared to just +3 for Christian.
The 4-point margin shows a considerable tightening in the race from the last public poll, conducted in March, which showed an 11-point gap. The most recent poll was conducted from August 17-22 of 676 likely Texas voters.
“The race for the Texas Railroad Commission is ridiculously winnable,” said Luke Warford, Democratic Nominee for Texas Railroad Commission. “Texans are rightfully enraged at last February’s grid failure and the failures of the Texas Railroad Commissioners in preventing it. Time and time again, we see Commissioner Wayne Christian enriching his billionaire oil and gas executive donors at the expense of Texas consumers and Texans have had enough. As I’ve traveled across the state, folks have told me that they are fed up with the failed leadership at the Texas Railroad Commission and plan to hold Wayne Christian accountable this November.”
For obvious reasons, a poll featuring two low-profile candidates – in the details for each survey, you can see that very few people know who “Wayne Christian” or “Luke Warford” are – should be taken very lightly. But what the people who took these polls do know, because they were told, is that Christian is the Republican incumbent and Warford is the Democratic challenger. As such, I don’t think it’s a stretch to take these as proxies for basic partisan preference. On that score, the initial question in the March poll, in which respondents were only given names and parties, Christian led 46-35; in the August poll it was 44-40. For the followup question, asked after the respondents were given a brief biography of each, it was 48-40 in March and 45-43 in August, which is where that “statistical tie” claim comes from.
These are different polls, they both have “don’t know” or third party responses totaling over ten points, and there’s going to be a lot of money spent boosting multiple other candidates in the coming weeks. With all that, it seems clear that Dems are in a better position now than they were in March, which given everything we’ve seen nationally is perfectly reasonable. Where we go from here remains an open question, but this is the data we have today. Make of it what you will.
What I make of it is:
Texas isn’t happy with its State leadership.
Yet, Texas is a center-right state (the only reason to be in/stay in my home state is employment) .
Moderate Democrats can win in Texas (look at Arizona), and I will leave it at that.
Greg: where “moderate” means “not seeking radical change,” the word “moderate” is equivalent to the word “conservative,” by definition.
most democrats are “moderates,” here and elsewhere. few republicans are “moderates,” or even moderates, or even conservatives anymore, whatever they may call themselves.
in a state where the plurality of voters, even a narrow one, still identify as republican, no moderate can win anything statewide, regardless of their party affiliation. qed.