There are 15 members on the State Board of Education, five Democrats and ten Republicans. Of those ten Republican-held seats, four of them were in districts that were interesting in 2016:
Dist Incumbent Clinton Trump Obama Romney
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SBOE5 Mercer 47.0% 46.8% 42.9% 54.7%
SBOE6 Bahorich 46.3% 48.6% 38.8% 59.7%
SBOE10 Maynard 42.5% 51.6% 40.5% 57.0%
SBOE12 Miller 44.4% 50.1% 38.7% 59.7%
SBOE7 Bradley* 37.1% 59.2% 35.2% 63.6%
Dist Incumbent Burns Keasler Hampton Keller
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SBOE5 Mercer 43.5% 51.3% 41.7% 53.7%
SBOE6 Bahorich 41.5% 54.8% 38.5% 58.7%
SBOE10 Maynard 39.8% 54.7% 40.1% 54.9%
SBOE12 Miller 39.1% 56.6% 37.7% 58.8%
SBOE7 Bradley* 35.9% 60.9% 36.6% 60.8%
I included David Bradley’s numbers here because his will be an open seat in 2018, but as you can see he really doesn’t belong. Add Ken Mercer’s SBOE5 to the list of districts that were carried by Hillary Clinton. I hadn’t realized it till I looked at the data. I had previously identified Mercer’s district as a viable target last year, and indeed it was a close race – he won by four points and failed to clear fifty percent. SBOE terms are four years so the next shot at Mercer isn’t until 2020, but he needs to be on the priority list then.
Districts 6 and 10 were also on the ballot last year and thus not up again till 2020. District 6, which is entirely within Harris County, shifted about seven points in a blue direction, and while I’d expect it to continue to shift as the county does, it’s still got a ways to go to get to parity. With SBOE districts being twice as big as Senate districts and generally being completely under the radar, getting crossovers is a challenge. District 10 didn’t really shift much, but it’s close enough to imagine something good happening in a strong year. District 12 is the only one on the ballot next year, and it’s the reddest of the four based on the downballot data. But if there’s a Trump effect next year, who knows what could happen. It certainly deserves a decent candidate. Keep it in mind as we go forward.