Tag Archives: Election 2018

Today is election day

Posted on November 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s what we’ve been waiting for, for what seems like forever. From the inbox: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 is Election Day. Voting locations will be open from 7 am to 7 pm. Voters may visit www.HarrisVotes.com, the County Clerk’s election … Continue reading →

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An under the radar pickup opportunity

Posted on November 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s an open seat in the SBOE. Suzanne Smith says she has tried to run a nonpartisan campaign in her low-profile bid for a place on the State Board of Education. But she stands to benefit from the current contentious … Continue reading →

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Two possible straws in the wind

Posted on November 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Ken Paxton seems a little nervous. Less than 36 hours before Election Day, the race for attorney general is showing signs of competition that have been absent in just about every other statewide contest. Republican incumbent Ken Paxton, who was … Continue reading →

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The trend in mail ballots

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wanted to take a closer look at the not-in-person aspect of early voting: Year Mailed Returned Return% Dem % ========================================= 2008 76,187 68,612 90.06% 36.60% 2010 69,991 55,560 79.38% 30.82% 2012 92,290 76,085 82.44% 41.79% 2014 89,073 71,994 80.83% 48.94% … Continue reading →

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Texas and Tarrant

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib looks at Beto O’Rourke’s campaign focus on Tarrant County. Fort Worth and its outlying ranches and suburbs are mostly a backwater in Texas politics. Gerrymandered to the hilt, the national parties have mostly ignored this county. But since … Continue reading →

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Another reminder that the judicial elections are important

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the Trib: Across the country, many public defender’s offices are overwhelmed with cases. But the public defenders in Harris County’s juvenile division are in an unusual situation: They say that they aren’t getting assigned enough cases. And advocates say … Continue reading →

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Two stories about grassroots GOTV efforts

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Both from the Observer. First, Inside Beto’s Plan to Turn Out Black Voters in Houston: With two days till early voting, Cameron Mayfield, a Beto O’Rourke field organizer, gets busy setting up a makeshift campaign office in a corner of … Continue reading →

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Projecting Tuesday turnout

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the statewide view. By the time the polls closed Thursday, 33.7 percent of registered voters in Bexar County had voted, well past the 17.3 percent turnout at the same point in 2014, the last midterm, and close to the … Continue reading →

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The Courts of Appeals

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The other judicial races where Dems have a chance to gain ground. Republicans dominate Texas politics — but their stranglehold is especially noticeable in the courts. Republicans hold all 18 seats on the state’s two high courts. Of the state’s … Continue reading →

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A macro view of the Asian-American vote in 2018

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good article. Minority voter engagement in Texas is often viewed as an effort to get Hispanic and African Americans to the polls. But Asian Americans are now the fastest growing minority group in the country—accounting for an estimated 5 percent … Continue reading →

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Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day 12: Final curtain

Posted on November 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It was apparently a late night with long lines, and the report didn’t arrive by 10 PM, so you’ll have to settle for this. When the polls closed in Harris County Friday, more voters had cast ballots than in any … Continue reading →

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Top to bottom Congressional fundraising prowess

Posted on November 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Standing before a packed crowd at the Austin City Limits Music Festival earlier this month, Julie Oliver delivered an impassioned speech highlighting her support for marijuana legalization and universal health care. “Are … Continue reading →

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Two stories on Joseph Kopser in CD21

Posted on November 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Article One, which focuses on Kopser’s background in science. Crowded around a circular wooden table in a loud bar on Sunday night, Joseph Kopser raises his voice in an effort to be heard, as rock music duels with a football … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day 11: Almost done

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Before we get to the numbers, here’s my new favorite quote of the cycle: “If Ted Cruz had Beto’s campaign manager he’d be leading by 20 points,” said Dan Rogers, the Republican chairman in Potter County, where Cruz drew about … Continue reading →

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Emerson College: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 47

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to quit making predictions about when we’ve seen the last poll for this cycle. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) holds a 3-point lead over his Senate challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) ahead of next week’s midterm elections, … Continue reading →

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A broader look at the statewide judicial races

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the Trib: Judicial candidates are subject to strict campaign finance restrictions, making it difficult to get their names out across a state of 28 million. And they must walk a difficult line as they campaign, running as partisans without … Continue reading →

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Seeking a solution for the translators

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Glad to see it. Three days after election workers barred translators from asking Korean-American voters if they needed assistance inside a Spring Branch polling place, Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart met with a group of Korean-Americans to find a way … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day 10: Happy Halloween

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Wednesday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler: Cruz 47.0, O’Rourke 43.4

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Okay, fine, this is the final poll of the cycle. Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released … Continue reading →

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Shame on you, Stan Stanart

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Just go away. Judging by Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart’s campaign website, you might think that he is running against George Soros — the billionaire Jewish philanthropist who’s become a worldwide lightning rod for anti-Semitic groups, white supremacists and conspiracy … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day 9: Who are these people?

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The question keeps getting asked, who is it that has been voting so far? An unprecedented number of Texans cast their ballots during the first week of early voting, but it is impossible to predict whether that surge will benefit … Continue reading →

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Zerwas out, Bonnen in for Speaker

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

A harbinger of intrigue. State Rep. John Zerwas, a Richmond Republican, has withdrawn from the race for speaker of the Texas House, he confirmed to The Texas Tribune on Sunday evening. “I am grateful for the opportunities I have had … Continue reading →

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“The least-discussed vulnerable Republican on the ballot”

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From Grits: Grits does not expect Beto O’Rourke to win. But if he were to pull off the upset, many other dominos could fall in succession as a result, with at least three Republican senators, Texas’ Attorney General, and potentially … Continue reading →

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Translators

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I wish there were a better way to handle this. The Harris County Clerk’s office on Monday defended a decision by election workers to bar translators offering assistance to Korean-American voters from a Spring Branch polling site the day before. … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day 8: On to Week 2

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Monday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Cruz 51, O’Rourke 46

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

One last poll for the road. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 percentage points, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. The poll, released Monday with just a over a week left … Continue reading →

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More campus voting issues

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, Texas State. The long early voting line that wrapped around the LBJ Student Center earlier this week was a welcome sign to those at Texas State University who were hoping for strong enthusiasm among young voters on campus. But … Continue reading →

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Schwertner claims sexually suggestive text did not come from his phone

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

His lawyers say that, anyway. Lawyers for state Sen. Charles Schwertner said Monday that the Georgetown Republican, under fire for allegedly sending lewd messages to a University of Texas at Austin student, submitted his phone to a forensic examiner who … Continue reading →

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Day 7 early voting: Let the hot takes begin

Posted on October 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to quote this bit from this story about how the Senate campaigns are interpreting the early vote turnout so far. Derek Ryan, a GOP data consultant who previously worked for the state party, said there are a … Continue reading →

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Will teachers turn out for Mike Collier?

Posted on October 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

He sure hopes so. On his long-shot campaign to unseat incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Collier is hoping he’s popular in a lot of rooms that look like this one — where after hearing from him, education-focused voters in a … Continue reading →

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Day 6 early voting: A very early stab at projecting turnout

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is the point in the early voting process where early voting hours expand, and as a result daily EV reports come in later. That may affect my ability to present the latest data each day, so I’m going to … Continue reading →

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The eSlate issue

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Everyone please take a deep breath. Some straight-ticket voters have reported that voting machines recorded them selecting the candidate of another party for U.S. Senate, exposing a potential problem with the integrity of the state’s high-profile contest between U.S. Sen. … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Fort Bend DA

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

One last recommendation. The race for Fort Bend District Attorney presents voters with a choice that’s starting to feel familiar in Texas politics: An experienced Republican who represents the past and an upstart Democrat who wants to welcome the future. … Continue reading →

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