Tag Archives: precinct analysis

Precinct analysis: One of these things is not like the others

Posted on March 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s finish up our look at the primary precinct data with a peek at the Republican side of things. As a reminder, my analysis of the Democratic Senate primary is here, my analysis of the Governor and Lt. Governor races … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Countywide candidates

Posted on March 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We have four – count ’em, four – runoffs for Harris County office nominations for May. Every contested countywide non-judicial primary – that is, everything other than County Judge – is going to overtime. I’m going to look at the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Guv and Lite Guv

Posted on March 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We move now to the Democratic primaries for Governor and Lt. Governor. I did not analyze any of the other Democratic statewide contested primaries, mostly because they were sufficiently low-profile that I didn’t think there was anything of interest to … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto in Harris County

Posted on March 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I now have a canvass of the primaries in Harris County, so you know what that means – time for some precinct analyses. I’ve got a few of these to do, so let’s dive right in. First up, a look … Continue reading →

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The rural/suburban tradeoff

Posted on August 10, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Martin Longman returns to a point he has been making about the way the vote shifted in the 2016 election. Let’s try to be clear about what we mean. Hillary Clinton won a lot of votes in the suburbs from … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Humble ISD

Posted on July 9, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

I’d been meaning to go back to the Humble ISD election in May, where two Project LIFT candidates were running against incumbent members, to see what I could learn. The canvass reports are up on the Harris County Clerk website, … Continue reading →

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We have a candidate in CD02

Posted on June 22, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Meet Todd Litton, the first declared Democratic candidate of which I am aware for CD02, which is entirely within Harris County and which is held by Rep. Ted Poe, who has been there since 2004. I don’t know much about … Continue reading →

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Two (so far) for SD10

Posted on June 19, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s what we learn in this Star-Telegram story about incumbent Sen. Konni Burton’s intent to run for re-election. At least two Democrats already have announced their intention to seek Burton’s seat. Allison Campolo, a research scientist and teaching assistant at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: SBOE districts

Posted on June 12, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 members on the State Board of Education, five Democrats and ten Republicans. Of those ten Republican-held seats, four of them were in districts that were interesting in 2016: Dist Incumbent Clinton Trump Obama Romney ================================================= SBOE5 Mercer … Continue reading →

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Matt Rinaldi holds a swing seat

Posted on June 5, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Just something to keep in mind. State Rep. Matt Rinaldi’s scuffle Monday with Hispanic lawmakers is already putting a bright spotlight on his House district — and whether he can hold on to it in 2018. Rinaldi, an Irving Republican, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

Posted on May 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Texas Legislative Council now has full data from the 2016 elections on its site, so this seemed like as good a time as any to take a look at the data from Congressional districts. I’m much more limited in … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The targets for 2018

Posted on March 20, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey recently surveyed the 2018 electoral landscape. Election numbers recently released by the Texas Legislative Council point to some soft spots in this red state’s political underbelly — places where Republicans hold office now but where Democrats at the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Dallas county elections

Posted on March 1, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

One more look at Dallas County, this time with the county-level judicial races. I like to use these partly because they’re a pretty good proxy for partisan preference, and partly because they provide a straight up two-party comparison, which is … Continue reading →

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Our first look at Senate district data

Posted on February 28, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib looks at the data we now have. In the state Senate, one Republican — Don Huffines of Dallas — is now representing a district that Clinton easily won, while two more — Konni Burton of Colleyville and Joan … Continue reading →

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As goes Tarrant

Posted on February 19, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib ponders the one big urban county that is not like the others. Among the state’s five biggest counties, Tarrant is the only one that hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate in the past decade. The 2016 presidential election … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Dallas County statewides

Posted on February 7, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

Last time we looked at the Presidential numbers in Dallas County legislative districts (plus CD32). Today we follow up with a look at the statewide races. I’m going to throw a lot of numbers at you, so please bear with … Continue reading →

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DCCC says it will aim for three Texas Congressional seats

Posted on February 6, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

We’ll see what this means in practice. The House Democratic campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, announced Monday morning that the party intends to target two longtime GOP incumbents that, until recently, have long been considered locks for re-election: … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Dallas County Presidential numbers

Posted on January 31, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

News flash: Hillary Clinton won every Dallas County State Rep district. See for yourself: Dist Trump Clinton Johnson Stein ======================================== CD32 117,758 127,824 5,751 1,056 HD100 8,405 33,647 647 217 HD102 24,768 30,291 1,312 287 HD103 8,710 28,689 683 205 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Texas Congressional districts

Posted on January 13, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

From Daily Kos: Texas’s GOP-drawn congressional map was designed to create 24 safely red seats and 11 safely Democratic districts, with only the 23rd District in the western part of the state being truly competitive. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried … Continue reading →

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The Trib looks at Fort Bend’s Democratic trend

Posted on January 11, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

It’s worth noting. Despite long being considered a Republican county, Fort Bend went blue on Nov. 8 when Hillary Clinton won the county with an almost seven-point margin of victory. It wasn’t just an electoral flip — it was a … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Brazoria County

Posted on December 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I had some time to spare, so I spent it with the canvass reports from Brazoria County. You know, like you do. Here’s what I was able to learn. Trump Clinton R Avg D Avg Weber Cole ======================================================= Votes 36,572 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Don’t be mesmerized by the Clinton/Trump numbers

Posted on December 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the DMN: Donald Trump may have carried Texas and clinched the White House in November, but support for the Republican presidential nominee waned in parts of the Dallas area — news that, in a typical election year, could spell … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Fort Bend State Rep districts

Posted on December 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Following on from yesterday’s post, here’s a look at the vote in Fort Bend from the perspective of the State Rep districts. Office Rep Dem Rep % Dem % =============================================== President 35,005 31,558 52.59% 47.41% CJ, 1st CofA 40,047 28,336 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Fort Bend Commissioners Court precincts

Posted on December 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I have not done Fort Bend precinct analyses in the past because I don’t get easily-worked-with CSV-format canvass reports from them after elections. However, it turns out that their election returns page for this year has a “Reports” button on … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: None of the above

Posted on December 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We have been told that this was a year where many people were unhappy with the two main choices they had for President. We looked at Presidential numbers in Harris County before, and now we’re going to look again, at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Bennett v Sullivan

Posted on December 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Ann Harris Bennett was the only countywide Democratic candidate to be trailing on Election Day as the early voting totals were posted, but as the night went on she cut into the deficit and finally took the lead around 10 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Ryan v Leitner

Posted on December 5, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan was the only non-judicial incumbent elected in November. Here’s how his race looked. Dist Leitner Ryan Leitner% Ryan% ========================================== CD02 158,149 113,363 58.25% 41.75% CD07 135,129 116,091 53.79% 46.21% CD09 25,714 106,728 19.42% 80.58% CD10 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Ogg v Anderson

Posted on November 29, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Kim Ogg had the second highest vote total in Harris County this year. Let’s see how that looked at a more granular level. Dist Anderson Ogg Anderson% Ogg% ========================================== CD02 156,027 117,810 56.98% 43.02% CD07 135,065 118,837 53.20% 46.80% CD09 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: District courts

Posted on November 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Today we will look at the Harris County-specific judicial races, by which I mean the district courts plus two County Court benches. I’m going to begin with something a little different, which is a look at the distribution of how … Continue reading →

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HISD special election runoff will be December 10

Posted on November 22, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t believe I’ve seen a news story about this. The runoff election for the top two candidates to fill the unexpired term of outgoing HISD District VII Trustee Harvin Moore has been set for Dec. 10. Candidates competing in … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State courts

Posted on November 21, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We return to our tour of the precinct data with a look at the statewide judicial races. These tend to be interesting mostly as proxies for base partisan support, but there are variations that reflect qualities about the candidates. That’s … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The RRC and the Libertarian moment

Posted on November 16, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Back to precinct analysis, and the race that I featured in my post from yesterday, the Railroad Commissioner race. Here are the numbers: Dist Christian Yarbrough Miller Salinas =========================================== CD02 152,751 97,235 18,346 6,835 CD07 130,384 96,652 20,510 6,537 CD09 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Hillary in Harris County

Posted on November 14, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s get started with the precinct data, shall we? Here’s a Chron story from the day after the election about how things looked overall in the county. The country’s most populous swing county turned a shade bluer Tuesday, when Hillary … Continue reading →

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Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

Posted on November 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do … Continue reading →

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