Tag Archives: polls

Trib overview of the Houston Mayor’s race

Posted on October 29, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Not really anything here you don’t already know, but a good summary of the race so far. With early voting underway, the Houston mayoral race is not lacking for drama, but through it all, a fundamental question has persisted: Whatever … Continue reading →

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The Chron on Boykins and Lovell

Posted on October 22, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Time for more profiles of Mayoral candidates. Here’s the Chron piece on Dwight Boykins. “My goal is to use this position as mayor to let people know that there is hope,” [CM Dwight Boykins] said. “I’m trying to help the … Continue reading →

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UH poll: Turner 43, Buzbee 23, King 8

Posted on October 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Another encouraging poll for Mayor Turner as early voting starts. Mayor Sylvester Turner retains a wide lead over his opponents, most of whom have failed to gain traction with weeks left until Election Day, according to a University of Houston … Continue reading →

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PPP: Competitive Congressional districts are competitive

Posted on October 2, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Some nice data points for you. A handful of Republican-held House seats in the Texas suburbs represent fertile ground for competitive races in 2020, according to recent Democratic polling. The surveys in six GOP districts, shared first with CQ Roll … Continue reading →

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KHOU/HPM poll: Turner 37, Buzbee 20, King 10

Posted on September 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

We must be getting into the serious part of Houston Election Season, because we have our first public poll of the Mayor’s race. Mayor Sylvester Turner leads trial lawyer and businessman Tony Buzbee by 17 points, according to a KHOU/Houston … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler: Trump still looks weak in Texas

Posted on September 22, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Two months later, there may be a story line to watch. Beto O’Rourke remains competitive against President Donald Trump in a Texas head-to-head matchup, according to a poll released Thursday by the Center for Opinion Research at the University of … Continue reading →

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Bell officially begins his Senate campaign

Posted on September 19, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Yeah, I know, I also thought that this had already happened. Just a reminder that these things occur in stages. Democrat Chris Bell, the former Houston congressman and gubernatorial nominee, is formally announcing his U.S. Senate campaign. Bell, who has … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Lots of Texans don’t intend to vote for Trump

Posted on September 12, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

More nice polling news. President Trump’s job approval rating remains marginally underwater in Texas, with 45 percent of registered voters saying that they approve and 50 percent saying that they disapprove. Thinking ahead to 2020, 48 percent of Texas voters … Continue reading →

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Univision News poll: Trump 42, Dem 47

Posted on September 11, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a fun poll. Days away from the third Democratic debate in Houston and over a year from the 2020 presidential election, an exclusive poll by Univision News found that 40% of registered voters in the state say they will … Continue reading →

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Yet another story about suburbs shifting away from Republicans

Posted on August 31, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Collect the whole set! Texas is currently experiencing two trends that are favorable to Democrats: increasing urbanization, and big demographic shifts. The Texas Tribune recently reported that Hispanics are expected to become the largest demographic group in the state by 2022, with … Continue reading →

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Beto is still not running for Senate

Posted on August 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Sorry, y’all. Beto O’Rourke will return to the presidential campaign trail Thursday for the first time since the Aug. 3 massacre of 22 people at a Walmart in his hometown by a suspect who told police he was hunting “Mexicans” … Continue reading →

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Emerson’s weird polls

Posted on August 11, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

It’s a poll, so we do the thing. A new poll has former Vice President Joe Biden leading Beto O’Rourke in the Texas presidential primary and toppling Donald Trump in a head-to-head showdown. The survey, conducted by Emerson College for … Continue reading →

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That UT-Tyler poll

Posted on August 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I suppose I have to talk about this. A poll conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at the University of Texas at Tyler showed [Beto O’Rourke] leading among Texas voters in the Democratic presidential primary. The survey showed O’Rourke … Continue reading →

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Biden talks big about Texas

Posted on June 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

And other states, too. Democratic front-runner Joe Biden said Monday he plans to campaign during the general election and win in South Carolina, Georgia and Texas, states that have consistently supported Republicans for about four decades. “We plan on campaigning … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: So this is what a swing state looks like

Posted on June 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

This is not the poll I’m looking for, but it still tells us something. Half of the registered voters in Texas would vote to reelect President Donald Trump, but half of them would not, according to the latest University of … Continue reading →

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Checking in on the national political atmosphere

Posted on June 13, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox, via G. Elliott Morris’ weekly email blast: Are Democrats doing as well as they were in 2017-2018? The plural of “anecdote” is not “data”, but that’s what special elections and the generic ballot are for. These numbers … Continue reading →

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Could Beto-Cornyn still happen?

Posted on June 8, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

According to that same Quinnipiac poll, some people would like for it to happen. Most Texas Democrats say they’d prefer for former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke to abandon his campaign for president and instead take on Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. … Continue reading →

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Still ridiculously early poll: Biden leads Trump by four

Posted on June 7, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Encouraging, but the usual caveats apply. President Donald Trump is locked in too-close-to-call races with any one of seven top Democratic challengers in the 2020 presidential race in Texas, where former Vice President Joseph Biden has 48 percent to President … Continue reading →

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An early review of the Senate campaign so far

Posted on May 19, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I have thoughts about this. When U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro announced earlier this month that he would not run for U.S. Senate in 2020, the San Antonio Democrat cleared up one major question hanging over his party’s primary. But the … Continue reading →

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DCCC polls Trump in three target districts

Posted on April 22, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

News flash: Donald Trump is not very popular. Surveys the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently conducted found that 41 percent of voters approved of Trump’s job performance in Texas’ 24th congressional district, where Rep. Kenny Marchant serves, while 44 percent … Continue reading →

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Using Beto 2018 to project Beto 2020

Posted on April 15, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The NYT recently took a deep dive into the 2018 election data from Texas, and came out seeing a real swing state, partly because of Beto and partly for other reasons. Mr. O’Rourke’s close result wasn’t because of an exceptional … Continue reading →

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The Lege versus the polls

Posted on March 31, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

There are reasons for this. Politicians are often said to be chasing the polls, but sometimes they run the other way. According to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, at least two issues popular with a majority of Republican … Continue reading →

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The Harris County poll you didn’t really need

Posted on March 23, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Sponsored by HRBC, a survey was released today that reveals many insights into Harris County voters and their feelings towards political leaders and important issues facing Harris County. “While Harris County voters feel very differently about various … Continue reading →

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Ridiculously early UT/TT poll: “Not Trump” leads

Posted on March 6, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll take it. A slight majority of Texas voters would choose someone other than Donald Trump in a presidential race held right now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. While 45 percent said they would “definitely vote … Continue reading →

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Ridiculously early Quinnipiac poll: Trump has a small lead

Posted on March 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Consider this to be for entertainment purposes only. In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. … Continue reading →

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The state of equality 2019

Posted on February 28, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From Equality Texas: IN 2019, THE STATE OF EQUALITY IS: OUT OF STEP WITH TEXAS VALUES As the 2019 Texas Legislature approaches the mid-point, Equality Texas has surveyed the current state of equality and concluded that urgent legislative action is … Continue reading →

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Everyone’s talking about John Cornyn

Posted on February 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I feel like I’ve read more stories about John Cornyn lately than I read about Beto a year ago at this time. As President Donald Trump embarked for El Paso on Monday to rally support for a border wall, Texas … Continue reading →

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Equality Texas poll on non-discrimination laws

Posted on February 11, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: New data released by national polling organization Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) shows majority support from every major demographic group for laws to protect LGBTQ Texans from discrimination. “This poll shows that Texas has turned the corner, … Continue reading →

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An in-depth look at the Beto-Cruz race

Posted on November 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good long read from the Trib about the Senate race, which they published after I was well into my county vote analysis. There’s too much to summarize here, but I want to focus on a couple of points. Organizationally, O’Rourke … Continue reading →

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The CD23 race isn’t quite over yet

Posted on November 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I believe it is highly unlikely that the outcome in CD23 will change from the current close win for Rep. Will Hurd, but we are not done counting the votes just yet. The Texas congressional race between incumbent Republican Will … Continue reading →

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Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading →

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Emerson College: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 47

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to quit making predictions about when we’ve seen the last poll for this cycle. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) holds a 3-point lead over his Senate challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) ahead of next week’s midterm elections, … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler: Cruz 47.0, O’Rourke 43.4

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Okay, fine, this is the final poll of the cycle. Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released … Continue reading →

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“The least-discussed vulnerable Republican on the ballot”

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From Grits: Grits does not expect Beto O’Rourke to win. But if he were to pull off the upset, many other dominos could fall in succession as a result, with at least three Republican senators, Texas’ Attorney General, and potentially … Continue reading →

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