Tag Archives: Joe Biden

Here comes the vaccine

Posted on December 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Houston’s first doses have arrived. Months of waiting for a COVID-19 vaccine to arrive in Houston are almost — but not quite — over, as hospitals prepare to move the first doses from sealed subzero shipments and into the arms … Continue reading →

Posted in Technology, science, and math, The great state of Texas | Tagged Congress, coronavirus, Donald Trump, face masks, Greg Abbott, Houston, Joe Biden, quarantine, stimulus, Texas, vaccinations | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Comparing to 2012 and 2016

Posted on December 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts I had meant to get to this last week, but SeditionPalooza took up too much of my time, so here we are. The intent of this post is to compare vote … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Christi Craddick, Chrysta Castaneda, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eva Guzman, Harris County, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD131, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD137, HD138, HD139, HD140, HD141, HD142, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD146, HD147, HD148, HD149, HD150, Hillary Clinton, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, Paul Sadler, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, turnout, Wayne Christian | 4 Comments

Now we wait on SCOTUS

Posted on December 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The state of Texas filed its reply to the defendants’ responses to its democracy–killing lawsuit, and, well, it’s something. This brings us the Texas AG Ken Paxton’s reply–or, rather, replies, as there are multiple filings, including a motion to enlarge … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, Legal matters, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, Allen West, Attorney General, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2020, Electoral College, endorsements, Georgia, Greg Abbott, Joe Biden, Ken Paxton, Kyle Hawkins, lawsuit, Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania, President, SCOTUS, secession, Steve Bullock, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin | 26 Comments

Precinct analysis: Commissioners Court and JP/Constable precincts

Posted on December 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts We now zoom in for a look at various county districts, which are also called “precincts”. I don’t know why we have County Commissioner precincts and JP/Constable precincts to go along with regular voting … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beto O'Rourke, Chrysta Castaneda, Commissioners Court, Constable, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Israel Garcia, Jack Morman, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Justice of the Peace, Laryssa Korduba, Mark Alan Harrison, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Russ Ridgway, Senate, Ted Heap, Texas, Tom Ramsey | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: State Rep districts

Posted on December 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts We move now to State Rep districts, which is my usual currency since they provide complete coverage of the county with no partial pieces. You can also get a much more nuanced view of how things have … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Chrysta Castaneda, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD131, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD137, HD138, HD139, HD140, HD141, HD142, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD146, HD147, HD148, HD149, HD150, Hubert Vo, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mary Ann Perez, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Sarah Davis, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

Posted on December 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction All right, let’s get this party started. In the past I’ve generally done the top races by themselves, but any race involving Trump provides challenges, because his level of support just varies in comparison to other Republicans depending on … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD02, CD07, CD08, CD09, CD10, CD18, CD22, CD29, CD36, Chrysta Castaneda, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Lizzie FLetcher, Mike McCaul, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Senate, Sheila Jackson Lee, Sima Ladjevardian, Sylvia Garcia, Texas, Wendell Champion, Wesley Hunt | 5 Comments

The vaccine distribution challenge

Posted on November 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Having a vaccine for COVID-19 is wonderful. Being able to make it available to everyone who needs it is a big challenge. With cases spiking to over 10 million, the virus is everywhere, and spreading deeply into every corner of … Continue reading →

Posted in The great state of Texas | Tagged coronavirus, Greg Abbott, Joe Biden, Lipscomb County, Mark McClellan, Moderna, Pfizer, Texas, Texas Department of State Health Services, vaccinations | 1 Comment

We might get better Census apportionment data

Posted on November 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Some good news. The Census Bureau has identified issues in the data from the 2020 decennial census that will take an additional 20 days or so for it to fix, and thus delay the release of survey’s apportionment data until … Continue reading →

Posted in National news | Tagged Census, Commerce Department, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2020, immigration, Joe Biden, lawsuit, redistricting, SCOTUS | 1 Comment

Beware color-coded county maps

Posted on November 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I spotted this on Twitter the other day and it got me thinking: . Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama’s 3.86 pt win in 2012. He’ll exceed it soon. They won by … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Bastrop County, Caldwell County, Comal County, Donald Trump, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Johnson County, King County, Lubbock, Medina County, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

A high level look at the changing suburbs

Posted on November 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib takes a broad and high-level look at what I’m digging into now. Although they didn’t get the blue wave they expected, Democrats narrowed the gap with Republicans in five of the most competitive and populous suburban counties in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Chambers County, Collin County, Dallas County, demography, Denton County, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Hays County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Johnson County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, Parker County, President, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Please stop with the straight ticket voting anecdotes

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Either bring me some real data or leave these just so stories alone. Judging from Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Dallas County, Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button should have been doomed this November. Meyer and Button are the only two … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Brandy Chambers, Donald Trump, Eddie Morales, Election 2018, Election 2020, HD108, HD112, HD134, HD31, HD74, Joanna Cattanach, Joe Biden, Morgan Meyer, President, Ryan Guillen, Sarah Davis, Senate, straight ticket voting, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

A closer look at county races, Part 1

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In this series of entries, I’m going to take a trip through the local election results pages on some counties of interest, to get a closer look at how they went this year and how that compares to 2016. We … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bexar County, Carlos Uresti, CD31, Commissioners Court, Constable, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Fagan, Falls County, Fort Bend County, Harris County, HD117, HD118, HD136, HD52, HD85, Hillary Clinton, James Talarico, Jennifer Cantu, Joe Biden, Joe Lopez, John Bucy, John Carter, John Cornyn, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Larry Gonzales, Leo Pacheco, Mike Clark, Mike Gleason, MJ Hegar, Pete Flores, Phil Stephenson, Phillip Cortez, President, Railroad Commission, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, Richard Morrison, Robert Chody, Roland Gutierrez, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Sheriff, Supreme Court, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, Tomas Uresti, Tony Dale, Williamson County | 3 Comments

The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hays County, Hillary Clinton, I-35, Joe Biden, John McCain, Jones County, Mitt Romney, President, Tarrant County, Texas, turnout, voter registration, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Harris County posts updated election results

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter: . That won’t affect most races, and it probably does not affect any Harris-County specific races. But if provisional ballots are like that statewide, it could affect larger, close elections. I’m particularly watching Chief Justice for the 14th … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged 14th Court of Appeals, Amparo Guerra, Austin County, Brazoria County, CD07, Chambers County, Colorado County, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Gina Calanni, Grimes County, Harris County, HD132, HD135, Jane Robinson, Joe Biden, Jon Rosenthal, judicial races, Lizzie FLetcher, Mike Schofield, Military and Overseas Voting Empowerment Act, President, provisional ballots, Terry Adams, Texas, The Lege, Tracy Christopher, Waller County, Washington County | 1 Comment

The state of the county 2020

Posted on November 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Mostly, COVID is bad and we’re not getting much help, and we’re also not allowed to do the things we know we need to do. Other than that… The worsening COVID-19 pandemic in Texas, which this week became the first … Continue reading →

Posted in Local politics | Tagged coronavirus, El Paso, face masks, Greg Abbott, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Ike Dike, Joe Biden, Lina Hidalgo, local control, quarantine, Texas | 1 Comment

So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 2 Comments

More early data from State Rep districts

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Derek Ryan on Twitter: . President Trump won House District 74, a Democrat-held district in West Texas along the border, with 53.1%. He also won House District 31, a Democrat-held district in South Texas with 56.2%. — Derek Ryan … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Abel Herrero, Cameron County, Donald Trump, Eddie Morales, Election 2004, Election 2020, Election 2022, George Bush, HD134, HD31, HD34, HD43, HD74, Hidalgo County, Joe Biden, Nueces County, precinct analysis, redistricting, Ryan Guillen, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

Looking ahead to 2022

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Continuing with the brain dumps, which are my post-election tradition. This is a collection of thoughts about the next big election, in 2022. As I said earlier, I take no position on the question of what effect the disparity in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Cecile Richards, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Joe Biden, judicial races, Julian Castro, Lina Hidalgo, Lite Gov, marijuana, Medicaid, Mitch McConnell, President, primaries, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 6 Comments

It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD18, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Justice of the Peace, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

If W can accept the outcome…

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Seems like a basic exercise in maintaining democracy, but what do I know? Former President George W. Bush congratulated President-elect Joe Biden on Sunday, sending a clear signal to other Republicans, including President Donald Trump, who are questioning the election … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2020, George Bush, Joe Biden, President, Texas | 5 Comments

A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Houston celebrates Biden’s win

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Aw, hell yeah. “Honk for 270!” When CNN announced Joe Biden had crossed the 270-electoral college vote mark needed to secure the presidency, Terrance Koontz elatedly shouted at Saturday’s “Voters Decide: Count Every Vote” rally in Southwest Houston. “Let’s let … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Election 2020, Houston, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, President | 2 Comments

A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Dallas County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2020, HD137, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Jolt Initiative, Latino voting, polls, precinct analysis, President, Starr County, Texas, turnout | 11 Comments

Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, President, provisional ballots, redistricting, Sheriff, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beto O'Rourke, CD02, Chrysta Castaneda, Commissioners Court, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Grady Yarbrough, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HCDE, HD108, HD112, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD132, HD133, HD135, HD138, HD150, Jack Morman, Jane Bland, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Senate, straight ticket voting, Supreme Court, Texas, The Lege, Tom Ramsey, turnout, voter registration, Wendy Davis | 8 Comments

So what happened in the Latino counties?

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s go to the data: County Trump Clinton Trump Biden ============================================= Bexar 240,333 319,550 303,871 440,823 Cameron 29,472 59,402 48,834 63,732 Dimmit 974 2,173 1,384 2,264 El Paso 55,512 147,843 81,235 168,801 Frio 1,856 2,444 2,812 2,421 Hidalgo 48,642 118,809 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Bexar County, Cameron County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2020, Frio County, Hidalgo County, Hillary Clinton, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Latino voting, Maverick County, Nueces County, polls, President, Presidio County, Starr County, Texas, turnout, Webb County, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 3 Comments

The role Harris County can play in turning Texas blue

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big county + big turnout = big margin. Texas is not the sort of place national candidates visit just before Election Day or where political ads play on a loop during popular TV shows. And, yet, here we are: Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

A focus on the SCOTX races

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

With so much litigation over a variety of voting issues, the Supreme Court of Texas is in the news a lot these days. Will that mean more attention being paid to the four races for SCOTX positions? The sleepy contests … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Amy Clark Meachum, Beto O'Rourke, Brett Busby, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gisela Triana, Jane Bland, Jeff Boyd, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Kathy Cheng, MJ Hegar, Nathan Hecht, polls, Staci Williams, straight ticket voting, Supreme Court, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 2 Comments

Today is Election Day

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It almost feels unreal, doesn’t it? Like some people have been saying while on line at voting locations, we’ve been waiting four whole years for this. Now it’s here, Texas is considered a swing state, the Lege is in play, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Chris Hollins, Congress, early voting, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Joe Biden, MJ Hegar, President, Senate, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voting centers | 2 Comments

A few thoughts about Election 2020 before Tuesday

Posted on November 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a brain dump, to get this all out there before we find out what happened. Let’s start with this: After the conclusion of three weeks of early voting, 9.7 million Texans have cast ballots, crushing previous early voting totals … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Chris Hollins, Collin County, Comal County, coronavirus, Denton County, Donald Trump, drop off boxes, early voting, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Fort Bend County, Greg Abbott, Guadalupe County, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Hays County, Joe Biden, lawsuit, Montgomery County, polls, President, Texas, Travis County, turnout, voter ID, voter registration, Williamson County | 16 Comments

Univision: Trump 49, Biden 46

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Always time for one more poll, apparently. The race for the White House in Texas is so close in the Nov 3 presidential election that it’s beginning to look uncharacteristically like a swing state, according to a new Univision News … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Arizona, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Florida, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, Pennsylvania, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 3 Comments

DFP: Biden 49, Trump 48

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, from Twitter: . Biden leads 54 to 45 among those that have already voted. For more information on early vote statistics (and for live results on election night) visit https://2020.dataforprogress.org. — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 10:50 AM – … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 2 Comments

More investment from Bloomberg

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, better late than never. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is funding a last-minute ad blitz on behalf of Joe Biden in Texas and Ohio, providing a boost to the former vice president as polls and a flutter of late campaign … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged advertising, attack ads, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, MJ Hegar, Ohio, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

NYT/Siena: Trump 47, Biden 43

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Possibly the last poll of interest for the cycle. President Trump maintains a narrow lead in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the state’s once overwhelmingly Republican suburbs but … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

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