Tag Archives: Beto O’Rourke

The “public service” part of being a public servant

Posted on February 20, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

It’s not that hard, though obviously some people make it look easier than others. New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [flew] to Houston [Friday] with more than $2 million to help Texas recover from a week of catastrophic blackouts and water … Continue reading →

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RIP, Rep. Ron Wright

Posted on February 9, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Condolences to his friends and family. U.S. Rep. Ron Wright, an Arlington Republican, has died. His campaign staff announced the news Monday. Wright had lived for years with cancer and was diagnosed with COVID-19 in January. He was 67. “His … Continue reading →

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Who believes in the myth of voter fraud?

Posted on February 7, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Republicans do. Next question. A new University of Houston survey reveals the stark partisan divide among Texans on the issue of voter fraud in the November election. The survey found that 87 percent of Democrats believe there was no widespread … Continue reading →

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That poll about Ted Cruz resigning

Posted on February 4, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

It’s not really that great, to be honest. Former President Trump’s popularity in deep-red Texas is underwater following the mob attack by his supporters of the Capitol, according to a poll from the progressive group Data For Progress commissioned for … Continue reading →

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Castro says he’s not likely to run in 2022

Posted on February 2, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Bummer. Julián Castro — formerly a presidential candidate, secretary of the U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development, and mayor of San Antonio — told KXAN this week that it’s “very unlikely” that he will seek any elected office in … Continue reading →

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Beto for Governor?

Posted on January 29, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

He says he’s thinking about it. Democrat Beto O’Rourke has left no doubt that he’s weighing a run for governor next year. “You know what, it’s something I’m going to think about,” O’Rourke said in an exclusive interview on an … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Other jurisdictions

Posted on December 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial You may be wondering “Hey, how come you haven’t reported on data from SBOE and State Senate districts?” Well, I’ll tell you, since the SBOE … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Commissioners Court and JP/Constable precincts

Posted on December 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts We now zoom in for a look at various county districts, which are also called “precincts”. I don’t know why we have County Commissioner precincts and JP/Constable precincts to go along with regular voting … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State Rep districts

Posted on December 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts We move now to State Rep districts, which is my usual currency since they provide complete coverage of the county with no partial pieces. You can also get a much more nuanced view of how things have … Continue reading →

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Please stop with the straight ticket voting anecdotes

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Either bring me some real data or leave these just so stories alone. Judging from Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Dallas County, Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button should have been doomed this November. Meyer and Button are the only two … Continue reading →

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A closer look at county races, Part 1

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In this series of entries, I’m going to take a trip through the local election results pages on some counties of interest, to get a closer look at how they went this year and how that compares to 2016. We … Continue reading →

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So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

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Looking ahead to 2022

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Continuing with the brain dumps, which are my post-election tradition. This is a collection of thoughts about the next big election, in 2022. As I said earlier, I take no position on the question of what effect the disparity in … Continue reading →

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It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

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A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

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Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

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The role Harris County can play in turning Texas blue

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big county + big turnout = big margin. Texas is not the sort of place national candidates visit just before Election Day or where political ads play on a loop during popular TV shows. And, yet, here we are: Texas … Continue reading →

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A focus on the SCOTX races

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

With so much litigation over a variety of voting issues, the Supreme Court of Texas is in the news a lot these days. Will that mean more attention being paid to the four races for SCOTX positions? The sleepy contests … Continue reading →

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Once again with Asian-American voters

Posted on November 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Long story in the Trib, on a topic that could use more focus. When Debbie Chen temporarily closed her Houston restaurant in March due to the coronavirus, she was worried about her health and her financial livelihood. But as a … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fourteen: Where will we end up?

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Because we like starting with tweets: . Welp. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) 5:58 PM – 25 October 2020 That was from Sunday, after the UT-Tyler poll was factored in. As you may know, there have been two polls released … Continue reading →

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Abbott sloshes some money around the State House races

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Not really a surprise. Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign is ratcheting up its down-ballot efforts in the final weeks before the November election, working to defend the Republican majority in the state House and to remind voters about the importance of … Continue reading →

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The overlooked Congressional race

Posted on October 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There are ten Congressional races involving Republican-held seats that are seen as competitive. Nine of them have gotten a fair amount of attention. The tenth is CD06, and the Texas Signal steps in to fill the gap. The race in … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on October 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll get into a broader discussion in a minute, but for now, there’s this: President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden with the support of 50% of the state’s likely voters to Biden’s 45% in the 2020 race … Continue reading →

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Bexar County poll: Biden 52, Trump 35

Posted on October 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the San Antonio Report: The new Bexar Facts/KSAT/San Antonio Report poll showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a sizable lead over President Donald Trump among registered Bexar County voters. Poll results released Tuesday, two weeks before early voting … Continue reading →

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CD10 poll: McCaul 45, Siegel 43

Posted on September 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

One more Congressional district polled. A new internal poll from the Democratic nominee for Texas’ 10th Congressional District, Mike Siegel, showed the race against Rep. Michael McCaul within just two points. The poll found a narrowing lead for McCaul, who … Continue reading →

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Trib overview of CD24

Posted on September 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The focus of this story is mostly on Democrat Candace Valenzuela, as it should be. She experienced homelessness at a young age. She worked several odd jobs throughout high school and college to make ends meet. A high school car … Continue reading →

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Trib overview of the Senate race

Posted on September 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It really comes down to the top of the ticket. There’s no getting around it. Even before a pandemic struck, protests over racial justice took to the streets and a vacancy opened on the U.S. Supreme Court, this year’s U.S. … Continue reading →

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Don’t expect any surprises in the judicial races

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s a simple reason why the Democratic candidates and incumbents are expected to win all the judicial races in Harris County, as they did in 2016 and 2018. I’ll tell you why in a minute, but see if you can … Continue reading →

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CD03 poll: Taylor 44, Seikaly 43

Posted on September 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn: If there’s any single competitive district you could look at on Election Night to know whether Texas went blue, this might be the pick — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 8:47 AM – 17 September 2020 All we get … Continue reading →

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CD25: Williams 45, Oliver 43

Posted on September 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Congressional polls, they keep coming. Progressive Democratic candidate Julie Oliver is in a close race with her GOP incumbent opponent Rep. Roger Williams, a new internal poll finds. The poll of 400 likely voters by EMC Research shows Oliver … Continue reading →

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CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

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CD21 poll: Davis 48, Roy 47

Posted on September 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Second poll in this district. Between August 31 and September 4, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative sample of 401 likely general election voters in Texas-21st CD. The survey, which was conducted on both landlines and cell phones, was fully representative of … Continue reading →

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Another look at the County Commissioner race

Posted on September 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s the most consequential local race on the ballot this year. Every four years since 1968, Harris County residents have been able to count on a Republican winning the Precinct 3 commissioner’s seat. In that half century, a parade of … Continue reading →

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