Tag Archives: Governor

The Beto-Abbott voters

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading →

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What are your turnout scenarios?

Posted on October 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I keep thinking about this: County Clerk Stan Stanart predicts up to a million Harris County residents could be casting ballots in a string of hotly-contested races. As you’ve heard me say many times, the Democrats’ main issue in off … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Star system

Posted on October 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron has made a change in how it presents its endorsements. The quality of candidates on the ballot varies widely from race to race. At times, both candidates are good choices. At times, there are no good choices to … Continue reading →

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Differing views of likely voters

Posted on September 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

First we had this. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 9 percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Released Tuesday, the survey found Cruz with 54 percent support … Continue reading →

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Signs, signs, everywhere there’s Beto signs

Posted on August 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

And they’re breaking the minds of Ted Cruz supporters. The conversation unfolding before a campaign event for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz here last week echoed similar ones popping up among Republican groups around Texas. With a mixture of frustration and … Continue reading →

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Valdez and Abbott come to terms on September debate

Posted on August 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good. Lupe Valdez, the Democratic candidate for governor, has agreed to debate the Republican incumbent, Greg Abbott, on Sept. 28 in Austin, ending weeks of uncertainty over whether the two would face off. Earlier this summer, Abbott announced his RSVP … Continue reading →

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ECPS: Cruz 38, O’Rourke 37

Posted on August 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Closest result yet, but it comes with a couple of caveats. A new Emerson College e-Poll finds the US Senate race neck and neck with Senator Ted Cruz at 38% and US Rep Beto O’Rourke at 37%; 4% are voting … Continue reading →

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NBC News: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 45

Posted on August 24, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s been three weeks since our last poll result. In a head-to-head match up, Cruz held a 4-point lead over O’Rourke. Forty-nine percent of respondents backed Cruz, compared to 45 percent who supported O’Rourke. Six percent of respondents remain undecided. … Continue reading →

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The meta-campaign for Senate

Posted on August 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s talk about what we talk about when we talk about the Senate campaign. It’s the most backhanded of compliments. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for U.S. Senate has caught so much fire throughout the state that the new favorite … Continue reading →

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The range of Republican anxiety

Posted on August 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Some folks are a little scared about all this “blue wave” talk and poll numbers and what have you. As Ted Cruz took questions at a Republican women’s event [in Smithville] Saturday evening, Bastrop retiree Ronnie Ann Burt wanted to … Continue reading →

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Lyceum: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 39

Posted on August 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good result, though the others with it could be better. A new poll released Wednesday suggests that U.S. Sen Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, are in a dead heat. The poll from Texas Lyceum shows Cruz … Continue reading →

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Debating dates

Posted on July 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We know what the best answer is. What the most likely answer is, I have no idea. The back-and-forth over when and where the two major candidates for Texas governor will debate continued Wednesday, with Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez announcing … Continue reading →

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Two views of Democratic fundraising

Posted on July 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Positive: For the first time in a generation, there is a Democrat running for Congress in every single district in the state. Most of those candidates vying to unseat Republicans will likely lose. Many are running in districts where President … Continue reading →

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Republican reactions to Beto’s fundraising

Posted on July 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The interesting bits of this story: El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke, the underdog challenger to Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, recently burnished his grass-roots credentials by completing a tour of all 254 counties in Texas. Now O’Rourke has proven his fundraising chops as … Continue reading →

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Gravis: Cruz 51, O’Rourke 42

Posted on July 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a new poll of four statewide races in Texas, for which there may or may not be any news coverage. The executive summary: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 602 likely voters across Texas. … Continue reading →

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On enthusiasm and fundraising

Posted on July 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

RG Ratcliffe engages the “can Lupe Valdez be competitive” question. Valdez will almost certainly lose to Greg Abbott in November. Yet if she inspires Hispanic voters to turn out, she could help Democratic candidates in tight down-ballot races and make … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 36, part 2

Posted on June 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We pick up where we left off. Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 41 percent to 36 percent in the general election race for a Texas seat in the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Cruz 41, O’Rourke 36

Posted on June 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Well, what do you know? Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 41 percent to 36 percent in the general election race for a Texas seat in the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Neal … Continue reading →

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We may have reached peak independent candidate

Posted on June 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Meet Jonathan Jenkins, who would apparently like to be on your ballot for the Senate this fall. It’s got a high-tech evangelist for a founder, $6 million in private equity investments, even its own crypto-currency. No, it’s not a driverless … Continue reading →

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Looking back at 2010 and 2014

Posted on June 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve talked a lot about polls in the past week, so I thought I’d take a minute and look back at the polling data that we had as of this time in the 2010 and 2014 elections, to see if … Continue reading →

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Who’s willing to tell Trump he’s all wet?

Posted on June 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Not Greg Abbott or Dan Patrick. During a visit to Pinkerton’s Barbecue on Friday afternoon, gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez said Gov. Greg Abbott failed to forcefully refute the president, who said on Wednesday that some Texans “went out in their … Continue reading →

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No Greens

Posted on June 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Can’t honestly say I’m sorry. When Texans head to the ballot box this November, they’ll be able to vote for Republicans, Democrats or Libertarians. If they want to choose a candidate affiliated with another political group, they might have to … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 39

Posted on May 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Quinnipiac giveth, Quinnipiac taketh away. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has some breathing space from U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, according to a new poll released by Quinnipiac University on Wednesday. In the banner statewide race in the state, the new survey … Continue reading →

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Lupe and Beto

Posted on May 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke has a year-old, well-funded campaign for US Senate. Lupe Valdez doesn’t have anything like those advantages in her campaign for Governor. Will her lower profile effort have a negative effect on his higher profile one? The race for … Continue reading →

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Post-runoff thoughts

Posted on May 24, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I suppose one’s view on Democratic primary runoff turnout is a matter of perspective. I wrote that it was way more than the turnout of any primary going back to 2006 – indeed, more than double the turnout of any … Continue reading →

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2018 primary runoff results: Governor

Posted on May 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the results. Before we begin, some numbers of interest: Year Total =============== 2018 428,933 (inc) 2016 188,592 2014 201,283 2012 236,305 2008 187,708 2006 207,252 There were at least 241,120 early votes cast in 2018 (that number kept … Continue reading →

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We finally have a White/Valdez runoff debate scheduled

Posted on May 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

About time. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez has accepted an invitation to debate her runoff opponent, Andrew White, on May 11 in Austin, according to her campaign. White, who was the runner-up in the March primary, has been pushing to … Continue reading →

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Some people sound very threatened by that Quinnipiac Texas Senate poll

Posted on April 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is almost funny. In its first-ever Texas poll, Quinnipiac University deemed the Senate race “too close to call” in reporting that 47 percent of Texas voters surveyed back Cruz and 44 percent support O’Rourke, an El Paso congressman. The … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Cruz 47, O’Rourke 44

Posted on April 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Pretty good poll result, with the ever-present proviso that it’s just one result. The closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas is too close to call, with 47 percent for Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz and 44 percent for U.S. … Continue reading →

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Valdez and White in the runoff

Posted on April 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The DMN provides a snapshot of where we are in the one Democratic statewide primary runoff. Former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and Houston investor Andrew White have disparate strategies for winning the nomination. Valdez, who finished first with a … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Ana’s army

Posted on March 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Two weeks ago, I noted an email sent out by Rep. Carol Alvarado containing a long list of current and former elected officials as well as other prominent folks who had endorsed her candidacy for SD06, for when Sen. Sylvia … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: One of these things is not like the others

Posted on March 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s finish up our look at the primary precinct data with a peek at the Republican side of things. As a reminder, my analysis of the Democratic Senate primary is here, my analysis of the Governor and Lt. Governor races … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Guv and Lite Guv

Posted on March 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We move now to the Democratic primaries for Governor and Lt. Governor. I did not analyze any of the other Democratic statewide contested primaries, mostly because they were sufficiently low-profile that I didn’t think there was anything of interest to … Continue reading →

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Let’s have some Valdez/White runoff debates

Posted on March 15, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. The Democratic primary runoff for governor ramped up Tuesday with a debate over debates between Lupe Valdez and Andrew White, the two candidates still standing from the nine-way primary a week ago. … Continue reading →

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