Tag Archives: Ted Cruz

The case against Beto (and Julian) for President

Posted on November 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From Chris Hooks: Democrats, taking advantage of the president’s unpopularity, stand a chance of winning control of more state legislatures in 2020 and building the foundations of their party, just as Republicans did in 2010. It’s a great opportunity, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

The decline and fall of the Republican Party in Harris County

Posted on November 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It can be summed up in this table: Dist Romney Trump Cruz =========================== HD126 62.1% 53.0% 51.5% HD127 69.2% 61.2% 59.5% HD128 72.4% 68.2% 66.8% HD129 64.5% 55.3% 54.0% HD130 75.9% 68.1% 66.0% HD132 58.9% 50.0% 47.9% HD133 68.1% 54.5% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Beto does Harris County

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

He won pretty much everywhere you looked. So let’s look at the numbers: Dist Cruz Beto Dike Cruz% Beto% Trump% Clint% ============================================================= CD02 132,390 129,160 2,047 50.22% 49.00% 52.38% 43.05% CD07 112,078 129,781 1,843 45.99% 53.25% 47.11% 48.47% CD08 17,552 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

An in-depth look at the Beto-Cruz race

Posted on November 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good long read from the Trib about the Senate race, which they published after I was well into my county vote analysis. There’s too much to summarize here, but I want to focus on a couple of points. Organizationally, O’Rourke … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

How Ted Cruz barely hung on

Posted on November 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s check some hot takes on what happened in the Senate race. All in all, Beto improved upon Democratic gains in Texas’ 10 most populous counties, long central to their hopes of turning the state purple. But what about the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Texas and Tarrant

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib looks at Beto O’Rourke’s campaign focus on Tarrant County. Fort Worth and its outlying ranches and suburbs are mostly a backwater in Texas politics. Gerrymandered to the hilt, the national parties have mostly ignored this county. But since … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 11: Almost done

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Before we get to the numbers, here’s my new favorite quote of the cycle: “If Ted Cruz had Beto’s campaign manager he’d be leading by 20 points,” said Dan Rogers, the Republican chairman in Potter County, where Cruz drew about … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Early voting, Day 11: Almost done

Emerson College: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 47

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to quit making predictions about when we’ve seen the last poll for this cycle. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) holds a 3-point lead over his Senate challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) ahead of next week’s midterm elections, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Emerson College: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 47

UT-Tyler: Cruz 47.0, O’Rourke 43.4

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Okay, fine, this is the final poll of the cycle. Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

“The least-discussed vulnerable Republican on the ballot”

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From Grits: Grits does not expect Beto O’Rourke to win. But if he were to pull off the upset, many other dominos could fall in succession as a result, with at least three Republican senators, Texas’ Attorney General, and potentially … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Quinnipiac: Cruz 51, O’Rourke 46

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

One last poll for the road. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads El Paso Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 percentage points, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. The poll, released Monday with just a over a week left … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Quinnipiac: Cruz 51, O’Rourke 46

The eSlate issue

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Everyone please take a deep breath. Some straight-ticket voters have reported that voting machines recorded them selecting the candidate of another party for U.S. Senate, exposing a potential problem with the integrity of the state’s high-profile contest between U.S. Sen. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 13 Comments

Omnibus polling update

Posted on October 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

One last Trib poll: Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 51 percent to 45 percent in the Texas race for the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Libertarian Neal Dikeman was the choice of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

The Beto-Abbott voters

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Endorsement watch: Of course it’s Beto

Posted on October 22, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron finally corrects an old and egregious error. With eyes clear but certainly not starry, we enthusiastically endorse Beto O’Rourke for U.S. Senate. The West Texas congressman’s command of issues that matter to this state, his unaffected eloquence and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Trump’s slightly less tiny Ted rally

Posted on October 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s true what they say, size does matter. President Donald Trump’s rally Monday in Houston with U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has been moved to a bigger venue. Originally set to take place at the NRG Arena, the event will now … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , | 5 Comments

What are your turnout scenarios?

Posted on October 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I keep thinking about this: County Clerk Stan Stanart predicts up to a million Harris County residents could be casting ballots in a string of hotly-contested races. As you’ve heard me say many times, the Democrats’ main issue in off … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Trump’s tiny Texas rally for Ted

Posted on October 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Aww, how cute. President Donald Trump will make good on his promise to help Texas Republican Ted Cruz, announcing plans to hold a large rally next Monday night in Houston. The Trump campaign on Monday said the next stop on … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , | 6 Comments

CD31 “live poll” Carter 53, Hegar 38

Posted on October 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Not a great result in CD31, where Democratic challenger MJ Hegar and her fundraising and amazing vidoes have moved this race against Rep. John Carter into lean-Republican territory on multiple forecasters’ lists, with two minor caveats and one addendum. Nate … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CD31 “live poll” Carter 53, Hegar 38

O’Rourke raises $38 million in Q3

Posted on October 13, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

That’s a lot. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, raised $38.1 million for his U.S. Senate campaign in the third quarter, a new record for the largest fundraising quarter ever in a U.S. Senate race, according to his campaign. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Quinnipiac (LV): Cruz 54, O’Rourke 45

Posted on October 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Everyone take a deep breath about the latest Quinnipiac result. Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O’Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. As for each candidate’s images, 52 percent of Texans surveyed had a favorable … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

College students and evangelical women

Posted on October 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Will they really vote for Beto? After church on a recent Sunday, Emily Mooney smiled as she told her girlfriends about her public act of rebellion. She had slapped a “Beto for Senate’’ sticker on her S.U.V. and driven it … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on College students and evangelical women

CBS-YouGov: Cruz 50, O’Rourke 44 (LV)

Posted on October 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I expect we’ll see a bunch more polls in the next few days. The battle for Senate control finds Democrats trying to mount upset challenges in a string of typically Republican states, and this round of Battleground Tracker polls shows … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Why FiveThirtyEight really believes Beto has a chance

Posted on October 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Nate Silver explains the reasoning behind the numbers. When building a statistical model, you ideally want to find yourself surprised by the data some of the time — just not too often. If you never come up with a result that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , | 16 Comments

What about Neal?

Posted on September 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey reminds us there is a third person in the Texas Senate race. Libertarians and other third-party candidates have never won state elections in Texas and rarely make a meaningful difference in election results, with one big exception: As … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on What about Neal?

Two from PPP (RV): Cruz 48, O’Rourke 45, and Cruz 49, O’Rourke 46

Posted on September 22, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Fourth in a series from PPP. A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey commissioned by Protect Our Care finds that 62 percent of voters in Texas say health care will be one of the most important issues they consider when … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 17 Comments

Differing views of likely voters

Posted on September 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

First we had this. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leads his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 9 percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Released Tuesday, the survey found Cruz with 54 percent support … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Crosswinds: Cruz 47, O’Rourke 44

Posted on September 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s poll time again. In a sign of just how crucial the millennial vote might be in the upcoming mid-term elections, a statewide poll released Tuesday shows Ted Cruz leading 47 percent to Beto O’Rourke’s 44 percent among likely Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Crosswinds: Cruz 47, O’Rourke 44

Yes, Republicans really are worried about Ted Cruz

Posted on September 13, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Their actions speak volumes. With a string of polls showing GOP Sen. Ted Cruz’s lead slipping, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick showed up in Washington on July 25 to deliver an urgent plea to White House officials: Send President Donald … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

On negative ads and name recognition

Posted on September 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I confess, I’m amused by this. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is going after Democrat Beto O’Rourke for cursing during some of his campaign speeches. The Cruz campaign released a digital ad on social media that shows O’Rourke cursing at various … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , | 24 Comments

No, really, nobody likes Ted Cruz

Posted on September 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Womp, womp. President Donald Trump’s budget chief said Saturday that Republican U.S. Sen Ted Cruz could lose his seat in the November elections, suggesting that he is not likable enough, The New York Times reported. According to the Times report, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , | 20 Comments

How can Beto win?

Posted on September 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is from the weekly newsletter put out by G. Elliott Morris: Let’s talk about voter turnout in Texas. The statewide voting-agedpopulation is a mixed bag, made up of 45% White, 37% Hispanic, 11% Black, and 6% Asian/other residents, according to projections from the Center … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 18 Comments