Tag Archives: Election 2012

The decline and fall of the Republican Party in Harris County

Posted on November 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It can be summed up in this table: Dist Romney Trump Cruz =========================== HD126 62.1% 53.0% 51.5% HD127 69.2% 61.2% 59.5% HD128 72.4% 68.2% 66.8% HD129 64.5% 55.3% 54.0% HD130 75.9% 68.1% 66.0% HD132 58.9% 50.0% 47.9% HD133 68.1% 54.5% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Republican Party, Senate, straight ticket voting, Ted Cruz, turnout | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, James Cargas, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Ted Poe, Texas, Todd Litton, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

How Ted Cruz barely hung on

Posted on November 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s check some hot takes on what happened in the Senate race. All in all, Beto improved upon Democratic gains in Texas’ 10 most populous counties, long central to their hopes of turning the state purple. But what about the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2012, Election 2018, Paul Sadler, precinct analysis, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 10 Comments

Initial reactions: Statewide

Posted on November 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m going to do a few of these “Initial reaction” posts about Tuesday’s elections as I try to make sense of all that happened. Here we go. Let me start with a number. Two numbers, actually: 4,017,851 and 48.26%. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, Joi Chevalier, Justin Nelson, Kathy Cheng, Kim Olson, Land Commissioner, Lite Gov, Lupe Valdez, Maria Jackson, Miguel Suazo, Mike Collier, Railroad Commission, Ramona Franklin, RK Sandill, Roman McAllen, Senate, Steven Kirkland, Supreme Court, Texas, turnout | 8 Comments

Today is election day

Posted on November 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s what we’ve been waiting for, for what seems like forever. From the inbox: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 is Election Day. Voting locations will be open from 7 am to 7 pm. Voters may visit www.HarrisVotes.com, the County Clerk’s election … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election Day, Harris County, HFD, Houston, HPFFA, lawsuit, Sylvester Turner, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

The trend in mail ballots

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wanted to take a closer look at the not-in-person aspect of early voting: Year Mailed Returned Return% Dem % ========================================= 2008 76,187 68,612 90.06% 36.60% 2010 69,991 55,560 79.38% 30.82% 2012 92,290 76,085 82.44% 41.79% 2014 89,073 71,994 80.83% 48.94% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 23 Comments

Projecting Tuesday turnout

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the statewide view. By the time the polls closed Thursday, 33.7 percent of registered voters in Bexar County had voted, well past the 17.3 percent turnout at the same point in 2014, the last midterm, and close to the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Bexar County, Collin County, Denton County, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, judicial races, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 1 Comment

The Courts of Appeals

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The other judicial races where Dems have a chance to gain ground. Republicans dominate Texas politics — but their stranglehold is especially noticeable in the courts. Republicans hold all 18 seats on the state’s two high courts. Of the state’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged 13th Court of Appeals, 14th Court of Appeals, 4th Court of Appeals, 5th Court of Appeals, Brazoria County, Dallas County, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, judicial races, Texas, Third Court of Appeals, Travis County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 12: Final curtain

Posted on November 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It was apparently a late night with long lines, and the report didn’t arrive by 10 PM, so you’ll have to settle for this. When the polls closed in Harris County Friday, more voters had cast ballots than in any … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 5 Comments

Early voting, Day 11: Almost done

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Before we get to the numbers, here’s my new favorite quote of the cycle: “If Ted Cruz had Beto’s campaign manager he’d be leading by 20 points,” said Dan Rogers, the Republican chairman in Potter County, where Cruz drew about … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

Early voting, Day 10: Happy Halloween

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Wednesday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 9: Who are these people?

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The question keeps getting asked, who is it that has been voting so far? An unprecedented number of Texans cast their ballots during the first week of early voting, but it is impossible to predict whether that surge will benefit … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Dallas County, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 9 Comments

Early voting, Day 8: On to Week 2

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Monday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 5 Comments

Day 7 early voting: Let the hot takes begin

Posted on October 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to quote this bit from this story about how the Senate campaigns are interpreting the early vote turnout so far. Derek Ryan, a GOP data consultant who previously worked for the state party, said there are a … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 4 Comments

Day 6 early voting: A very early stab at projecting turnout

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is the point in the early voting process where early voting hours expand, and as a result daily EV reports come in later. That may affect my ability to present the latest data each day, so I’m going to … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting Day 5: It’s been a long week (in a good way)

Posted on October 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Did I mention it’s been busy? Voters across the state have come out in massive numbers during the first five days of early voting, and soon, more Texans will have voted early in 2018 than in all of 2014’s early … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Cameron County, Dallas County, early voting, El Paso, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Day 4 early voting: A brief look around the state

Posted on October 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib has it all organized for you. As of day three of early voting, 1,344,741 Texans have cast in-person ballots and 240,601 cast mail-in ballots in the 30 counties where most registered voters in the state — 78 percent … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 9 Comments

Day 3 early voting: In shorter hours

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve heard a few people complain about the shorter early voting hours in the first week. For the first five days for early voting, Harris County’s 46 polling locations open at 8 a.m. and close at 4:30 p.m., the earliest … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 15 Comments

Day 1 early voting totals: Like three days in one

Posted on October 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Monday was busy. Harris County residents on Monday set a new record for the first day of early voting in a midterm election, as 63,188 went to the polls to cast ballots. The turnout smashed the previous mark, set in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 7 Comments

Endorsement watch: Of course it’s Beto

Posted on October 22, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron finally corrects an old and egregious error. With eyes clear but certainly not starry, we enthusiastically endorse Beto O’Rourke for U.S. Senate. The West Texas congressman’s command of issues that matter to this state, his unaffected eloquence and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2012, Election 2018, endorsements, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | 2 Comments

Sarah Davis’ balancing act

Posted on September 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

As it will be for many of her Republican colleagues, especially in Harris County, 2018 is a challenging year for Rep. Sarah Davis. To understand how Republican state Rep. Sarah Davis plans to survive a possible Democratic blue wave in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Allison Sawyer, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellen Cohen, Greg Abbott, HD134, redistricting, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

What about Neal?

Posted on September 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey reminds us there is a third person in the Texas Senate race. Libertarians and other third-party candidates have never won state elections in Texas and rarely make a meaningful difference in election results, with one big exception: As … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2002, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2018, Neil Dikeman, polls, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | Comments Off

Lots more voters registered statewide

Posted on September 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Always good to hear. The Texas voter rolls have grown to 15.6 million people, a new record, Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos confirmed. That is nearly a 400,000-person increase since March and a jump of 1.6 million since the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Battleground Texas, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Secretary of State, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 2 Comments

Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

Posted on September 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD02, CD07, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Pete Sessions, Texas | Comments Off

CD23 “live poll”: Hurd 51, Ortiz Jones 43

Posted on September 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Give this one a bit of side-eye. Incumbent Republican Will Hurd is leading his Democratic challenger, Gina Ortiz Jones, in one of the country’s most competitive races in this year’s midterm elections, according to a new poll by The New … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD23, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Gina Ortiz Jones, Pete Gallego, polls, Quico Canseco, Texas, Will Hurd | 3 Comments

Early voting has begun for SD19 special election runoff

Posted on September 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Don’t lose sight of this election. A strong yet unsuccessful showing in 2016 against incumbent Carlos Uresti was enough to convince Pete Flores to take another shot at Uresti’s State Senate seat, this time in a special election to complete … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Pete Flores, Pete Gallego, runoff, SD19, Senate, special election, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

Harris County 2018 voter registration numbers

Posted on September 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Thank you Harris County Voter Registration Division and Harris County Volunteer Deputy Voter Registrars for your passion, dedication, and commitment in registering eligible voters! Current number registered: 2,291,037 Voters registered in 2017: 67,753 Voters registered in 2018: … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ann Harris Bennett, Election 2002, Election 2004, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Harris County Tax Assessor, Mike Sullivan, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

Posted on July 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged campaign finance reports, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD12, CD14, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD31, CD32, CD36, Congress, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, fundraising, Texas | Comments Off

Post-runoff thoughts

Posted on May 24, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I suppose one’s view on Democratic primary runoff turnout is a matter of perspective. I wrote that it was way more than the turnout of any primary going back to 2006 – indeed, more than double the turnout of any … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ann Richards, Democratic primary, Election 1990, Election 2002, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Jim Mattox, Lupe Valdez, President, Railroad Commission, runoff, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

2018 Runoff EV report: Primary runoff turnout totals don’t much matter

Posted on May 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Hey, have you been wondering how early voting has gone in the primary runoffs so far? Well, wonder no more, for here is the daily report through Wednesday. You have today and tomorrow to vote early, and then you’ll need … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Democratic primary, early voting, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, primaries, runoff, turnout | 1 Comment

Some people sound very threatened by that Quinnipiac Texas Senate poll

Posted on April 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is almost funny. In its first-ever Texas poll, Quinnipiac University deemed the Senate race “too close to call” in reporting that 47 percent of Texas voters surveyed back Cruz and 44 percent support O’Rourke, an El Paso congressman. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Bill White, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Hillary Clinton, polls, President, Senate, Texas, Wendy Davis | 7 Comments

It’s going to be redistricting time for Texas at SCOTUS soon

Posted on April 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s an update. In their latest brief to the U.S. Supreme Court, the voting and minority rights groups challenging Texas’ political maps painted Republican state lawmakers as “opportunistically inconsistent in their treatment of appearance versus reality.” Pointing to the lawmakers’ … Continue reading →

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged Congress, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, lawsuit, redistricting, SCOTUS, Texas, The Lege, Voting Rights Act | 1 Comment

The Stockman trial gets weird

Posted on March 24, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I mean, with Steve Stockman you have to expect some weird crap, but I didn’t see this coming. The American Phoenix Foundation — a now-defunct conservative activist groupknown for attempting undercover stings of lawmakers and lobbyists — planted an intern in … Continue reading →

Posted in Crime and Punishment, Scandalized! | Tagged American Phoenix Foundation, CD36, Congress, Election 2012, ethics, FBI, James O'Keefe, James White, primaries, Steve Stockman, Texas | Comments Off

Stockman trial update

Posted on March 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From Tuesday: “This case is the story of how the defendant over the course of four years exploited the trust and charity of others to pull off a massive scam,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Robert Heberle, of the Justice Department’s public … Continue reading →

Posted in Crime and Punishment, Scandalized! | Tagged Congress, Election 1994, Election 2012, Election 2014, ethics, FBI, FEC, Jason Posey, Steve Stockman, Texas | Comments Off

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