Barring judicial action that I have said I don’t expect, the new Congressional map will be in place for the 2026 election. That means that a lot of people who are not now in Congress will be gearing up to make a run for it, while several current members of Congress will face a decision about whether to run in a new district against a colleague or not run at all. The Downballot rounds up what we know now. I’m going to focus on one district, but there’s a lot more than this:
TX-18
Democratic Rep. Al Green, who turns 78 next week, has said he’ll run for office again, though as noted just above, Texas’ overhauled 9th District shares no more than a number with the constituency he currently serves.
Earlier this month, though, Green showed interest in running for the redrawn 18th District, which is now home to almost two-thirds of the congressman’s constituents and remains a safely Democratic seat based in Houston.
Such a move would set off a confrontation between Green and a fellow Democratic incumbent—but he won’t know which one until the end of the year.
That’s because a whole host of Democrats are facing off in the Nov. 4 all-party special election in the 18th to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died in March at the age of 70 following a cancer diagnosis.
A December runoff, which could feature two contenders from the same party, would take place unless one candidate wins a majority in the first round, a tall order in a field this crowded. The few polls we’ve seen find a trio of Democrats in contention to advance to the second round: former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, state Rep. Jolanda Jones, and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee
While the special election for the 18th will take place under the map passed in 2021, the winner would have to quickly get ready for the March 3 Democratic primary under the new boundaries.
Whoever wins the old 18th will represent just over a quarter of the residents of the new district bearing that same number. That alone would put the winner at a significant geographical disadvantage against Green. All the major candidates running to replace Turner, though, are significantly younger than Green, which could make a meaningful difference at a time when older Democrats nationwide are facing widespread pressure to step aside.
There’s a bunch more about other districts and who may be or may not be running for what, all of which is already a little outdated as more names have surfaced. A lot of terrible people are looking to run for Congress now, and I don’t have the energy to list them at this time. There’s always the next quarterly finance report for that.
I’m going to say something here that will sound obvious but still needs to be said. This effort wasn’t just about electing more Republicans, it was also about taking seats away from Democrats, which among other things will cause some of them to fight against each other for the right to stay in Congress. Having competitive primaries is a healthy sign when it’s about competition and presenting alternate views and holding incumbents accountable. Having them foisted on you because nearly half of your existing turf was removed is not. All that does is foster nasty infighting, which I guarantee you was part of the plan from the beginning. We’ve avoided one such fight but others are out there, if not now then later. And it will suck.
The best way to fight back is to refuse to concede anything. The Republican gains are predicated on a bet, one that very well may not come true. If it doesn’t, seats like CD09 and CD35, which currently only have Republicans announcing for them, could be winnable. Now is the time to find candidates for them, and once we do now is the time to organize and fundraise for them. The longer we wait, the harder it gets.
It’s easy to feel down after the high of the quorum busting and the reality of the map passing. Republicans are taking a victory lap. Now is the time to tap into the anger you’re feeling and turn it into action. The best revenge for all of this is for the Republicans to fall well short of their goal. What are you going to do to make that happen?