Welcome to At Large #2, the second of three At Large races in which an incumbent is in the runoff.
Dist DavidR Davis Griff DeToto Honey
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A 4,570 3,995 1,643 3,575 809
B 5,779 5,416 958 1,921 391
C 16,691 6,446 3,568 7,649 1,551
D 8,588 7,122 1,634 3,300 621
E 7,221 7,447 2,335 4,077 1,700
F 2,947 2,422 853 2,061 503
G 9,561 9,072 3,057 4,983 1,399
H 4,558 2,048 1,018 4,657 595
I 3,207 1,900 822 3,892 425
J 2,164 1,600 622 1,462 352
K 7,089 4,668 1,381 2,971 617
A 31.32% 27.38% 11.26% 24.50% 5.54%
B 39.95% 37.44% 6.62% 13.28% 2.70%
C 46.49% 17.95% 9.94% 21.30% 4.32%
D 40.39% 33.49% 7.68% 15.52% 2.92%
E 31.70% 32.69% 10.25% 17.90% 7.46%
F 33.54% 27.57% 9.71% 23.46% 5.73%
G 34.06% 32.32% 10.89% 17.75% 4.98%
H 35.40% 15.91% 7.91% 36.17% 4.62%
I 31.30% 18.54% 8.02% 37.99% 4.15%
J 34.90% 25.81% 10.03% 23.58% 5.68%
K 42.38% 27.91% 8.26% 17.76% 3.69%
Here’s the 2015 precinct analysis for comparison. Incumbent David Robinson had about a 20K vote and ten percentage point lead over Willie Davis in both years, though his own percentage of the vote increased from 32 to 38. Robinson arguably had a tougher field in 2015, with Eric Dick and Andrew Burks also on the ballot. Dick did better in the Republican districts than Davis did, and Burks did better in Districts B and D, but Davis was still able to come in second. But as in 2015, Robinson was better than Davis nearly everywhere – Davis nipped him only in District E this year – and as such it’s hard to see Davis’ path to victory. Robinson has a big cash advantage, and he’s the Democrat in this race. Mike Knox may lose. David Robinson is highly unlikely to lose.
By the way, despite his lukewarm showing in November of 2015, Robinson scored a solid nine-point win in the runoff. It might be a more interesting race if there were no corresponding Mayoral race, but given that there is I expect Robinson to cruise.
Is this the end of Griff as a factor in these multi-candidate races? He failed to crack ten percent, which is weaker than I’d have expected. He got almost 13 percent in 2015, and actually finished third in the At Large #1 pileup. We were four thousand votes away from a Mike Knox-Griff Griffin runoff. I get a little dizzy every time I think about that.
More to come. Let me know what you think.
Low information voters will most likely vote for skin color. I’m sorry that W.R.D. has some history with democrats, but I think he has evolved.
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