Tag Archives: CD32

April 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on April 29, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

It’s April, and that means it’s time once again to review campaign finance reports for Congressional candidates. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle; these reports are the first ones for the 2019-20 cycle. A … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged campaign finance reports, Candace Valenzuela, Carol Ianuzzi, CD02, CD03, CD07, CD10, CD20, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elisa Cardnell, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Jan McDowell, Joaquin Castro, Julie Oliver, Kim Olson, Liz Wahl, Lizzie FLetcher, Lorie Burch, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Pritash Gandhi, Senate, Texas, Todd Litton | Comments Off

One more for CD24

Posted on April 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Another contested primary. Democrat Candace Valenzuela, a 34-year-old Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board member, is launching a campaign Monday against Texas GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant, one of the party’s top targets in 2020. She will face an uphill battle for her … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Alex Triantaphyllis, Candace Valenzuela, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Democratic primary, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elisa Cardnell, Gina Ortiz Jones, Jan McDowell, Jason Westin, Joe Kopser, Kim Olson, Laura Moser, Lizzie FLetcher, MJ Hegar, Sri Kulkarni, Texas, Todd Litton, Wendy Davis, Will Fisher | 1 Comment

Using Beto 2018 to project Beto 2020

Posted on April 15, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The NYT recently took a deep dive into the 2018 election data from Texas, and came out seeing a real swing state, partly because of Beto and partly for other reasons. Mr. O’Rourke’s close result wasn’t because of an exceptional … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD07, CD32, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Julian Castro, polls, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

Here comes the DCCC

Posted on April 14, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

National Dems really are serious about competing in Texas next year. National Democrats are ratcheting up their Texas offensive yet again ahead of 2020. The chairwoman of U.S. House Democratic campaign arm announced Tuesday morning that her committee will open … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD31, CD32, Cheri Bustos, Colin Allred, Congress, DCCC, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, John Cornyn, Lizzie FLetcher, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: 2018 Congress

Posted on March 20, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD12, CD14, CD15, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD28, CD31, CD32, CD34, CD36, Colin Allred, Congress, Dayna Steele, DCCC, Democratic primary, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Joe Kopser, Justin Nelson, Kim Olson, Lizzie FLetcher, Lupe Valdez, Mike Collier, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, Roman McAllen, Texas, Will Hurd | 4 Comments

Just a reminder, Will Hurd is still a Republican

Posted on March 19, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

That means he does Republican things. Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd said he would vote for Donald Trump in 2020 over his friend, former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, should he decide to run and win the Democratic Party’s nomination. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018, Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD31, CD32, Chip Roy, Colin Allred, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Ortiz Jones, Jan McDowell, John Carter, John Culberson, Kenny Marchant, Lizzie FLetcher, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, Will Hurd | 2 Comments

January 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on March 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

We come to the last of our January finance report roundups. The next one will be in April, for Congressional candidates, which will be our first indicator of who among the repeaters and the newcomers has gotten off to a … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged campaign finance reports, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD12, CD14, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD31, CD32, CD36, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Jan McDowell, Jana Sanchez, Joe Kopser, Julie Oliver, Lizzie FLetcher, Lorie Burch, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Sri Kulkarni, Texas, Todd Litton | 2 Comments

More looking forward to 2020

Posted on February 17, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Gonna have some more of that sweet Congressional election action. Smelling blood after picking up two Texas congressional seats in November – along with Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss in the U.S. Senate race – House Democrats [recently] announced six new … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD31, CD32, Chip Roy, Colin Allred, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, John Carter, John Cornyn, Kenny Marchant, Lizzie FLetcher, Mike McCaul, Pete Olson, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, Will Hurd | 14 Comments

There sure was a lot of money spent on Congressional races in Texas

Posted on February 3, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

If we’re lucky, it will be the start of a trend. Never has Texas seen as much money spent on Congressional campaigns as it did in 2018. New campaign finance data shows that the state didn’t just beat its old … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Adrienne Bell, campaign finance reports, CD02, CD07, CD12, CD14, CD23, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD32, CD36, Colin Allred, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Dayna Steele, Election 2004, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Holguin, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, John Culberson, Julie Oliver, Kathaleen Wall, Linsey Fagan, Lizzie FLetcher, Pete Sessions, redistricting, Texas, Todd Litton, Tom DeLay, Vanessa Adia, Will Hurd | Comments Off

2020 is starting early

Posted on January 10, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Example One: The calendar just turned to 2019, but the 2020 race for Congressional seats in Texas is already on. A few days after Christmas, San Antonio resident Liz Wahl, 33, a former cable television news anchor, filed papers in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD02, CD23, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Democratic primary, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elisa Cardnell, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Liz Wahl, Nancy Pelosi, NRCC, Texas, Todd Litton, Will Hurd | 2 Comments

More Congressional retirement speculation

Posted on December 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From Roll Call: Life in the minority will be a new experience for most House Republicans next year. And many of them may not remember what happened the last time the GOP lost the House. After the 2006 Democratic wave, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Congress, Election 2018, Election 2020, Kenny Marchant, Pete Olson, Texas | 2 Comments

Pete Sessions’ fine whine

Posted on December 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

There ain’t enough cheese in the entire state of Wisconsin to accompany this. Rep. Pete Sessions’ campaign might be over. But he isn’t over it. The Dallas Republican is still smoldering about the circumstances that led to his decisive loss … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018, General snarkiness | Tagged CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, Election 2020, Pete Sessions, Texas | 1 Comment

The next round of redistricting is going to be even more fun

Posted on December 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Close races do complicate things. Texas Republicans collected half of the votes statewide in congressional races this month. But even after Democrats flipped two districts, toppling GOP veterans in Dallas and Houston, Republicans will control 23 of the state’s 36 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD23, CD24, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, Election 2020, John Carter, John Culberson, Kenny Marchant, Legislative Redistricting Board, Lizzie FLetcher, Mike McCaul, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Pete Sessions, redistricting, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege | 5 Comments

Initial thoughts: Congress

Posted on November 15, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll be honest: I never felt particularly confident about winning CD07 or CD32. Not because Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred weren’t excellent candidates, or anything to do with the trends of the national environment or what have you. I just … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Ortiz Jones, Hillary Clinton, Jan McDowell, Lizzie FLetcher, redistricting, Texas, turnout, Will Hurd | 6 Comments

Omnibus election report

Posted on November 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged 13th Court of Appeals, 14th Court of Appeals, 4th Court of Appeals, 5th Court of Appeals, Adrian Garcia, Ana-Maria Ramos, Beto O'Rourke, Beverly Powell, Brian Middleton, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Commissioners Court, Congress, Dallas County, Denton County, District Attorney, Ed Emmett, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Erin Zwiener, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Gina Ortiz Jones, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Hays County, HD102, HD105, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD135, HD136, HD45, HD47, HD52, HD65, Houston, Jack Morman, James Talarico, Jan McDowell, Jana Sanchez, Joe Kopser, John Bucy, John Turner, Jon Rosenthal, judicial races, Julie Johnson, Julie Oliver, Lina Hidalgo, Lizzie FLetcher, Lorie Burch, Michelle Beckley, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Nathan Johnson, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, SD10, SD16, Senate, Sri Kulkarni, Terry Meza, Texas, The Lege, Third Court of Appeals, Todd Litton, turnout, Vikki Goodwin, Williamson County | 13 Comments

Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD07, CD23, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, Gina Ortiz Jones, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Pete Sessions, polls, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, Will Hurd | 1 Comment

The Beto-Abbott voters

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bill White, CD07, CD32, Congress, David Dewhurst, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, Lupe Valdez, polls, President, Rick Perry, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 5 Comments

October 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on October 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wow. It’s not just Beto. Newly filed campaign finance reports show that money flooded into Democratic congressional campaigns all across the state over the last three months. Along with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s blockbuster $38 million haul in his bid against … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Adrienne Bell, campaign finance reports, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD12, CD14, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD31, CD32, CD36, Colin Allred, Congress, Dayna Steele, Election 2018, Eric Holguin, fundraising, Jan McDowell, Jana Sanchez, Joe Kopser, Julie Oliver, Linsey Fagan, Lizzie FLetcher, Lorie Burch, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Rick Kennedy, Sri Kulkarni, Steven David, Texas, Todd Litton, Vanessa Adia | Comments Off

Endorsement watch: Nine from Obama

Posted on October 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t know what the practical effect of this is, but I’m happy for the attention. Former President Barack Obama has backed nine more Democratic candidates in Texas as part of his second round of midterm endorsements. The nine candidates … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Adrienne Bell, Ana-Maria Ramos, Barack Obama, CD07, CD14, CD16, CD23, CD29, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, endorsements, Eric Johnson, Gina Ortiz Jones, HD100, HD102, HD105, HD113, HD115, Julie Johnson, Lizzie FLetcher, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, Sylvia Garcia, Terry Meza, Texas, The Lege, Veronica Escobar | 1 Comment

CD32 “live poll”: Sessions 48, Allred 47

Posted on September 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Another on of these polls, another close result. Incumbent Republican Pete Sessions and Democratic challenger Colin Allred are in a dead heat in the much-anticipated race for Dallas County’s 32nd Congressional District. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD07, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2018, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Pete Sessions, polls, Texas | 1 Comment

Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

Posted on September 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD02, CD07, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Pete Sessions, Texas | Comments Off

CD07 “live poll”: Culberson 48, Fletcher 45

Posted on September 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s another of those NYT-Siena “live polls” of interesting Congressional races. Houston Rep. John Culberson holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher, a poll conducted by The New York Times Upshot found Tuesday. Culberson’s 3-point lead is within … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD07, CD23, CD32, Congress, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Gina Ortiz Jones, Harris County, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, polls, precinct data, Senate, Texas, Will Hurd | 3 Comments

Crosstab versus 538

Posted on August 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are familiar with the Congressional race projections from G. Elliott Morris at The Crosstab, which I’ve noted here and here. He uses a probabilistic model for each district. Which as it happens is also the approach taken by FiveThirtyEight … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD02, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD31, CD32, Congress, Election 2018, polls, Texas | 1 Comment

CD32 poll: Sessions 47, Allred 45

Posted on August 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Another internal poll, another close race. Texas Rep. Pete Sessions’ re-election race is looking increasingly competitive, with Democrat Colin Allred polling close to the longtime Republican lawmaker, according to a new internal Democratic survey. The Dallas-area 32nd District is traditionally … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, Pete Sessions, polls, Texas | 2 Comments

Trump’s Texas beneficiaries

Posted on August 15, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Interesting. Six Texas Republican in Congress received a show of financial support from their party’s leader this week. President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign announced Thursday that it was donating the maximum contribution possible to around 100 House and Senate Republican … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD07, CD11, CD23, CD26, CD27, CD31, CD32, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2018, fundraising, John Carter, John Culberson, Michael Burgess, Michael Cloud, Mike Conaway, Pete Sessions, Texas, Will Hurd | 1 Comment

The meta-campaign for Senate

Posted on August 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s talk about what we talk about when we talk about the Senate campaign. It’s the most backhanded of compliments. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for U.S. Senate has caught so much fire throughout the state that the new favorite … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Brazoria County, CD07, CD21, CD23, CD31, CD32, Collin County, Congress, Dan Patrick, Denton County, Election 2018, Fort Bend County, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HD115, HD135, HD136, judicial races, Justin Nelson, Ken Paxton, Kim Olson, Lite Gov, Lupe Valdez, Mike Collier, Senate, Sid Miller, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, Williamson County | 1 Comment

Stalking Sessions

Posted on August 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It sure would be sweet to beat Pete. The man who engineered the 2010 Republican takeover of the House is racing to save himself in his own election this year — and he admits, in so many words, that President … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2004, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2018, fundraising, Grier Raggio, Martin Frost, Pete Sessions, redistricting, Texas | Comments Off

Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

Posted on July 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged campaign finance reports, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD12, CD14, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD31, CD32, CD36, Congress, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, fundraising, Texas | Comments Off

July 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on July 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

So we know that Texas Democratic Congressional challengers really crushed it in Q2, and that’s on top of three strong quarters before that. How good was it? Let’s quantify. Here are the July 2017 finance reports, here are the October … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Adrienne Bell, campaign finance reports, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD12, CD14, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD27, CD31, CD32, CD36, Colin Allred, Congress, Dayna Steele, Election 2018, Eric Holguin, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Jan McDowell, Jana Sanchez, Joe Kopser, Julie Oliver, Linsey Fagan, Lizzie FLetcher, Lori Burch, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, Rick Kennedy, Sri Kulkarni, Steven David, Texas, Todd Litton, Vanessa Adia | 1 Comment

Dems keep posting very strong finance reports

Posted on July 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wow. There are few bigger warning signs for a member of Congress that their re-election may be in doubt than when a challenger outraises them. In Texas, it just happened to seven incumbents, all Republicans. Since last week, when U.S. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, campaign finance reports, CD02, CD06, CD07, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD25, CD31, CD32, CD36, Chip Roy, Colin Allred, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Dan Patrick, Election 2018, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Greg Abbott, Jana Sanchez, Joe Kopser, John Carter, John Culberson, Julie Oliver, Lamar Smith, Lizzie FLetcher, MJ Hegar, Pete Olson, Pete Sessions, Roger Williams, Senate, Sri Kulkarni, Ted Cruz, Texas, Todd Litton, Will Hurd | 3 Comments

Monday “day before reports start showing up” campaign finance roundup

Posted on July 16, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Good things keep happening to MJ Hegar. EMILY’s List, a powerful organization that backs female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights, is putting its support behind Hegar, an Air Force veteran who has shot to national prominence in recent weeks … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged campaign finance reports, CD31, CD32, CD36, Colin Allred, Congress, Dayna Steele, Election 2018, fundraising, MJ Hegar, Pete Sessions, Texas | 1 Comment

We are going to get some Congressional polling soon

Posted on July 13, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Nate Cohn on Twitter: Well we’ve been working pretty hard over here in Upshot land for the last few months, but I think we’ll have at least one thing to show for it fairly soon: results from a test of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD07, CD23, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, Gina Ortiz Jones, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Pete Sessions, polls, Texas, Will Hurd | 1 Comment

What the prognosticators are saying about Texas

Posted on July 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve covered some of this before, but with Daily Kos releasing their initial House race rankings, let’s see how the national prognosticators are classifying Texas Congressional races. Daily Kos Elections Tossup – CD23 Lean R – CD07, CD32 Likely R … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged CD02, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Congress, Election 2018, Texas | 2 Comments

Three more Dems top $1 million in Q2

Posted on July 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

In the morning there was Gina Ortiz Jones. Gina Ortiz Jones, the Democrat running against U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, raised more than $1.2 million over the last three months, a huge haul that far outpaces the fundraising by her … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged campaign finance reports, CD07, CD23, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2018, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, John Carter, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, MJ Hegar, Pete Sessions, Texas, Will Hurd | 3 Comments

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