Tag Archives: CD23

The meta-campaign for Senate

Let’s talk about what we talk about when we talk about the Senate campaign. It’s the most backhanded of compliments. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for U.S. Senate has caught so much fire throughout the state that the new favorite … Continue reading

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Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading

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July 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

So we know that Texas Democratic Congressional challengers really crushed it in Q2, and that’s on top of three strong quarters before that. How good was it? Let’s quantify. Here are the July 2017 finance reports, here are the October … Continue reading

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Dems keep posting very strong finance reports

Wow. There are few bigger warning signs for a member of Congress that their re-election may be in doubt than when a challenger outraises them. In Texas, it just happened to seven incumbents, all Republicans. Since last week, when U.S. … Continue reading

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We are going to get some Congressional polling soon

Nate Cohn on Twitter: Well we’ve been working pretty hard over here in Upshot land for the last few months, but I think we’ll have at least one thing to show for it fairly soon: results from a test of … Continue reading

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What the prognosticators are saying about Texas

I’ve covered some of this before, but with Daily Kos releasing their initial House race rankings, let’s see how the national prognosticators are classifying Texas Congressional races. Daily Kos Elections Tossup – CD23 Lean R – CD07, CD32 Likely R … Continue reading

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Three more Dems top $1 million in Q2

In the morning there was Gina Ortiz Jones. Gina Ortiz Jones, the Democrat running against U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, raised more than $1.2 million over the last three months, a huge haul that far outpaces the fundraising by her … Continue reading

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On enthusiasm and fundraising

RG Ratcliffe engages the “can Lupe Valdez be competitive” question. Valdez will almost certainly lose to Greg Abbott in November. Yet if she inspires Hispanic voters to turn out, she could help Democratic candidates in tight down-ballot races and make … Continue reading

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SCOTUS upholds Texas redistricting

Screw this. Extinguishing the possibility that Texas could be placed back under federal electoral supervision, the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday pushed aside claims that lawmakers intentionally discriminated against voters of color when they enacted the state’s congressional and state … Continue reading

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Checking in on the Congressional forecast

Now that our November lineups are finalized, I thought I’d check in once again on the 2018 Congressional race forecast, from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab. I last wrote about this in December, at a time when the generic … Continue reading

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The Republicans’ risk factors in 2018

The Cook Report’s Dave Wasserman comes up with a system for evaluating Republican Congressional incumbents who may have some trouble in their future. Armed with fresh FEC data, we have created a table listing seven “risk factors” to gauge Republican … Continue reading

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2018 primary runoff results: Congress and Legislature

All results are here. I began drafting this around 9:30 when there were still a bunch of precincts out, but with the exception of the tossup in CD25, all of the Congressional races were pretty clear by then: CD03: Lorie … Continue reading

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Runoff races, part 1: Congress

I looked at most of these races after the filing deadline here and here. Here’s a reminder about who’s still in. CD03 Lorie Burch – Finance report Sam Johnson – Finance report First round: Burch 49.61%, Johnson 28.68% Burch was … Continue reading

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A primary runoff threefer

It’s getting chippy in CD02. What started off as a relatively cordial campaign between two Republicans who want to represent parts of Houston in Congress has gotten downright testy as early voting looms. Eight weeks ago, Dan Crenshaw and Kevin … Continue reading

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April 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Here are the Q2 finance reports, here are the Q3 finance reports, here are the January 2018 finance reports, and here’s the FEC summary page for Democratic Congressional candidates in Texas. Let’s get to it. Todd Litton – CD02 Lori … Continue reading

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An article about Congressional race in Texas that doesn’t mention CD07

Who knew that was even legal? Several of the most truly competitive House races in the country are in Texas, which could wind up providing Democrats three or more of the 24 flipped seats that they need for control of … Continue reading

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The DCCC elsewhere in Texas

I’m OK with this. The U.S. House Democratic campaign arm may well be at war with another Texas Democrat. Lillian Salerno, a Democratic House candidate in the Dallas-based 32nd Congressional District, pushed out a fiery news release on Thursday afternoon … Continue reading

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2018 primary results: Congress

Statewide Dem totals Statewide GOP totals Harris County Dem totals Harris County GOP totals (Please note that all results were coming in very slowly. I expect there will still be some precincts not yet reported by the time this publishes. … Continue reading

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Trib overview of CD23 primary

Definitely a key race. Now, CD-23 is faced with its most crowded Democratic race in decades to determine who will duke it out in November in what is regularly ranked as one of the country’s most competitive districts. It spans … Continue reading

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The Socialists are coming

To a primary ballot near you. The revolution will be down-ballot. Or such is the implicit promise of Franklin Bynum’s campaign for Harris County misdemeanor court judge. A 35-year-old former public defender, Bynum said he’s seen Houston’s criminal courts routinely … Continue reading

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January 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Here are the Q2 finance reports, here are the Q3 finance reports, and here’s the FEC summary page for Democratic Congressional candidates in Texas. The Trib summarizes some of the highlights. For many Texas congressional races, Wednesday was the most … Continue reading

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More on the national wave of female candidates

As the second Women’s March was taking place yesterday, there were stories in two national publications about the plethora of women running for office this year. Here’s TIME Magazine: Erin Zwiener returned to Texas to settle down. At 32, she … Continue reading

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HuffPo on Gina Ortiz Jones

I do love national stories about our Congressional candidates. Gina Ortiz Jones thought she could work for President Donald Trump. When he won the presidency in November 2016, Jones, a career civil servant who served in the Air Force in … Continue reading

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How many more women are we likely to have in Congress next year?

Probably at least two, and more are possible. No freshman woman has come to Congress from Texas since Granger’s election 1996, with the exception of former U.S. Rep. Shelley Sekula Gibbs, who served as a placeholder for less than two … Continue reading

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Thoughts going into primary season

So primary season is officially open, with candidates pretty much everywhere. I’ve been busy doing interviews and will cover as many Democratic races as I can, but won’t get to them all. I may double back in the runoffs, we’ll … Continue reading

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Another look at Congressional odds

I was browsing around Facebook and came across a link to this 2018 midterm forecast from The Crosstab, whose proprietor also works at Decision Desk. As such, it is basically a December update to the November Decision Desk forecast, which … Continue reading

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Filing roundup: Other Congressional races, part 2

See part 1 here, and the spreadsheet with all the Democratic Congressional filings here. These are the races that are objectively most likely to produce a flip, so there are fewer of them. Let’s dive right in. CD06 So long, … Continue reading

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Republicans are worried about Culberson

They should be, though I bet they wish they didn’t have to be at this point in the cycle. Republican strategists are warning that some of the party’s veteran House incumbents aren’t adequately preparing for the 2018 election, putting the … Continue reading

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Early Congressional odds

Decision Desk provides an early view of the 2018 Congressional election. The 2018 House Midterm Election is bound to be one of the more interesting in recent memory. With Donald Trump in the White House, infighting on both sides of … Continue reading

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Opinions differ about Congressional prospects

I’m gonna boil this one down a bit. Moments before the polls closed in Virginia’s Democratic sweep, Houston-area Republican Ted Poe, across the Potomac River on Capitol Hill, announced his retirement in 2018 after 14 years in Congress. Poe cast … Continue reading

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October campaign finance reports: Congress

Here are the Q2 fundraising reports for Texas Democratic Congressional candidates. I’ll sum up the data below, but here’s the Trib with some highlights. After Democratic challengers outraised four Texas Republicans in Congress earlier this year, some Republicans recaptured fundraising … Continue reading

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No re-rematch for Gallego against Hurd

The third time is not a charm, mostly because there won’t be a third time. Former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, has decided not to try again to reclaim his old seat in Congress. “Know that my public service is … Continue reading

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Two more for CD23

Officially a crowd now. Jay Hulings, a federal prosecutor from San Antonio, said Sunday he could no wait no longer to launch a challenge to U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes. Hulings is an ally of the Castro brothers — U.S. … Continue reading

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Court invalidates CDs 27 and 35

We are one step closer to having a new Congressional map. Federal judges have invalidated two Texas congressional districts, ruling that they must be fixed by either the Legislature or a federal court. In a unanimous decision Tuesday, a three-judge … Continue reading

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