Tag Archives: Election 2016

Checking in on the national political atmosphere

Posted on June 13, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox, via G. Elliott Morris’ weekly email blast: Are Democrats doing as well as they were in 2017-2018? The plural of “anecdote” is not “data”, but that’s what special elections and the generic ballot are for. These numbers … Continue reading →

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In which I plead for a boon from national writers

Posted on June 11, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Dear national political writers: The former Texas congressman and one-time Senate hopeful has attended at least 67 Iowa town halls, driven nearly 3,000 miles across the state, and hired dozens of staffers there. He’s tall, white, charismatic, and handsome—traits that should serve … Continue reading →

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How Texas Republicans did not make their case to women this session

Posted on June 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

They did have a not-excessively-misogynist session, but see if you can spot what’s missing in this recap and preview story. Texas could have tried to beat Alabama to become the first state in the nation to ban all abortions this … Continue reading →

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Lineup shuffling at the DA’s office

Posted on May 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

This was a surprise. Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg’s top lieutenant is out the door after the latest staffing shake-up at an office already plagued by high turnover and ongoing retention problems. Tom Berg, a former defense attorney who … Continue reading →

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Where the Republicans think they’re vulnerable

Posted on April 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Always good to get the opposing perspective on these things. Eight House Republicans, including the three from districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, have been named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of incumbents expected to face tough … Continue reading →

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DCCC polls Trump in three target districts

Posted on April 22, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

News flash: Donald Trump is not very popular. Surveys the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently conducted found that 41 percent of voters approved of Trump’s job performance in Texas’ 24th congressional district, where Rep. Kenny Marchant serves, while 44 percent … Continue reading →

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Using Beto 2018 to project Beto 2020

Posted on April 15, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The NYT recently took a deep dive into the 2018 election data from Texas, and came out seeing a real swing state, partly because of Beto and partly for other reasons. Mr. O’Rourke’s close result wasn’t because of an exceptional … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 SBOE

Posted on April 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 State Board of Education positions, currently divided 10 GOP to 5 Dem. They’re bigger than State Senate and Congressional districts but no one raises any money for them so they’re basically decided by partisan turnout. As with … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 State House

Posted on March 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke won 76 State House districts. Out of 150. Which is a majority. Let me say that again so it can fully sink in. BETO O’ROURKE WON 76 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS. Remember that after the 2016 election, Democrats held … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: 2018 State Senate

Posted on March 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start … Continue reading →

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Ridiculously early Quinnipiac poll: Trump has a small lead

Posted on March 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Consider this to be for entertainment purposes only. In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. … Continue reading →

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On special election runoff turnout and HD125

Posted on February 19, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I figured a story like this was inevitable after Round One of the HD125 special election, in which Republican Fred Rangel got 38% of the vote and four Democrats combined to take the rest, with three of them being close … Continue reading →

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On to the runoff in HD125

Posted on February 13, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

We could still have a recount, given how close the race for second place was. A Republican and a Democrat are moving on to a runoff in the race to replace ex-state Rep. Justin Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, in a traditionally … Continue reading →

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Commissioners Court rejects Ogg’s request for more prosecutors

Posted on February 13, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I fully expected that Commissioners Court going from 4-1 Republican to 3-2 Democratic after the last election would signal big changes in how business was done in Harris County, but I didn’t expect this to be the first milestone on … Continue reading →

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Cornyn’s 2020 strategy

Posted on February 8, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. As the Texas GOP Party chairman from 2010 to 2015, Steve Munisteri warned that Republicans could no longer take the Lone Star State for granted and that the party needed to reach … Continue reading →

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Early voting ends in HD145

Posted on January 27, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Turnout ticked up considerably on Friday, which is an alternate headline for the one given to the Chron story. Early voting to fill state Sen. Carol Alvarado’s former seat in the Texas House ended Friday with just 1,528 ballots recorded, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Fort Bend

Posted on January 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Did you know that Fort Bend County went blue in 2018 as well? Of course you did. Let’s take a closer look at how that happened. Dist Cruz Beto Dikeman Cruz% Beto% Dike% ====================================================== HD26 32,451 33,532 406 48.88% 50.51% … Continue reading →

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The losers of 2018

Posted on December 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Allow me to point you to the Observer’s list of six Texas political players who lost power in 2018. I’d call it five-sixths of a good list, plus one entry I don’t quite understand. 3) Bexar County Democrats Want to … Continue reading →

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The Harris County GOP has not hit bottom yet

Posted on December 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have four thing to say about this. Drubbed. Shellacked. Whooped. Walloped. Routed. However you want to describe November’s midterm election, it was disastrous for Harris County Republicans. They were swept from the remaining countywide posts they held — the other shoe … Continue reading →

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The Russia-Texas-secession connection

Posted on December 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

So many people got played. A sprawling Russian disinformation campaign aimed at influencing the 2016 elections found success with social media accounts promoting the idea of Texas secession, according to a report commissioned by the U.S. Senate that was released … Continue reading →

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Rep. Joe Pickett to resign

Posted on December 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We will now need two special House elections to get to full membership. State Rep. Joe Pickett of El Paso will leave his post effective Jan. 4. Pickett, a Democrat, made the announcement Saturday morning that he will step down … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The two types of statewide candidates

Posted on December 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

When we look at the precinct data in Harris County, we can separate the statewide candidates into two groups. Here’s the first group: Dist Abbott Valdez Tipp Abbott% Valdez% Trump% Clinton% =============================================================== CD02 146,399 112,272 4,345 55.66% 43.40% 52.38% 43.05% … Continue reading →

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How Dems took Hays County

Posted on December 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Three cheers for Texas State University. As the dust settles after last week’s election, the political identity of Hays County hangs in the balance: Is it red or blue? The rapidly growing Central Texas suburban county — Texas’ 22nd-largest by … Continue reading →

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The changing tides in Central Texas

Posted on December 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

From the Statesman: Six Democrats came within 5 points or fewer in six Texas races, including three districts in Central Texas where Republicans traditionally win easily. Democrats now hold 13 of 36 Texas congressional seats. “This is about persistence. This … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Straight ticket voting by State Rep district

Posted on November 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

As advertised: Dist Str R Str D Str L Turnout Str R% Str D% Str L% Total ===================================================================== HD126 24,093 19,491 269 56,336 42.77% 34.60% 0.48% 77.84% HD127 34,178 19,157 312 69,198 49.39% 27.68% 0.45% 77.53% HD128 29,034 12,583 221 … Continue reading →

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Someone other than me notices CD24

Posted on November 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The closest race no one was paying attention to. Last week’s midterm elections showed that the Texas electorate is changing dramatically, and even Republicans who survived found themselves with surprisingly close calls after coasting to reelection for years. One U.S. … Continue reading →

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So you want to run for something in 2020

Posted on November 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You’re an ambitious Democrat in Harris County. You saw what happened these last two elections, and you think it’s your time to step up and run for office. What are your options that don’t involved primarying a Democratic incumbent? 1. … Continue reading →

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On straight tickets and undervotes

Posted on November 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

As we know, straight ticket voting in Texas is now officially a thing of the past. It will not be an option in 2020, the next time there will be partisan elections. Thanks to the success of Democratic candidates in … Continue reading →

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The decline and fall of the Republican Party in Harris County

Posted on November 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It can be summed up in this table: Dist Romney Trump Cruz =========================== HD126 62.1% 53.0% 51.5% HD127 69.2% 61.2% 59.5% HD128 72.4% 68.2% 66.8% HD129 64.5% 55.3% 54.0% HD130 75.9% 68.1% 66.0% HD132 58.9% 50.0% 47.9% HD133 68.1% 54.5% … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto does Harris County

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

He won pretty much everywhere you looked. So let’s look at the numbers: Dist Cruz Beto Dike Cruz% Beto% Trump% Clint% ============================================================= CD02 132,390 129,160 2,047 50.22% 49.00% 52.38% 43.05% CD07 112,078 129,781 1,843 45.99% 53.25% 47.11% 48.47% CD08 17,552 … Continue reading →

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The Fort Bend blue wave

Posted on November 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s not forget that what happened in Harris County happened in Fort Bend, too. Across the state, the “blue wave” that had long been a dream of the Democratic Party faithful failed to materialize in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with Republicans … Continue reading →

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How Lizzie Fletcher won

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Now, having flipped a seat controlled for the last 52 years by Republicans, [Rep.-elect Lizzie] Fletcher heads to Washington with a target on her back, but also a desire to legislate with … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts: Congress

Posted on November 15, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll be honest: I never felt particularly confident about winning CD07 or CD32. Not because Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred weren’t excellent candidates, or anything to do with the trends of the national environment or what have you. I just … Continue reading →

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