Tag Archives: HD105

Precinct analysis: Looking back at the 2012 landscape

PREVIOUSLY: State House 2022 We’ve had our first look at the way the new State House districts performed, and while we can expect the 2024 election to be a little different, it’s clear at this time that there aren’t many … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State House 2022

We have data. Texas Democrats and Republicans are beginning to gear up for a presidential election cycle in which opportunities to flip seats for Congress and the Legislature appear limited. It’s a natural outcome after Republicans redrew legislative and congressional … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State House district changes by demography

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: The median districts

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State House districts 2020, part 2

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: State House districts 2020, part 1

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

So now we start to prep for redistricting

It’s gonna make for a long session, or more likely sessions. Wielding the map-drawing power will not be entirely painless for Republicans, who have seen their grip on dozens of state and federal districts erode since the last round of … Continue reading

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30 Day 2020 campaign finance reports: State races, part 4

Last but not least, here are the 30-day finance reports from the 10 non-Houston-area seats that Dems flipped in 2018, plus four others of interest. Part One of my stroll through the 30-day finance reports, for statewide, SBOE, and State … Continue reading

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July 2020 campaign finance reports: State races, part 4

So yeah, after my previous entry I went and talked myself into checking on the finance reports from the 10 non-Houston-area seats that Dems flipped in 2018, plus four others of interest. It’s a sickness, I admit it, but here … Continue reading

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A slightly less rosy view of Democratic prospects

Here’s the latest race ratings from Texas Elects: Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. … Continue reading

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Does getting to 40% make you likely to win the runoff?

I was talking with some fellow political nerds last week, and one of the topics was the forthcoming runoffs. As is usually the case, this year we have some runoffs between candidates who finished fairly close together in round one, … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: 2018 State House

Beto O’Rourke won 76 State House districts. Out of 150. Which is a majority. Let me say that again so it can fully sink in. BETO O’ROURKE WON 76 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS. Remember that after the 2016 election, Democrats held … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Initial thoughts: The Lege

Live by the gerrymander, die by the gerrymander. At the end of the 2011 legislative session, state Rep. Rafael Anchia, a Dallas Democrat, sat down to dinner with a Republican colleague from the Texas House. Anchia was exhausted and incensed. … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Omnibus election report

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: Nine from Obama

I don’t know what the practical effect of this is, but I’m happy for the attention. Former President Barack Obama has backed nine more Democratic candidates in Texas as part of his second round of midterm endorsements. The nine candidates … Continue reading

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The Dallas County House battleground

Lot of seats in play here. [Julie] Johnson is among several Democratic candidates in Dallas hoping national and statewide talk of a blue wave will trickle down to several local state House races. A mix of Democratic enthusiasm this cycle, … Continue reading

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July 2018 campaign finance reports: State House

We’e seen a lot of very good campaign finance reports, all of which speak to the enthusiasm and engagement of Democrats this cycle. This batch of reports is not as good. These are July reports from State House candidates, take … Continue reading

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Court throws out State House map

Once more, with feeling. Parts of the Texas House map must be redrawn ahead of the 2018 elections because lawmakers intentionally discriminated against minorities in crafting several legislative districts, federal judges ruled on Thursday. A three-judge panel in San Antonio … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Dallas county elections

One more look at Dallas County, this time with the county-level judicial races. I like to use these partly because they’re a pretty good proxy for partisan preference, and partly because they provide a straight up two-party comparison, which is … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Dallas County statewides

Last time we looked at the Presidential numbers in Dallas County legislative districts (plus CD32). Today we follow up with a look at the statewide races. I’m going to throw a lot of numbers at you, so please bear with … Continue reading

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Precinct analysis: Dallas County Presidential numbers

News flash: Hillary Clinton won every Dallas County State Rep district. See for yourself: Dist Trump Clinton Johnson Stein ======================================== CD32 117,758 127,824 5,751 1,056 HD100 8,405 33,647 647 217 HD102 24,768 30,291 1,312 287 HD103 8,710 28,689 683 205 … Continue reading

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Anderson maintains lead after recount

It’s over. After a recount, state Rep. Rodney Anderson, R-Grand Prairie, is still the apparent winner in his re-election battle against Democrat Terry Meza. It was not immediately clear what the exact official outcome of the recount was, but the … Continue reading

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Recount in HD105

Still not decided yet. The tight Texas House District 105 race between Republican state Rep. Rodney Anderson and Democratic challenger Terry Meza is headed for a recount. Meza trails Anderson by 69 votes, according to the latest Dallas County elections … Continue reading

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HD105 race remains unresolved

I hadn’t realized this was still an open question. The ballots are still out in the race for Texas House district 105 between Republican Rep. Rodney Anderson and Democratic challenger Terry Meza. The race for the west Dallas County seat … Continue reading

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Initial thoughts: Statewide

See part 1 on Harris County here. The current statewide tally is Trump 52.39%, Clinton 43.34%. She received 3,848,617 votes to his 4,651,955. That’s an improvement of some 540K votes over Obama in 2012, which I certainly would have deemed … Continue reading

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Races I’ll be watching on Tuesday, Legislative edition

Here are the legislative races I’ll be looking at to see what kind of a day it has been for Texas Democrats. After the 2012 general election, the Dems had 55 seats in the Lege. Thee Democrats lost in 2014, … Continue reading

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Pokemon Go get votes

This is a smart idea. Lazaros Sanchez, 25, often ventures to the Capitol on his lunch break. “There’s Pokémon all over the place,” he observed late Thursday morning after catching a Pokémon called Eevee. Now politicians are jumping on the … Continue reading

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An early look ahead to the legislative races

The Trib takes a look at the legislative races that could end with a seat changing parties. • HD-23. Freshman state Rep. Wayne Faircloth, R-Dickinson, against former state Rep. Lloyd Criss, R-La Marque. • HD-43. State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, … Continue reading

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Redistricting update

From Russ Tidwell, writing at Letters from Texas: There is well-established case law around redistricting that calls for creating a new minority opportunity district anytime a compact majority of a single minority group can be established (i.e., majority Black or … Continue reading

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Once again with Anglo Dems and Anglo voters

Time once again for the biennial eulogy for Anglo Democrats in the Texas Legislature. When Donna Howard of Austin won a seat in the Texas House in 2006, she was the only white woman among Democrats in the state Legislature. … Continue reading

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A look at how Democratic legislative challengers did against the spread

It’s been long enough since the election that I feel like I can go back and look at some numbers. Not a whole lot of good out there, but we’ll try to learn what we can. To start off, here … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2014 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

The Battleground effect in legislative races

So here’s a crazy idea. Rather than judge Battleground Texas by our own beliefs about how things should have gone, what say we take a look at the actual numbers of a few races and see what they tell us? … Continue reading

Posted in Election 2014 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Final 2014 EV thoughts

Here’s the Chron story about how early voting went. “Each (side) is emphasizing areas of comparative advantage, but the overall pattern seems to be unimpressive in terms of overall turnout,” said Jim Henson, who directs the Texas Politics Project at … Continue reading

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The two Dallas districts to watch

There’s HD105: Hispanics make up 41 percent of Irving’s population — up from 31 percent in 2000 and 16 percent in 1990, when the white population topped 71 percent, according to figures from 2010, the latest available. White residents make … Continue reading

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